Article: Houston, We have a Problem

[Mike Sixel]

Terry Ryan has specifically stated that the offense isn't nearly good enough....I trust him on this one, frankly. That said, if one or two of Hicks/Arcia/Benson is legit next year, I think they are better than Revere, and maybe Span. But that still leaves no SS, no 2B, an inconsistent 1B, and a big question mark at 3B.

 

Frankly, I'd deal Span and Willingham, and just suck this year, with two of the above (or Bigley or whomever) in the lineup to start next year. This team is awful, really, really awful. Having them here this year doesn't help this year, and probably doesn't help next year. Time to move on.*

 

*unless you really believe they'll sign 2-3 legit starting pitchers (which no team has ever done in 1 year, I don't think), and 1-2 more hitters (and that Plouffe and Morneau will join Mauer as being big time again)......but hope is not a strategy

[Brock Beauchamp]

unless you really believe they'll sign 2-3 legit starting pitchers (which no team has ever done in 1 year, I don't think)

The Yankees have done it at least once. Other than that, I can't recall a team picking up two legit starters.

[TheLeviathan]

But I don't think they've been lucky, and I'd differntly weight how far above or below expectations some of the things on your list are.

It's not that I'm saying they are lucky completely, but people try to make this season out to be one apocalyptic twist after another.....and I'd actually argue just as many things have gone right as they've gone horribly wrong. So if you're projecting forward, you can't plan on things getting significantly better than they are now, which happens to be the bottom of the AL. This isn't the apocalypse of bad luck - this is just not a very good baseball team.

 

The only phase of this team that has been good has been the back-end of their bullpen, but the "soft under belly" as was aptly put this weak, was exposed badly by the Sox. This team needs bullpen, lineup, and rotation help. And a significant amount of each.

 

No reason to grasp at phantom 2013 straws is my position - rebuild around the future of your minor league system.

[DaveW]

Any club contending would find a way to get Mauer & Willingham's bats in the order pretty much every day. After that - - - not so much.

 

Span would probably be in the lineup for the majority of contenders.

 

 

Span would crack the lineup of any team in baseball. Most teams wouldn't mind Plouffes .855 OPS in the lineup as well, ditto with Doumit.

[Oxtung]

1)The Twins have made few more moves than the ones listed, namely signing 4 - 30+ year old free agent players this off-season, which the Astros did not do...

2)As far as this goes:

 

IMHO "contending in their division" should not cut it any more. The Indians are "contending" and they will finish below .500. One should ask which of the 2 teams will "win a world series next", which is the mark of excellence, not "contending in the division", which is the mark of mediocrity. But, unfortunately, a lot of Twins' fans have been happy with the mediocrity of the Gardy era, which appeared great after the contraction situation and the perpetual basement dwelling of the late 90s. But it is about time the bar is raised again. There is no contraction, there is no perpetual suckage, they got a brand new ballpark... Time to raise the bar for the Twins, because if nobody does, and people are satisfied with mediocrity, mediocrity will continue.

 

Ask yourselves this: How would you feel if they win 80 games in 2013 and finish 2nd in the division? Is this a successful season or just an improved but mediocre season? I think it is about time we are start to expect excellence from this team...

1) And how does this hurt the Twins or help the Astros? The Twins are going to have money to spend on FA's; even more so if they go down the path of a firesale that so many here advocate. Should the Pohlad's just pocket that extra cash? Should an extra $30-60 million go towards the draft or signing international players? Money is going to get spent on FA's whether or not the Twins have a core group of players that are competitive. Shouldn't the Twins be trying to improve the immediate product on the field so that the fans have something more exciting to watch than an outfield of Bigley, Mastroianni and Revere? Shouldn't they be trying to sign good players who they might be able to flip at the deadline for even more prospects? You complain about signing old players who won't be a part of the future. Here is a list of 2013 FA's who are 28 or younger and will be in their prime a few years from now:

 

BJ Upton

Zach Greinke

Melky Cabrera

Delmon Young

 

That's it. 4 guys. 3/4 of those guys are going to get BIG contracts and the 4th one is Delmon freaking Young. You just can't sign young guys who will be in their prime years from now to relatively small deals and the Twins can't afford another $100M contract on top of Mauer. No the Twins have the right idea in free agency. Get the value from the players you sign on short term deals up to 3 years. That way in 3 years when you're competitive you can decide where you need that money to be spent. At that point maybe you do go out and pick up a Zach Greinke equivalent who is in his prime where you're going to get good use out of all 4 or 5 years of it instead of 1 or 2.

