Help is on the Way! Twins Sign Matt Belisle!

[jud6312]

 

And no one is likely to miss Belisle terribly.

Molly and the Wonder Twins apparently did.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd assume because you want to have him pitching regularly in AAA rather than sitting at the end of the bench sopping up innings?

Thinking about this further, this is really a stretch. Duffey is 27 years old and has extensive AAA/MLB experience. Busenitz has less MLB inexperience, but still 35 innings, and he turns 28 in August. Both are only a year younger than Magill. These guys are DFA candidates no later than this offseason, no reason to let them percolate endlessly at AAA anymore just to shield them from some MLB mop-up/bench time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At the same time, part of being a GM is working through the retreads to find something useful. Yeah it goes poorly but you get a Jake Arietta sometimes.

 

I'm glad they like relief arms over utility infielders. Nick Punto is probably the upside of reclaimed utility guy. At least relief arms have a chance to become important parts.

Maybe I was too harsh in my response to this yesterday -- like Arrieta, Belisle is also a former top 100 prospect. Of course, that was back in 2001-2002...

 

On the other hand, Nick Punto upside might be pretty valuable -- remember the Dodgers took on something like $258 mil in guaranteed contracts to acquire him in August 2012!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Maybe I was too harsh in my response to this yesterday -- like Arrieta, Belisle is also a former top 100 prospect. Of course, that was back in 2001-2002...

 

On the other hand, Nick Punto upside might be pretty valuable -- remember the Dodgers took on something like $258 mil in guaranteed contracts to acquire him in August 2012!

 

Nick Punto really is amazing. He made $23 million over a 14 year career ($6200 per plate appearance) with a career OPS+ of 78. He had one year over 100 OPS+ (125, the ultimate outlier and only in 166 plate appearance). How did he last so long? How did he get teams to pay him once he wasn't cheap? It would be like Adrianza playing another 8-10 years. Batty.

[ThejacKmp]

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0

[USAFChief]

Yeah. But I think if they had a decent pen, they might have stuck with Matt a bit longer

??

 

Usually, the simplest explanation is the one to default to.

 

This is about nothing but Cleveland deciding, for the second time, that Belisle couldn’t help them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nick Punto really is amazing. He made $23 million over a 14 year career ($6200 per plate appearance) with a career OPS+ of 78. He had one year over 100 OPS+ (125, the ultimate outlier and only in 166 plate appearance). How did he last so long? How did he get teams to pay him once he wasn't cheap? It would be like Adrianza playing another 8-10 years. Batty.

Punto was playing middle infield and putting up some very good defensive numbers throughout, plus a few extra runs by baserunning. 15.4 bWAR, 15.1 fWAR for his career.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Elite is incorrect and overstated, you're right. But those two seasons are some really nice numbers and they're back-to-back. I don't think it's a stretch to think he might have something else left. Depends how they use him; we should wait before we riot.

 

EDIT: Looked into 2016 a bit further. He started out the year getting 7th and 8th inning games that were relatively close but then hit the DL for 6 weeks. When he came back he seemed to have been passed by a guy or two but still pitched meaningful innings. He really started pitching much earlier when the contending Nationals traded for Melancon and Rzepczynksi at the deadline. So perhaps 2016 lower-leverage innings is more the result of being with a better team than anything else. FWIW, his ERA was pretty steadily around 2.00 throughout the season.

Belisle's 2015 season was so good, he didn't get a MLB contract offer that offseason either. I guess he missed time to injury in 2015, but he was apparently healthy and active to finish the season in September.

 

So the past 3 years, the only MLB team to offer Matt Belisle a MLB contract is the Twins, and we've done it twice. We've also given him the highest base salary ($2.05 guaranteed last year, compared to the $1.5 mil and $1.25 mil non-guaranteed deals he signed with Cleveland and Washington, respectively).

 

The 2015 Cardinals and 2016 Nationals also both declined to put Belisle on their postseason rosters. The 2015 Cardinals chose RHP Maness with a 4.26 ERA (and 6.75 in September) over Belisle and his 2.67. The 2016 Nationals elected to roster rookie Reynaldo Lopez, of the 4.91 ERA and 5 pro career relief appearances, and 3 lefty relievers, including two with ERAs of 4.53 and 4.95, over Belisle and his sterling 1.76 ERA.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah. But I think if they had a decent pen, they might have stuck with Matt a bit longer. He wasn't pitching all that badly and the sample size was tiny. But sometimes you need change just to have change. And no one is likely to miss Belisle terribly.

So he's good enough to stick in a good pen, but not a bad one?

Am I the only one who thinks that is backwards?

[yarnivek1972]

So he's good enough to stick in a good pen, but not a bad one?

Am I the only one who thinks that is backwards?

Apparently Falvine doesn’t think it is backwards.

[ThejacKmp]

 

So he's good enough to stick in a good pen, but not a bad one?
Am I the only one who thinks that is backwards?

 

My point is that bad bullpens don't have the ability to rest a struggling guy while other guys step up (like the Twins did with Hildy in April when he sucked). There's no one to lean on. They're more likely to jettison someone who might be expected to bounce back because they're looking for anyone who can help now. Especially a team that is expected to contend but is struggling.

