Baseball Bat GM Blue Print

[Baseball Bat]

I am a little late to the party on creating an offseason blueprint for the Twins. Granted, I am cheating a bit here as the Twins started making some moves yesterday. However, that was in fact what got me in the spirit to create my blueprint. The Twins outrighted Trevor Plouffe, Juan Centeno, and Adam Brett Walker was claimed off waivers. In the case of Plouffe and Centeno, I think it was the correct move. I advocated trading Plouffe last offseason. Based on the Todd Frazier return, Plouffe wouldn’t have garnered much in the market. However, something is better than nothing, so I stand by my belief that the old regime made a mistake carrying Plouffe into 2016. The Twins would have gotten even less this offseason if they tried to trade him, so I think Falvey and Levine made the right decision in simply cutting bait with him and opening up 3rd base, and $9 million. I was a little saddened to see Adam Brett Walker go. I’ve always been a dreamer when it comes to him. Love the power, and would have liked to see what could have been. I guess the Twins have enough guys that can hit for power and break strikeout records and ABW had no realistic path to contribute anytime soon. In a way, this move makes sense after analyzing it.

The Twins also added Daniel Palka, Felix Jorge, Zach Granite, Engelb Vielma, Fernando Romero, and Mitch Garver to the 40-man roster. All of these additions make sense and I am not terribly concerned with losing anyone meaningful in the rule 5 draft. The interesting thing is that the 40-man now sits at 39 players. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins did offer a Free Agent yesterday. It was unclear who that player is but I am sure Jason Castro is a candidate. Better late than never, here is how I would do the remainder of the offseason if I were Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

 

Arbitration:

Trevor Plouffe ($9 Million): Already declined, agree with this decision as addressed above.

 

Kyle Gibson ($2.5 Million): Accept. $2.5 Million for a guy who could give you 200 innings and an ERA in the 3’s is an easy decision. Gibson was bad and unhealthy last season, but he still has potential to be apart of the Twins long-term team as a solid 3 or 4 starter. Gibson could be a trade candidate if he has a good first half and 2017 is lost.

 

Hector Santiago ($8 Million): Decline. I decline based on my other moves that you will see further down. I’ve seen enough from Santiago. Wasn’t the reason of getting rid of Nolasco to get some money off the books? I don’t understand why the Twins would pay $8 million next year for Hector Santiago who will likely block someone like Berrios from developing or Trevor May from returning to the rotation. He is a lot like Plouffe, no future here. I say cut him lose or see if you can trade him.    

     

Eduardo Escobar ($3.5 Million): Accept. We know what Eddie is. A decent fielder and .265 hitter with a bit of pop. Above all else, he is a great clubhouse guy and that is exactly what you want from a utility player. With all the uncertainty surrounding shortstop right now, he can always start the bulk of the season there. Plus, who else are the Twins going to find, Erick Aybar? I stick with Escobar as a utility guy at worst. Easy decision

 

Brandon Kintzler ($2.5 Million): Accept. A little disappointed the Twins could not trade him last July. That was probably the height of his value. I do still think he can be a great groundball guy in the 6th or 7th inning. The price is great, this was actually an excellent find from the former regime last offseason.

 

Ryan Pressly ($1.5 Million): Accept. At 1.5, Pressly is an even more valuable tender than Kintzler. Pressly has the stuff to be an 8th or 9th inning guy long-term, Kintzler likely does not. Ideally, Pressly is the Twins long-term setup man. I think that closer is a stretch, and I am still holding my breath on Nick Burdi filling that role by 2018. 

 

Other 40-man Roster Moves

Remove Buddy Boshers and Michael Tonkin

 

Boshers was fun, but I wouldn't bring him back. I'm done with Tonkin. 

 

Brings 40-man Roster down to 37

 

Free Agency

 

Sign C Jason Castro for 3 years, $25 million

Castro provides great pitch framing, which Falvey clearly loves. He is a clear defensive upgrade over Kurt Suzuki and would be an ideal candidate to catch 100 to 120 games for the Twins while JR Murphy catches the remainder. Castro is not too far removed from his 2013 all-star campaign where he was also great offensively. I fear that this might be too obvious of a move and that the market for Castro is going to drive his price up to where it is not worth it. However, if the price stays in the 3 years, 20-some million, I’d like to see the Twins sign Castro. He would help right away, and likely still be around when the Twins are looking to make a run in 2019 or so.

