Article: Twins 2, Seattle 1: Pitching, Defense and a Castro Blast

[Tom Froemming]

Kyle Gibson had his best outing of the year, Jason Castro homered, Brandon Kintzler got right back on the horse and the Twins out-gloved the Mariners to win late Thursday night.Twins 2, Seattle 1

Box Score

 

Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WinEx.png

Gibson kept it simple, essentially ditching everything but his two-seamer and curveball. That’s especially of note since the curve is usually Gibby’s least-used pitch (13.3 percent).

Download attachment: GibsonPitches.png

Image above via Baseball Savant

Download attachment: Gibby2.png

Image above via Brooks Baseball

 

We’ll see whether this becomes a new trend for Kyle or if he simply had a better feel for that pitch last night than others. His catcher provided the big offensive blast of the night. Here’s a look at the Castro homer from @MLBBarrelAlert on Twitter:

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[Old Twins Cap]

Lost a game they  should have won on Wednesday.

 

Won a game they should have lost on Thursday, given their anemic offense and starting Gibson.

 

That would suggest a .500 team.   Except they are on the road, playing a hot team and carrying a 4-3 record on this West Coast swing.

 

Be something to see them take 2 of 3 in Frisco and fly home 6-4.  Solid.

[Cody Christie]

These write-ups look really slick. Nice work, Tom!

[Dantes929]

Win expectancy chart shows Joe Mauer error but I am thinking that was the Cano error in the Mauer at bat.    Of course Bremer had to mention Mauer had no errors on the season so I was guessing one was coming but I don't remember seeing it, plus the chart takes a dip toward the Twins after that play..

 

Gibson looked really good .    Before the game they talked about how Bergman added and subtracted on his pitches and how Gibson needed to do that as well.    I thought good luck with that but he actually did have a much better mix than he has in over a year.   When Blyleven gushes about your curve ball maybe you should be thinking "HOF curve baller loves my curve ball.    Hmmm...maybe I should throw it more"   What a boost it would be if Gibson gave us a bunch of quality starts.

 

[Doomtints]

Castro's OPS is an enigma. Don't expect it to last. Same goes for his defense.

[Tom Froemming]

 

These write-ups look really slick. Nice work, Tom!

Thanks Cody!

 

Win expectancy chart shows Joe Mauer error but I am thinking that was the Cano error in the Mauer at bat.  

Correct, not sure why they list it like that.

[Willihammer]

Tom, thanks again. I didn't catch the game but just watched the condensed version on mlb.com:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1479523183/6817-condensed-game-minsea/?game_pk=491000

 

According to Brooks, Gibson threw 33 curveballs last night, the most of any game in his career. 20 of them were strikes, including 6 whiffs. Is there still hope for Gibby after all?

 

Buxton, my goodness. He must be a gold glove contender. Who's better ?Couple more incredible catches last night. I would love to know the statcast / difficulty rating of that 400 foot liner off the bat of Cano. Ball was hit right at him, those are tough to read off the bat.

Buxton is a weapon on the bases. Two base advance on a past ball in the 9th, wow.

 

Rogers-Kintzler have been a good 8-9th inning duo, but they need help. How long before these two burn out?

Edited June 9, 2017 by Willihammer

[bluechipper]

Gibson's pitching, especially his curveball, was the highlight of the game for me.

 

On the negative side, the Twins offense is continuing the habit of making some mediocre starting pitchers look really good.

[bluechipper]

 

Castro's OPS is an enigma. Don't expect it to last. Same goes for his defense.

Castro is known as a good defensive catcher, so I'm not sure what you're going for there.

 

As for the offense, Castro is striking out less than usual for his career, but he's also got the lowest babip of any of his full MLB seasons so far. I see staying near 100 OPS+ being realistic for him.

[bizaff]

Awesome game summary.. love the charts, love the clips, love the links.

[Darius]

Gibson was sharp. They need him to keep pitching that from here on out of this team has a chance. I still like his stuff and think there's a chance he puts together and turns himself into a darn good middle of the rotation to back end starter.

 

I mean, this isn't Phil Hughes or Santiago and their BP stuff we're talking about here. Everyone likes to talk like Gibson is a total bum. He has excellent stuff, just needs to tighten up the command, and he could potentially take off. When you're as talent strapped in the starting pitching department as this organization is, you need to keep running him out there.

 

This team still needs to revamp its coaching staffs throughout the organization, IMO. All of the sudden Meyer is throwing fire again, and putting up very nice starts for the Angels. The Aaron Hicks thing speaks for itself (and on the other side of the coin, JR Murphy being relatively effective for the Yanks and being totally awful here).

 

There is decades worth of evidence of this team totally lacking any sort of coaching/developmental skill. The point im trying to make here: Who knows where Gibson would be right now in a competent organization. I don't think he's the known commodity most seem to think he is.

[Doomtints]

 

Castro is known as a good defensive catcher, so I'm not sure what you're going for there.

 

As for the offense, Castro is striking out less than usual for his career, but he's also got the lowest babip of any of his full MLB seasons so far. I see staying near 100 OPS+ being realistic for him.

 

I didn't say he was bad at defense. I'm saying his defensive numbers are way above his career norms.

[Dantes929]

 

Gibson's pitching, especially his curveball, was the highlight of the game for me.

 

On the negative side, the Twins offense is continuing the habit of making some mediocre starting pitchers look really good.

I don't know if you saw the preview on Bergman.    He had a horrible start against the Nationals in bad weather where he gave up like 10 earned runs or something ridiculous like that.     In all other starts aside from that one he has well below a 2.00 ERA this year.      I thought our odds of winning that game were lower than almost any other this year with the way Gibson was pitching so far this year and how hot Seattle has been.      We were lucky to beat him.

[h2oface]

Kintzler pitches ninth again. Big sigh of relief. Tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc............

[jorgenswest]

I am not looking at the data but my impression from watching Gibson is that he is getting strike one much more often than earlier in the season. If he gets the first strike, the curve ball has a chance to be more effective. Batter's can't let it go and sit on the fastball like they can when they are ahead in the count.

 

So I wonder...

 

Is he getting the first strike more often?

Is he getting ahead with the fastball?

Has his curve ball been more effective?

 

I am hoping that someone can point to a pitch sequencing change since his return. If that is the case, there might be reason to hope that he can be a useful number 4/5 starter.

[Guest]

Brandon Kintzler is tied with fifteen other pitchers for eighth in the number of blown saves, with three. Of those sixteen pitchers, he has the most saves, with 16. Fernando Rodney is next, with 15 saves, and then Roberto Osuna with 14. Kintzler is fourth in the league in saves.

 

Of the seven pitchers with three blown saves who have a better ERA than Kintzler, most have given up more walks than his seven, except Osuna with two and the Braves' Jose Ramirez, who's also given up seven. Most of the seven, however. Have given up fewer home runs than Kintzler's three, except that Mychal Givens and David Phelps have given up four and Brad Brach has also given up three.

 

Kintzler is not as bad as some of the moaning.

[LeatherAntenna]

Love the graphs and graphics! Especially the home run display.