Sano= Early MVP favorite?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Oh boy, another WAR sucks thread.

 

At the risk of quoting myself a second time today.....dam$#&^^&$#, I got sucked in again.

[jimmer]

Sorry, my apologies. I wasn't saying "you" personally, more in general how the question and WAR are approached.

 

I would say though, if you don't feel as though pitching and hitting WAR is comparable, I wonder again why we use the same term for it. Doesn't that lend itself to unnecessary confusion? (And, again, I know that isn't your call or anything, just an observation)

i use it to put players in categories. MVP t, superstar, all star, good player average players role type players, scrub. And i see no reason to compare pitchers and positiin players.

[HitInAPinch]

 

We should stop talking about WAR. The issue is settled.

War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
Say it again, why'all

[Linus]

Meanwhile, that Sano can really hit the ball. I think he's got a slump or two ahead of him that will bring us back to earth but I am betting that by the end of the year we are pleasantly surprised with his fielding.

[brvama]

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

Say it again, why'all

Well, that sure ages you, I mean us!

[akmanak]

If Sano plays like this the entire year, hands down he will be MVP.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Sano plays like this the entire year, hands down he will be MVP.

 

over Trout and Lindor? Hands down?

[yarnivek1972]

WAR said that Abad, Kintzler and Rosario were all significantly more valuable then Sano last year, and that Nunez (traded half way into season) was still twice as valuable as Sano.

Sorry, it's a flawed stat. Especially when factoring in defense for non elite positions (CF/SS) and non elite defenders at those positions and every other position.

 

Nothing is more over-rated in WAR than "great" RF/LF or 1B/3B defense.

 

 

Did you see Sano play last year? He wasn't very good offensively and was downright horrid defensively.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Did you see Sano play last year? He wasn't very good offensively and was downright horrid defensively.

 

Or Robbie Grossman?

[jimmer]

Indeed. But fip and innings tells a significantly better story than fWAR.

Well, again, IP is part of FIP, so you're good with FIP, but your issue with the fWAR for pitchers is the league adjustment they put in (AL vs NL) and the comparison to league average for the specific year the put in? 

 

We certainly can't say an NL pitcher in 2017 with a FIP of 3.00 is the same as an AL pitcher in 2017 with a FIP of 3.00 or either the same as a pitcher in either league in, say, 1970 with a FIP of 3.00.

[drjim]

Well, again, IP is part of FIP, so you're good with FIP, but your issue with the fWAR for pitchers is the league adjustment they put in (AL vs NL) and the comparison to league average for the specific year the put in?

 

We certainly can't say an NL pitcher in 2017 with a FIP of 3.00 is the same as an AL pitcher in 2017 with a FIP of 3.00 or either the same as a pitcher in either league in, say, 1970 with a FIP of 3.00.

IP is part of fip? I thought it was a ratio of k, bb, and hr rates.

 

There is some historical value to WAR but I'd use era+ personally.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IP is part of fip? I thought it was a ratio of k, bb, and hr rates.

It has to be or the statistic is meaningless.

 

A FIP of 0.8 in 2.2 IP is meaningless.

 

A FIP of 0.8 in 220 IP is historically good.

 

But FIP, like ERA, does not count innings.

[jimmer]

IP is part of fip? I thought it was a ratio of k, bb, and hr rates.

 

There is some historical value to WAR but I'd use era+ personally.

Yes,FIP has IP included in the formula.

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant.  FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP).

 

And I guess I don't understand why you'd use ERA + over FIP when you prefer FIP to ERA now (thankfully) and when FIP uses lgERA in it's FIP constant equation (which is part of the overall FIP equation).

 

Also, going a bit further FIP- adjusts for park and league.

[jimmer]

 

If Sano plays like this the entire year, hands down he will be MVP.

Sano's wRC+=210, Trout's is 221 (leading the AL).  So if they both play the same as they are now, Trout still wins.

[jimmer]

 

Meanwhile, that Sano can really hit the ball. I think he's got a slump or two ahead of him that will bring us back to earth but I am betting that by the end of the year we are pleasantly surprised with his fielding.

