Why Ryan should stay, for the time being!

[Mike Sixel]

On the movie analogy......why did you talk about how much money a movie would make, and not how good it was?

 

The goal of a movie is to entertain.....just like sports. There are thousands of good movies with low budgets....just as there have been baseball teams with low budgets that win.

 

IF they are in a rebuild...and if they are spending more money than other teams in rebuilds.....why are they losing more? Doesn't that imply the spending this FO has made was bad spending?

[Shaitan]

 

The quotes about contending don't bother me.  It's the actions that totally back up the quotes, where short term veteran stability usually trumps the future -- no playing time for Kepler, Polanco, Meyer, or even much for Berrios.  No starts for Trevor May.  The commitment to short-term guys like Plouffe, Suzuki, Jepsen, David Murphy, probably Sean Burnett soon, Pelfrey, Duensing, and Boyer last year, etc.

 

I mostly agree, but in May that's not concerning to me yet. In mid-July, yes. Somebody will get hurt, somebody will slump, somebody will be cut and, more or less, that playing time will come.

Where many see the Polanco yoyo as meaning no confidence, I see it as meaning they want him in MLB but there's not a place yet. That place will come.

 

[Guest]

Don't agree here.  We have young kids coming up, and lots of them. The spend component will be low.

 

Eating contracts, on the other hand... yeah, there's something there.  But I don't think payroll is going to need to go up in the short term at least.

 

I was saying no good candidate would say anything other than wanting total control. Do you disagree with that?

[Major League Ready]

 

So, we're a rebuilding team how exactly then? Why is this team worse off than 2011 when TR first came back? It's year 5 of the alleged  rebuild, where are we going? Are they a rebuilding team simply because they suck? If that's the qualifier, he's doing a bang up job.

I think they are a rebuilding team because of the following reasons.

1) The rotation.  They have two rookies that will likely be their best SPs but the need time to develop at the ML level.  They have two veteran pitchers (Nolasco & Hughes)  with no value.  It is also probable that a 3rd member of the rotation is in AAA right now and Gonsalves might just be the key to completing a playoff contending rotation.  It would seem to me the rotation is just getting started in terms of rebuilding.

2) The Outfield – Buxton and Kepler are our best prospects amongst position players.  They are also among the best prospects in the game.  The league has adjusted to Rosario’s lack of plate discipline.   He needs to adjust.  He will be quite good if he can adjust and a 4th outfielder if not.   Bottom line is that it’s probable two-thirds of our future outfield is playing at AAA.  Sano probably (hopefully) moves back to 3rd so it might be appropriate to say our entire outfield is in rebuild mode.

3) The Infield.  1B-Mauer is replacement level.  I am not sure how that will be handled but he is not the best option going forward.  That is probably Park.  2B-It is obvious the league has adjusted to Dozier.  They will pitch away, away, and away.  If he refuses to adjust or cant adjust, he will not be much more than replacement level going forward.  3B-Sano should be the 3b of the future and I join everyone else in wanting him at 3B.  Experiment aside, this is a product of rebuilding.  C-I think we all agree that the catching position needs to be rebuilt.  So, basically, the entire infield is in a state of rebuilding.

4) The bullpen is in transition right now as several people are being auditioned and there is more to come.  Chargois will be here by the AS break and several others are good candidates to be here between now and next season.

 

Sounds like a team in rebuild mode to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I mostly agree, but in May that's not concerning to me yet. In mid-July, yes. Somebody will get hurt, somebody will slump, somebody will be cut and, more or less, that playing time will come.

Guys have already gotten hurt, slumped, and cut.  And the playing time hasn't been there for most of these guys, in fact most of those spots are getting filled with new veterans who are often even harder to cut than the guys they are replacing (no options).

