Twins trade rumors

[gunnarthor]

 

Shark had a 2.99 ERA that year and a 3.14 ERA for Oakland.

 

Oakland was also up 4 runs with 6 outs to play to advance past KC in the WC round, and they certainly would have had a punchers chance the rest of the way IMO.

Sometimes bad things happen in playoff series (especially a one game playoff)

 

At least Oakland went for it.

 

Sure they gave up a hefty amount for them, but that's what happens sometime.

Huh.  Shark was worth 1.8 WAR for Oakland and Hammel was worth 0.  They gave up a top prospect, another top 100 type and a backend starter.  But they went for it.  Funny.  When the Twins traded Ramos, a top 100 prospect, they got a 1.0 WAR season out of Capps, went for it and failed.  Yet, you seem to bring that trade up almost as often as David Ortiz.  Strange.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Huh.  Shark was worth 1.8 WAR for Oakland and Hammel was worth 0.  They gave up a top prospect, another top 100 type and a backend starter.  But they went for it.  Funny.  When the Twins traded Ramos, a top 100 prospect, they got a 1.0 WAR season out of Capps, went for it and failed.  Yet, you seem to bring that trade up almost as often as David Ortiz.  Strange.

 

As above....you left off the part where they then flipped one of those guys for other players that are playing for them.....

 

Also, are you really comparing trading for 1 RP to trading for 2 starting pitchers as degrees of going for it?

[gunnarthor]

 

Well that's settled...

 

Also he sits 95, that's not exactly "low 90's" FYI

I guess I will disagree that stat lines in AA mean very little, especially when said prospect is only 22 years old and is showing a pretty damn good K/BB rate.

All I know is I would much rather have Hu as our plan B in the minors than Pat Dean....

Lastly, nobody is saying Hu is some front of the rotation type guy, however at this stage he looks like he could be a real nice #4 type. IMO the Twins could use a couple guys like that in the high minors, it would prevent them from overpaying for back end rotation guys on the FA market (Nolasco, Pelfrey X2 etc)

Stats certainly have some meaning but you have to put it in context with what you know of the player.  Red Sox drafted Andrew Benintendi last year and he is already in AA but that doesn't actually tell us much b/c Benintendi was already filled out so most scouts thought he'd do very well in A ball.  (And, of course, he is a great prospect on top of that).  So with him, you probably want to see how he's doing against advanced pitchers first.  

 

As for Hu, he wouldn't be our plan B.  The Twins have both Stewart and Gonslaves at AA and they are both younger.  

[DaveW]

 

Huh.  Shark was worth 1.8 WAR for Oakland and Hammel was worth 0.  They gave up a top prospect, another top 100 type and a backend starter.  But they went for it.  Funny.  When the Twins traded Ramos, a top 100 prospect, they got a 1.0 WAR season out of Capps, went for it and failed.  Yet, you seem to bring that trade up almost as often as David Ortiz.  Strange.

Yes, Shark was worth 1.8 WAR in 30% of a season for the A's, that nets out to a pretty good return during that time and had they not blown a 4 run lead in the 8th inning of the wild card game, they would have had a rotation good enough to contend in the ALDS.

Hammel (who was a pending FA) was clearly a throw in in that trade, stop acting like he was the reason why the A's decided to give up Russel, Shark was the clear centerpiece.

 

And like I mentioned above, the A's were able to turn around Shark and trade him for 3 guys who gave the A's a 5.5 combined WAR last year (Bassit, Semien, and Phegley) Semien is giving them 3 WAR this year and looks to be one of the better power hitting MI in baseball.

 

So yeah, maybe if the Twins would have turned around the following season and traded Capps for a few good players then your comparison would make sense. Of course the Twins didn't trade Capps, they resigned him and kept him around until he became a sub replacement level player!

[DaveW]

 

 

As for Hu, he wouldn't be our plan B.  The Twins have both Stewart and Gonslaves at AA and they are both younger.  

Pretty sure if the Twins were actually contending this season and needed a pitcher brought up, Hu would be brought up much quicker this season then either Stewart or Gonslaves. If either of those guys were close to ready, then why on earth did we get the Pat Dean experience for several games?

