Nats - A's Trade

[drjim]

Nats pick up Doolittle and Madson for a pretty reasonable price. Maybe (controllable) relievers are gettable for cheaper than I would have guessed if Twins are aggressive.

 

Also possible A's wanted to dump those two (and salaries) before they reverted or got hurt again.

[USAFChief]

 

Nats pick up Doolittle and Madson for a pretty reasonable price. Maybe (controllable) relievers are gettable for cheaper than I would have guessed if Twins are aggressive.

 

Also possible A's wanted to dump those two (and salaries) before they reverted or got hurt again.

Salary dump, and we know the Twins won't be in on anything like that.

[darin617]

The first deal might look cheap. What do you think happens now when you take away 2 RP's from the trade market? Supply & demand takes over and the over pay happens.

Maybe the worst thing for Twins fans falling out of contention could be the greatest thing for the future.

[Guest]

Nats find a GM to trade major league players in exchange for minor league wishes. Seems like I've heard of this before. As a general rule, either side can win theses trades, but for this one, based on the participants, I expect this deal to be one-sided in the Nats' favor.

[Guest]

Nats will still want a closer, hint hint.

[drjim]

The first deal might look cheap. What do you think happens now when you take away 2 RP's from the trade market? Supply & demand takes over and the over pay happens.

Maybe the worst thing for Twins fans falling out of contention could be the greatest thing for the future.

But two holes were filled, so demand drops too.

 

I wonder if Beane expects a buyers market, wanted to get ahead of it

[Rosterman]

Salary dump, and you trade for bulk hoping someone is fresh!

 

[Thrylos]

 

Nats pick up Doolittle and Madson for a pretty reasonable price. Maybe (controllable) relievers are gettable for cheaper than I would have guessed if Twins are aggressive.

 

Also possible A's wanted to dump those two (and salaries) before they reverted or got hurt again.

 

Twins' equivalent:  Jordan Balazovic, Travis Blackenhorn, and Tyler Duffey.

 

Reasonable?

 

Would you do it?

[drjim]

Twins' equivalent: Jordan Balazovic, Travis Blackenhorn, and Tyler Duffey.

 

Reasonable?

 

Would you do it?

Yes

[old nurse]

 

Twins' equivalent:  Jordan Balazovic, Travis Blackenhorn, and Tyler Duffey.

 

Reasonable?

 

Would you do it?

Duffey is much better than Luzardo. Hopefully Balzovic's ceiling is higher than what Trienen has done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Duffey is much better than Luzardo. Hopefully Balzovic's ceiling is higher than what Trienen has done.

I think Duffey was the approximate Treinen equivalent. Balzovic = Luzardo, Blakenhorn = Neuse.

[old nurse]

 

I think Duffey was the approximate Treinen equivalent. Balzovic = Luzardo, Blakenhorn = Neuse.

It really isn't too hard to figure out what he meant.

Treinan appears to be a mop up right handed pitcher.  Duffey is hardly a comparable to that.  Luzardo is a lefty with a mid 90 fastball and a big curve  A high ceiling, high risk prospect. because of already having TJ.   Balazovic has neither similar pitches , handededness, nor the ceiling..  It was a bad comp.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Treinan appears to be a mop up right handed pitcher. Duffey is hardly a comparable to that.

Treinen had a 2.28 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 1.34 average game entering leverage index last year. Duffey is at 4.74 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 1.25 leverage index this year. Duffey is younger and has a year less service time, but they're really not that far apart in usage or performance to date. The Twins don't really have a better comp, I don't think (Pressly has a year more service time than Treinen, and is perhaps a bit more conspicuously bad this year).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe Ynoa or Graterol would be better matches for / could be an offer of Luzardo?

[jorgenswest]

Twins' equivalent:  Jordan Balazovic, Travis Blackenhorn, and Tyler Duffey.

 

Reasonable?

 

Would you do it?

Yes. No.

[USAFChief]

The first deal might look cheap. What do you think happens now when you take away 2 RP's from the trade market?.

Nothing, except I think it proves that there are reasonable trade targets out there if Falvine decide to act.

 

This deal doesn't alter the market.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know. The more I look at this deal, I don't know how you say no to Thrylos's hypothetical, and probably even more.

 

For all of his injuries, Doolittle has pitched the bulk of every season of the last 6 except one (2015), has been consistently good while doing it, and is controlled cheaply for potentially 3 more past this one. Honestly, he may have been the best relief target available -- good, controllable, with just enough surface issues to keep his asking price down (as compared to Hand).

 

And after missing 3 years, Madson has been healthy for 3 years now, and is pitching about as well as he ever has. Controlled for 2018 at a reasonable sum too (7 mil).

 

We only have 2 trusted guys in our current pen, which is bad enough going into a pennant race, but Kintzler is a pending FA and Rogers has a 6.7 K/9 (not to mention Kintzler's 5.4). I really don't see how the Twins could pass that up.

