Go Bold: Trade for Gerrit Cole

[Vanimal46]

As we're all discussing ways to improve the pitching staff, one name seems to be forgotten around here... Gerrit Cole. 

The Pirates are at a cross-road with their franchise. After 3 years in a row making the playoffs earlier this decade, they've failed to have a winning record the last 2 seasons. They need to decide what direction they want to go as a franchise, as some of their key players over the years are aging, and about to become free agents in the next year or 2. 

 

Gerrit Cole has 2 years of arbitration remaining before hitting the open market in 2020. He's 27 years old and has been fairly durable during his career, without any significant arm injuries in his past. His velocity readings are quite consistent since his MLB debut in 2013. 

 

Looking into their prospect situation, only 2 middle IF prospects made John Sickels' top 10. Kevin Newman, ranked #5 on Sickels' list looks a lot like Engelb Vielma.... A defense first, minimal bat player. Cole Tucker, ranked #10 on Sickels' list appears to have more promise with the bat, but still a year or 2 away. At the MLB level, Jordy Mercer is signed for 1 more season. 

 

This may be a good route if the Pirates choose to rebuild by trading McCutchen and Cole. 

 

One of Rosario or Kepler + Nick Gordon + Mejia for Cole. Does that get it done?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I predict the Pirates try one more year, and if it isn't working, they deal at the deadline.

 

I think I'd rather have Archer for a similar package.....

 

edit: no idea if those trades are even viable.

[drjim]

That's a little steep in my mind. I'm not sure the Twins would need to add on to Rosario or Kepler. Cole is solid but not *that* good. Good low end 2.

[Mike Sixel]

Would you rather have Lynn and Rosario, or Cole and some FA OF?

[gunnarthor]

It might. Cole is an innings eater but hasn't quite lived up to his hype. I don't know if we'd have to include a ML OFer - they are loaded there with Polanco, Marte, Meadows and McCutchen- and they might want prospects. Gordon, one of Gonsalves/Romero might be enough frankly.

 

Assume Cole is worth 6 WAR over the next two years. Do we want to pay with two top 100 prospects? That's probably about the price.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like the idea of getting Cole, but I'm not a fan of trading Rosario or Kepler as a main piece, nor would I see them trying to acquire either unless they are making win now moves (which I assume means not trading Cole). I guess a lot of this depends on where the Pirates are in their own rebuild cycle. Cole likely won't benefit them the next two years, so a trade for now makes sense, but they will probably want some high end minor league talent...  I'll spit ball here:

 

Gordon - got give value to get value.  Not a fan, and that suddenly makes extending Dozier more of a priority (or a 2 year stop gap for Palacios), but well worth it.

 

I could see Mejia as a piece, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed more for some of our AA arms. I'd say Gonsalves at a minimum, and I could see them asking for Romero as well. I'd probably be willing to let one of them go and see if they would take a guy like Jorge instead.

 

I still think you'd probably need a lotto ticket in low A...

 

Do you think a package of Gordon, Gonsalves or Romero, Jorge, and a guy like Edwar Colina might pull it off?

 

Edit... and yes, Archer is probably preferred

[Vanimal46]

 

That's a little steep in my mind. I'm not sure the Twins would need to add on to Rosario or Kepler. Cole is solid but not *that* good. Good low end 2.

 

It may be too steep. I was just trying to make it more realistic than (insert struggling Twins' prospect here) + Duensing for Cole proposals that we've seen before. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Would you rather have Lynn and Rosario, or Cole and some FA OF?

 

Probably the latter, honestly. I believe in Cole being a top of the rotation pitcher more than Lynn being a top of the rotation pitcher. 

[markos]

 

Would you rather have Lynn and Rosario, or Cole and some FA OF?

Cole and some FA OF.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, someone above makes a good point, they have good OF prospects.....I'd guess it would be Kepler  and 1 minor league player, or three minor leaguers, if they deal Cole.

[drjim]

 

Would you rather have Lynn and Rosario, or Cole and some FA OF?

 

I would probably take the latter, but it would be a hit to the OF defense with the options that are floating out there. And they would probably also want to make sure they get a veteran DH. There are certainly some cheap corner OFs that are available to bridge the gap until Lewis is ready, and I think Granite could get 150-200 PAs in this scenario as well.

 

I could see the Pirates considering a move like this in conjunction with flipping McCutchen elsewhere as more of a retool than a full rebuild.

[drjim]

Cole is also estimated to make about $7.5mil next year, so there would potentially be space to trade for him AND sign Lynn/Cobb, and replace the corner OF with a cheaper option to combine with Granite. Could probably still pull off a decent reliever too.

 

It would be a much stronger rotation with a little bit weaker lineup.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Actually, someone above makes a good point, they have good OF prospects.....I'd guess it would be Kepler  and 1 minor league player, or three minor leaguers, if they deal Cole.

 

Not really in the high minors.

 

They have some good ones down further, but in the high minors you're looking at Granite and Wade. The problem with moving Kepler or Rosario is that creates a hole in the short term. If they want to spend money to plug the hole they created, I'm fine with it, but I just don't see a team in win now mode trading a young, average to above starting OF with no real replacement in house.

[markos]

 

Do you think a package of Gordon, Gonsalves or Romero, Jorge, and a guy like Edwar Colina might pull it off?

 

Edit... and yes, Archer is probably preferred

I think that is a fair deal, but I'm not certain it is a winning deal. It is hard to say how many win-now or win-soon teams would get into the bidding for Cole. Theoretically, the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, Brewers, Blue Jays, Indians and Nationals could outbid that offer if they so desired. But many of those teams might sit out the Cole bidding for various reasons (need/performance/health). That's one of the reasons why I think the Twins have a better chance to acquire Cole than Archer. No team is passing on Archer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not really in the high minors.