[gunnarthor]

 

As above....you left off the part where they then flipped one of those guys for other players that are playing for them.....

 

Also, are you really comparing trading for 1 RP to trading for 2 starting pitchers as degrees of going for it?

Depends on what your team needs.  Apparently if not signing RP in the offseason shows you're not going for it, the opposite must be true as well so trading for one must mean you're going for it.

 

And, sure, there is value in trading for guys with more than a year left and/or flipping them or whatnot but I'm pretty sure that doesn't fix the problem of giving up the Russell package.

[gunnarthor]

 

Pretty sure if the Twins were actually contending this season and needed a pitcher brought up, Hu would be brought up much quicker this season then either Stewart or Gonslaves. If either of those guys were close to ready, then why on earth did we get the Pat Dean experience for several games?

I assume Hu, who is on the same level as Gonsalves and Stewart, wouldn't have been brought up either.  Frankly, if the Twins were contending this season it would have been because Berrios was brought up and Duffy and Gibson and Santana were pitching well, as well.  If we're hoping for Hu (or Gonsalves or Stewart) to pitch this season, we're in trouble.  None of them are making the majors this season.  (And the Rays, with their pitching disaster, don't seem ready to call him up, either).  

[DaveW]

 

 but I'm pretty sure that doesn't fix the problem of giving up the Russell package.

So far it literally has been a wash at worst for the A's.

If Semien and Russell put up more or less the same WAR moving forward how is it such a problem?

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, Shark was worth 1.8 WAR in 30% of a season for the A's, that nets out to a pretty good return during that time and had they not blown a 4 run lead in the 8th inning of the wild card game, they would have had a rotation good enough to contend in the ALDS.

Hammel (who was a pending FA) was clearly a throw in in that trade, stop acting like he was the reason why the A's decided to give up Russel, Shark was the clear centerpiece.

 

And like I mentioned above, the A's were able to turn around Shark and trade him for 3 guys who gave the A's a 5.5 combined WAR last year (Bassit, Semien, and Phegley) Semien is giving them 3 WAR this year and looks to be one of the better power hitting MI in baseball.

 

So yeah, maybe if the Twins would have turned around the following season and traded Capps for a few good players then your comparison would make sense. Of course the Twins didn't trade Capps, they resigned him and kept him around until he became a sub replacement level player!

Fine, 11 starts from Shark wasn't worth losing six years of Russell.  I don't see how you can support that trade and then complain about the Twins losing far lesser players like Hu and Ramos.  Either don't trade prospects because the years of control or far too valuable or accept that you're willing to trade a prospect and risk the chance that the prospect will exceed your expectations for him.  

[jimmer]

Hu's a starter right?  I didn't know the Rays had a starting pitcher disaster on their hands.  For the AL, their rotation is 1st in K/9, 6th in WAR, 3rd in FIP, 7th in ERA.  Doesn't seem like too much of a disaster to me.  I wish our rotation was such a disaster.

[old nurse]

 

I hate when people say this- At this point it has become almost a meme. Mention the stats of a minor leaguer that "old school prospect folks" don't think very highly of and that line is thrown out reflexively. 

 

The human mind will see things that aren't there and make connections between things that aren't correlated. Without data, the mind's interpretation of reality is unreliable at best. 

 

The great thing about baseball is that there is very rarely an area in the known universe where we find a closed system with a limited, known and measureable set of outcomes from discrete (or semi-discrete) events, like in baseball. A stat line can actually tell us a heck of a lot. There are certain things players do in the minors that lead to success at the major league level that will show up in their minor league stat line. For example, pitchers that have higher K% and lowe BB% in the minors have a higher probability of not only reaching the majors, but also success in the majors. Hu has a much higher probability of major league success with his 22% K% and 7% BB% in AA and 22% and 6% in A+ than does Stewart with his 12% and 9% rates in AA and 15% and 8% in A+, regardless of how good Stewart looks doing it. 

From reports with what Stewart is capable of throwing his ceiling is higher than Hu's.  Kevin Slowey had similar numbers to Hu's when he was at AAA. How did that work out over time? Also those are Stewart's first 5 games. in AA  Believe it or not it might be learning going on and one bad game really skews numbers.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I was being sarcastic.  No one is trading for Hughes, and Milwaukee wouldn't spend half a second considering the deal laid out above for Lucroy

No, REALLY?   