 

Sign OF Carlos Gomez for 1 year, $12 million

I don’t know how Scott Boras thinks that Gomez is getting a 5-year deal. I doubt anyone offers more than 2 years, and I am even skeptical about that. If I am Gomez and Boras, I want a 1-year prove it deal that still pays handsomely. This is what this deal would do, and it provides low risk for the Twins. A 4 man outfield rotation of Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and Buxton would be fun to watch play out. In that situation, Rosario would likely be the 4th outfielder. If Gomez can return to form, he would be another great flip candidate. If he can’t, then the Twins likely won’t be making a run at the playoffs anyways and they can just cut ties with him.

 

Sign RP Drew Storen for 2 years, $10 million

Projecting the bullpen gets very difficult. The Twins have been fans of Storen for a long time. I have no idea what the new regime thinks of him but I have a hard time believing they won’t sign at least one arm to add to the bullpen. This could be a real win-win. Storen would likely want an opportunity to close again, and the Twins would likely give him a shot at that at some point this season.

 

Trades

 

Trade 2B Brian Dozier to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Jose De Leon and 2B Willie Calhoun.

 

If I’m the Twins, I ask for Julio Urias. The Dodgers almost certainly say no to that (as they should). The Dodgers would probably part with De Leon if it meant getting Dozier in return. Only De Leon doesn’t get it done for me. I would ask for more than that, and with a farm system as rich as the Dodgers, I am staying there and asking for another one of there 8ish top 100 prospects. Willie Calhoun is consistently rated in the top 100 by the likes of MLB.com and Baseball America. He is not viewed as a top line prospect, but would be a nice addition to the farm and the Twins middle infield future. 

 

Trade SP Ervin Santana and pay $10 million of his remaining $27 million ($5 million annually) and Danny Santana to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Mitch Keller

 

I will probably get the most flack for this idea. I have heard there is no steam on Ervin Santana this offseason. But I really think the Twins should be open to trading him and eating some of his money. Ervin Santana at $8 million a year for the next two years coming off the season that he did looks like a really attractive commodity that should net a top 100 prospect. If the Pirates decide they want to be contenders this season, they will almost certainly need to add some pitching. With a very weak starting pitching FA market, Santana’s value could be driven up. Teams like the Yankees, Jays, Mariners, Rangers could also be in the mix. This all hinges on how desperate teams get after they realize they still need starting pitching after whiffing on the clowns available.

 

25-Man Roster

 

Starting Rotation - Age (April 1) - Salary (Millions)
SP Kyle Gibson - 29 - $2.5
SP Phil Hughes - 30 - $13.2
SP Jose Berrios - 22 - $0.5
SP Trevor May - 27 - $0.5
SP Jose De Leon - 24 - $0.5

 

Relievers
RP Tyler Duffey - 26 -  $0.5
RP JT Chargois - 26 - $0.5
RP Brandon Kintzler - 32 - $2.5
RP Taylor Rogers - 26 - $0.5
SUP Drew Storen - 29 - $5.0
SUP Ryan Pressly - 28 - $0.5
CP Glen Perkins - 34 - $6.5

 

Starting Lineup
C Jason Castro - 29 - $8.33
1B Joe Mauer - 33 - $23.0
2B Jorge Polanco - 23 - $0.5
3B Miguel Sano - 23 - $0.5
SS Eduardo Escobar - 28 - $3.5
LF Carlos Gomez - 31 - $12.0
CF Byron Buxton - 23 - $0.5
RF Max Kepler - 24 - $0.5
DH Byung Ho Park - 30 - $2.75

 

Bench
C John Ryan Murphy - 25 - $0.5
SS Engelb Vielma - 22 - $0.5
OF Robbie Grossman - 27 - $0.5
OF Eddie Rosario - 25 - $0.5

 

Additional Salaries
SP Ricky Nolasco - $4.0
SP Ervin Santana - $5.0

Total Salary - $95.78

 

Top Callup Options
1. 1B/DH Kennys Vargas (Extra Option Year Approved)
Easy. If Park struggles, Vargas will be up in a flash.

2. RP Nick Burdi
All depends on how he can rebound from an injury plagued 2016. If he is healthy, he will be up by June, potentially April.

3. SP Adalberto Mejia
Outside chance of breaking camp as the Twins fifth starter, depending on who is still around come March. I would expect some issues with the Twins rotation by May, making Mejia the next man up in this scenario.

4. RP Ryan O’Rourke
With Rogers being the only lefty out of the Twins bullpen besides Glen Perkins, I would expect we see O’Rourke up at some point during the season. Not necessarily thrilled about that, and lets hope that Levine and Falvey can add a lefty to the bullpen.