 

Once again, it pays to be on Oakland's speed dial, I think.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd have been happy on either side of that deal.

 

Either play to win, or play for the future, but playing the middle never works.

[kab21]

 

Salary dump, and we know the Twins won't be in on anything like that.

This is getting to be a very tired criticism. Especially in a trade where both RP's are more valuable than their contracts. This isn't even a salary dump imo.

I would instantly do Thrylos's hypothetical trade to add 2 very good RP's to the bullpen. And these guys aren't even rentals.

[USAFChief]

This is getting to be a very tired criticism. Especially in a trade where both RP's are more valuable than their contracts. This isn't even a salary dump imo.

I would instantly do Thrylos's hypothetical trade to add 2 very good RP's to the bullpen. And these guys aren't even rentals.

Tired, but accurate. I'll believe the Twins will take on salary to get better when I see it happen.

[old nurse]

 

Tired, but accurate. I'll believe the Twins will take on salary to get better when I see it happen.

Shannon Stewart,

Neil Cotts was making 3 mil. About what Doolittle makes.

If you but look.

[old nurse]

 

Treinen had a 2.28 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 1.34 average game entering leverage index last year. Duffey is at 4.74 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 1.25 leverage index this year. Duffey is younger and has a year less service time, but they're really not that far apart in usage or performance to date. The Twins don't really have a better comp, I don't think (Pressly has a year more service time than Treinen, and is perhaps a bit more conspicuously bad this year).

Trienen played for a winning team, his leverage index will be higher when he finishes out games the team is ahead.   The data on pitch framing a few years ago showed that outcome of a game was no longer in doubt that more strikes were called.  This year's drop in K/9 and increase in ERA would say regression. When I read the local story, Wahington was not shedding tears they gave up a great pitcher.

 

That he is also 29 and will be Arb eligible makes him not a comp to Duffey.  The comp was a poor one. Luzardo is a high ceiling prospect. Nusse was described as Mike Olt with a hopefully better outcome.   Not quite the same  as the  proposed package for the Twins.

[drjim]

Tired, but accurate. I'll believe the Twins will take on salary to get better when I see it happen.

They did it as recently as 2015 with Jepsen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trienen played for a winning team, his leverage index will be higher when he finishes out games the team is ahead.

Average game entering leverage index. The higher the number, the closer the score is when you enter the game. The number actually goes down the larger your lead is. Treinen would not have achieved that mark by primarily pitching the last innings of 4+ run wins, just like Duffey hasn't done so this year.

 

It's not a perfect comp, but it is as close as the Twins currently have. Pressly is more expensive and probably worse right now. If Duffey is a little better/cheaper, the other parts of the deal could be lowered to compensate (which I believe is what Thrylos did), although I think we likely would have needed to beat the deal rather than match it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Shannon Stewart,

Neil Cotts was making 3 mil. About what Doolittle makes.

If you but look.

Actually Doolittle is guaranteed about $5.5 mil through 2018.

 

Cotts was only owed ~$750k when we acquired him.

 

Stewart was due about $3 mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They did it as recently as 2015 with Jepsen.

Jepsen had about $1 mil left on his contract. I don't think Chief meant any salary, in absolute terms.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think the Twins have taken on a ~$10 mil guarantee in trade, as Madson represents. Much less the $15 mil total of Madson plus Doolittle here.

 

We know they are willing to add that in arb and free agency, generally (although maybe not in the pen), but it does seem like perhaps they are unwilling/unable to make that level of move/adjustment/commitment midseason, for whatever reason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is getting to be a very tired criticism. Especially in a trade where both RP's are more valuable than their contracts. This isn't even a salary dump imo.

I think with Oakland, most trades have an element of salary dump.

[old nurse]

 

Actually Doolittle is guaranteed about $5.5 mil through 2018.

Cotts was only owed ~$750k when we acquired him.

Stewart was due about $3 mil.

They were contracts of players not paid like the bottom of the scrap heap pickups like the many minimum wage contracts picked up this year.   The team went out and picked up a veteran player  that was being paid a significant amount. 

Doolitle has a 4.38 million for next year and a buyout of $500000 after that.  The buyout would only be likely if he bombs as a nl pitcher.  If they pick up his option that option is for 6 mil with a buyout of .5 mil the year after that.

[drjim]

I don't think the Twins have taken on a ~$10 mil guarantee in trade, as Madson represents. Much less the $15 mil total of Madson plus Doolittle here.

 

We know they are willing to add that in arb and free agency, generally (although maybe not in the pen), but it does seem like perhaps they are unwilling/unable to make that level of move/adjustment/commitment midseason, for whatever reason.

They took on about 4-5 mil in 2010 with the 3 relievers they added, probably the only relevant comp.