 

Again, not arguing that Matt Belisle is amazing or a savior. Just that the sample size this year is small and Cleveland jettisoning him may say more about the current state of Cleveland's bullpen than Matt Belisle's outlook for the rest of the year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Apparently Falvine doesn’t think it is backwards.

Where did you see Falvine quoted as saying what I responded to?

 

My comment wasn't in reference to us signing him.

It was in response to the theory that you have to be better to stick in an awful bullpen than you do to stick in a good bullpen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, the Indians cut Belisle to add Ben Taylor to their roster. Taylor is a 25 year old RH reliever with some potential and options remaining.

 

And the Indians cut Belisle only 6 days after placing Miller on the DL, and just a day before moving Salazar to the 60-day DL and placing Nick Goody on the DL too. They DFA'd two other players including another reliever just 2 days later. Belisle wasn't really forced off their roster for reasons other than performance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My point is that bad bullpens don't have the ability to rest a struggling guy while other guys step up (like the Twins did with Hildy in April when he sucked). There's no one to lean on. They're more likely to jettison someone who might be expected to bounce back because they're looking for anyone who can help now. Especially a team that is expected to contend but is struggling.

 

Again, not arguing that Matt Belisle is amazing or a savior. Just that the sample size this year is small and Cleveland jettisoning him may say more about the current state of Cleveland's bullpen than Matt Belisle's outlook for the rest of the year.

This would be a more compelling theory if the Indians didn't repeatedly pass on Belisle over the last month-plus. You're telling me they believed he would bounce back, but couldn't find a way to add him back to their pen during a month when they added and subtracted like 5 other marginal relievers, including the ghost of Alexi Ogando?

[clone52]

Belisle sucks for Cleveland

Cleveland cuts Belisle

Twins coaches tell management that Belisle's mechanics are screwed up and it is the same issue they fixed in June of that year.

Management signs Belisle

 

Not saying thats what happened, but its completely feasible that the Twins coaches saw something on his film this year that they know they can fix.

 

If we get Belisle like he was from June to the end of the year last year, we have a tremendous asset.

If we get Belisle like he was from June to July last year, we have a trade piece.

If Belisle just flat out sucks, we don't really lose out on anything.

[yarnivek1972]

Belisle sucks for Cleveland

Cleveland cuts Belisle

Twins coaches tell management that Belisle's mechanics are screwed up and it is the same issue they fixed in June of that year.

Management signs Belisle

 

Not saying thats what happened, but its completely feasible that the Twins coaches saw something on his film this year that they know they can fix.

 

If we get Belisle like he was from June to the end of the year last year, we have a tremendous asset.

If we get Belisle like he was from June to July last year, we have a trade piece.

If Belisle just flat out sucks, we don't really lose out on anything.

Other than not having an infielder readily available if someone gets hurt for roughly a month.

[Doomtints]

 

From the AP.

 

Twins relievers rank 21st in the major leagues with a 4.15 ERA.

 

 

 

Including pitchers who are no longer on the roster, sure, why not. But why include those people?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Including pitchers who are no longer on the roster, sure, why not. But why include those people?

Do you want to apply that criteria to all 30 teams?

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah every team has bad relievers that they've demoted or released.

I'd imagine the removal of the dead weight mostly evens out across the league, and if re ranked for current personnel, the rankings would be roughly the same order.

[Doomtints]

 

Do you want to apply that criteria to all 30 teams?

 

Of course........

[Doomtints]

 

 

Yeah every team has bad relievers that they've demoted or released.
I'd imagine the removal of the dead weight mostly evens out across the league, and if re ranked for current personnel, the rankings would be roughly the same order.

 

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

 

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

 

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.

Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

 

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

 

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?

[yarnivek1972]

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

 

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

 

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

 

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.

Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

 

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

 

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?

One problem with that method. By subtracting guys not currently part of the relief core, you are also subtracting the guys who would be coming up from AAA- Curtiss, Busenitz, Moya, Duffey and even Littell or Slegers.

[Doomtints]

 

One problem with that method. By subtracting guys not currently part of the relief core, you are also subtracting the guys who would be coming up from AAA- Curtiss, Busenitz, Moya, Duffey and even Littell or Slegers.

 

That's not a "problem with the method." Players in the minors are opportunity costs. They are not the current state of the team and they might never be used. If at some point they are used, you adjust the numbers.

 

These same players are NOT on the team any longer because of those same opportunity costs. The method applies to both scenarios.

[Mr. Brooks]

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

 

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

 

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

 

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.

Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

 

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

 

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?

You still aren't applying that to all 30 teams.

You are just using a gut feeling of where they'd rank.

[clone52]

 

Other than not having an infielder readily available if someone gets hurt for roughly a month.

 

Well, you can always use Sano and shuffle things around.  Even if he's DHing, thats only part of a game that you are without a DH.  If someone does get hurt, you can always call back Petit the next day.

 

I find it a little funny that the argument is that the team needs Adrianza, Petit and Escobar on the roster.

 

Not to mention, that probably won't be an issue for all that long.  There is really no need for both Cave and Lamarre to be on the active roster (Mauer probably takes one of their spots) and they'll drop a relief pitcher at some point.