[twinsnorth49]

 

I think your timeline is a bit off.  They thought they were a playoff team in 2011, and after 2010, not many would have disagreed.  2012 would be the soonest timeline where a rebuild would have officially begun, and even that was more a stand pat move given that they had so many injuries in 2011.  This team started it's rebuild in 2013 when they traded Span and Revere for Meyer and May.  Granted, they got a bit of a head start from really bad years in 2011 and 2012, but I don't think it was official until 2013 (and even then they didn't come out and say it though I doubt anyone would ever publicly do so).

 

But to answer the question, I don't think even now they would be in the beginning of one.  They are nearing the end of the rebuild.  They have a nice wave of talented players that need to mature in the majors or need some seasoning in AAA as well as some very interesting options in the lower minors.  What they need to do at this point is start shedding some of those bad contracts and letting the kids that are ready play every day.  They need to add resources where appropriate that have a history of success in taking kids at this level and getting them to make the steps to go from below average to average and from average to above average.  They need to shed contracts where appropriate, and this offseason, they will need to target options that can provide above average value at positions where the farm system doesn't have much in terms of options. 

 

They could still be very competitive in 2017.  I'm not quite as confident in that as I was a year ago, but it's still doable. 

TR came back after the 2011 season, which was a **** show. Presumably it would have occurred to him to begin rebuilding the team then, I'm not convinced he has properly committed to or executed that plan.

[Major League Ready]

 

 

On the movie analogy......why did you talk about how much money a movie would make, and not how good it was?

 

The goal of a movie is to entertain.....just like sports. There are thousands of good movies with low budgets....just as there have been baseball teams with low budgets that win.

 

IF they are in a rebuild...and if they are spending more money than other teams in rebuilds.....why are they losing more? Doesn't that imply the spending this FO has made was bad spending?

Yes.  There are teams that win with low budgets.  The original point is that the Twins have done that better than every other low budget team over a long period of time.  That is a fact that you and others simply wont acknowledge.  You just ignore whatever facts disrupt your rant.

 

Does the fact they are losing more than other teams in rebuild mode indicate bad spending?   They have lost more for a 1/4 season.  There were other teams that lost more over the course of this rebuild and others with just slightly better records.  Obviously, their record was pretty good last year but make no mistake, they were and are still rebuilding.  Regardless, I would still be inclined to say yes.  The FAs have not been productive with the exception of Santana and 1 year for Hughes.  Is this really very far off from what every other team experiences in terms of success with free agents?   

 

Also keep in mind a big part of their spending being higher is that they were stuck with Mauer's contract.  Nobody was going to trade for him at that salary.  Therefore it somewhat misrepresents the teams effectiveness in terms of spending.  They got unlucky that Mauer's injuries derailed his career.  You could argue they should have never signed that extension and I you would have a reasonable point but that is a different argument.   

[Mike Sixel]

The Mauer point is well made.

 

I'm not ranting, I'm merely stating that as a fan, I don't care about anything other than being entertained. 

 

If this is a rebuild, then I don't think the FO has done a good job. Keeping Perkins? why? Why would a rebuilding team do that? Not signing more international guys? Other than budget, which they have enough of....why not more guys? They have not signed guys to flip them, like a rebuilding generally does. Trading Span and Revere are about it for doing what a rebuilding team normally does, and so far, those trades have not been good......

 

How many years should this rebuild take? And no, I don't want to compare it to KC or Pitt taking 30 years. That was abject failure.

[twinsnorth49]

 

I think they are a rebuilding team because of the following reasons.
1) The rotation.  They have two rookies that will likely be their best SPs but the need time to develop at the ML level.  They have two veteran pitchers (Nolasco & Hughes)  with no value.  It is also probable that a 3rd member of the rotation is in AAA right now and Gonsalves might just be the key to completing a playoff contending rotation.  It would seem to me the rotation is just getting started in terms of rebuilding.

 

Until such time they are given the opportunity to develop at the ML level and the no value players are shed it's not really a rebuild. I remain doubtful based on what I've seen so far

 

2) The Outfield – Buxton and Kepler are our best prospects amongst position players.  They are also among the best prospects in the game.  The league has adjusted to Rosario’s lack of plate discipline.   He needs to adjust.  He will be quite good if he can adjust and a 4th outfielder if not.   Bottom line is that it’s probable two-thirds of our future outfield is playing at AAA.  Sano probably (hopefully) moves back to 3rd so it might be appropriate to say our entire outfield is in rebuild mode.

