Per Jon Heyman, Antonio Bastardo has an agreement with...

[Loosey]

It comes down to the fact the Twins need to choose a route to go with the bullpen.  Cobble it together with veterans and cast offs.  OR Bring up the young guys to see what they have.  No more of this go half way with the prospects then at the first sign of struggles send them down.  By not signing Bastardo or any other Major League Bullpen arm they are indicating the latter.  Now hopefully they continue to go this route and let them figure it out and build what could become a very dominant, young bullpen if things pan out.

 

Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin and Abad are OK for now and hopefully just a stop gap.

[tobi0040]

 

It comes down to the fact the Twins need to choose a route to go with the bullpen.  Cobble it together with veterans and cast offs.  OR Bring up the young guys to see what they have.  No more of this go half way with the prospects then at the first sign of struggles send them down.  By not signing Bastardo or any other Major League Bullpen arm they are indicating the latter.  Now hopefully they continue to go this route and let them figure it out and build what could become a very dominant, young bullpen if things pan out.

 

Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin and Abad are OK for now and hopefully just a stop gap.

 

My personal view is we have a team that could contend for the division.  So neither strategy makes a ton of sense  (giving roster spots to guys that have largely failed elsewhere or letting prospects fail and work through the growing pains).

 

I would prefer to sign 1-2 good relievers.  Then you have 5-6 prospects who would need to light up AAA to force themselves to the big show for the remaining 1-2 spots.

 

[Loosey]

 

My personal view is we have a team that could contend for the division.  So neither strategy makes a ton of sense  (giving roster spots to guys that have largely failed elsewhere or letting prospects fail and work through the growing pains).

 

I would prefer to sign 1-2 good relievers.  Then you have 5-6 prospects who would need to light up AAA to force themselves to the big show for the remaining 1-2 spots.

I agree with your reasoning for a team ready to contend for the division.  I just don't think the Twins will do that this year.  The Central got very good and the Twins stayed status quo, which I assume means they are planning on giving the young guys, pitchers and hitters, the chance to develop into a future perennial contender.

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe, just dont like the roll of the dice strategy with the pen. The Royals and Yankees have a much different strategy

 

How do you figure the Royals strategy is different? Holland, Herrera and Davis as a reliever were all unknown commodities when they got inserted into their rolls.

 

The reward for rolling the dice is much higher than the reward for hedging their bets. Even if the roll of the dice doesn't pan out, the consequences aren't that great unless someone actually thinks the difference between Bastardo and Abad/Rogers/Melotakis is the difference between making or missing a playoff spot.

 

I don't think Bastardo in any way puts the team over the top.

[Loosey]

 

You are ready and so am I.  But are the Twins?  I think young guys will start to break through in June.  They seem to favor veterans between April and June.  Unfortunately those games count the same as the one's in August.

 

Not signing one good reliever this off-season will come back to bite us

You make a very good point about the games counting the same in April as they do in August.  Everyone points out last season that the only reason the Twins were in the race was because of their excellent May and then played about as expected, maybe slightly better the rest of the way.  What lots of people seem to forget about is just how badly they started.  1-6 was an awful way to get started, and I believe part of it was because they didn't field the best team they could have.  They win a few more of those 1st 6 and they may have made the playoffs. 

[tobi0040]

 

How do you figure the Royals strategy is different? Holland, Herrera and Davis as a reliever were all unknown commodities when they got inserted into their rolls.

 

The reward for rolling the dice is much higher than the reward for hedging their bets. Even if the roll of the dice doesn't pan out, the consequences aren't that great unless someone actually thinks the difference between Bastardo and Abad/Rogers/Melotakis is the difference between making or missing a playoff spot.

 

I don't think Bastardo in any way puts the team over the top.

 

Davis was a starter for three years in Tampa.  His ERA was 3.72, 4.07, and 4.45.  Then he was given a 5 year deal and moved to the pen.  In his one year in the pen there he had a 2.45 ERA and struck out 11.1 batters per 9 in 70 innings (159 ERA+)

 

Both Herrrera and Holland were signed or drafted young by the Royals and came up at relatively young ages and have been very good since arriving. 

 

None of these three were cast-aways from other organizations. minor league signings that were out of baseball for two years like Buddy Boshers, etc. or DFA'd like Abad.

[drjim]

You're not factoring in New York City taxes, which bump NYC above Minnesota. I know this because I lived there for two years and had to get very creative with my tax filings in order to evade them. But as my Grandpa always says, if you're not getting audited every few years, you're not doing it right.

Which is a fair point, and certain states have unique taxes for professional athletes, who actually pay income taxes in the state they play specific games in, so who knows how it all washes out.

 

But Minnesota does have a higher base rate than New York for highest earners. Not sure how city slices that up depending on how they tax players and where he would actually live.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I like Mark Lowe and think he was the best free agent relief steal this offseason.

But I'm ready for the Twins to finally put their money where their mouth is, and their mouth has rarely been at the free agent make-out party. They've been slobbering all over hard throwing relief pitchers in the draft for a half decade and it's time to put up or shut up. They've already likely committed spots to low upside guys by tendering Fien a contract and having to make room for a vet like Nolasco.