 

2) This whole section means absolutely nothing. It means even less when applied to Twins baseball by a fan. Sure it's great as a sound bite but when you get right down to it it has no meaning.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The current state of the Twins isn't nearly as rosy as you make it seem.

 

Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem. People seem to forget that team has played .500 ball since May. Plouffe has replaced Valencia, Mauer looks more like the Mauer of old, and Morneau has improved on his April start as well. Dozier and Parmalee both are showing lots of promise and there's 3 guys in AA right now who all look like they could contribute sometime next year. I'm not saying they have a top 5 offense or anything, but I am saying that the offense is built to win games... It certainly isn't their pitching that's been consistenly coming through for them.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't think you have to go Houston with this team. I still think they have the resources to compete in 2013 if management/ownership have the smarts and nads to do it.

 

Im really not interested in starting a neverending five yr plan and being the new KC Royals.

[DPJ]

I still think they have the resources to compete in 2013 if management/ownership have the smarts and nads to do it.

 

Which we all know won't happen, so were right back to where we were.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem.

Actually this team is far from a contender. Mauer, Span, Morneau (as long as he stays healthy), Willingham/Doumit (offense only) are all MLB players. Diamond is the only consistent quality starter. Bullpen OK but not as good as 3-4 years ago. Revere, Dozier, Parmalee, Plouffe could all become MLB players but probably only 2 will. Benson, Hicks, etc. may replace Doumit/Willingham in 2014 as we build to a contender.

 

Thats it--do you trade a prospect like Hicks?? Do you trade Willingham/Span/Morneau now when value high?? If you do you must get a player (pitcher) who will help in 2014. Liriano wont get that kind of value--given Willingham's lack of defense and Mornaeu's history not sure they will get value either. I think Ryan knows this.

[JB_Iowa]

Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem. People seem to forget that team has played .500 ball since May.

I keep reading that phrase (mostly from SOVD) but here's the problem:

 

2011 (through the date given)

4/30: 9-17

5/31: 17-36 May record: 8-19

6/30: 34-45 June record: 17-9

7/25: 47-55 July record: 13-10

 

 

2012

4/30: 6-16

5/31: 18-32 May record: 12-16

6/30: 32-45 June record: 14-13

7/25: 40-58 July record: 8-13

 

I took the numbers from www.baseballreference.com so I hope they are right.

 

Do you see any similarities? Maybe the 2012 team is showing steady "improvement" but maybe the similarities just reflect the timing of interleague play, etc.

 

While I hope that the 2012 team won't have an historic collapse to match that of the 2011 team, there isn't a lot to indicate to me that it won't happen. Ironically, the 2012 team has been relatively fortunate on the injury front on position players -- there could still be some hits to come.

 

People shouldn't forget that this team has played .500 ball since May but they shouldn't ignore last year's results either.

 

I was in favor of a controlled burn in October 2010. Unfortunately the Twins gave us Nishioka for Hardy and 2 more years of Pavano. I'm not sure that they can right this thing without getting out the dynamite.

[twinsnorth49]

What people don't seem to realize is that many more things have gone right than they have gone wrong. Willingham is having a career year. Mauer is healthy and having an outstanding season. Morneau is back and semi-capable. Plouffe had a breakout. Revere is having a breakout. Doumit is healthy and hitting very well. Diamond, Burton, Perkins, and Burnett are pitching some great ball.