5. RP Pat Light
Got a cup of coffee in 2016. It wasn’t great but is too small of a sample to rule him out. Has the stuff to be a solid reliever.

6. RP Mason Melotakis
Will eventually be a much better lefty option than O’Rourke. You’d like to see him build on last years success at Triple A for a couple of months before coming up to the Twins. Especially since he missed all of 2015.

7. C Mitch Garver
The second something goes wrong with the combination of John Ryan Murphy & Jason Castro (in this scenario), Garver will be up in the Twin Cities.

8. RP Jake Reed
Will likely start in Triple A but will be given an opportunity at some point.

9. RP Trevor Hildenberger
Lights out for Chattanooga last season. Him and Reed are interchangeable in who gets the first shot to be in the Twins bullpen.

10. OF Daniel Palka
Chances are that the Twins will need more than 5 outfielders to get through 2017. Palka has earned the right to be the 6th outfielder in the system. Excellent Return for Hermann.

 

September Callups
Stephen Gonsalves, Zach Granite, Willie Calhoun, Stuart Turner

Top 15 Organizational Prospects
Player    Pos. Rank Level ETA
1. Jose De Leon  SP 32 MLB 2016
2. Tyler Jay  SP 35 AA 2018
3. Nick Gordon  SS 47 AA 2018
4. Mitch Keller  SP 72 A+ 2019
5. Stephen Gonsalves SP 85 AAA 2017
6. Willie Calhoun 2B 87 AAA 2017
7. Alex Kirilloff  OF 92 A 2020
8. Kohl Stewart  SP NR AA 2018
9. Fernando Romero SP NR A+ 2018
10. JT Chargois  RP NR MLB 2016
11. Ben Rortvedt  C NR A 2020
12. Adalberto Mejia SP NR AAA 2016
13. Nick Burdi  RP NR AAA 2017
14. Lewis Thorpe  SP NR A 2019
15. Wander Javier  SS NR A 2020

[Vanimal46]

Well thought out, Baseball Bat. I'm with you on a lot of these moves. I would hope E Santana would attract a better return than Keller, especially if they eat some of the contract money too.

 

If Gomez could be had on a 1 year prove it deal, I'm pulling the trigger on that. If he wants 3+ years, it's best to look elsewhere.

 

Overall good plan!

[Baseball Bat]

 

Well thought out, Baseball Bat. I'm with you on a lot of these moves. I would hope E Santana would attract a better return than Keller, especially if they eat some of the contract money too.

If Gomez could be had on a 1 year prove it deal, I'm pulling the trigger on that. If he wants 3+ years, it's best to look elsewhere.

Overall good plan!

Thanks - I was a bit conservative on the Santana trade because I am not sure how others value their own prospects and Santana at $13.5 million annually over the next two seasons. I know that Keller is consistently rated as a top 50 to 100 prospect, but if we could net something better than him, that would be awesome. Seems like a lot of unknown when projecting trades that involve prospects until significant steam develops.

[HitInAPinch]

Nice overall plan.

 

Perkins:  from what I've read, Perkins may not be ready to play next year.  As of 11/11, he is throwing the ball 75 ft. with 50% effort.  "Perkins will have to earn his closer job back and the odds that he'll regain his pre-op effectiveness are pretty slim."   Storen makes for a good backup plan.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/mlb/4178/glen-perkins

 

Gomez:  sign him on a 1 year contract and push Rosario to the bench?  I just can't see that.  The $12M for a 1 year rental that keeps Rosario on the bench seems like a bad idea to me.  He needs some more development time,  IMHO.

[olivia11]

I really like this blueprint and I agree with just about everything except 1) penciling in Perkins as the CP from day one.  I think it should be Storen here while we let Perkins work his way back.  2) the Santana(s) trade.

 

Keller is a good prospect to target but I would also try to get one of 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (#6 in org; #6 in top 10 mlb 3b prospects) or 3B Will Craig (#8 in org) to help with the Twins' lack of solid prospects at 3B. (Sano probably won't be able to play there too many years so it's smart to build it up).

 

I would also ask for one of RHP Travis Macgregor (#25 in org) or RHP Trevor Williams (#27 in org). Williams will start AAA/MLB but Macgregor has a higher ceiling.

 

So, how about Ervin Santana & Danny Santana for Keller, Hayes, and Macgregor?

 

 

Also: I really like your focus on building back up the prospect list.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Nice overall plan.

