The leash on Ricky Nolasco is getting shorter. Right?

[jorgenswest]

I can't imagine teams are going to be swayed by a few good starts leading to an ERA of 4.93.

 

If his performance is going to be noticed by other teams, he needs to show it by preventing real runs and not just the kind that show up in his always better FIP and xFIP. An 8th consecutive year of bad luck? Might be. It also might be the continued disparity between his performance with the bases empty compared to his performance with men on and men in scoring position. That disparity doesn't show up in FIP or xFIP. It only shows up in ERA and RA. Is pitching with runners on base a skill or is it 8 years of bad luck? I think teams looking for a pitcher this summer are going to pay attention to the bottom line. If the Twins have any chance of trading Ricky this summer, he needs to show he can prevent real runs. Three runs in 7 2/3 innings is a good start but he is going to need that and better over the next 8 starts to convince teams to take on his contract and maybe even throw in a future utility player.

[jokin]

 

Don't look now but Ricky is your best Twins starter in this disaster of 2016.

 

My money is on the likelihood that the Twins best starter has been designated by the Twins as a reliever.

[jokin]

 

After Berrios you have Meyer...

 

On the topic of some chap by the name of Meyer... just who is this guy you refer to?

 

[stringer bell]

Nolasco remains an enigma to me. When he effective, as he was last night, he still manages to allow a very high percentage of base runners to score. He seems to defy predictive metrics like FIP.

[jimmer]

 

Nolasco remains an enigma to me. When he effective, as he was last night, he still manages to allow a very high percentage of base runners to score. He seems to defy predictive metrics like FIP.

For the record , there's a difference between FIP and pFIP.  FIP, itself, isn't predictive.  It tells us what a pitcher's performance was as best a stat can (way better than ERA, for example).

 

'FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example. Certain pitchers have shown an ability to consistently post lower ERAs than their FIP suggests, but overall FIP captures most pitchers’ true performance quite well. For this reason, FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for pitchers is based on FIP rather than on ERA and even analysts who prefer a different method of determining WAR find FIP to be extremely useful and informative.'

 

pFIP is from hardball times and it attempts to be a predictive version of FIP, using different weights and giving certain aspects, like strikeouts, more weight.

 

'The weighting of FIP that is supposed to work as a describer puts the lowest weight on strikeouts, but strikeouts by themselves are the most predictive statistic. pFiP attempts to account for this fact by giving strikeouts more weight. The way FIP works as it stands is a much better describer than this statistic would be, but my goal is prediction, not description.

[jorgenswest]

Do any of the ERA estimators account for a difference in performance with runners on base and no one on? Are those differences assumed to be luck? Are there a handful of pitchers whose skill level drops significantly when throwing from the stretch?

 

The various estimators of ERA converge with ERA around 500 innings. For many pitchers, they do. For Nolasco, is it possible that ERA is a better descriptor of his performance than the various ERA estimators?

 

If I am a team considering Nolasco for my rotation, I want to be convinced he can prevent real runs. I want a to be convinced that his history of pitching poorly with runners on base has simply been 8 years of bad luck.

[Kwak]

Summing up, Nolasco will remain in the rotation until further notice. If Ricky can stay "healthy", and the Twins SP options continue to stink, said further notice is the completion of his contract with the Twins.

Considering that the Twins are habitual losers at pitcher development I consider Nolasco remaining in the rotation until his contract expires almost a certainty.

[jokin]

 

Summing up, Nolasco will remain in the rotation until further notice. If Ricky can stay "healthy", and the Twins SP options continue to stink, said further notice is the completion of his contract with the Twins.

Considering that the Twins are habitual losers at pitcher development I consider Nolasco remaining in the rotation until his contract expires almost a certainty.

 

If James Shields can be traded, there must be hope for Ricky moving, if... (and yeah, the Pads ate half of Shields' contract).

[Kwak]

 

If James Shields can be traded, there must be hope for Ricky moving, if... (and yeah, the Pads ate half of Shields' contract).

