Percentage odds of Twins getting to the postseason

[glunn]

According to Sportsline, the Twins have a 14.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.8% chance of winning the AL Central.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sportsline-mlb-playoff-race-projections-al-and-nl-wildcard-picture-gets-clearer/

 

Sportsline also computes a .3% chance of the Twins making it to the World Series.

 

I find this moderately encouraging, considering the expectations at the beginning of the season.

 

Let's not read too much into this.  Such predictions are subject to question, but also at least slightly interesting.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sounds like Fangraphs "coin flip mode" playoff odds:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current

 

That is, flipping a coin for every game, irrespective of roster. Our odds are notably lower using season stats to date or projections.

[Doomtints]

 

Sounds like Fangraphs "coin flip mode" playoff odds:

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current

That is, flipping a coin for every game, irrespective of roster. Our odds are notably lower using season stats to date or projections.

 

15% isn't good odds to start with.  

 

However, I would not put more weight on the "season stats" projections either. The Twins have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way with a lot of games v. the Royals and Indians. The odds are long no matter how you slice it, but they're not out of it.  I suspect the team will land with 78 wins and in 3rd place, but I would not count them out for more.

[Circus Boy]

I flipped a coin.

 

It came up heads.

[Dantes929]

I compare it to cribbage.   I might be on 3rd street and thinking skunk odds are 50/50 and winning it a sure thing if my opponent is early on 2nd street and those odds are probably pretty accurate but it only takes a couple 12 point hands while I come up empty to eliminate the skunk odds and put a win in jeopardy.     For example just two days ago our odds of making the playoffs was just under 5% so with two wins we just went from a worse than 1 in 20 chance to a better than one in 7 chance.     Win two more while others lose and we probably move closer to 1 in 3 or 4.     Still not bet the house on it but hardly microscopic territory.   Of course they have to actually win those two for this scenario to play out.  Forget about the World Series Odds.   Get in the wild card and win it and your odds for winning it all jump up dramatically.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I flipped a coin.

 

It came up heads.

 

Pics or you're lying.

[ashbury]

I flipped a coin.

 

It came up heads.

I flipped a coin. Got it for face value when I bought lunch at McDonalds, sold it for the same when I included it in my settlement on a latte purchase. Didn't make any money off it, but on the bright side I invested nothing fixing it up. And I enjoyed my burger, and the coffee later on. Sometimes you break even and are glad of it.

 

Oh, and Go Twins. Beat those odds. Shock the world.