2018 Vikings Off-Season Thread

[TheLeviathan]

Right, in the NFL the second most valuable commodity is probably pass-rusher. Look no further than the price tag the Saints paid to get one in the draft.

[Mr. Brooks]

Let's say hunter was a patriot and a free agent this offseason. If the Vikings wanted to sign him they would probably have to go somewhere near 18 million dollars a year. To get him for 14 a year in his prime is a bargain.

 

I know the sack numbers are down but the pressure numbers were still good and this defense needs book end pass rushers. The alternative to not signing this deal is just not palatable IMO. But you're right we do need to see more from him to really make this deal what I think it can be be.

$18 million per would make him the highest paid defensive end in football, by a lot.

I don't understand how you can think someone makes him the highest paid DE in all of football.

 

Even this contract makes him the 7th highest paid DE in football.

Can anyone present a statistical argument that he's a top 7 DE in the league right now?

Not a youth/potential based argument. I've acknowledged that he's worth that if he hits his enormous potential.

 

Hurries are certainly nice, better than a clean pocket, but not nearly as valuable as a sack.

Being hurried into an incompletion is certainly a win for the defense, but it's not the catastrophic drive killer that a sack is.

[Mike Sixel]

I was hoping for more in the 9-10 range, frankly.

[TheLeviathan]

He would be a 24 year old FA. And a pass rusher witha pretty good track record.

Yes, someone wouldve made him a Top 3 paid DE.

 

We literally just made Cousins number one for QBs and there is no valid statistical case for that either.

 

That's not how FA works, so it's a really poor way to frame the signing.

[Mr. Brooks]

He would be a 24 year old FA. And a pass rusher witha pretty good track record.

Yes, someone wouldve made him a Top 3 paid DE.

 

We literally just made Cousins number one for QBs and there is no valid statistical case for that either.

 

That's not how FA works, so it's a really poor way to frame the signing.

Agree to disagree, I guess.

Cousins has way more track record, both in duration and accomplishments.

Hunter has averaged 8.5 sacks per year. Solid, nowhere near exceptional. This contract is for potential, not career to date results, IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

Ansah: 26.5 sacks the last three years, highest paid DE. Older than Hunter.

 

Hunter last three years: 25.5 sacks.

 

FA would've paid him at least another 10M. Probably more even if he has 8 sacks next year. If he puts up 10-12 that number jumps more.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ansah: 26.5 sacks the last three years, highest paid DE. Older than Hunter.

 

Hunter last three years: 25.5 sacks.

 

FA would've paid him at least another 10M. Probably more.

Franchise tagging a guy is a lot different than a 5 year contract.

[TheLeviathan]

Franchise tagging a guy is a lot different than a 5 year contract.

It's a reflection of value however.

 

Have you looked at the other top DEs? Like JPP and Vernon? I'm guessing not. Context is key here.

 

14.4 for Hunter IS a bargain. If Vernon can get 17, I might be way under projecting Hunter. Vernon got 5/85 with less sack cred, two years older, and less athleticism. Yeah, a bargain.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's a reflection of value however.

 

Have you looked at the other top DEs? Like JPP and Vernon? I'm guessing not. Context is key here.

 

14.4 for Hunter IS a bargain. If Vernon can get 17, I might be way under projecting Hunter. Vernon got 5/85 with less sack cred, two years older, and less athleticism. Yeah, a bargain.

Vernon had the exact same sack total the previous 3 years before he signed his contract. Why did he have less sack cred?

 

Maybe your right. He just doesn't feel like a top 7 DE right now. Perhaps 8.5 sacks is more than it used to be.

Where does that total rank over the last 3 years?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Vernon had the exact same sack total the previous 3 years before he signed his contract. Why did he have less sack cred?

Maybe your right. He just doesn't feel like a top 7 DE right now. Perhaps 8.5 sacks is more than it used to be.
Where does that total rank over the last 3 years?

 

Well, I feel like Vernon's one high sack year was further removed.  I can't find a good place to track pressures, so that point may have been overstated.

 

Last three years (Unofficial, I may have missed someone)

 

Jones: 40.5

Mack:36.5

Miller:34.5

Kerrigan:33.5

Griffen: 31.5

Jordan:30.5

Donald:30

Wake:29

Ingram:29

Campbell: 28

Ansah:26.5

Hunter 25.5

 

Hunter ranks 12th the last three years.  He's also the only player who was a rookie in any of those three seasons.  And the youngest by several years.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess this thread will be more interesting/meaningful a lot sooner than I'd hoped this year. sigh.

