Fangraphs: Projecting the Minor-League FA Pitchers

[Vanimal46]

This may be a route the Twins take as they search high and low for impact pitchers. 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-pitchers-2/ 

 

Didn't know any of these names prior to reading the article. Who knows, maybe one of these players will be the next Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, etc. 

[nicksaviking]

That link didn't work for me. Maybe this one's different:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-pitchers-2/

[diehardtwinsfan]

even if this is a route they take, none of these guys could help in 2018. This is a great way to fill out rotations in the minor league org, but it won't do much good now.

[old nurse]

There is a reason that these players are minor league free agents, something Kluber and Arrietta were not.  The whole key to the article is the 1% produces 0.5 war. You might find a bullpen arm, emergency starter. Look at all the players the Twins cycled through last year. Melville, Turley, Wilk, Rucinski. were all previously let go from minor league teams.

[nicksaviking]

 

There is a reason that these players are minor league free agents, something Kluber and Arrietta were not.  The whole key to the article is the 1% produces 0.5 war. You might find a bullpen arm, emergency starter. Look at all the players the Twins cycled through last year. Melville, Turley, Wilk, Rucinski. were all previously let go from minor league teams.

 

I agree, these guys are all long shots and while it's worth the effort to bring minor league free agents in, it's rarely worth the anticipation (even if there is any). Kintzler and Guerrier did pretty well though.

 

However, this team could still aim a bit higher in terms of ceiling with the MiLB free agent arms. Of the names listed above, only Turley had any history of missing bats, and that history was very short and very recent, and none of them had any history of + velocity. The guys listed in Fangraphs sound like they are a bit more intriguing, at least in terms of stuff. 

 

[Rosterman]

So there's potentially 17 pitchers better than who the Twins are letting walk. I wonder where Slegers would fit into this mix.

 

Yes, you hope they sign one of these guys to be the back-up to the back-up starters in the rotation, considering the varied names the Twins threw out there in 2017 - Wilk,Turley, Wheeler, Slegers, Tepesch, Enns, Melville not to mention Heston being grabbed. 

 

Are any worthy of grabbing and putting on the 40-man, ahead of the Littell, Gonsalves, Enns, Slegers, Eades, Jorge, Romeros currently in the system, not to mention Stewart? Think not. Will pass.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Are any worthy of grabbing and putting on the 40-man, ahead of the Littell, Gonsalves, Enns, Slegers, Eades, Jorge, Romeros currently in the system, not to mention Stewart? Think not. Will pass.

 

That seems to be quite the wide array of players though. Gonsalves, Romero and Littel I'd love to get a chance to see. I might have interest in seeing if Jorge or Slegers can gain significant velocity in the pen to become useful. The other three I'm well past worrying about.

[old nurse]

 

I agree, these guys are all long shots and while it's worth the effort to bring minor league free agents in, it's rarely worth the anticipation (even if there is any). Kintzler and Guerrier did pretty well though.

 

However, this team could still aim a bit higher in terms of ceiling with the MiLB free agent arms. Of the names listed above, only Turley had any history of missing bats, and that history was very short and very recent, and none of them had any history of + velocity. The guys listed in Fangraphs sound like they are a bit more intriguing, at least in terms of stuff. 

Guerrier was a waiver claim, not a free agent.  Kintler had 6 years as a Brewer and 171 games before signing a minor league contract with the Twins True he was a free agent at one point as a minor league player. That had as much to do with the medicals and recovery from the labrum. They are not the same kind of players as the minor league free agent. The fangraphs thing is looking at the career minor league player after the 6 years are up from being drafted and no longer or never were on the 40 man roster.   That would be the Wimmers, Rodriguez and Hurlbut types.  It is Slegers if he does not take another step up in skill after this year.

[old nurse]

 

 

So there's potentially 17 pitchers better than who the Twins are letting walk. I wonder where Slegers would fit into this mix.

 

Yes, you hope they sign one of these guys to be the back-up to the back-up starters in the rotation, considering the varied names the Twins threw out there in 2017 - Wilk,Turley, Wheeler, Slegers, Tepesch, Enns, Melville not to mention Heston being grabbed. 

 

Are any worthy of grabbing and putting on the 40-man, ahead of the Littell, Gonsalves, Enns, Slegers, Eades, Jorge, Romeros currently in the system, not to mention Stewart? Think not. Will pass.

It would likely be a minor league signing with an invitation to the big league camp sort of signing.

[Thrylos]

 

So there's potentially 17 pitchers better than who the Twins are letting walk. I wonder where Slegers would fit into this mix.

