Article: Checking In On Playoff Races, World Series Odds

[Tom Froemming]

As we head into the final month of baseball’s regular season, Twins fans are stuck looking for September call-ups to get excited about as opposed to a postseason run. Still, we’re all baseball fans here, and come October I know I’m going to be watching a lot of the games despite the hometown nine being out of it. I thought it’d be a good time to run through the current standings and take a look at not only the playoff picture, but also speculate on which teams may be best suited for a World Series run.Before we get into the Fall Classic, let's take a look around at the odds teams actually make the postseason in the first place. Below are MLB.com's odds to make postseason. (All odds listed are as of the end of August.)

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston Red Sox 100%

Cleveland Indians 100%

Houston Astros 99.9%

New York Yankees 99.9%

Oakland Athletics 85.7%

Seattle Mariners 14.2%

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs 99.6%

Los Angeles Dodgers 74.2%

St. Louis Cardinals 67.4%

Atlanta Braves 66.7%

Milwaukee Brewers 64.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks 51.1%

Philadelphia Phillies 40.1%

Colorado Rockies 30.6%

 

As you can see, quite a bit has already been all but decided in the AL in terms of who is likely to qualify for postseason play, but out in the West the Astros lead the Athletics by just 2.5 games.Things are a lot more wide open in the NL. How is it possible that the Diamondbacks lead their division but have barely over a 50/50 chance to be in the playoffs? More on that in just a second. Let's take a look at some World Series odds next.

 

FanGraphs Odds to Win World Series

Houston Astros 26.1%

Boston Red Sox 16.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers 13.9%

Cleveland Indians 10.4%

Chicago Cubs 10.3%

New York Yankees 10.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks 3.0%

Oakland Athletics 1.8%

Atlanta Braves 1.7%

Milwaukee Brewers 1.7%

St. Louis Cardinals 1.5%

Philadelphia Phillies 1.5%

Colorado Rockies 1.1%

 

FanGraphs has the Astros as a clear favorite to repeat as World Series champions, but another nerdy baseball site has a much different view on things ...

 

Baseball Prospectus Odds to Win World Series

Boston Red Sox 14.7%

Chicago Cubs 14.4%

Cleveland Indians 13.2%

Atlanta Braves 12.0%

Houston Astros 10.7%

New York Yankees 8.1%

Los Angeles Dodgers 5.9%

Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1%

St. Louis Cardinals 4.9%

Milwaukee Brewers 4.1%

Oakland Athletics 2.1%

Philadelphia Phillies 2.1%

Colorado Rockies 1.6%

 

Houston is way down at fifth, but the biggest split between FanGraphs and Baseball Pro is with Atlanta. FanGraphs has them at just 1.7%, ninth overall, while B-Pro has them at 12.0%, fourth overall.

 

And how about the sportsbooks? When browsing all the lines at various online sportsbooks, it’s clear the Red Sox are the clear favorite, followed by the Astros and then things are pretty tight between the Yankees, Cubs and Cleveland.

 

Another fun resource in staying up to date on the playoff races is ESPN’s Hunt For October page. One of the things I find interesting is the average win percentage of remaining opponents is listed for each team. It looks like the Diamondbacks are going to have their work cut out for them.

 

The Twins keep me plenty busy enough, so I don't have a whole lot of time to keep up with the rest of the league, but I'd have to agree with the sportsbooks and say Boston is my favorite. Really going out on a limb, I know. They've got the best record in baseball and their roster is cluttered with stars, both in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

 

If I was to pick a dark horse, it would be Oakland (no offense to the NL). This A's team reminds me a lot of the recent Royals teams that did so well in the postseason. Their defense is tremendous and their bullpen is as deep as it is nasty. Kansas City showed that formula can really work in October.

 

Who's your pick as the favorite and your dark horse?

 

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[Winston Smith]

I don't see the Twins on there...

[jimmer]

Colorado leads the NL West by 1.5 games with 23 games left. The odds given they make the playoffs are, well, odd.

 

Anyone know the odds Vegas is giving right now on winning the NL West?

Edited September 6, 2018 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Colorado leads the NL West by 1.5 games with 23 games left. The odds given they make the playoffs are, well, odd.

 

Tom mentions that these odds were from the end of August. At that time, the Rockies were still in 3rd place, 1.5 games out (and 3.5 out in the wild card too). Fangraphs had their playoff odds at 21% then, and they are up to 48% today (where they lead the division as you mention, and are only a half game back of the wild card).

[jimmer]

Tom mentions that these odds were from the end of August. At that time, the Rockies were still in 3rd place, 1.5 games out (and 3.5 out in the wild card too). Fangraphs had their playoff odds at 21% then, and they are up to 48% today (where they lead the division as you mention, and are only a half game back of the wild card).

when tickets went on sale, I bought Rockies home tickets for their final series of the season against the Nats thinking these games will have real playoff consequences. Really hoping I feel well enough to go, cause I think it will come down to the very end with them.

[MN_ExPat]

We hope so too.   That could be a pretty good series (at least for Colorado).   You'll have to give us the lowdown on your observations .

[Otto von Ballpark]

when tickets went on sale, I bought Rockies home tickets for their final series of the season against the Nats thinking these games will have real playoff consequences. Really hoping I feel well enough to go, cause I think it will come down to the very end with them.

Pretty compelling games in the meantime too -- 7 game homestand vs the Dodgers and Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, and a 6 game road trip vs those same 2 clubs the following week.

 

If you've got MLB.TV and you can't stomach the Twins anymore, these look like some great games!

[jimmer]

Pretty compelling games in the meantime too -- 7 game homestand vs the Dodgers and Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, and a 6 game road trip vs those same 2 clubs the following week.

 

If you've got MLB.TV and you can't stomach the Twins anymore, these look like some great games!

even though I live in Utah, Rockies and Arizona are blacked out on MLB.TV. but I get them on RSN. And this is the first year I have ever watched more Rockies (my favorite NL team) than Twins.

[VATwinsFan]

Astros repeat as champs after beating the Cubbies in the WS.

[highlander]

Really not much in our summer of discontent.