 

Sarcasm:  it's a difficult concept.......

[DaveW]

 

Fine, 11 starts from Shark wasn't worth losing six years of Russell.  I don't see how you can support that trade and then complain about the Twins losing far lesser players like Hu and Ramos.  Either don't trade prospects because the years of control or far too valuable or accept that you're willing to trade a prospect and risk the chance that the prospect will exceed your expectations for him.  

The A's could have had 41 starts from Shark.

Instead they got 11 starts, + Semien+Phegley+Bassit, and for the 5th time, Semien has performed just as well overall as Russell has thus far!

 

Thus, it wasn't 11 starts for Russell!

 

The Hu and Ramos trades were both for "proven" mediocre closers, while dealing from a position of weakness both times in the org. Additionally, no other real moves were made to actually put the team even close to over the top.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Hu's a starter right?  I didn't know the Rays had a starting pitcher disaster on their hands.  For the AL, their rotation is 1st in K/9, 6th in WAR, 3rd in FIP, 7th in ERA.  Doesn't seem like too much of a disaster to me.  I wish our rotation was such a disaster.

That's surprising.  A quick look at b-r shows Archer w/ 85 ERA+ and -.1 WAR, Smyly w/76 and 0, Moore at 81 and 0.  Team with 92 ERA+ and 3.7 WAR.  (Ours is 85 and 2.7)

 

Obviously, you don't give up on those three, but yeah, that's not good.  I mean, we're worse because of course we are but seems like a bit of a disaster to me.

[old nurse]

 

Hu's a starter right?  I didn't know the Rays had a starting pitcher disaster on their hands.  For the AL, their rotation is 1st in K/9, 6th in WAR, 3rd in FIP, 7th in ERA.  Doesn't seem like too much of a disaster to me.  I wish our rotation was such a disaster.

When you expect to have a staff that  would be near the top of the league rather than the middle it would be a disaster. Much like when you have a staff that you expect to be in the middle of the pack and it ends up in the bottom.

[nicksaviking]

******Moderator Note************

 

The discussion is somewhat relevant to the topic at hand, but some of the posts are bordering on personal. Let's keep it objective.

[gunnarthor]

 

The A's could have had 41 starts from Shark.

Instead they got 11 starts, + Semien+Phegley+Bassit, and for the 5th time, Semien has performed just as well overall as Russell has thus far!

 

Thus, it wasn't 11 starts for Russell!

 

The Hu and Ramos trades were both for "proven" mediocre closers, while dealing from a position of weakness both times in the org. Additionally, no other real moves were made to actually put the team even close to over the top.

But first you were supporting the trade b/c they were going for it.  The Twins got equal WAR from Capps in 2010-2011 (the years of control left on the trade) as they gave up in Ramos (who obviously has more years of control and had more WAR from 2012-present). So, if we're shifting from 'go for it' to only 'go for it' if the trade equalizes over time, then you don't trade your prospects.

 

Also, trading your 12th best prospect for a relief pitcher doesn't really signify a position of weakness.  It was a pretty normal baseball trade.  Look at the other RP trades - the Jepsen trade doesn't look out of line.  

[DaveW]

 

That's surprising.  A quick look at b-r shows Archer w/ 85 ERA+ and -.1 WAR, Smyly w/76 and 0, Moore at 81 and 0.  Team with 92 ERA+ and 3.7 WAR.  (Ours is 85 and 2.7)

 

Obviously, you don't give up on those three, but yeah, that's not good.  I mean, we're worse because of course we are but seems like a bit of a disaster to me.

Archer had a 3.26 ERA the last 3 years and leads the league in strike outs this year. His HR/9 has doubled, once that normalizes he will be back to his old self. Additionally he is getting very unlucky in the BABIP department this year.

Smyly also has been very unlucky with the BABIP God's this year (.25 higher than last year) 1.9 HR/9

Still a great k/bb rate. He will be fine.

Their patience will be running low with Moore soon.

