Quintana to the Cubs

[FargoFanMan]

Maybe this regime will help win a title instead of settling on mediocrity

[old nurse]

 

A notch? Jimenez is the #5 prospect in baseball. I think there is more than a notch between him and Javier right now.

And while Romero is closer to Cease, I think it is pretty universally understood that Cease has more upside ace potential than Romero.

These are important distinctions. These blockbusters aren't generally built on quantity, they are built on quality. If you can't match the quality of the top 2 pieces, you can't really match the deal.

Jimenez at 18 was unranked.  Sano at 18 was unranked. As is Javier at 18. 

The trade brought the White Sox potential. It is not unreasonable to think that Javier in two years could be as good as  Jimenez is this year.  Cease may have ace upside  the chance of him getting there is small. As good as Quintana is you are not going to trade an ace prospect.  See Trey McNutt. Injuries derailed him.  Cease has one pitch that works very well.  The curve is inconsistent, The overall comand is poor. Ace potential is there with a lot of ifs.

[bird]

 

The White Sox are 11 games under .500 and headed south. They are doing what they need to rebuild. They will be strong about the time the Twins core group is eligible for free agency. (Maybe earlier, depending on who they get for Robertson and Frazier)

 

The Twins have five position players age 25 and under and are headed up. Two Twins starters are here to stay and are 23 and 24. There should be at least two more new relievers up later this year. Granite and Garver give the Twins some depth. They also have enough farm talent and available cash to acquire players and compete for the next four years.

 

I'd rather be the Twins than the White Sox. Of course, we could trade our MLB talent and build for 2021...

 

I'm not sure which team has the brighter future when we look out, say, four years. I think a lot of that will be a function of whether those 7 high-ceiling prospects CWS now has pan out. I see similarities more than I see a distinctive edge, but we're simply looking at different stages of the cycle for each tem. And maybe Chicago's cycle will move faster. Maybe, unlike Sano and Buxton, Moncada and Jiminez will skate through without injury, for example, and maybe one or two more of Chicago's high-ceiling pitchers will come through for them. And certainly, their talent is skewed toward pitching moreso than the Twins was at that stage in the cycle.

 

Any way you cut it, you have to give the Sox credit for converting Cespedes, Adam Eaton, et al into a nice haul of prospects like they did.

[bird]

 

Of course there is, one only needs to look at the prospect rating for a certain fleet footed CF as a cautionary tale of counting too much on how well prospect rating translate to MLB performance.

 

But it seems odd many people glorified the Twins former FO for the Twins high prospect rating when they had them and now want to give warnings and/or push aside the farm system the W Sox has assembled.

 

 

I'd like to go back and visit whatever site you were on, jimmer. I pretty much stay loyal to TD, so I missed all that glorifying stuff. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jimenez at 18 was unranked. Sano at 18 was unranked. As is Javier at 18.

The trade brought the White Sox potential. It is not unreasonable to think that Javier in two years could be as good as Jimenez is this year.

Sure, but that doesn't mean they are only a "tick" apart in value today. Two years from now Jimenez might be a rookie of the year candidate like Miguel Sano once was, but you wouldn't say he currently has the value Sano did then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Any way you cut it, you have to give the Sox credit for converting Cespedes, Adam Eaton, et al into a nice haul of prospects like they did.

Cespedes was the Tigers. (Confusing because the White Sox also have a pitcher named Fulmer!)

[bird]

 

The thing about the Whitesox farm is their depth is still not there. They will have to supplement their roster significantly when these guys come up over the next few years. Though they sure are making the most of thier assets in trades for prospects.

 

 

But I like their chances. Or dislike them I guess. They'll have a couple more years of great draft position, they have a couple assets left that could land another piece, and they've recommitted to IFA in a big way. 

 

I just don't think any team in the Central Division is going to run away with a massive advantage when it comes to developing home-grown talent. They're all committed to a strategy of relying more on their own development, even the Tigers, for heaven's sake. And given the new CBA, allotment pools, harsher sanctions, universal adoption of all the video technology, the maturity of more advanced analysis and widespread use of it, the playing field has evened out.

[Blackjack]

I can't believe i was working so hard today that i didn't catch this thread and the fact that Quintana was traded until i heard it on CCO tonight!!   

 

Slogging thru seven pages, two conclusions: 1) Its fun to bitch about the past trades not done but its water over the dam, its not coming back. Lets look forward to what Falvine does.

