Article: Week in Review: Cooked

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Dozier, do you really believe the Twins plan to sign him to a QO? They haven't given any indication at all that they would like him beyond this year. And his performance has been terrible thus far in 2018. So maybe it would just be a one-year deal, but it would be an expensive one-year deal. I'm just not so sure they do that. I don't know that I would do that.

Didn't mean a qualifying offer, just a potential one-year re-sign. Depends on a lot of factors, of course, but I imagine the odds decrease if we deal him.

[Jham]

Trading for "whatever you can get" signals desperation which may well cost you in future trade negotiations. Being willing to hold an expiring contact is really the only leverage we have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In the case of Rodney, a 2019 option would make him a more attractive candidate on the trade market because it means they have an extra year of control. Relievers tend to get the most return at the deadline because contending teams typically can always use an extra arm in the bullpen. Age works against Rodney a bit, but he could definitely fetch a return. 

There are also a lot of relievers being sold at the deadline. I don't think relievers tend to get the most return, although there have been a few exceptions -- studs like Chapman and Miller, of course, and I guess Matt Capps way back in the day.

 

I wouldn't expect any of the Twins current relievers to fetch more than, say, Chi-Wei Hu circa 2015, or Tyler Watson circa 2017.

 

Rodney's extra year of control might be more valuable to the Twins than to a lot of acquiring teams. For as cheap as he signed last offseason, and as old as he is, and as little non-closing experience as he has recently, his extra year is probably less valuable overall than most.

[ChrisKnutson]

Does anyone think trading Gibby to the Yankees would be worth it if it meant getting back either Brandon Drury, Justus Sheffield, or Dillion Tate?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does anyone think trading Gibby to the Yankees would be worth it if it meant getting back either Brandon Drury, Justus Sheffield, or Dillion Tate?

Definite no to Drury, probably no to Tate as well.

 

Probably yes to Sheffield (even if I think some of his prospect ranking might be Yankee hype), but I don't think the Yankees offer that. The same reasons we'd want to deal Gibson (age, career performance) are the same reasons the Yankees probably wouldn't want him at that price.

[KirbyDome89]

I don't see any upside in holding onto expiring contracts that could potentially be moved. Every transaction between opposing clubs occurs on an individual level. Each side does their own valuation and based on that a deal is struck or each side walks away. The Twins aren't going to suddenly receive better offers down the line because they refused to trade Lynn in 18'. IMO refusing to move on from expiring contracts in a year when the team clearly isn't going to compete is consciously declining a cost free opportunity to improve the future of the team, even if that chance of improvement is slim. 

 

Not that I wanted this situation to arise, but the Twins aren't competing this year. Even if the (likely) return is a handful of lottery tickets, why not at least see if they can cash in rather than watch those players walk for nothing. Who cares how many holes the roster has for the last 2 months? At this point their concern should be draft position and player development. Period. 

[mazeville]

 

There are also a lot of relievers being sold at the deadline. I don't think relievers tend to get the most return, although there have been a few exceptions -- studs like Chapman and Miller, of course, and I guess Matt Capps way back in the day.

 

I wouldn't expect any of the Twins current relievers to fetch more than, say, Chi-Wei Hu circa 2015, or Tyler Watson circa 2017.

 

Rodney's extra year of control might be more valuable to the Twins than to a lot of acquiring teams. For as cheap as he signed last offseason, and as old as he is, and as little non-closing experience as he has recently, his extra year is probably less valuable overall than most.

 

Well, in any event, you peruse the market. If you feel you can contend next year, then you demand a relatively high price for someone like Rodney and if you can't get that price, you keep him. 

 

But I'm not sure I agree with you on this. Rodney has performed quite well this season and I believe he would fetch a good enough price on the market to make it attractive.

 

Part of my problem here is, I just don't know that the Twins can contend next year, either. The biggest issue here is that Sano and Buxton aren't playing to their capabilities. Until they do this entire conversation is moot. The entire rebuild is hinged on at least one of those two meeting expectations. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't see any upside in holding onto expiring contracts that could potentially be moved. Every transaction between opposing clubs occurs on an individual level. Each side does their own valuation and based on that a deal is struck or each side walks away. The Twins aren't going to suddenly receive better offers down the line because they refused to trade Lynn in 18'.