[jimmer]

 

That's surprising.  A quick look at b-r shows Archer w/ 85 ERA+ and -.1 WAR, Smyly w/76 and 0, Moore at 81 and 0.  Team with 92 ERA+ and 3.7 WAR.  (Ours is 85 and 2.7)

 

Obviously, you don't give up on those three, but yeah, that's not good.  I mean, we're worse because of course we are but seems like a bit of a disaster to me.

TBs AL rotation rankings I showed look even better when you consider 3 of the 4 division rivals rank 1, 2 and 4 in runs scored for the AL.

[old nurse]

 

 

The A's could have had 41 starts from Shark.

Instead they got 11 starts, + Semien+Phegley+Bassit, and for the 5th time, Semien has performed just as well overall as Russell has thus far!

 

Thus, it wasn't 11 starts for Russell!

 

The Hu and Ramos trades were both for "proven" mediocre closers, while dealing from a position of weakness both times in the org. Additionally, no other real moves were made to actually put the team even close to over the top.

Jepsen was never an exclusive closer until Perkins was hurt again.

[jimmer]

 

When you expect to have a staff that  would be near the top of the league rather than the middle it would be a disaster. Much like when you have a staff that you expect to be in the middle of the pack and it ends up in the bottom.

They are first in Ks per 9 and 3rd in FIP.  In no way does that come up as a disaster, unless disaster means something else. I don't know who thought they'd be top of the league but they shouldn't have thought that.  That kind of prediction would be the disaster.  Being not quite as good as you thought you'd be while still being pretty darn good isn't a disaster.  And considering that Boston, Baltimore and Blue Jays rank 1st, 2nd and 4th in the AL in runs scored, they should be very happy with their rotation's performance so far.

[old nurse]

 

 

Ok, since Kevin Slowey didn't work out that means everyone else who has "similar" numbers in the minors is doomed to the same fate? FWIW Hu throws quite a bit faster than Slowey ever did as well, but don't let that get in the way of your blanket statement/comparison.

 

Only 1st round picks get the benefit of the doubt now or a chance to succeed?

No, the point was minor league numbers do not mean as much as some would have them be. A Hu Slowey comparison is a bit off. Less further off than a  Stewart  and Hu comparison. They are all different pitchers.   I don't think Hu has been clocked at 97 with his fastball.   Hu has the gimmick palmball.  I digress, but the last pitcher I remember with a palmball was Bluegill. Bluegill Hughes had some success with it until he did not. Hu projects to be a back of the rotation pitcher at best. To give up that for a player who has had a couple years of success in the mlb is not an evil trade.

[DaveW]

 

No, the point was minor league numbers do not mean as much as some would have them be. A Hu Slowey comparison is a bit off. Less further off than a  Stewart  and Hu comparison. They are all different pitchers.   I don't think Hu has been clocked at 97 with his fastball.   Hu has the gimmick palmball.  I digress, but the last pitcher I remember with a palmball was Bluegill. Bluegill Hughes had some success with it until he did not. Hu projects to be a back of the rotation pitcher at best. To give up that for a player who has had a couple years of success in the mlb is not an evil trade.

Hu sits at 95.

 

He was traded for a completely average RP (Jepsen) at the time.

It was dumb and unnecessary, and like clock work it has failed miserably.

[old nurse]

 

 

They are first in Ks per 9 and 3rd in FIP.  In no way does that come up as a disaster, unless disaster means something else. I don't know who thought they'd be top of the league but they shouldn't have thought that.  That kind of prediction would be the disaster.  Being not quite as good as you thought you'd be while still being pretty darn good isn't a disaster.  And considering that Boston, Baltimore and Blue Jays rank 1st, 2nd and 4th in the AL in runs scored, they should be very happy with their rotation's performance so far.

The are middle of the pack when it comes to lob%.  for fip Nolasco is 37 out of 97 pitchers who have pitched qualified innings, 43 out of 135 starters who have pitched 50 innings. FIP has limitations.  WPA has the Rays as  12th in the league. That is a disaster

[gunnarthor]

 

Hu sits at 95.

 

He was traded for a completely average RP (Jepsen) at the time.

