Souhan killing my optimism buzz

[Brandon Warne]

 

You know he missed a year due to Tommy John surgery, right?

 

Of course. He's still not particularly special or anything, though. It hurts that he was a college arm who had all those lost years due to command, too

[gocgo]

I'm gonna restore the optimism buzz by asking this - would it be too much to have the announcer say "Minnesota Twins fans, let's hear it for your AL Central leading Twins!"?

 

In other related optimistic notes, the Twins are ranked 2nd in pitching for all of MLB!

 

Gotta strike while the iron is hot!

[scottz]

Supposedly they offered the most money to Napoli, but he went to TX.

 

Supposedly even a two year deal....wow.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/mike-napoli

Yeah, not what I would do either. But let's say they don't really value Vargas or Park...wouldn't trying to sign Napoli be logical? Again, assuming they'd try to trade Vargas or slip him through waivers in such a scenario. A two year Maurer-Napoli platoon?

 

Maybe I'm reaching, but I'm willing to let "the plan" run for a bit, even if I don't especially understand it or what parts I see being executed.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, not what I would do either. But let's say they don't really value Vargas or Park...wouldn't trying to sign Napoli be logical? Again, assuming they'd try to trade Vargas or slip him through waivers in such a scenario. A two year Maurer-Napoli platoon?

 

Maybe I'm reaching, but I'm willing to let "the plan" run for a bit, even if I don't especially understand it or what parts I see being executed.

Imo.... Not if you are realistic about this year, no. Trying to be not awful is not a rebuild strategy. And yes, imo, this team is not good this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Imo.... Not if you are realistic about this year, no. Trying to be not awful is not a rebuild strategy. And yes, imo, this team is not good this year.

Listening to Hunter and Hawkins on opening day was interesting. Falvey had them compile a list of clubhouse guys they'd like to see on the team and then went out and pursued those players.

 

What a peculiar way to assemble a roster. I'm intrigued because it's unlikely Falvey is doing this without data analysis involved and a sense of what he wants to accomplish.

[GP830]

 

I still don't understand why everybody is so high on Vargas.. He had a good streak last year and then promptly turned right back into the same mediocre to poor hitter he had been before the streak. His season statistics look good but they are inflated by the hot streak. It may just be a normal part of development, but there is nothing we've seen that suggests that he's going to be good long-term, particularly since he has to show his value with the bat because he is a mediocre first baseman at best.

 

The reality with Vargas, I believe, is that he's a little too close in body-type and playing style to The One That Got Away, for comfort. I think people have a real fear of missing out on what he could become. 

Additionally, a switch-hitting, power-minded DH is a pretty sweet luxury if he's firing on all cylinders. 
 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Listening to Hunter and Hawkins on opening day was interesting. Falvey had them compile a list of clubhouse guys they'd like to see on the team and then went out and pursued those players.

What a peculiar way to assemble a roster. I'm intrigued because it's unlikely Falvey is doing this without data analysis involved and a sense of what he wants to accomplish.

 

Interesting. I'd prefer they pursue guys who don't swing and miss, and how make other guys swing and miss. That seems more important (note I said more, that doesn't mean leadership doesn't matter).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting. I'd prefer they pursue guys who don't swing and miss, and how make other guys swing and miss. That seems more important (note I said more, that doesn't mean leadership doesn't matter).

Same here but we're using conventional sabr thinking in that argument... I'm starting to suspect Falvey may be a step or two ahead of us in that regard.

 

Maybe it won't work but it's going to lead to a lot of spilled ink over the coming years, that's for sure.

 

This is the question I've been asking myself over the past few days: in our trumpeting of 2000s sabr conventional thinking, are we becoming the next generation of "rub some dirt on it and walk it off" baseball fans of the late 90s and early 2000s? What if Falvey is actually executing the next step of moneyball and we're too damned dumb to see it?

 

The Opening Day lineup baffled me. The statements by Hunter and Hawkins added to the confusion. We all know Falvey is a smart guy so the question I keep coming back to is "What am I missing here?"

 

Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's not.

 

*shrugs*

[Mike Sixel]

 

Same here but we're using conventional sabr thinking in that argument... I'm starting to suspect Falvey may be a step or two ahead of us in that regard.

 

Maybe it won't work but it's going to lead to a lot of spilled ink over the coming years, that's for sure.

 

This is the question I've been asking myself over the past few days: in our trumpeting of 2000s sabr conventional thinking, are we becoming the "rub some dirt on it and walk it off" baseball fans of the late 90s and early 2000s? What if Falvey is actually executing the next step of moneyball and we're too damned dumb to see it?

 

The Opening Day lineup baffled me. The statements by Hunter and Hawkins added to the confusion. We all know Falvey is a smart guy so the question I keep coming back to is "What am I missing here?"

 

Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's not.

 

*shrugs*

 

Clearly we don't have the data, or time, he does....so it's certainly possible he thinks this team is going to compete this year, and should sign a stop gap DH and 2 RPs over 35....but if he has data that indicates that, no one else on the planet has that data.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Clearly we don't have the data, or time, he does....so it's certainly possible he thinks this team is going to compete this year, and should sign a stop gap DH and 2 RPs over 35....but if he has data that indicates that, no one else on the planet has that data.

You're essentially arguing Falvey might be delusional, Mike.

 

We know it's highly unlikely he's delusional so maybe there's something we're missing. Maybe these roster changes aren't out of a misguided desire to "compete", maybe they're to supplement the players already on the roster and make the team better through some unknown analysis we're not seeing.