 

This might be the best example of what a disaster this "rebuild" has been, 4 straight years of going into a season with an unproven CF and retroactive backup plans that included, Jason Bartlett, Darin Mastroianni, Jordan Schaefer and Clete ****ing Thomas. Follow that up with the grand scheme to play your future franchise player in RF, despite the fact he plays 3rd base. Speaking of Kepler, when is getting his chance btw?  I mean I know we don't want to take playing time away from Robbie Grossman during a rebuild and all but it seems to me there should be an opportunity.

 

 

3) The Infield.  1B-Mauer is replacement level.  I am not sure how that will be handled but he is not the best option going forward.  That is probably Park.  2B-It is obvious the league has adjusted to Dozier.  They will pitch away, away, and away.  If he refuses to adjust or cant adjust, he will not be much more than replacement level going forward.  3B-Sano should be the 3b of the future and I join everyone else in wanting him at 3B.  Experiment aside, this is a product of rebuilding.  C-I think we all agree that the catching position needs to be rebuilt.  So, basically, the entire infield is in a state of rebuilding.

 

 

Calling the Sano in RF experiment a product of rebuilding is too much spin for me to handle, that is some take. Dozier pulls away, away, away for going on 5 months and the example of their rebuild is to bench him and send Polanco down in order to play future cornerstone Eduardo Nunez. I'll eat my words if Nunez is eventually traded, which he better be but I'm not holding my breath.
Mauer as a replacement level player being an example of a rebuild...................yeah, ok then.

 

 

4) The bullpen is in transition right now as several people are being auditioned and there is more to come.  Chargois will be here by the AS break and several others are good candidates to be here between now and next season.

 

 

Several people being auditioned? Who, that have any business sticking with this team?  Why isn't Chargois here now? Several other good candidates between now and next season? You mean just like the ones TR basically promised between the end of last season and this season but failed to materialize?

Sounds like a team in rebuild mode to me.

 

Sounds like a disaster to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think your timeline is a bit off.  They thought they were a playoff team in 2011, and after 2010, not many would have disagreed.  2012 would be the soonest timeline where a rebuild would have officially begun, and even that was more a stand pat move given that they had so many injuries in 2011.

2012 was the first year of the rebuild.  If it looked "stand pat", it was only because there quite possibly wasn't a single tradeable veteran on his inherited roster from 2011, and TR generally moves quite slowly and conservatively anyway, whether he is building, rebuilding, whatever -- you could argue most every TR season looks like a "stand pat" year compared to the year prior.

 

If the organization expected to stand pat, reload and contend, they probably wouldn't have made the GM switch that offseason.  They didn't trust Smith to be able to rebuild (indeed, he probably missed a few more chances to get it going during his last year).

[Mr. Brooks]

Once again, you have ignored they are in a rebuilding phase. Are you trying to say that it is not normal for teams to spend less during a rebuilding phase or if you a prefer, a phase when the team is not in contention? It would appear, you want them to do something other teams deem to be a bad practice unless I wrong that other teams do not spend at their highest levels during a rebuild phase.

 

Houston had a payroll around 30 million in 2013 and $52M in 2014. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2013/

 

The Marlins, As, Pirates and Padres had a payroll of 36M, 66,72, and 73 respectively. I don't know for sure but I would guess these teams have stadiums were funded by the public. At least the padres and Marlins could say they were rebuilding. The A's and Pirates were obviously past their rebuilding phase as they were 90+ win teams. The point being. You have an expectation that teams spend every available dollar because they get public funds but teams don't spend money just because they can. That is a ridiculous premise.

I don't think it's ridiculous at all.

Again, I understand not spending during a rebuild. But, then they should be willing to carry that savings over to later years when they are ready to compete.