Not "suddenly", no, but I think there could be effects. If I'm targeting a Royals reliever next summer, I'm probably less willing to increase my "best" offer to them (or even make my "best" offer to them) if I feel like they undersold Herrera this summer. If a few teams feel the same way, it quite possibly depresses or at least delays his market.

 

Unless you're actually getting something you want -- a prospect you care about, or playing time for a player that is genuinely blocked -- it certainly doesn't help you to deal just to make a deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, in any event, you peruse the market. If you feel you can contend next year, then you demand a relatively high price for someone like Rodney and if you can't get that price, you keep him. 

 

But I'm not sure I agree with you on this. Rodney has performed quite well this season and I believe he would fetch a good enough price on the market to make it attractive.

 

Part of my problem here is, I just don't know that the Twins can contend next year, either. The biggest issue here is that Sano and Buxton aren't playing to their capabilities. Until they do this entire conversation is moot. The entire rebuild is hinged on at least one of those two meeting expectations. 

What price is "good enough" for you to trade Rodney? Could you find any examples from past deadlines? There's a lot of reliever for nondescript prospect kind of deals...

 

Obviously Sano and Buxton could help, but I don't think we "need" them to contend next year. Per B-Ref, would could be 2.5 wins better this year just with an average bullpen. We could be gain another win or 2 just from Pythag / BaseRuns luck. That's like a .500 record without any improvement in the lineup or starting rotation, which is usually enough to keep one in the mix for the 2nd wild card if not the division.

 

Keep in mind "contend" is a much lower threshold than clear favorite or anything like that. I don't think we want to be too reckless about selling just because we won't be anyone's favorite in 2019.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Not "suddenly", no, but I think there could be effects. If I'm targeting a Royals reliever next summer, I'm probably less willing to increase my "best" offer to them (or even make my "best" offer to them) if I feel like they undersold Herrera this summer. If a few teams feel the same way, it quite possibly depresses or at least delays his market.

 

Unless you're actually getting something you want -- a prospect you care about, or playing time for a player that is genuinely blocked -- it certainly doesn't help you to deal just to make a deal.

I get that, but I think every team is trying to give up as little as possible while also bringing in as much as possible in every transaction so I don't feel like the Twins dumping guys with less than one year remaining now, even if it is selling low, will have an impact on offers they receive down the line. 

 

Like I said, each side does their own valuation and determines what their piece is worth, and what they're willing to give up to obtain their desired target. If the Twins feel a "best offer," isn't enough there's nothing stopping them from walking away if selling low has negative ramifications. I just don't see that as the case in this instance.  

[mazeville]

 

What price is "good enough" for you to trade Rodney? Could you find any examples from past deadlines? There's a lot of reliever for nondescript prospect kind of deals...

 

Obviously Sano and Buxton could help, but I don't think we "need" them to contend next year. Per B-Ref, would could be 2.5 wins better this year just with an average bullpen. We could be gain another win or 2 just from Pythag / BaseRuns luck. That's like a .500 record without any improvement in the lineup or starting rotation, which is usually enough to keep one in the mix for the 2nd wild card if not the division.

 

Keep in mind "contend" is a much lower threshold than clear favorite or anything like that. I don't think we want to be too reckless about selling just because we won't be anyone's favorite in 2019.

 

It's hard for me to answer on what kind of return would be adequate. I'd probably expect a pair of decent prospects for him and if I can't get that, then I probably don't do it. 

 

I won't argue that the Twins' problem this season has been luck to an extent. Buxton's regression this season has probably cost the team about four wins and probably more than that given that the team has had to trot out guys like Robbie Grossman in the outfield. 

 

So who would it be then? Escobar is a free agent. Dozier is probably gone next year. Mauer probably retires but is a shadow of what he once was. Maybe Max Kepler can finally put things together and maybe Polanco plays like he did in the second half of last year. 