It was dumb and unnecessary, and like clock work it has failed miserably.

He doesn't sit 95.  He may have hit 95 once but that's not the same as sitting there.  

From mlb.com -  His fastball will be plus at times, but typically sits in the low 90s with good life.

from fangraphs - His arsenal consists of a low-90s fastball with decent movement

he didn't make BA top 10 for the Rays, so I don't know how they view his fastball.

[old nurse]

 

 

Hu sits at 95.

 

He was traded for a completely average RP (Jepsen) at the time.

It was dumb and unnecessary, and like clock work it has failed miserably.

Chih-Wei Hu, RHP: Chih-Wei Hu was signed by the Twins as a free agent from Taiwan in 2012 for $220,000. He has pitched very well at the lower levels of the Minnesota farm system, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 48/13 K/BB in 55 innings for Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014, followed by a 2.44 ERA and a 73/19 K/BB in 85 innings this year for High-A Fort Myers.

Hu is a 21-year-old right-hander listed at 6-1, 210 pounds. Despite his impressive statistical performance his stock with scouts is not extremely high. He lacks the physical projection that teams want in a pitcher his age and is unlikely to gain much additional velocity. That said, he does throw 90-92 MPH (occasionally a bit higher) and the fastball plays up due to the contrast with his palmball.

Reports on the quality of this palmball vary: some observers say it is a very good, even excellent pitch, while others rate it as fringy at best. It has worked just fine against A-ball hitters. We need to see what happens at higher levels, but Hu has good command and a chance to be a workhorse fourth starter type, or perhaps a reliever.

 

 

It is not like they traded a potential top or middle of the rotation pitcher. 

[DaveW]

They still grossly overpaid for 1.5 seasons of a mediocre RP.

[ashbury]

******Moderator Note************

 

The discussion is somewhat relevant to the topic at hand, but some of the posts are bordering on personal. Let's keep it objective.

Nick's message apparently was ignored, so I removed the last three posts, which were more about sniping at one another than about baseball. Please read and heed the above.

[jimmer]

'WPA is tricky because there’s an innate desire to use it as a measure of “which player has delivered when it matters most!” In reality, it’s far more complicated than that because it’s an additive measure. To accrue big WPA totals, you need to be presented with many opportunities to come through with the game on the line. A player with a 5.0 WPA for the year hasn’t necessarily been more “clutch” than one with a 2.0 WPA, they may simply have had many chances with the bases loaded late in close games. WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future   '  

 

Talk about a stat with limitations.

 

And as far as LOB% goes, without looking at other stats (BABIP and HR/FB), doesn't give us much info (kind of like RBI). But even still, Rays are average in that department (and most pitchers are average in LOB%) with an average ERA. If they had a low ERA and a low LOB percentage, they might have an issue. Might expect that ERA to go up when the LOB% went back up.

 

'Most pitchers have LOB%s around league average (which is approximately 70-72%, depending upon the season), and pitchers that deviate from that average tend to see their numbers regress towards average in the future. In other words, if you see a pitcher with a 60 LOB%, they are letting lots of runners score so their ERA will be high, but the odds are that they will strand more runners in the future and lower their ERA.

 

I don't really put too much into these particular stats for player analysis, mostly because the people who make it tell us not to when describing them..

 

Along with the rankings I gave earlier (K/9, FIP, ERA, WAR), their rotation has the 5th best BAA, 4th best OBP against, 4th best OPS against.   Being top 5 in all those (along with K/9, and FIP) while being 6th in WAR and 7th in ERA, in a division that boasts the 1st, 2nd and 4th highest scoring teams in the AL, is in no way a disaster.

 

By comparison, Twins are last in the AL in OPS against (23 point worse than the team that sits 14th), 14th in the AL in OBP against, last in the AL in BAA, last in ERA (by a lot), 11th in FIP, 14th in K/9, 12th in WAR. This in a division that boast no team in the top 5 in runs scored in the AL. That's a disaster.

[Kwak]

As I recall most posters sung ​At Last when the Jepsen trade went down. Comments like "who's Hu" were common. While I (and others) thought more than one RP was needed, there was certainly a belief of "things are looking up."