They won't do that though.

 

Or, they could have omitted the false statements about needing the stadium so that they could spend more.

 

They said something that they knew had a fair chance of turning out to be false, to convince taxpayers to fund the stadium.

That is a fact.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think they are a rebuilding team because of the following reasons.
1) The rotation.  They have two rookies that will likely be their best SPs but the need time to develop at the ML level.  They have two veteran pitchers (Nolasco & Hughes)  with no value.  It is also probable that a 3rd member of the rotation is in AAA right now and Gonsalves might just be the key to completing a playoff contending rotation.  It would seem to me the rotation is just getting started in terms of rebuilding.

 

Until such time they are given the opportunity to develop at the ML level and the no value players are shed it's not really a rebuild. I remain doubtful based on what I've seen so far

 

2) The Outfield – Buxton and Kepler are our best prospects amongst position players.  They are also among the best prospects in the game.  The league has adjusted to Rosario’s lack of plate discipline.   He needs to adjust.  He will be quite good if he can adjust and a 4th outfielder if not.   Bottom line is that it’s probable two-thirds of our future outfield is playing at AAA.  Sano probably (hopefully) moves back to 3rd so it might be appropriate to say our entire outfield is in rebuild mode.

 

This might be the best example of what a disaster this "rebuild" has been, 4 straight years of going into a season with an unproven CF and retroactive backup plans that included, Jason Bartlett, Darin Mastroianni, Jordan Schaefer and Clete ****ing Thomas. Follow that up with the grand scheme to play your future franchise player in RF, despite the fact he plays 3rd base. Speaking of Kepler, when is getting his chance btw?  I mean I know we don't want to take playing time away from Robbie Grossman during a rebuild and all but it seems to me there should be an opportunity.

 

 

3) The Infield.  1B-Mauer is replacement level.  I am not sure how that will be handled but he is not the best option going forward.  That is probably Park.  2B-It is obvious the league has adjusted to Dozier.  They will pitch away, away, and away.  If he refuses to adjust or cant adjust, he will not be much more than replacement level going forward.  3B-Sano should be the 3b of the future and I join everyone else in wanting him at 3B.  Experiment aside, this is a product of rebuilding.  C-I think we all agree that the catching position needs to be rebuilt.  So, basically, the entire infield is in a state of rebuilding.

 

 

Calling the Sano in RF experiment a product of rebuilding is too much spin for me to handle, that is some take. Dozier pulls away, away, away for going on 5 months and the example of their rebuild is to bench him and send Polanco down in order to play future cornerstone Eduardo Nunez. I'll eat my words if Nunez is eventually traded, which he better be but I'm not holding my breath.
Mauer as a replacement level player being an example of a rebuild...................yeah, ok then.

 

 

4) The bullpen is in transition right now as several people are being auditioned and there is more to come.  Chargois will be here by the AS break and several others are good candidates to be here between now and next season.

 

 

Several people being auditioned? Who, that have any business sticking with this team?  Why isn't Chargois here now? Several other good candidates between now and next season? You mean just like the ones TR basically promised between the end of last season and this season but failed to materialize?

Sounds like a team in rebuild mode to me.

 

Sounds like a disaster to me.

 

I think they are a rebuilding team because of the following reasons.
1) The rotation.  They have two rookies that will likely be their best SPs but the need time to develop at the ML level.  They have two veteran pitchers (Nolasco & Hughes)  with no value.  It is also probable that a 3rd member of the rotation is in AAA right now and Gonsalves might just be the key to completing a playoff contending rotation.  It would seem to me the rotation is just getting started in terms of rebuilding.

 

Until such time they are given the opportunity to develop at the ML level and the no value players are shed it's not really a rebuild. I remain doubtful based on what I've seen so far

 

2) The Outfield – Buxton and Kepler are our best prospects amongst position players.  They are also among the best prospects in the game.  The league has adjusted to Rosario’s lack of plate discipline.   He needs to adjust.  He will be quite good if he can adjust and a 4th outfielder if not.   Bottom line is that it’s probable two-thirds of our future outfield is playing at AAA.  Sano probably (hopefully) moves back to 3rd so it might be appropriate to say our entire outfield is in rebuild mode.