I HOPE he can continue to be close to league average.  I haven't been impressed with his defense this year (or, at least, when I compare it to many 3Bs).  For HIM, he is playing decent so far.  Again, hopefully he can maintain that through the season.  Would I bet on it?  No.

[drjim]

Yes,FIP has IP included in the formula.

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant. FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP).

 

And I guess I don't understand why you'd use ERA + over FIP when you prefer FIP to ERA now (thankfully) and when FIP uses lgERA in it's FIP constant equation (which is part of the overall FIP equation).

 

Also, going a bit further FIP- adjusts for park and league.

That makes sense. I was thinking of IP in the sense of WAR, which is the wrong way to think of it.

 

FIP is a rate stat, vs WAR being a counting stat. I prefer rate stats and then find out how many innings, vs having the innings baked into the stat.

[jimmer]

 

That makes sense. I was thinking of IP in the sense of WAR, which is the wrong way to think of it.

FIP is a rate stat, vs WAR being a counting stat. I prefer rate stats and then find out how many innings, vs having the innings baked into the stat.

So then you don't like FIP because it bakes in IP?

[drjim]

Yes,FIP has IP included in the formula.

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant. FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP).

 

And I guess I don't understand why you'd use ERA + over FIP when you prefer FIP to ERA now (thankfully) and when FIP uses lgERA in it's FIP constant equation (which is part of the overall FIP equation).

 

Also, going a bit further FIP- adjusts for park and league.

For the second part, it is my bias of ERA showing what actually happened (runs and outs) vs fip showing what is likely to happen going forward (based on most critical inputs).

[jimmer]

 

For the second part, it is my bias of ERA showing what actually happened (runs and outs) vs fip showing what is likely to happen going forward (based on most critical inputs).

See, I don't buy ERA is what happened.  ERA is what happened if you want to include team defense and 30 different scorers opinions of what is or isn't an error.

 

Why FIP:

Ultimately, we want to use statistics that allow us to isolate the performance of the player we are attempting to analyze. ERA or RA9 do a terrific job telling us how many runs were scored while the pitcher was on the mound, but they do not necessarily tell us how well the pitcher performed because the number of runs a pitcher allowed is also dependent on their defense, luck, and the order in which events happened (often called sequencing).

 

FIP is an attempt to isolate the performance of the pitcher by using only those outcomes we know do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.

As a result, a statistic (FIP) that estimates their ERA based on their strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs while assuming average luck on balls in play, defense, and sequencing is a better reflection of that pitcher’s performance over a given period of time. This is highly related to the reasons why we care so much about Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), specifically the fact that pitchers have very little control over their BABIP allowed.

[drjim]

So then you don't like FIP because it bakes in IP?

I like it because it's a rate stat, not a counting stat. I don't like WAR because it bakes in IP as a multiplier.

 

I like IP as a standalone stat.

[drjim]

See, I don't buy ERA is what happened. ERA is what happened if you want to include team defense and 30 different scorers opinions of what is or isn't an error.

It generally washes out over large enough samples, and I'm hesitant to provide today's assumptions to baseball 40 years ago.

[jimmer]

 

It generally washes out over large enough samples, and I'm hesitant to provide today's assumptions to baseball 40 years ago.

over a long career FIP and ERA can get close, but I thought we were looking at season versus season.

[jimmer]

 

It generally washes out over large enough samples, and I'm hesitant to provide today's assumptions to baseball 40 years ago.

not sure if you saw my edit earlier

 

Why FIP:
Ultimately, we want to use statistics that allow us to isolate the performance of the player we are attempting to analyze. ERA or RA9 do a terrific job telling us how many runs were scored while the pitcher was on the mound, but they do not necessarily tell us how well the pitcher performed because the number of runs a pitcher allowed is also dependent on their defense, luck, and the order in which events happened (often called sequencing).

FIP is an attempt to isolate the performance of the pitcher by using only those outcomes we know do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.