 

Perkins: from what I've read, Perkins may not be ready to play next year. As of 11/11, he is throwing the ball 75 ft. with 50% effort. "Perkins will have to earn his closer job back and the odds that he'll regain his pre-op effectiveness are pretty slim." Storen makes for a good backup plan.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/mlb/4178/glen-perkins

 

Gomez: sign him on a 1 year contract and push Rosario to the bench? I just can't see that. The $12M for a 1 year rental that keeps Rosario on the bench seems like a bad idea to me. He needs some more development time, IMHO.

Rosario's ceiling is 4th OF'er.

That OBP doesn't play everyday as a corner outfielder.

The only reason he's a starter now is because we don't have better options and are a 100 loss team.

[markos]

I think the Keller for Santana trade is very fair. The only change is that if you are paying some salary, I think you could fetch a little more. I think Keller + mid-20s 5th starter would make sense. 

[Baseball Bat]

Thanks for all your input. What do you guys think about my proposed Dozier Trade? Could we get more? Asking for too much? Or fair?

[Jacksson]

No way Castro comes to the Twins.  That means a catcher is needed.  Dodgers have both Barnes and Smith at AAA blocked by their starter.  As for Santana, why not bundle him with Dozier to the Dodgers?  The Dodgers also have multi-year bucks invested in 3 players not even on the 40 man roster; by taking one of them on, Twins gain a player and eliminate subsidizing the Santana contract.  What about: Dozier, E. Santana, Pressley, Tonkin, Turner & D. Santana for C Austin Barnes, C Will Smith, P Brock Stewart  P DeLeon and one of (SP Yaisel Sierra, SS Erisbel Arrebarrena or OF Dian Toscano). .

[KirbyDome89]

Couldn't agree more about Hector Santiago and i've posted in other threads scratching my head as to why the trade was made if they were going to turn around and tender him a contract. I'm fine with the FA signing. Dozier to LA would be great. I'm not sure whether its best to trade Ervin now or wait until the deadline, the Twins are taking a gamble holding onto him but the reward could be so much greater. I'm not sure De Leon would slot right into the lineup so Mejia might have to be the 5th starter. The only move I certainly would do differently would be dropping Grossman and adding Vargas as a platoon 1B/DH option. Having Park, Mauer, and Vargas on the 25 man might be a bit much but Grossman is a 5th OF who can't really play any OF defense so of the two scenarios I would rather have the 3 1B/DH players on the roster, at least until one proves they don't belong, or a player like Palka pushes for playing time, or the bullpen has their annual midseason implosion and the Twins have to roll with 13 pitchers. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Thanks for all your input. What do you guys think about my proposed Dozier Trade? Could we get more? Asking for too much? Or fair?

It's a little hard for me to say, i.e.  I never heard the names Jose De Leon or Willie Calhoun before   

 

So, I go with my gut.  And the gut-gut tells me the Twins could use more prospects in the MiLB and catching help. 

 

Austin Barnes is a name that jumps out at me.  A scouting report says:  Good hitter, gifted receiver with average arm, a bit underrated as a defender because he has spent a lot of time elsewhere on the diamond.  Considering there are 2 other catchers ahead of him, why not?

 

Probably 3 players would be the max LA would consider for Dozier, only. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Rosario's ceiling is 4th OF'er.
That OBP doesn't play everyday as a corner outfielder.
The only reason he's a starter now is because we don't have better options and are a 100 loss team.

That was exactly my point.  How would 1 year of $12M Gomez buying you? 

I think Rosario is more than just a #4 OF'er.  He just needs some more time.  But this year, he needs his head in the game 100%.

[Mike Sixel]

Great general plan.

 

I see no chance Hughes or Perkins contributes much this year, but I think I move Hughes to the bullpen, and make him Andrew Miller....for that reason alone, I keep Santiago around.

 

Not sure on the ESan trade, don't know much about the guy you are getting back.

 

I agree with some above, a AAA 3B in case Sano can't play is a good idea.

[Mr. Brooks]

That was exactly my point. How would 1 year of $12M Gomez buying you?

I think Rosario is more than just a #4 OF'er. He just needs some more time. But this year, he needs his head in the game 100%.

Because Gomez has all-star ceiling. We have nothing to lose by being the team to roll the dice with him. If he starts the year hot you flip him for a B prospect plus a lotto ticket or two.

I guess I don't see how more time swinging at every pitch within 2 feet of the strike zone is going to change who Rosario is.

He's an asset as a 4th outfielder, we should be happy to see him in that role.