It's not Nolasco's contract but the lack of viable alternatives: Hughes (he went to the pen for a very good reason); Gibson is returning from injury and quite frankly wasn't very good either; Duffey is not the pitcher we saw in 2015 and his leash may only run another few starts; Santana will stay--so far the only certainty in the rotation, Milone appears to have burned his last bridge with the Twins; Berrios will be spending quite some time in Rochester and there is no certainty that he will stick (yet); today's starter--let's face it he is a patch and no more; everybody else is more than a year away or has no chance.

Bottom line: Nolasco ain't much, but he is able to take the ball every 5th day and generally get to at least get through the 5th inning most times. There just aren't 5 guys who can be trusted yet to just dump him.

[jimmer]

 

It's not Nolasco's contract but the lack of viable alternatives: Hughes (he went to the pen for a very good reason); Gibson is returning from injury and quite frankly wasn't very good either; Duffey is not the pitcher we saw in 2015 and his leash may only run another few starts; Santana will stay--so far the only certainty in the rotation, Milone appears to have burned his last bridge with the Twins; Berrios will be spending quite some time in Rochester and there is no certainty that he will stick (yet); today's starter--let's face it he is a patch and no more; everybody else is more than a year away or has no chance.

Bottom line: Nolasco ain't much, but he is able to take the ball every 5th day and generally get to at least get through the 5th inning most times. There just aren't 5 guys who can be trusted yet to just dump him.

Yeah, but we have all this quality pitching depth that made it necessary to throw May to the bullpen? :-)

[USAFChief]

For the record , there's a difference between FIP and pFIP.  FIP, itself, isn't predictive.  It tells us what a pitcher's performance was as best a stat can (way better than ERA, for example).

 

'FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example. Certain pitchers have shown an ability to consistently post lower ERAs than their FIP suggests, but overall FIP captures most pitchers’ true performance quite well. For this reason, FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for pitchers is based on FIP rather than on ERA and even analysts who prefer a different method of determining WAR find FIP to be extremely useful and informative.'

 

pFIP is from hardball times and it attempts to be a predictive version of FIP, using different weights and giving certain aspects, like strikeouts, more weight.

 

'The weighting of FIP that is supposed to work as a describer puts the lowest weight on strikeouts, but strikeouts by themselves are the most predictive statistic. pFiP attempts to account for this fact by giving strikeouts more weight. The way FIP works as it stands is a much better describer than this statistic would be, but my goal is prediction, not description.

If FIP isn't predictive, what possible reason is there to pay even the slightest attention to it?

 

Why not just pay attention to, uh, what actually happened as a description of what actually happened?

[jimmer]

FIP is the describer of what the pitcher actually did, what he had control over.  The best way to see how the pitcher actually performed. Certainly better than taking into account the randomness of official scorer's decisions and team defense like ERA does.

[USAFChief]

FIP is the describer of what the pitcher actually did, what he had control over.  The best way to see how the pitcher actually performed. Certainly better than taking into account the randomness of official scorer's decisions and team defense like ERA does.

I don't take that as perfect gospel.

[Kwak]

 

Yeah, but we have all this quality pitching depth that made it necessary to throw May to the bullpen? :-)

I don't think May is viable as a starter. Given may's "rough patch" he doesn't appear "trustworthy" of 8th/9th inning duty either.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think May is viable as a starter. Given may's "rough patch" he doesn't appear "trustworthy" of 8th/9th inning duty either.

time to release him then :-)

[DocBauer]

yeah, he pitched well last night. Hopefully he strings a few more good starts together so we can flip him for a future utility player.

 

He did pitch well last night. I know it may sound trite or cliche, but he didn't deserve to lose that game.

 

If he can string together a few more starts like that, and I'm a NL team, where he has spent his entire career outside of his Twins tenure, I'm interested. I still don't want his whole salary on my hands, but he's Ben able to eat innings in the past, had success, and I only have him for 1 more year at what, half salary maybe?

[DocBauer]

I understand and agree with moving Hughes to the pen, if not the DL list. But when I watch Nolasco at times, and he's hitting spots and fooling guys with that breaking ball of his, and I wonder if he wouldn't be better, even re-invent himself in the bullpen?