 

This might be the best example of what a disaster this "rebuild" has been, 4 straight years of going into a season with an unproven CF and retroactive backup plans that included, Jason Bartlett, Darin Mastroianni, Jordan Schaefer and Clete ****ing Thomas. Follow that up with the grand scheme to play your future franchise player in RF, despite the fact he plays 3rd base. Speaking of Kepler, when is getting his chance btw?  I mean I know we don't want to take playing time away from Robbie Grossman during a rebuild and all but it seems to me there should be an opportunity.

 

 

3) The Infield.  1B-Mauer is replacement level.  I am not sure how that will be handled but he is not the best option going forward.  That is probably Park.  2B-It is obvious the league has adjusted to Dozier.  They will pitch away, away, and away.  If he refuses to adjust or cant adjust, he will not be much more than replacement level going forward.  3B-Sano should be the 3b of the future and I join everyone else in wanting him at 3B.  Experiment aside, this is a product of rebuilding.  C-I think we all agree that the catching position needs to be rebuilt.  So, basically, the entire infield is in a state of rebuilding.

 

 

Calling the Sano in RF experiment a product of rebuilding is too much spin for me to handle, that is some take. Dozier pulls away, away, away for going on 5 months and the example of their rebuild is to bench him and send Polanco down in order to play future cornerstone Eduardo Nunez. I'll eat my words if Nunez is eventually traded, which he better be but I'm not holding my breath.
Mauer as a replacement level player being an example of a rebuild...................yeah, ok then.

 

 

4) The bullpen is in transition right now as several people are being auditioned and there is more to come.  Chargois will be here by the AS break and several others are good candidates to be here between now and next season.

 

 

Several people being auditioned? Who, that have any business sticking with this team?  Why isn't Chargois here now? Several other good candidates between now and next season? You mean just like the ones TR basically promised between the end of last season and this season but failed to materialize?

Sounds like a team in rebuild mode to me.

 

Sounds like a disaster to me.

 

You went from "So, we're a rebuilding team how exactly then" to "sounds like a complete disaster to me."  That's quite a change in position from one post to the next.  Can I assume my answer satisfied your question as to how exactly this team is still rebuilding?

 

Obviously, the present team is very bad.  Thus, the need to rebuild.  It would be a disastrous situation if the team did not have good prospects.  How is it a disaster to be in a situation where you have prospects that should be better, in some case, much better than the players you have at every position?  I would agree it will be a disaster if we can't build a great team from all these prospects but we are not even close to that point presently.

[howeda7]

 

The payroll this year is roughly the same as 2010. In reality, their revenue this year is probably flat versus 2010. While local/national TV money is somewhat higher, they will sell less tickets. Also, in 2010 they were still receiving revenue sharing from the Metrodome days. That went away in 2011.

 

That said, I will not apologize for the Pohlads. They could easily afford a $120-130 million payroll as almost everyone else in the division has. 

 

1) No, they are not spending a comparable percentage of revenue any more. They did the first couple of seasons, it has steadily dropped since.

2) I would agree, but the Twins don't carry any savings over to future seasons, so I'd rather they spend it on payroll rather than pocket it.

3) I'm not arguing that they shouldn't have a responsible cap. My argument is they are not even spending that.

 

[howeda7]

If they play .500 ball starting today (that's probably as good as they are capable of) they will still lose 90 games. All that's left of this season is to see what degree the dumpster fire is. 

 

It's pretty rare for a team to go from 100+ losses to the playoffs the next year. If the Twins are going to want to inspire confidence in being very competitive in 2017, they need to end the rest of this season on a somewhat high note by playing .500 ball, at this stage, I don't see that happening. Way too many issues in the rotation, pen, lineup and defense.

Make no mistake, the 2016 Minnesota Twins are a very bad team.