 

They have some good ones down further, but in the high minors you're looking at Granite and Wade. The problem with moving Kepler or Rosario is that creates a hole in the short term. If they want to spend money to plug the hole they created, I'm fine with it, but I just don't see a team in win now mode trading a young, average to above starting OF with no real replacement in house.

 

they being Pittsburgh, not MN.....

[GP830]

Kepler+ Gordon for Cole + McCutchen.

 

We get a veteran bat in RF, and a good young starter. They get younger and cheaper in the outfield, salary relief, and strong infield depth.

 

???

[Vanimal46]

 

Kepler+ Gordon for Cole + McCutchen.

 

We get a veteran bat in RF, and a good young starter. They get younger and cheaper in the outfield, salary relief, and strong infield depth.

 

???

 

Way too light. No chance that package nets both players. McCutchen had a very nice bounce back year and will net a solid return of prospects. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler+ Gordon for Cole + McCutchen.

 

We get a veteran bat in RF, and a good young starter. They get younger and cheaper in the outfield, salary relief, and strong infield depth.

 

???

 

Kepler, Gordon, a good AA pitcher, and Mejia and whatever hitter they want from the minors MIGHT get that done.

[GP830]

 

Kepler, Gordon, a good AA pitcher, and Mejia and whatever hitter they want from the minors MIGHT get that done.

In your opinion-- would you like that trade for the Twins or would that be an overpay?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

In your opinion-- would you like that trade for the Twins or would that be an overpay?

 

Depends on how many years McCutchen has left, but probably not...  That's definitely a win now move.

 

Imagine an OF with Buxton, McCutchen, and Rosario. That's 3 CFs covering a ton of ground.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In your opinion-- would you like that trade for the Twins or would that be an overpay?

 

I think McCutchen has an option year. He'd have to agree to move to LF or RF. I have my doubts he'd do that, pretty sure he balked at that not long after doing it last year. With an option here, and with him agreeing to move to a corner (no idea how his D is), maybe.

[drjim]

 

I think McCutchen has an option year. He'd have to agree to move to LF or RF. I have my doubts he'd do that, pretty sure he balked at that not long after doing it last year. With an option here, and with him agreeing to move to a corner (no idea how his D is), maybe.

 

Not so much he balked but he moved back to CF by necessity after Marte got popped for roids, then he stayed after Marte came back. I'm not sure the Pirates would want to do that again.

 

But yes, one more year for McCutchen. He had a nice year, but he won't be outrageously expensive. Could be a possibility.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

What if we traded for Felipe Rivero too? A lefty coming off a very good year would be a great get for the bullpen.

 

What about Cole + Rivero for Romero + Gordon + Mejia + (Kohl Stewart or Felix Jorge) + Jermaine Palacios + (Edwar Colina or Akil Badoo)

 

Too little or too much?

[DocBauer]

Would you rather have Lynn and Rosario, or Cole and some FA OF?

Lynn and Rosario.

 

Solid track record for Lynn, good bounce back year and probably better and stronger this season.

 

And again, we keep all of our players and prospects both for depth and future trades, whether this season or next.

[Vanimal46]

 

What if we traded for Felipe Rivero too? A lefty coming off a very good year would be a great get for the bullpen.

 

What about Cole + Rivero for Romero + Gordon + Mejia + (Kohl Stewart or Felix Jorge) + Jermaine Palacios + (Edwar Colina or Akil Badoo)

 

Too little or too much?

 

Just spit balling here, but I think it depends if Pittsburgh wants to "retool" or "rebuild". If they decide to retool, they'll probably want MLB-ready players on pre-arbitration contracts, or just entering arbitration. If they decide to rebuild, then they'll probably want A/AA lottery tickets. 

I definitely don't follow them closely enough to know which direction they should go. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure I'd want to trade for a reliever either...

 

Honestly, McCutchen is fun to talk about, but that only makes sense if Kepler is part of a deal for pitching. It's creative and potentially the pieces are there, but paying for an RP that could be picked up relatively cheap in FA is probably not the right move. Finding a good starter is a bit harder to do.

[Vanimal46]

Since Pittsburgh is also a mid-market team, it's noteworthy that their attendance figures have dropped 25% over the last 2 years. It will decrease again next season, since we know attendance numbers lag behind a year. 

 

There's a good chance they'll be looking for some salary relief this winter or July 2018. 

[USAFChief]

I like the thinking, and I think Cole is a great candidate to be much better over the next couple years than the price paid now.  

 

No guarantee, of course, but if there were, the price would reflect that. 

 

 

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Just spit balling here, but I think it depends if Pittsburgh wants to "retool" or "rebuild". If they decide to retool, they'll probably want MLB-ready players on pre-arbitration contracts, or just entering arbitration. If they decide to rebuild, then they'll probably want A/AA lottery tickets. 

I definitely don't follow them closely enough to know which direction they should go. 

That's a good point. I have no clue where they'd want to go but I'm hoping rebuild. As I'd prefer to not trade any major league position players. I wouldn't mind trading any of the minor league position players though.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

I'm not sure I'd want to trade for a reliever either...

 

Honestly, McCutchen is fun to talk about, but that only makes sense if Kepler is part of a deal for pitching. It's creative and potentially the pieces are there, but paying for an RP that could be picked up relatively cheap in FA is probably not the right move. Finding a good starter is a bit harder to do.

Rivero had a 1.67 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. I don't expect numbers that good this year too, but I don't think there's a RP of that quality on the market and if there was he'd be a lot of money. I'd really like to get Rivero if we do make a trade for Cole even if it costs us some young lottery ticket players.