Article: Escobar Back To His Old Ways, Back To The Bench

[Tom Froemming]

Heading into this season, it appeared Eduardo Escobar had cemented himself as the Twins' starting shortstop. He'd put together two-straight above average offensive seasons and ended his 2015 season with a big exclamation point. With a poor showing thus far in 2016, however, Escobar's place on the team is now very much in question.Escobar performed admirably in 2014, taking over for Pedro Florimon and fending off rookie Danny Santana for playing time. He hit .275/.315/.406 and ranked 10th in the AL with 35 doubles. Still, he seemed like more of a bandaid at the position than an attractive long-term option.

 

Santana re-entered the picture to start 2015, but once he faltered there was steady Eduardo to step in. At the time, it was disappointing to see the talented young Santana fail to take advantage of an opportunity and Escobar again just seemed to be a stop gap. The team was in contention and he was the best option.

 

His performance over the last two months of the season changed that perception. Escobar hit .287 with eight homers, 27 RBI and 31 runs over his final 56 games played. Extrapolated over a 162 game period, that equates to 23 home runs, 78 RBI and 90 runs. He went from stop gap to the solution. Unfortunately, that performance appears to have been a mirage.

 

A big element to Escobar's game that fueled his hot finish to 2015 was an improved approach at the plate. He has been unable to carry that over to 2016.

 

 

2014: 5.2 BB%, .315 OBP

First half 2015: 3.7 BB%, .285 OBP

Second half 2015: 8.7 BB%, .330 OBP

2016: 3.4 BB%, .283 OBP

That second half spike from last season appears to simply be a huge outlier at this point. Escobar has an ugly triple slash of .259/.283/.380 this season and to top it off advanced defensive metrics suggest his glove work has declined, as well.

 

The trade of Eduardo Nunez appeared to have opened the door back up for Escobar to take over at short, but instead Jorge Polanco has started six of the past nine games. The organization has always seemed hesitant to commit to Escobar, but now his performance has justified that stance.

 

With an additional two seasons of team control which should come at modest prices, Escobar entered the year in a perfect position to slap a long-term stranglehold on the starting shortstop gig. No one could've seen the emergence of Nunez coming, but Escobar has also played himself out of the picture.

 

With his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions, he's got an attractive skill set for a utility player, but with how far his performance has fallen off it's anyone's guess what the new front office regime will ultimately decide to do with Escobar.

 

It's not too late to rule out another late season surge from Escobar, but at this point it certainly appears the franchises' instability at shortstop will continue. Over the past ten seasons the Twins have had nine different Opening Day shortstops.

 

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[Tom Froemming]

Quick update: Polanco is starting at short again tonight, so that's eight of the past 11 games.

[Vanimal46]

It certainly feels like Escobar's best role would be utility/part-time going forward. SS should be explored this off-season for an upgrade, even if it's short term for the 2017 season only. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

It certainly feels like Escobar's best role would be utility/part-time going forward. SS should be explored this off-season for an upgrade, even if it's short term for the 2017 season only. 

Jeremy did a nice write up on the arbitration eligible guys and estimated Escobar to earn between $3-4 million. That's not crippling by any means, but if the Pohlads are motivated to cut payroll they may not be inclined to commit that to a utility guy/insurance policy.

 

If I remember correctly, Hughes, Perkins and Dozier are all getting salary increases next season. Throw in the other arb raises and things may get tight, even with Suzuki coming off the books and the savings from the Ricky Nolasco trade. Of course, there's the possibility the payroll increases next season, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

[Kwak]

Ryan gone = Escobar to  bench,

[HitInAPinch]

Escobar was on the DL because of a left groin strain in early-mid May.  Then a left hamstring injury in early July.  In that time, there was Nunez getting those consistent at bats and for almost 4 full months was hitting over .300.  No consistent AB's for Escobar.

 

And now there's Polanco, whom the Twins really need to see if he is a shortstop of the future.  Because it seems that the other infield spots are taken.

[Darius]

I have to disagree with a lot of what you are saying, for a couple reasons.

 

1) it seems like Molitor really wants to get him out of the lineup. Maybe it's justified, that's not what I'm saying, but it's tough to get something going offensively with irregular at bats, and te pressure of know one or two bad games and you're done.

 

2). I think he's injured, so his performance last year isn't necessarily an outlier. Gleeman and Bonnes covered this recently.

 

I think he can be a very good player, and is just having a tough go this year. We just saw Dozier get a chance to play through a year of being one of the worst players in the American League. No lesson learned about panicking?