 

and you've convinced me that 12-14 is probably his price.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, I feel like Vernon's one high sack year was further removed. I can't find a good place to track pressures, so that point may have been overstated.

 

Last three years (Unofficial, I may have missed someone)

 

Jones: 40.5

Mack:36.5

Miller:34.5

Kerrigan:33.5

Griffen: 31.5

Jordan:30.5

Donald:30

Wake:29

Ingram:29

Campbell: 28

Ansah:26.5

Hunter 25.5

 

Hunter ranks 12th the last three years. He's also the only player who was a rookie in any of those three seasons. And the youngest by several years.

Ok, well if those rankings are accurate, then yeah I guess that's probably the right place.

Some of those guys are 3-4 linebackers as well, which moves Hunter up even higher for just his position.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, if you take out Donald as a DT and the OLB he is right in line.  But the more I look at a few of the recent contracts I think Hunter could've had a shot at 6/100 in FA if he had gone that route.  So I see this as good value.

[DocBauer]

Diggs has to be next.

 

Where does that leave Barr is the question.

 

Especially considering the Vikings are considering matches that will allow him to rush and be even more disruptive than before. (Something I've wondered before as to why not?)

 

You simply can't keep everyone with a cap, even one that rises annually. But I have a hunch that the Collins signing will be fluid. Meaning a good year for him, and the team, and he will re-work his deal with incentives and years to lower his yearly number to help with a signing or two.

[TheLeviathan]

Barr is gone and more easily replaced IMO.

[Vanimal46]

Barr is gone and more easily replaced IMO.

Agreed. He's the guy I'd want on a 1 year prove it deal every season. Since he had 'coasting' issues in the past I'd be hesitant giving him long term security.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Agreed. He's the guy I'd want on a 1 year prove it deal every season. Since he had 'coasting' issues in the past I'd be hesitant giving him long term security.

 

Not to mention the durability issues.  He's an amazing pass defender at LB and we would miss his skill-set and size at the position....but LB is generally undervalued in the draft.  You can replace him with a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

 

Now, if we started using him as a pass rusher and he was good at it...that's a different story.

[SF Twins Fan]

Seems pretty solid to me.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Agreed. He's the guy I'd want on a 1 year prove it deal every season. Since he had 'coasting' issues in the past I'd be hesitant giving him long term security.

Not to mention the durability issues.  He's an amazing pass defender at LB and we would miss his skill-set and size at the position....but LB is generally undervalued in the draft.  You can replace him with a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

 

Now, if we started using him as a pass rusher and he was good at it...that's a different story.

First, kudos for me to maybe figuring out, finally, hopefully, how to do multiple quotes. (Believe it or not I'm actually a highly intelligent person who works with technology and the audio/video industry for most of my life, but I'm just naive and uneducated enough to be dangerous in anything relating to computers and the net).

 

I like both posts here a lot!

 

I remain a believer in the 4-3 scheme, overall, though there are teams who make a 3-4 work very well. But your personnel has to be flipped tremendously to do so.

 

In a true 4-3, I absolutely agree Barr is more easily replaced than guy like Hunter. Truth be told, he may be a bargain at his new contact, but I was hoping for a bit less to keep the defense together. Honestly, while I hate to say it, Diggs has to come next over Barr. And thought could mean losing Barr.

 

The one problem I've had with Zim, as much as I love him, is I don't think he's used Barr correctly. And this goes back to Levi's comments. It seems to me his first season he was used a lot more as a rusher, or a distraction, when the Vikings set up in their 5 or 6 man fronts to confuse the offense. But for whatever reason, they have used Barr more and more as a true LB instead of a rusher. And now, they are talking about using him more this season as a rushing and disruptive LB, something I think the should have done more previously, in his contract year.

 

Now, Brezinski is a marvel at running the cap. And the cap goes up every season. And I still have a strong hunch Cousins will do an immediate re-work of his contract with a good season to allow a little more flexibility. I like to word it as "Brady move". But will there be enough money left to keep Barr after Diggs signs an extension? And what a great year, hopefully, from Richardson?

 

Not saying we are going to suddenly fall on bard times, but I'm worried we are going to lose at least one really key piece to our defense after this season.