As a result, a statistic (FIP) that estimates their ERA based on their strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs while assuming average luck on balls in play, defense, and sequencing is a better reflection of that pitcher’s performance over a given period of time. This is highly related to the reasons why we care so much about Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), specifically the fact that pitchers have very little control over their BABIP allowed.

 

So, for me, if looking at a pitcher's performance, FIP.   If looking at pitchers performance along with things quite a bit of of his control (to include other players' performance), ERA.

[drjim]

over a long career FIP and ERA can get close, but I thought we were looking at season versus season.

I thought you referenced the 70s.

 

My general rule is fip in short term or in recent years, era+ over longer stretches and longer gaps of years.

[jimmer]

 

I thought you referenced the 70s.
 

In regards to fWAR, because fWAR takes FIP (a stat you like) and then factors in league average and league adjustment.

[drjim]

not sure if you saw my edit earlier

 

Why FIP:

Ultimately, we want to use statistics that allow us to isolate the performance of the player we are attempting to analyze. ERA or RA9 do a terrific job telling us how many runs were scored while the pitcher was on the mound, but they do not necessarily tell us how well the pitcher performed because the number of runs a pitcher allowed is also dependent on their defense, luck, and the order in which events happened (often called sequencing).

 

FIP is an attempt to isolate the performance of the pitcher by using only those outcomes we know do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.

As a result, a statistic (FIP) that estimates their ERA based on their strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs while assuming average luck on balls in play, defense, and sequencing is a better reflection of that pitcher’s performance over a given period of time. This is highly related to the reasons why we care so much about Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), specifically the fact that pitchers have very little control over their BABIP allowed.

I think this is true in small samples and is generally a good bet to be predictive in the near future. But there are enough examples of players over and under performing fip over large samples that I eventually move to the literal runs and outs.

 

To put it another way, over large enough samples, I do think pitchers have some control over the amount of hits allowed and overall sequencing.

[jimmer]

 

I think this is true in small samples and is generally a good bet to be predictive in the near future. But there are enough examples of players over and under performing fip over large samples that I eventually move to the literal runs and outs.

To put it another way, over large enough samples, I do think pitchers have some control over the amount of hits allowed and overall sequencing.

for me, if looking at a pitcher's performance, FIP. If looking at pitchers performance along with things quite a bit of of his control (to include other players' performance), ERA.

[drjim]

In regards to fWAR, because fWAR takes FIP (a stat you like) and then factors in league average and league adjustment.

I will say that if I wanted to do an extremely quick comparison over eras I would use at fWAR.

 

But I'm not all that interested in cross era comparisons, the game is too different.

[jimmer]

 

I will say that if I wanted to do an extremely quick comparison over eras I would use at fWAR.

But I'm not all that interested in cross era comparisons, the game is too different.

Not sure why fWAR would be what you look at over eras, but not season to season. As good as FIP is, it doesn't take into account league average or the league the pitcher pitches in.  It would make one think a NL pitcher with a FIP of 3.00 is just as impressive as an AL pitcher with a FIP of 3.00.  

 

And we've been doing the adjustment in our heads way before fWAR or bWAR existed anyway.  We all do that adjustment when talking about pitchers who move from league to league.  Say things like, the NL pitcher is coming to the AL so we shouldn't expect him to do as well, and vice versa. fWAR just takes it into account for us.  But if it's a rate stat you like, at least FIP- would get us closer than FIP (and way closer than ERA)

 

But, anyway, I appreciate the discussion.

[Darius]

If you go by literal definition of "Most Valuable Player," he should be in the conversation. How many wins would this team have without him? Certainly wouldn't be over .500.

 

Have you seen the nation-wide love affair with Judge for the Yankees, and his 11 home runs and 11 RBIs (exaggeration), on that slow pitch softball diamond they call an MLB baseball field in New York?

 

Granted, the guy absolutely crushes the ball, but they're all but anointing him the greatest hitter of all time in the mainstream media already. I haven't heard Sano's name mentioned by anyone outside of Minnesota.

 

When you're playing for a team like the Twins, you have to do a little extra.