 

When you compare that to the wrongs - Baker hurt, Pavano hurt, Capps hurt, Blackburn garbage. (Maybe one or two others I'm forgetting) - this team is actually a bit lucky they aren't WORSE.

 

I'm encouraged by some of Ryan's interviews the last few Sundays. He appears to get that this team isn't as good as some think and they're way further off than a pitcher or two.

This x 2

[Oxtung]

Which we all know won't happen, so were right back to where we were.

You keep saying that but it is anything but clear. As far as I can remember the Twins have never been in the position they're in right now. They have a historically bad starting rotation. Only Blackburn has a contract committment for next season. They have $20-30 million to put back into the club. They have little guaranteed starting pitching help available in the Minors for the next several years. Yes, maybe Gibson and Wimmers can come back but neither at this point (or even in the offseason) are going to be a sure thing to build around. That leaves you with Diamond, who I think we can all agree is going to keep seeing his ERA move in the direction of 4, and Blackburn, as much as nobody wants to admit it he'll get a shot again next year. The Twins are going to have to go out and get pitching help. And before you say it, veteran free agents on a 1 year deal doesn't help because the starting pitching is a problem long term. They're going to have to sign multiple pitchers and atleast 1 of those is going to have to be 3+ years.

[CDog]

This x 2

Then my reply to that post x 2, too!!! Haha.

[CDog]

You keep saying that but it is anything but clear. As far as I can remember the Twins have never been in the position they're in right now.

I keep thinking that, too, but haven't really found the right place to mention it. (For the record, the "that" mentioned in the post quoted was the notion that the "we know" the Twins won't spend any/enough/lots of money this off-season.) But you're right, there really isn't any history to give a guide here. Comparing to Metrodome years is obviously silly since the overall payroll has vastly increased. I also don't know that we've got much knowledge on how and when and in what ways the new Pohlad may be different than Carl. As for New Ballpark History, the first off-season in Target Field is not even close to a good comparison because the first season was a division winner. And last off-season was much, much different in that four expected starting pitchers were already under contract and coming back. So yes, I'd say this is uncharted territory.

[TheLeviathan]

Even if the Twins do have money to spend, nothing says you can't bank that for a future increase. It's not typically a PR dream, but spending it just to spend it doesn't help much either. This team should take some flyers next season on guys like we did with Burton last year, but planning to fix this team with a few contracts is a big mistake.

[snepp]

Haven't there been quotes from TR in the past saying that they don't roll any budget room forward?

[TheLeviathan]

Haven't there been quotes from TR in the past saying that they don't roll any budget room forward?

If so, that is ridiculous. But I wouldn't be surprised.

[snepp]

If so, that is ridiculous. But I wouldn't be surprised.

Take it with a massive grain o' salt, my recollection is incredibly vague.

[Oxtung]

Even if the Twins do have money to spend, nothing says you can't bank that for a future increase. It's not typically a PR dream, but spending it just to spend it doesn't help much either. This team should take some flyers next season on guys like we did with Burton last year, but planning to fix this team with a few contracts is a big mistake.

It isn't about spending money just to spend the money. It's about helping this team in the short term through free agency, hopefully helping this team in the mid-term if you find the right deals or potentially helping this team in the long term through flipping those FA's for prospects. Along the way you improve the product to the point where you don't lose 100 games which is a very real possibility if the Twins firesale, reduce payroll and don't sign any decent free agents.

[TheLeviathan]

It isn't about spending money just to spend the money. It's about helping this team in the short term through free agency, hopefully helping this team in the mid-term if you find the right deals or potentially helping this team in the long term through flipping those FA's for prospects. Along the way you improve the product to the point where you don't lose 100 games which is a very real possibility if the Twins firesale, reduce payroll and don't sign any decent free agents.

The kinds of FA splashes you're talking about aren't 50M+ kinds of deals. I don't have a problem with a few Willingham-like contracts, but people aren't talking about that. The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects, not hoping 88 losses keeps more fans in the seats than 98. That is a useless, misguided strategy which is all anyone here is suggesting. As has been said by others - winning puts butts in the seats, so build to win - not keep your head above total futility.