2) Looks like a good trade for both teams but one thing I've learned from reading TD over the years is how few prospects really make it to the majors!!! From that standpoint I'd have to give the edge to the Cubs.

[Blackjack]

Two more thoughts:

 

1) This only increases Santana's value. I'd hold out for one very good prospect. But then you might as well trade Dozier too.

 

2) What are people's predictions on the Twins record over the next 9 games?? THAT will determine whether Santana goes or not. My guess is 3-6. Good bye Ervin.

[dbminn]

 

I'm not sure which team has the brighter future when we look out, say, four years. I think a lot of that will be a function of whether those 7 high-ceiling prospects CWS now has pan out. I see similarities more than I see a distinctive edge, but we're simply looking at different stages of the cycle for each tem. And maybe Chicago's cycle will move faster. Maybe, unlike Sano and Buxton, Moncada and Jiminez will skate through without injury, for example, and maybe one or two more of Chicago's high-ceiling pitchers will come through for them. And certainly, their talent is skewed toward pitching moreso than the Twins was at that stage in the cycle.

 

Any way you cut it, you have to give the Sox credit for converting Cespedes, Adam Eaton, et al into a nice haul of prospects like they did.

 

Good comments. I was looking at the Twins likelihood of winning v. the White Sox. The Twins are later in the cycle and we know 7 of them can compete in the majors. Maybe most of Chicago's prospects will become starters in the minimum amount of time. It usually doesn't happen so smoothly, especially for pitchers. Only time will tell.

[bird]

 

I admit I hadn't heard of any of these prospects until today but on paper it doesn't seem that steep a price. One elite OF prospect in high-A, a good pitching prospect in A-ball, and a couple throw ins. Seems light if anything.

If the Twins couldn't match that, after all the losing of the past decade almost, because of an unwillingness to spend on amateurs, then I don't know what to say. It seems like the ROI from amateur spending ought to be exactly how a spendthrift ownership group would plan to be competitive, if they cared about being competitive at all.

 

Contrary to many opinions we're hearing on this thread, I for one think they could readily put a package together to entice a trade for a pitcher of roughly Quintana's caliber without coming even close to decimating their talent pipeline. Frankly, my wish list includes an off-season FA signing AND a trade of surplus prospects for two rotation mainstays, one being a 2/3 guy. (I think of Quintana as a 1/2).

[bird]

 

Could you post an example of a package that the White Sox might have taken over the Cubs package?
And keep in mind that Hahn has stated publicly that they look for quality over quantity in these deals.

Only way the Twins even have a shot is by including Sano, Buxton, Berrios or Kepler, which kind of defeats the purpose.

 

 

Yeah, I'll give it a wild shot.

Wander Javier heads it up. Like Eloy Jiminez, a top IFA guy, who, like Eloy did, could rise up the lists in a hurry. Fernando Romero, maybe a couple dozen players between his ranking and Cease's. LaMont Wade. Huascar Ynoa. If they balk, let them have John Curtiss and Jermaine Palacios.

[Guest]

Jimenez at 18 was unranked.  Sano at 18 was unranked. As is Javier at 18. 

The trade brought the White Sox potential. It is not unreasonable to think that Javier in two years could be as good as  Jimenez is this year.  Cease may have ace upside  the chance of him getting there is small. As good as Quintana is you are not going to trade an ace prospect.  See Trey McNutt. Injuries derailed him.  Cease has one pitch that works very well.  The curve is inconsistent, The overall comand is poor. Ace potential is there with a lot of ifs.

Sano was BA #60 at the start of 2011, the year he turned 18. He was #18 the next February, three months before he turned 19. Just FYI.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, I'll give it a wild shot.

Wander Javier heads it up. Like Eloy Jiminez, a top IFA guy, who, like Eloy did, could rise up the lists in a hurry. Fernando Romero, maybe a couple dozen players between his ranking and Cease's. LaMont Wade. Huascar Ynoa. If they balk, let them have John Curtiss and Jermaine Palacios.

Could, but as of now hasn't.

Jiminez is the #5 prospect in all of baseball. Javier isn't ranked.

They are not even remotely comparable in value.

 

Perhaps we should offer Gibson for Trout since they were once upon a time in the same tier as prospects?

[bird]

 

The WS have stated their goal is 1 big upside guy as the centerpiece, not two in the next tier. Right or wrong, that's been their stated goal.

 

If you really believe in Kiriloff and Gordon, I'd probably rather have that then just 1 player. But, the delta between the best prospects and the next tier or two is quite large in expected value. So, it's hard to argue the WS path as one good approach.