[DocBauer]

I'd like to discuss the OL for a moment. I live the depth and potential, but hate the uncertainty. I like Reiff, and he could move around, eventually and potentially. Remmers is solid and seemingly versatile. I like Easton, and his potential, and write him in with ink at either of the guard spots. Explain is a potential stud at center. We have sen real flashes of what Hill can do, though I still suspect he's best as a swing OT. I really like Isiodora and wouldn't be surprised if he emerged as a starter over FA Compton.

 

O'Neil wasn't a sexy pick. He wasn't the plug and play OK a lot of hoped for. But it's hard to argue his athleticism and potential with time, and a little more size and strength added. Enough to start this season? Maybe. RT and move to LT eventually? Maybe. This year or next? And the organization thought enough of Collins to keep him last season vs risking him to waivers. He even played down the stretch in 2017 as an extra blocker. Then there is FA Andrews, who the Bikes have stated was a priority signing Really? Who is this guy? Drafted Gossett seems to be the perfect PS player.

 

Despite a lot of unknowns, it still appears we have 4 starters set, for whatever configuration happens. Depth is a question, but I'm betting, right now, on Reiff, Easton, Eflein, Isidora and Remmers.

 

Love to hear what anyone else thinks.

[TheLeviathan]

The OL is a weak group.  The plan to start Hill at RT is very worrisome to me.  I do think Remmers is a better RG than they likely would've gotten in the draft, but he was paid to play RT.  If he's not out there, that's a hole on this offense.  

 

I'm worried about the group this year and I hope they look for opportunities to invest in it if there are cuts.

[DocBauer]

The OL is a weak group.  The plan to start Hill at RT is very worrisome to me.  I do think Remmers is a better RG than they likely would've gotten in the draft, but he was paid to play RT.  If he's not out there, that's a hole on this offense.  

 

I'm worried about the group this year and I hope they look for opportunities to invest in it if there are cuts.

There won't be cuts that make a difference. But there are some talented bodies here to work with. Where do they fit in is the question.

[TheLeviathan]

 

There won't be cuts that make a difference. But there are some talented bodies here to work with. Where do they fit in is the question.

 

There is talent, but they are awfully young and raw.  I like the OT from Pitt, but it won't be this year that he's ready to be a factor IMO.

[Vanimal46]

I think the line could be average at best, with the potential to be very bad if they're struck by the injury bug...

 

O'Niell is a multi year project. We'll see. Hill looked bad as a starter towards the end of the year. Compton could be okay.

 

Cousins better work on his improv just in case...

[TheLeviathan]

I'd feel better about the line if we had a TE who could help.

 

But I wish our TE could do something helpful on the football field.  He's really good at falling down 2 yards in front of the sticks without a fight, but other than that I haven't noticed anything helpful.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan of how Spielman handles the OL at all, not for years now. But, hey, they have like 100 first round picks in the DB field....so there's that.

[DocBauer]

There is talent, but they are awfully young and raw.  I like the OT from Pitt, but it won't be this year that he's ready to be a factor IMO.

Agree on O'Neil. I think he was a good selection and his potential is outstanding. Could he surprise this year? Absolutely. But I think technique, strength and experience have him stepping in next year, or the year after.

 

I actually a like a lot I've seen from Hill. I think he's got what it takes. How big of a jump can he make from last year is the question.

 

I get looking at Remmers inside, but at least for 2018 I still see him at RT and Isidora taking a big step forward at RG.

[DocBauer]

I think the line could be average at best, with the potential to be very bad if they're struck by the injury bug...

O'Niell is a multi year project. We'll see. Hill looked bad as a starter towards the end of the year. Compton could be okay.

Cousins better work on his improv just in case...

Going to slightly disagree with you. While the OL wasn't great last season, healthy, they were much improved. 4 starters are back, and 2 of them still very young and with untapped potential. Not dismissing the loss of Berger, but I expect average, not as a best case scenario.

 

But you're right, they are young. I think Compton is probably an upgrade over Sidles. There are a number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd year guys that offer potential, just hope they aren't needed for extended time.

 

Call me crazy, but one of the things I worry about is who is the 3rd team center? That sounds trivial, but Berger's flexibility, along with Easton, was a real luxury.

[Vanimal46]

I still worry who the starting RT and RG are. Losing Berger isn't a small thing. He's been the best OL they've had over the last couple of years.

[Vanimal46]

Steep price, if true.