[Oxtung]

The kinds of FA splashes you're talking about aren't 50M+ kinds of deals.

 

Please enlighten me on what I am thinking and talking about. You clearly have no idea what I have been saying here or in other threads. Your post on the other hand seems to either be poorly articulated or not well thought out.

 

The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects, not hoping 88 losses keeps more fans in the seats than 98. That is a useless, misguided strategy which is all anyone here is suggesting. As has been said by others - winning puts butts in the seats, so build to win - not keep your head above total futility.

 

So winning helps put butts in the seats but winning 74 games doesn't matter we should instead cut payroll and win 60? The focus should be on acquiring assets but we should still cut payroll and not spend in FA? Why can't you do both? Why can't you trade Morneau, Span, Willingham, Carroll and other veterans that are worth something over the next year and replace them with a combination of minor leaguers as they are ready AND sign FA's that complement those pieces in the midterm and will help keep this team from absolutely cratering in the short term? If those veterans then become expendable, either because like Willingham they play exceptionally well and have great value, or because we have a prospect develop to replace them maybe a couple get flipped for more prospects which then helps us in the long term.

[Mike Sixel]

Given that they cut payroll this year, I see no evidence that they are willing to pay the price in dollars and years to sign big time, or even average, starting pitching.

[DPJ]

Given that they cut payroll this year, I see no evidence that they are willing to pay the price in dollars and years to sign big time, or even average, starting pitching.

That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.

Zack Greinke hasn't been a very good pitcher lately. There's a chance that a Sanchez or Jackson performs just as well as him for 1/2 to 2/3rds the price. They're all the same age.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't they'd sign those guys either "well, tehy got 5 year deals, we just don't want to give pitchers 5 year deals, they get hurt and stuff....". Then they'll sign the guys that are willing to sign for 1-3 years, you know, 38 year old has beens, and 28 year old never weres. I'll believe they do something different, when they give us evidence they will do something different. So far, they've signed old guys for less money than the guys they replaced made. Classic Twins.

[DPJ]

Zack Greinke hasn't been a very good pitcher lately. There's a chance that a Sanchez or Jackson performs just as well as him for 1/2 to 2/3rds the price. They're all the same age.

Small sample size much?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Small sample size much?

Greinke has an ERA+ of around 106-108 in his past 510 innings.

[DPJ]

Greinke has an ERA+ of around 106-108 in his past 510 innings.

 

I don't put much stock into Zack's 2010 as he was completly checked out on a bad Royals team. Not how you would like to see a professional handle his ****, but nevertheless it happened.

 

In 2011 he was saddled with a .318 BABIP and even this year his BABIP is .326. I think Zack's just fine and far and away better then Jackson and Sanchez.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't put much stock into Zack's 2010 as he was completly checked out on a bad Royals team. Not how you would like to see a professional handle his ****, but nevertheless it happened.

 

In 2011 he was saddled with a .318 BABIP and even this year his BABIP is .326. I think Zack's just fine and far and away better then Jackson and Sanchez.

He's also falling apart this season. While you may be okay with ignoring almost three full seasons of pitching, I won't do it. I'd much rather see the Twins target a second tier pitcher like Sanchez or Jackson and get them for 3-4 years at $12-14m per season instead of the 5+ years and $16m+ per season Greinke might demand on the FA market.

 

Zack has been riding his Cy Young season for three years now and hasn't come anywhere close to repeating that performance (according to ERA+, he has been literally half the pitcher he was in 2010). Why on earth would you want to get into a bidding war on a player who is riding a name instead of performance?

[DPJ]

Zack has been riding his Cy Young season for three years now and hasn't come anywhere close to repeating that performance (according to ERA+, he has been literally half the pitcher he was in 2010). Why on earth would you want to get into a bidding war on a player who is riding a name instead of performance?

Well who the hell is gonna repeat an ERA+ 205 He's been saddled with some bad luck over the lack couple seasons but give me around 8.2 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 anyday of the week over Jackson and Sanchez.