 

 

I'm quite certain that both Gordon and Kiriloff would meet their criteria of being big upside guys, and as I read it, they merely explained that their objective is to populate the pipeline with high upside guys rather than settle for a quantity of lesser talents.

 

I guess I'm leery of us looking at some list and thinking we have much of an idea of the delta between two guys. Just as fast as JP Crawford can crash from #5 to #92 or whatever, an Eloy Jiminez (or a Wander Javier the following year?) can move out of the shadows and into the limelight. We have to be cognizant of the fact that we're looking at these snapshots in time, whereas the teams are kind of operating in real time regarding these prospects.

 

[Han Joelo]

Personally, my tinfoil theory is that some FO's are really good at putting lipstick on their prospects with the national writers. The newest market inefficiency. A particular specialty of Epstein's, I think.

[bird]

 

Just to clarify, you think Wander Javier is only slightly below the #5 prospect in all of baseball?

 

 

Not today. Of course not.

 

Just to clarify, Eloy Jiminez was signed in 2014, I believe. At age 20, after 3+ years, he's the #5 prospect in all of baseball. Wander Javier was signed in 2016. At age 18, after 1+ years, he's probably in most expert's 100-150 range and under close scrutiny, just as Eloy was at the same age.

 

Eloy is clearly more valuable, but a huge chunk of that extra value comes from him being closer to MLB and not because his ceiling is necessarily higher. A team would want an added piece to cover this. 

[bird]

 

A notch? Jimenez is the #5 prospect in baseball. I think there is more than a notch between him and Javier right now.

And while Romero is closer to Cease, I think it is pretty universally understood that Cease has more upside ace potential than Romero.

These are important distinctions. These blockbusters aren't generally built on quantity, they are built on quality. If you can't match the quality of the top 2 pieces, you can't really match the deal.

 

 

Tell me how much lower you think Javier's ceiling is compared to Eloy's. I haven't formed my own opinion, but weren't they similarly regarded?

 

I should have been clearer that I was only thinking of their prospective ceilings and not comparing their present value.

[bird]

 

Cespedes was the Tigers. (Confusing because the White Sox also have a pitcher named Fulmer!)

 

 

Derp. Thinking of Sale. And Detroit got the better Fulmer it appears.

[bird]

 

Could, but as of now hasn't.
Jiminez is the #5 prospect in all of baseball. Javier isn't ranked.
They are not even remotely comparable in value.

Perhaps we should offer Gibson for Trout since they were once upon a time in the same tier as prospects?

 

 

No need to get snarky, my friend.

 

Again, a team would want an extra piece for assuming the extra risk, but it's entirely possible that a team might expect Javier to have the better career, and therefore value Javier and an extra prospect or two over Eloy. That's why I named additional prospects. Does that make sense?

[old nurse]

 

Sure, but that doesn't mean they are only a "tick" apart in value today. Two years from now Jimenez might be a rookie of the year candidate like Miguel Sano once was, but you wouldn't say he currently has the value Sano did then.

In your mind, no. In a general manager's mind trading for nothing but potential you could make a case for it. The potential for Javier is the nearly the same as for Jimenez, which is to be very good for their position. That Javier and Jimenez had a 45FV on fangraghs at the same age might be meaningless to you, but potential and development. You also need to keep in mind the two players play very different positions.

[old nurse]

 

Sano was BA #60 at the start of 2011, the year he turned 18. He was #18 the next February, three months before he turned 19. Just FYI.

As the tout has been what MLB  pipeline has for  their rankings as the god of assessments   I looked at their past rankings.  Oh the horror and sin of not looking at every ranking known to man.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Tell me how much lower you think Javier's ceiling is compared to Eloy's. I haven't formed my own opinion, but weren't they similarly regarded?

 

I should have been clearer that I was only thinking of their prospective ceilings and not comparing their present value.

Not really. Check out their Fangraphs pages -- Jimenez has scouting grades of 50/70 for game power and 70/80 for raw power, as compared to Javier's 20/45 and 30/50. Javier is not bad, of course, but his prospect upside is more like Nick Gordon.

 

And it takes a pretty huge discount when he is 2-3 years away from that, and still hasn't left rookie league ball. A lot of uncertainty yet whether he will even reach that point, much less how he will someday transition to the majors.