[DocBauer]

if the Twins cared about advanced stats and the more telling peripherals when making those kind of decisions, May would have never been moved out of the rotation last year. Look where he ranked in those before he got moved out of the rotation. Nolasco, since he's been with us (2+ seasons), has been worth 2.5 WAR.  That's pathetic. May has been worth 2 WAR in only 25 starts (same as Santana in the same amount of starts as Santana).

The problem with statistics is you can make them say what you want at times, depending on which ones you use, and from when you pull them. My goodness, in baseball we measure and have stats for EVERYTHING!

 

I've read both sides of the May arguement, statisticallyrics speaking, and can appreciate both sides to the arguement. (FWIW Jimmer, I agree with your side of the arguement.

 

But my agreement has little to do with statistical analysis. This a team that has several, talented young arms on the rise. But this is also a team that has a lousy past history drafting and signing and developing quality young SP's. And no matter what stats you want to pull from for your side of the arguement, at the end of the day, you STILL have to trust the EYE TEST sometimes.

 

And that eye test always said May could good to very good depending on overall control. He seemed to come a long way in that regard. He got his shot. He was OK, but inconsistent. BUT, he continued to improve, got better and better...and is not a retread but a young arm, you know, the kind this team hasn't had much off...and then got pulled from the rotation for the bullpen. Instead of a retread like Pelfrey?

 

I still don't get it!

 

No matter his ultimate ceiling as a SP, don't you absolutely have to see what you have there?

[jokin]

 

The problem with statistics is you can make them say what you want at times, depending on which ones you use, and from when you pull them. My goodness, in baseball we measure and have stats for EVERYTHING!

I've read both sides of the May arguement, statisticallyrics speaking, and can appreciate both sides to the arguement. (FWIW Jimmer, I agree with your side of the arguement.

But my agreement has little to do with statistical analysis. This a team that has several, talented young arms on the rise. But this is also a team that has a lousy past history drafting and signing and developing quality young SP's. And no matter what stats you want to pull from for your side of the arguement, at the end of the day, you STILL have to trust the EYE TEST sometimes.

And that eye test always said May could good to very good depending on overall control. He seemed to come a long way in that regard. He got his shot. He was OK, but inconsistent. BUT, he continued to improve, got better and better...and is not a retread but a young arm, you know, the kind this team hasn't had much off...and then got pulled from the rotation for the bullpen. Instead of a retread like Pelfrey?

I still don't get it!

No matter his ultimate ceiling as a SP, don't you absolutely have to see what you have there?

 

Yep... When May was moved to the pen a year ago, he was actually doing quite well. Through June 20 he had a FIP/xFIP of 3.12/3.84, K/9 of nearly 8.00, K/BB ratio of 4.34, a decent enough WHIP of 1.29-especially considering a .333 BABIP.

 

All in all, he was pitching quite well in around 4 out of 5 starts. He had a disastrous start on June 26, not getting out of the 1st inning. And even though he redeemed himself somewhat in his next start, he was summarily placed in bullpen limbo as Santana was making ready to take a starter slot in early July. 

[Twodogs]

Nolasco has gone from the 5th starter to staff Ace.  He has nice K ability, it seems that he has found an extra couple of MPH's on his fastball and that is probably why people are flaling away at his breaking balls this year.  Geez, looking at his K to BB rate he looks like he will get an extension, Hughes did???  No but seriously, everyone has a negative opinion of Nolasco and that is getting in the way of actually looking at how he has been pitching lately.  Nolasco brings a lot of intensity out there on the mound which is a nice change from all of the dull pitchers that have been slung out there over the last few years.  His biggest fault was he was injured in that first year and Hughes was not, so Ricky got the blame and Phil got, well, an extension.  I think the Twins poor defense all year has played into some poor starts for all of the pitchers, Santana, Duffy, etc....  I think Nolasco could put together a good season this year, if he goes to another team he will put together a really good season.  The Twins are bad and they don't have much fight in them.  I hope that changes but I'm not sure that it will with this current roster.  This whole thing may need to be blown up, players can get used to losing over time.