Cubs sign Chatwood - 3/38m

[Mike Sixel]

I think the AAV is perfectly fine, but a little surprised on the years as I dig in a little bit more.

 

I think I would rather take a one year flyer on some of the veteran arms out there (Tillman, Jimenez, etc).

Very fair take. I am not in love with anyone in this class. Alas.

[jorgenswest]

Is there still hope that Cobb or Lynn would be guys you get at 4/48? There was a lot of conversation earlier about landing them in this range. Someone is going to get stuck with a big contract.

[kab21]

 

He's being paid as one WAR a year guy.... That would be about what I expected. There aren't many pitchers even available. All of them will get paid.

1 WAR is 8M/yr or so. He is getting 12.67M/yr. 

 

Do you know who else has been worth 1+ WAR/yr? Gibson

I wouldn't even dream of considering a multi-year contract for someone like Gibson. Especially as the first signing of the offseason. At least see if something better happens first instead of guaranteeing yourself mediocrity with a decent sized chunk of the available dollars.

[gunnarthor]

So I do think pitching - especially mid-level pitching - is going to be more expensive than we thought. Darvish is still probably 6/150 but Lynn and Cobb are probably 60m+ guys now. A guy like Jaime Garcia who mlbtraderumors guessed would get 2/16 can probably get more years and a more per year too.

[ashbury]

The days that Denver was the worst stadium in the majors for HRs are over.

 

Data here.

Coors hasn't had the highest park factor for HR in many years.

 

But if you focus on simply Runs, rather than an individual component of scoring, you'll note that Coors continues to sport the highest Park Factor of all MLB, and it's not particularly close, same as most years. There are various working theories about why (big outfield, fly balls carry better, breaking pitches don't bite), but a pitcher leaving Coors is a decent bet to do better.

[Mike Sixel]

1 WAR is 8M/yr or so. He is getting 12.67M/yr.

 

Do you know who else has been worth 1+ WAR/yr? Gibson

 

I wouldn't even dream of considering a multi-year contract for someone like Gibson. Especially as the first signing of the offseason. At least see if something better happens first instead of guaranteeing yourself mediocrity with a decent sized chunk of the available dollars.

So, don't add any pitching this year? Or just flyer types?

[gunnarthor]

 

So, don't add any pitching this year? Or just flyer types?

I think we'll get a Lynn or Cobb in FA, might make a trade and/or grab a guy like Jaime Garcia in FA as well. Darvish is a pipe dream.  

 

No way do we start the season with only Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, ????

[Tomj14]

Kind of funny that people were thinking Lynn and Cobb were going to get about this. Looks like they have closer 20 million a year pitchers.

[Tomj14]

 

I think we'll get a Lynn or Cobb in FA, might make a trade and/or grab a guy like Jaime Garcia in FA as well. Darvish is a pipe dream.  

 

No way do we start the season with only Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, ????

So you think the Twins will sign Lynn or Cobb at somewhere around 4 years beween 60 - 70 million. I would much rather try and trade for a controllable pitcher, even if we have to over pay with prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

So you think the Twins will sign Lynn or Cobb at somewhere around 4 years beween 60 - 70 million. I would much rather try and trade for a controllable pitcher, even if we have to over pay with prospects.

Why? They have the money.

[Twins33]

Why? They have the money.

Levine also said something like they'd rather spend money than trade assets. It's on Wolfson's latest interview with him on his 1500 podcast.

 

I know Wolfson has said for awhile now that he expects Falvey/Levine to make a trade for a SP.

[Tomj14]

 

Why? They have the money.

Because we could use that money to extend that pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

 

 I would much rather try and trade for a controllable pitcher, even if we have to over pay with prospects.

 

 

Why? They have the money.

 

Both valid points; it seems to me the only fair thing to do to settle this debate is do both.

[gunnarthor]

 

So you think the Twins will sign Lynn or Cobb at somewhere around 4 years beween 60 - 70 million. I would much rather try and trade for a controllable pitcher, even if we have to over pay with prospects.

I am firmly in the camp that believes payroll will always be around 110m or so another SP at 15m/year is doable for four years. After that, it might not be. 