 

Which is all to say, you'd need more than just "another piece" to make up the gap between them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As the tout has been what MLB pipeline has for their rankings as the god of assessments I looked at their past rankings. Oh the horror and sin of not looking at every ranking known to man.

It appears MLB Pipeline only published a top 50 list in 2011, so it's pretty suspect to claim that being unranked in that is equivalent to being unranked in a top 100 list today.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/16498518

 

Also, it appears Sano did reach #36 in that top 50 list in 2011, likely in a midseason update:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/

[Otto von Ballpark]

In your mind, no. In a general manager's mind trading for nothing but potential you could make a case for it.

Sure, you could make a case for it. But there is little evidence that you could get an actual GM to consider your case.

 

If Javier, Romero, and another piece was enough to get this done, Quintana would have been traded months ago. Looks quite like the White Sox instead waited until they could get what they consider an elite prospect. And the Twins don't have such a player.

[old nurse]

 

Sure, you could make a case for it. But there is little evidence that you could get an actual GM to consider your case.

If Javier, Romero, and another piece was enough to get this done, Quintana would have been traded months ago. Looks quite like the White Sox instead waited until they could get what they consider an elite prospect. And the Twins don't have such a player.

There would be little evidence of any prospect trade happening before it does.

Depends on how the Twins rate Romero and Javier.  If what Javier is showing with the bat this year is his potential  moving forward they likely are not going to move a potentially top 5 shortstop with  another piece you find attractive.  If you are convinced Romero will be a solid mid rotation starter and effectively a ground ball pitcher you are not going to trade that with anther higher ranked player for a number 2 starter.  In 5-10 years there will be the  answer.     In trading for potential the studues have shown Jimenex will be the stud player 36% of the time. Cease about 7%. Jimenez will likely be a solid player, but it is a 44% chance he ends up a replacement level player.. Cease still can develop and move up the rankings. Or he might not.

 

What makes Jimenez tradeable is that the Cubs must believe in Scharwber and Heywood will be unmoveable with that contract  The Cubs are a bit desperate.  Although significantly behind, they still have a shot. It has been done. The Cubs have been beneficiaries of desperate teams, now they pay.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Two more thoughts:

 

1) This only increases Santana's value. I'd hold out for one very good prospect. But then you might as well trade Dozier too.

 

2) What are people's predictions on the Twins record over the next 9 games?? THAT will determine whether Santana goes or not. My guess is 3-6. Good bye Ervin.

 

I don't agree it increases Santana's value.

 

They got about what was predicted, based on the excess value of his small contract, and what prospects are worth.

[mazeville]

 

Maybe you should reread my comment. I did not say they didn't have assets to trade. I stated that they did not have the level of assets that CWS had and thus would not have acquired theassets that they have. Even in your response you state that very thing. I humbling caution all of us not to read something in our comments that aren't there.

 

OK, fabulous. But then you have to go back and reread my original comment because I didn't say whatsoever that the Twins had Quintana-like assets.

 

I simply said that the Twins didn't tear it down the way the White Sox are currently doing -- which is what they should have done. They had assets, a couple of which would have yielded good returns. 

 

I humbly caution you to do the same thing you're cautioning me to do. 

[biggentleben]

 

Not really. Check out their Fangraphs pages -- Jimenez has scouting grades of 50/70 for game power and 70/80 for raw power, as compared to Javier's 20/45 and 30/50. Javier is not bad, of course, but his prospect upside is more like Nick Gordon.

And it takes a pretty huge discount when he is 2-3 years away from that, and still hasn't left rookie league ball. A lot of uncertainty yet whether he will even reach that point, much less how he will someday transition to the majors.

Which is all to say, you'd need more than just "another piece" to make up the gap between them.

 

I will plug into this that Javier is considered an almost certain shortstop, and an elite defensive 2B/3B if he is moved off of short. Jimenez was considered a likely DH. Big arm, but routes, instincts, glove are all below average in the outfield, in spite of the highlight play at the Futures Game last season. That also goes into a GM's evaluation.

[biggentleben]

I think one thing not mentioned on here is that the Twins would have to pay a premium in prospects to acquire Quintana because they are trading in division.

 

I'd probably say you headline a deal with two of Gordon/Romero/Gonsalves, then add in one of Javier/Diaz/Kirilloff, and likely one more upside guy in the realm of Baddoo, Graterol, or Balazovic just to get to the table, and it may take two of that second group to get the deal done in division.

 

To get Q could hurt the system depth for sure, but that doesn't mean getting an equivalent starter on the market will...