56-26

[Loosey]

56 wins, 26 losses. 

 

This is the record the Twins need in order to achieve 91 wins this season.  91 wins is the amount of wins the Twins would need to win the division if Cleveland's 2nd half record were to be exactly the same as their first half record of 45-37. 

 

A daunting task.  Even more daunting when you figure Cleveland is likely disappointed with their 1st half start and is expected to play better in the 2nd half.  If so, 56-26 won't be good enough.

 

56-26 would be the best record in baseball right now, better than the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, and all NL Leaders by a lot.

 

I'm not saying it is impossible, but, well it's pretty close to impossible.  When you see 9.0 GB in the standings it seems as if there is a hope the ground could be made up.  However, when you use the most basic straight-line statistics methods and see 56-26, that hope goes away.

 

Happy Monday Everyone! 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

56-26 is a .683 winning percentage.

 

That's pretty much 2006 Twins level. On June 10, they fell to 27-34, then went 57-25 in their next 82 games. (Actually they were exactly at .683 after June 10, 69-32.)

[Loosey]

 

56-26 is a .683 winning percentage.

 

That's pretty much 2006 Twins level. On June 10, they fell to 27-34, then went 57-25 in their next 82 games. (Actually they were exactly at .683 after June 10, 69-32.)

Will history repeat itself?

[ashbury]

56-26 is a .683 winning percentage.

 

That's pretty much 2006 Twins level. On June 10, they fell to 27-34, then went 57-25 in their next 82 games. (Actually they were exactly at .683 after June 10, 69-32.)

That's also pretty much this year's Yankees and Red Sox level, in the first half.

 

Some team, perhaps, will have a second half about like that - it's the nature of half-seasons.

 

Do the Twins profile as a team that could do it? They have the horsepower, moreso than some other sub-.500 teams you could name; the trouble is, too much of that horsepower is in the shop, in tear-down mode on the shop floor in certain cases.

[ewen21]

 

That's also pretty much this year's Yankees and Red Sox level, in the first half.

 

Some team, perhaps, will have a second half about like that - it's the nature of half-seasons.

 

Do the Twins profile as a team that could do it? They have the horsepower, moreso than some other sub-.500 teams you could name; the trouble is, too much of that horsepower is in the shop, in tear-down mode on the shop floor in certain cases.

I don't believe we have the "horsepower"

I think we were mistaken to overrate a lot of players on this team

[by jiminy]

There is still a chance they could win the division but it involves a complete collapse by Cleveland.

 

Which is possible, if they have a rash of injuries and poor performances like we had in the first half, and all or most of our MIAs come back strong (Polanco, Santana, Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Mauer, Kepler, etc.).

 

I'm fine with saying the season is realistically over; Fangraphs puts our playoff odds at 1.6%, which seems about right. This does not look like our year, to say the least.

 

But I don't agree that our only path to the playoffs would be to go 56-26. If Cleveland and Minnesota swapped their first half records in the second half, we would be tied and have a one-game playoff. There's no way we're going 56-26, but if Cleveland goes 35-45, we only have to go 45-37.

 

The odds are low enough we should focus on next year and sell anything not tied down. But it's not impossible. Teams have suffered horrible rashes of injuries before.

[Riverbrian]

 

That's also pretty much this year's Yankees and Red Sox level, in the first half.

 

Some team, perhaps, will have a second half about like that - it's the nature of half-seasons.

 

Do the Twins profile as a team that could do it? They have the horsepower, moreso than some other sub-.500 teams you could name; the trouble is, too much of that horsepower is in the shop, in tear-down mode on the shop floor in certain cases.

 

If they are able to do it. They need to do addition by a whole lotta subtraction style. Harder to do for sure but not impossible since some of that subtraction is the reason why we are where we are.

 

It can't be ruled out that the team could improve after Dozier is traded but a long shot that it will improve enough to reach the lofty heights needed. 

 

I'm locked into 2019 and beyond right now. 

 

 

[Brandon]

A lot of things will have to break right for that to happen.

 

Polanco will have to hit the ground running.

 

Sano and Buxton will have to return soon and hit at their capabilities.

 

Garver and Astrudillo will need to hit and play passable defense at C.

 

We need production out of Morrison in the .800 OPS range minimum moving forward and Grossman to get on base at a .360 + clip moving forward.

 

Mauer to hit doubles and get on base at .360+ clip as well.

 

A little better consistancy out of our 3, 4, & 5 starters.

 

And no new injuries or player issues moving forward.

 

I think if all this happens we have a 50/50 shot. But I optimistically give this a 10 percent maybe 20 percent chance all things will go the Twins way moving forward.

 

Because the Twins have so many game left against Cleveland, I will wait up to 2-3 weeks to see where the team is going and how Sano and Buxton are doing. But I am leaning strongly towards selling so we can race to tje bottom for more top draft picks.

[Respy]

 

A lot of things will have to break right for that to happen.

Polanco will have to hit the ground running.

Sano and Buxton will have to return soon and hit at their capabilities.

Garver and Astrudillo will need to hit and play passable defense at C.

We need production out of Morrison in the .800 OPS range minimum moving forward and Grossman to get on base at a .360 + clip moving forward.

Mauer to hit doubles and get on base at .360+ clip as well.

A little better consistancy out of our 3, 4, & 5 starters.

And no new injuries or player issues moving forward.

I think if all this happens we have a 50/50 shot. But I optimistically give this a 10 percent maybe 20 percent chance all things will go the Twins way moving forward.

 

All this, plus we need to win more 1-run ballgames.

 

And we need to win a majority of our 10 remaining games against Cleveland.

 

 

[Dantes929]

Kind of reminds me of the when I was in Kimball and asked how to get to Foley.   Might just be a Stearns County joke but the answer I got was "You can't get to Foley from here.  First you have to go to St. Cloud.".  Same thing kind of applies here.   How can we get to 91-71 from 35-45?  We can't.    First we have to win 8 out of 10.    Or we have to get back to .500.   These kinds of comebacks are why I watch baseball but odds are odds.   Its unlikely and you can't overcome 5% odds consistently.    What I am hoping for this season is reasons to have faith in Buxton, Sano, Polanco, etc. for next year.     Of course if they provide reasons to have faith it will also probably be reflected in the record.