 

I'm ok with putting a package of Gordon, Romero/Gonsalves and, say, Thorpe for a solid pitcher but I'm not sure who/where we'd find that.

[cmoss84]

I'm really happy we didn't sign Chatwood. I hope we don't sign anyone else like him. I think we have enough 4/5 rotational options. If we want to move the needle we need to sign or trade for a 1-3 guy. I don't want to "just get" to the playoffs again. I want to make some noise. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm really happy we didn't sign Chatwood. I hope we don't sign anyone else like him. I think we have enough 4/5 rotational options. If we want to move the needle we need to sign or trade for a 1-3 guy. I don't want to "just get" to the playoffs again. I want to make some noise.

There might be one of those in FA this year. You think the Twins will win that bidding? If not, trade it is. How is trading good prospects better than spending money?

[cmoss84]

 

There might be one of those in FA this year. You think the Twins will win that bidding? If not, trade it is. How is trading good prospects better than spending money?

You only see one FA who is a 1-3 guy? 

 

Darvish (probably won't get)

Arrietta (probably won't get)

Cobb

Lynn

Pineda, Tillman, Smyly and Vargas are border line 3's

 

I really don't care if we sign a FA or trade. I'm ok trading prospects right now. We are ready to win now.

 

DeGrom

Cole 

Bundy/Gausman (maybe not available?)

Teheran

Fulmer (if they want to completely rebuild)

Manaea

Velasquez

 

I'm not saying that I think we will make a big splash. But if we want to win playoff games, we need to. 

 

[kab21]

 

So, don't add any pitching this year? Or just flyer types?

This is getting old. I haven't said that. I have said that Chatwood isn't a good pitcher and definitely not one that I spend 3/38 on.

This is basically the first major pitching move (Otani is the 2nd) that has occurred this offseason. You can't honestly tell me that Chatwood was your #1 option this offseason and now the Twins will have to change plans because he is off the board.

[Thrylos]

 

Who is left that is better, and cheap enough that they will also sign relief help?

 

A trade target.  Archer, one of the Mets' starters, one of the Dodgers' starters, Cole. etc etc.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

They'd better have a plan to fix this:

 

Worst K:BB Ratios 2016-17 (min 300 IP)

Martin Perez 1.57

Tyler Chatwood 1.61

Kyle Gibson 1.96

Wade Miley 1.96

Luis Perdomo 2.02

Apparently so should the Twins.

[biggentleben]

 

That was the reason that Denver was thought of as a horrible place to pitch.  Allegedly

 

The reason that Denver is a terrible place to pitch has never, ever been about home runs to any player or informed person about the game.

 

The thin air of Coors drastically affects spin rates. Greg Maddux used to say that he could pick the wings off of a fly with his change up in normal elevation, but he'd have trouble hitting the catcher's mitt in Colorado because he had such spin on his change. He's one of those guys who would likely break all sorts of Statcast spin rate records the way his fastball, curve, and change would move at less than max effort or premium velocity.

 

Charlie Morton just got done having the postseason of a lifetime by and large due to his spin rate on his sinking fastball and his curve. Both are dwarfed by the same rates for Chatwood. Morton likely made Chatwood a lot of money, but Coors absolutely affected how he could pitch, having to scrap his two best pitches at home and then find the feel for them on the road. It's a pretty insane thing to do to a pitcher.

 

I'm not sure I would call this a bargain, but Chatwood would have definitely been on my short list of preferred targets behind the top 4 on the market.

[nicksaviking]

You only see one FA who is a 1-3 guy? 

 

Darvish (probably won't get)

Arrietta (probably won't get)

Cobb

Lynn

Pineda, Tillman, Smyly and Vargas are border line 3's

 

I really don't care if we sign a FA or trade. I'm ok trading prospects right now. We are ready to win now.

 

DeGrom

Cole 

Bundy/Gausman (maybe not available?)

Teheran

Fulmer (if they want to completely rebuild)

Manaea

Velasquez

 

I'm not saying that I think we will make a big splash. But if we want to win playoff games, we need to.

 

I'm ok trading too, some of those trade targets you listed interest me, but the Twins don't need a #1-3, they need a #1. If the best this team does is acquire a 2nd or 3rd tier starter then we already need to start capping our hopes with another token playoff appearance and early exit.