 

Also, Polanco is NOT the shortstop of the future. They need to find another spot for him. Polanco is totally inept at SS. Whatever the FO and Molly have been doing with the defense lately is terrible. People complain endlessly about the pitching being awful, but it wouldn't look quite so bad if they weren't fielding terrible defenders at every position on the field (other than 1B and RF....the least important positions defensively).

Edited August 18, 2016 by Darius

[jorgenswest]

I don't think looking at slash stats in partial seasons would point to a trend in any meaningful way.

 

Looking at a three year stretch, it seems reasonable to project an OBP around .300 and SLG around .400. That would make him a pretty useful utility player that could fill in for longer stretches when an injury occurs. Giving Polanco a long look at SS with the security of Escobar on the roster would be a reasonable direction for next year.

[Thrylos]

.352/.361/.451 :  Jorge Polanco's slash line since he was recalled.

.205/.244/.308 : Eduardo Escobar's slash line in the same time.

 

Nobody in their right mind will start Escobar over Polanco.

 

No.bo.dy.

(well, Molitor and Gardenhire both did in the past, but that's a different thread.)

Edited August 19, 2016 by Thrylos

[Tom Froemming]

 

I have to disagree with a lot of what you are saying, for a couple reasons.

1) it seems like Molitor really wants to get him out of the lineup. Maybe it's justified, that's not what I'm saying, but it's tough to get something going offensively with irregular at bats, and te pressure of know one or two bad games and you're done.

2). I think he's injured, so his performance last year isn't necessarily an outlier. Gleeman and Bonnes covered this recently.

I think he can be a very good player, and is just having a tough go this year. We just saw Dozier get a chance to play through a year of being one of the worst players in the American League. No lesson learned about panicking?

Also, Polanco is NOT the shortstop of the future. They need to find another spot for him. Polanco is totally inept at SS. Whatever the FO and Molly have been doing with the defense lately is terrible. People complain endlessly about the pitching being awful, but it wouldn't look quite so bad if they weren't fielding terrible defenders at every position on the field (other than 1B and RF....the least important positions defensively).

Tough to argue against any of these points, so I won't And for the record, Eduardo is one of my faves. Gotta root for a guy who continually defies the odds and really seems to enjoy himself at the ballpark.

 

But you can't deny that after appearing to turn the corner in terms of his approach at the plate, Escobar has been a big disappointment. Since the team burned through Polanco's option years they have a lot of incentive to try and find him a spot. It's just a terrible time for Eduardo to be performing poorly.

[Badsmerf]

Escobar is a utility player. No harm in that. Guys like him have long careers.

[Shaitan]

Escobar is a borderline starter/utility player. Which is the best kind because he'll give a manager options and push other players to compete more.

 

When the inevitable injury occurs you don't have to say "oh, Denny Hocking is starting for the next 15 days."

 

Play him when he's hot, sit him when he's not. 

[Jordan1212]

He is a good bench player he will still be here next year. As Polanco will play 2nd base next season. I am going to call it now dozier is getting traded for some arms a smart gm trades him after he has his career year in home runs. We need to have our starter go more than 4 innings and not have a 5+ Era.

[Tom Froemming]

 

He is a good bench player he will still be here next year. As Polanco will play 2nd base next season. I am going to call it now dozier is getting traded for some arms a smart gm trades him after he has his career year in home runs. We need to have our starter go more than 4 innings and not have a 5+ Era.

 

This seems to be the most likely way Escobar makes it back off the bench at this point. 

[ND-Fan]

The Twins are always looking for the flashy glove at ss instead of just finding a shortstop that can make the routine plays and has little pop in his bat. They had in Hardy but he was to slow, not enough range etc. and since we gone through another couple of SS. I think Escobar could be good average short stop but twins are still looking for hall fame short stop. Polanco is second baseman or 3 baseman and the Twins are just wasting at bats on Plouffe they are not going to trade him for much and sure not going to sign him next year for 10 million. They already have log jam at infield Escobar, Polanco, Sano, and Santanna all much cheaper options much longer control than Plouffe. In my opinion they are just wasting at bats and taking away development of younger players. The Twins just have hard time turning page on their number 1 draft picks when they don't pan out. I also believe the Twins will need to trade Dozier for pitching soon if they are going to make run by 2018. He could bring several top quality pitching prospects to Twins that would be ready to pitch at big league level. They have Polanco that could be above average at second and they Gordon kid coming up fast in minors also will need a position.