 

But none of those guys have the potential that Buxton and Sano do. If those two are both playing to their capabilities this season it's no exaggeration to say they'd be right behind Cleveland and we're not having this conversation. 

 

Bad luck or not, this team has no chance this season. So you make an assessment of your team and its chances for next year and you trade players based on that. It's just hard for me to see this team contending next year, however, without one of those two players anchoring that team. 

[gocgo]

 

I believe there are a lot of bandwagons in town now for those departing the Twins depot.  This week was crushing.  Because it was two Chicago teams this was also personal - Chicago versus Minneapolis (I think St Paul has successfully moved to Saints and United territory).  Luckily I live much closer to Duluth. 

 

If it looked like we had some fight in us it would not be so bad. But we blew the low scoring games and then to even things out we blew the high scoring games.  Where do I look for my Twins solace?  When I hear that we are only half way through the season and a lot can happen yet, it almost sounds like a threat.

 

Does anyone else get that personality switch when listening to the games.  That point where you start to root for the other team because your team is looking so bad and you almost wish they would just collapse so that you could move on?  Thanks to the Central division standings we have a flimsy false hope. 

 

The Minnesota Twins are 35 - 45 in the AL Central which puts them 9 games behind Cleveland and 1/2 game ahead of Detroit in a division with only one team playing winning baseball.

 

In the American League East we would be 18 1/2 games out and in fifth place vying with the Orioles - who we get to play this week - for the worst.

 

In the National League Central where the Cubs play (and they are in second place) we would be 11.5 out and almost tied with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

In the NL West we would only be 10 games out and almost tied with San Diego for last place.

 

The AL West has a nice race and based on the previous posts the bandwagons are headed to Seattle.  In that race we would be 17.5 out and behind the Texas  Rangers for last place.

 

The NL East has those throw in the towel Marlins so maybe we have a chance.  The Marlins are 15.5 games out in last place with a 34 - 51 record!  One less win, six more losses.  I guess we could play in this division - even though we would be 13.5 out and in fourth place.

 

In AL overall standings we are in 11th place with the only teams behind us being the rest of our division (except Cleveland) and those, bring'em on Orioles!  Of course those Orioles are wringing their hands in anticipation too since their division includes the Red Sox and Yankees, the Rays and the Jays.  Minnesota plays in a division with teams that rank 5,12,13,14 and Orioles division ranks 1,2,7, and 9.

 

In the combined league standings we rank #22! with the Tigers, Padres, and Reds within one game of us.

 

I offer this uplifting holiday special because I still hear questions about buy or sell.  I do not want to get rid of everyone, but do sell for the future.  Do not pretend we still have a real chance in 2018.

I read the other day what the AL Central was against the rest of the AL...are you ready for this?  67-122.  Let that sink in for a bit.  Now consider that the Twins are 9 games back of the division leader who are 13-20 against the rest of the AL East/West.  That should put into perspective just how bad this team really is.  We are 9 games back in an really really bad division.

[bighat]

 

Yes/Sure, it means doing something to get more controllable talent. Which we don't have a much of if Buxton and/or Sano bust.

 

I think we are very, very close to having Buxton officially be a "bust". Sano might be OK in the long run but I think Byron's on the brink of playing himself out of the major leagues for good. Very sad stuff.

[ChrisKnutson]

Definite no to Drury, probably no to Tate as well.

 

Probably yes to Sheffield (even if I think some of his prospect ranking might be Yankee hype), but I don't think the Yankees offer that. The same reasons we'd want to deal Gibson (age, career performance) are the same reasons the Yankees probably wouldn't want him at that price.

Besides controllability, I don’t see much of a difference between Toronto’s J.A Happ and Gibson. And looking at it from NY’s perspective Gibby does seem more appealing because he won’t cost both Sheffield and Clint Frazier. In terms of the market, the only better option would be to overpay even more for Cole Hamels, who likely won’t have the same impact as Verlander did last year. At least start the conversation with Gibby for Sheffield, and maybe Drury, and see where it goes.