 

Yes, you hope they sign one of these guys to be the back-up to the back-up starters in the rotation, considering the varied names the Twins threw out there in 2017 - Wilk,Turley, Wheeler, Slegers, Tepesch, Enns, Melville not to mention Heston being grabbed. 

 

Are any worthy of grabbing and putting on the 40-man, ahead of the Littell, Gonsalves, Enns, Slegers, Eades, Jorge, Romeros currently in the system, not to mention Stewart? Think not. Will pass.

 

Some of those could potentially be better than Slegers who is the definition of replacement level.

 

These guys do not need to be on the 40-man roster unless they make the team.  And if they do, it will mean that they beat the Slegers, Duffeys, Curtisses and Presslys of the world, which gives them their spot.

 

[Thrylos]

The one fallacy about this is that they projections totally discount their 2017 MLB numbers, it seems.  

 

Jacob Turner who is rated so high pitched 39 innings for the Nationals with 5.3 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 5.08 ERA and 5.88 FIP.  That's horrible.  Worse than eg. Buddy Bo, who does not belong in a major league competitive team.

[ashbury]

Slegers who is the definition of replacement level.

He may turn out that way.

 

OTOH he has improved every season thus far. 2018 is the season he stops?

[Mr. Brooks]

He may turn out that way.

 

OTOH he has improved every season thus far. 2018 is the season he stops?

Improved in what way? His k and bb numbers have gotten worse as he's progressed.

ERA for a milb pitcher is pretty much completely meaningless, IMO.

[Thrylos]

 

He may turn out that way.

 

OTOH he has improved every season thus far. 2018 is the season he stops?

 

He is 25+.  In 2017 he had 6.46 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9.   If he improves all by a point in 2018 (5.46 ERA, 4.7 FIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9,) he still will be replacement level.

BTW, his best season was 2015 at the Fort (other than his rookie season.)  He went downhill 2016 and improved slightly in 2017.

[ashbury]

Improved in what way? His k and bb numbers have gotten worse as he's progressed.

ERA for a milb pitcher is pretty much completely meaningless, IMO.

His 2017 numbers in AAA look pretty similar to me to his 2014 numbers at Cedar Rapids. K/9, BB/9, WHIP.

 

Except he's not pitching in Cedar Rapids anymore. The caliber of opposition is much tougher.^*

 

Ergo, improved. I see steady progress. And I don't know a reason to think he won't continue to progress in his age-25 season too.

 

Lots of guys hit a wall along the way. Aaron's knocking on the door. Maybe he'll not walk through - I've already acknowledged that. I haven't closed the book on him. You have. Fine. We'll see.

 

^{* _{His 2015 and 2016 moving up the organization weren't wildly out of line either. FSL can be a bit of a pitcher's league, the SA tilts a little the other way as I recall it.}}

[Mr. Brooks]

His 2017 numbers in AAA look pretty similar to me to his 2014 numbers at Cedar Rapids. K/9, BB/9, WHIP.

 

Except he's not pitching in Cedar Rapids anymore. The caliber of opposition is much tougher.^*

 

Ergo, improved. I see steady progress. And I don't know a reason to think he won't continue to progress in his age-25 season too.

 

Lots of guys hit a wall along the way. Aaron's knocking on the door. Maybe he'll not walk through - I've already acknowledged that. I haven't closed the book on him. You have. Fine. We'll see.

 

^{* _{His 2015 and 2016 moving up the organization weren't wildly out of line either. FSL can be a bit of a pitcher's league, the SA tilts a little the other way as I recall it.}}

Sure, but his K and BB numbers in between those 2 levels were pretty bad, IMO. We'll just agree to disagree. I see Slegers as AAAA depth as a ceiling.

[Guest]

Don’t understand the Slegers hate. He was 8th in FIP and 6th in xFIP in the International League while likely being younger than league average age. He didn’t turn 25 until the IL season ended, so he’s not old. He has good walk and GB rates. I wouldn’t want him starting opening day, but it seems that he’s shown enough potential and recent success to not be written off.

[The Wise One]

 

Don’t understand the Slegers hate. He was 8th in FIP and 6th in xFIP in the International League while likely being younger than league average age. He didn’t turn 25 until the IL season ended, so he’s not old. He has good walk and GB rates. I wouldn’t want him starting opening day, but it seems that he’s shown enough potential and recent success to not be written off.

You missed the real impressive number. The last 2 years he has had a better than 25% IFFB rate.