 

Or maybe Falvey is just wrong. Either way, I'm curious to see how it all plays out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're essentially arguing Falvey might be delusional, Mike.

 

We know it's highly unlikely he's delusional so maybe there's something we're missing. Maybe these roster changes aren't out of a misguided desire to "compete", maybe they're to supplement the players already on the roster and make the team better through some unknown analysis we're not seeing.

 

Or maybe Falvey is just wrong. Either way, I'm curious to see how it all plays out.

 

Fair. As you can surmise, I don't really care about this year all that much, other than seeing progress from the youth, and providing hope for 2018 and beyond. I fail to see how adding veterans, and NOT adding rookies to mentor, advances that process. But, like you say, he knows more than we do, and we are in the phase of their leadership where we just have to wait 2-4 years to see if they know what they are doing long term.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair. As you can surmise, I don't really care about this year all that much, other than seeing progress from the youth, and providing hope for 2018 and beyond. I fail to see how adding veterans, and NOT adding rookies to mentor, advances that process. But, like you say, he knows more than we do, and we are in the phase of their leadership where we just have to wait 2-4 years to see if they know what they are doing long term.

I certainly agree the here and now is frustrating but I'm willing to give it more time to see how the front office reacts to in-season issues.

[drjim]

 

Same here but we're using conventional sabr thinking in that argument... I'm starting to suspect Falvey may be a step or two ahead of us in that regard.

 

Maybe it won't work but it's going to lead to a lot of spilled ink over the coming years, that's for sure.

 

This is the question I've been asking myself over the past few days: in our trumpeting of 2000s sabr conventional thinking, are we becoming the next generation of "rub some dirt on it and walk it off" baseball fans of the late 90s and early 2000s? What if Falvey is actually executing the next step of moneyball and we're too damned dumb to see it?

 

The Opening Day lineup baffled me. The statements by Hunter and Hawkins added to the confusion. We all know Falvey is a smart guy so the question I keep coming back to is "What am I missing here?"

 

Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's not.

 

*shrugs*

 

I absolutely think the sabr conventional thinking has become to ingrained and inflexible. Most of what I read just seems to rehash the same stuff but replacing the names and stats, or an endless repeating of conventional sabr narrative.

 

To put it another way, it now seems that all of the front offices are more or less on board with 99% of the statistical analysis in analyzing players. There is certainly going to be value in pushing the next frontiers (medical, psychological, physiological, etc), but there does seem to be some potential value to be captured by returning to some old schools interpersonal relations, both in the org and on the roster.

 

Of course, I always thought that was a potential advantage for the Twins under Terry Ryan, but they also blundered some pretty obvious things that would more than wipe it out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I absolutely think the sabr conventional thinking has become to ingrained and inflexible. Most of what I read just seems to rehash the same stuff but replacing the names and stats, or an endless repeating of conventional sabr narrative.

 

To put it another way, it now seems that all of the front offices are more or less on board with 99% of the statistical analysis in analyzing players. There is certainly going to be value in pushing the next frontiers (medical, psychological, physiological, etc), but there does seem to be some potential value to be captured by returning to some old schools interpersonal relations, both in the org and on the roster.

 

Of course, I always thought that was a potential advantage for the Twins under Terry Ryan, but they also blundered some pretty obvious things that would more than wipe it out.

I don't know if Falvey is employing these ideas but I'm starting to suspect this is the case.

 

Think about the decision to hire Thad Levine. Yeah, he's a highly regarded exec who deserved the job but he's closer to Terry Ryan than he is Theo Epstein.

 

Why that choice? Don't get me wrong, I liked the choice, but it's a bit outside the box if the organization plans to play by the conventional sabr playbook.

[mikecgrimes]

Having a perfect bullpen through 6 innings maybe has tricked me into this thought, but I'd like to go the whole season with 13 pitchers.  The same games where the bigger bench is needed are the extra inning games where the extra pitcher is an even bigger advantage.  Why would you ever need to make more then 3 bench moves in a 9 inning game.  You would make 6 or 7 if you could sometimes, but you sure don't need to.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Having a perfect bullpen through 6 innings maybe has tricked me into this thought, but I'd like to go the whole season with 13 pitchers.  The same games where the bigger bench is needed are the extra inning games where the extra pitcher is an even bigger advantage.  Why would you ever need to make more then 3 bench moves in a 9 inning game.  You would make 6 or 7 if you could sometimes, but you sure don't need to.

Potentially, there's nothing strictly wrong with that. But then your bench guys better be awfully good. Backup catcher, Escobar...IDK, but DS isn't it. Almost has to be another starting caliber OF at that point. Tough to make work, just drop to 12 Ps.

[Eris]

 

Potentially, there's nothing strictly wrong with that. But then your bench guys better be awfully good. Backup catcher, Escobar...IDK, but DS isn't it. Almost has to be another starting caliber OF at that point. Tough to make work, just drop to 12 Ps.

 

I won't try to defend D. Santana's poor performance, however a player who can cover 6 defensive positions is exactly the allows a team to go with 13 pitchers.  The idea (and possibly the skill set) is there, unfortunately the execution has been lacking.  According to a recent statcast article on the Twins outfield, Santana had the 3rd highest arm strength on competitive throws last year.  However, this translated into only 2 assists.  (Data on assists is from fangraphs).

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/221699212/minnesota-twins-2017-statcast-preview/