If the young guys fail, than go nuts, do the free agent bit, and the team then needs to admit they haven't done well enough scouting and/or developing and internal changes should be made. However it's well past time, no more screwing around, you can't continue to value, hoard and protect young pitchers and be too scared to let them prove themselves at the MLB level. We need to see what these guys can do, but they'll do jack squat if they're getting bumped by some 30-year old

 

Except that does also not appear to be the plan. Odds any of the young relievers are here in April or May?

[nicksaviking]

 

Davis was a starter for three years in Tampa.  His ERA was 3.72, 4.07, and 4.45.  Then he was given a 5 year deal and moved to the pen.  In his one year in the pen there he had a 2.45 ERA and struck out 11.1 batters per 9 in 70 innings (159 ERA+)

 

Both Herrrera and Holland were signed or drafted young by the Royals and came up at relatively young ages and have been very good since arriving. 

 

None of these three were cast-aways from other organizations. minor league signings that were out of baseball for two years like Buddy Boshers, etc. or DFA'd like Abad.

 

Right, these guys weren't Antonio Bastardo or Tyler Clippard. They're Burdi, Chargois, and I don't know, Milone would be the Davis comp I guess? Not in ability but in the method of acquisition.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Except that does also not appear to be the plan. Odds any of the young relievers are here in April or May?

 

Perhaps not, but the odds keep improving with fewer 30-year-olds vets on the roster.

 

And I'd rather see these guys in May and June than September.

[Buford_T_Justice]

 

Just....  I mean....  THE single most glaring weakness of this team last year, and what.....    Oh, hell, never mind.

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Han Joelo]

For what its worth, I read on MLBTR that the Pirates offered two years/$8 million.  Given they know him best, I think that price tag and what he got indicates the marginally incremental value he provides.

 

I'm more excited to see if Chargois or Burdi can arrive on the scene and announce their presence with authority.  Bastardo just isn't that much of difference maker to get upset about.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Which is a fair point, and certain states have unique taxes for professional athletes, who actually pay income taxes in the state they play specific games in, so who knows how it all washes out.

But Minnesota does have a higher base rate than New York for highest earners. Not sure how city slices that up depending on how they tax players and where he would actually live.

 

City taxes are high and you pay them if you work in NYC - so people who commute from Jersey or Connecticut still pay them. I am currently not making diddly but back then was in a different line of work and experienced the higher tax brackets. MN is significantly nicer than NYC.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I also don't think there's a huge difference between a guy like Bastardo and a guy like Abad. Not enough to make much of a difference in the standings anyway.

You can make that case about a lot of individual roster spots, especially in the bullpen.  But it adds up. Also, there are indirect effects -- maybe Abad isn't a huge downgrade in the standings from Bastardo in a single spot/role (although check Abad's splits vs LHB), but a scuffling Abad might mean we run Perkins out there injured, or keep May in the pen even if we have trouble in rotation, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For what its worth, I read on MLBTR that the Pirates offered two years/$8 million.  Given they know him best, I think that price tag and what he got indicates the marginally incremental value he provides.

The Pirates are also cheap, I wouldn't read too much into that.  The Twins knew Torii Hunter best and offered him 3/45 when he got 5/90 on the open market...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the young guys fail, than go nuts, do the free agent bit,

Wasn't that kind of the approach into 2015?  Obviously we weren't planning on contending, but all we heard about was that Meyer could instantly boost the pen and Burdi and Reed weren't far behind, etc.

 

Also, characterizing a single 2/12 type signing as "going nuts" is kind of a problem here.  It's not going nuts, in fact given what we saw from our MLB bullpen and prospects in 2015, acquiring another good Jepsen-level reliever for 2016 would be the conservative, prudent move.  With no one but Perkins signed beyond 2016, there is still a metric ton of flexibility in this pen to add a veteran arm and promote prospects.

[tobi0040]

 

The Pirates are also cheap, I wouldn't read too much into that.  The Twins knew Torii Hunter best and offered him 3/45 when he got 5/90 on the open market...

 

Not to mention the market is the highest bidding teams view of a players value.  Not just one team.

[nicksaviking]

 

-- maybe Abad isn't a huge downgrade in the standings from Bastardo in a single spot/role (although check Abad's splits vs LHB), but a scuffling Abad might mean we run Perkins out there injured, or keep May in the pen even if we have trouble in rotation, etc.

 

I don't want May to stay in the bullpen, but I actually think this works out better for a team, because I'd think a scuffling Abad would more likely mean the team gives Rogers or Melotakis a shot.

 

A scuffling Bastardo means more struggling Bastardo because the Twins have him on a multi-year deal. They'll pull the plug on a guy on a minor league deal much sooner than a guy under contract in 2017.

[howieramone2]

 

 

Wasn't that kind of the approach into 2015?  Obviously we weren't planning on contending, but all we heard about was that Meyer could instantly boost the pen and Burdi and Reed weren't far behind, etc.

 

Also, characterizing a single 2/12 type signing as "going nuts" is kind of a problem here.  It's not going nuts, in fact given what we saw from our MLB bullpen and prospects in 2015, acquiring another good Jepsen-level reliever for 2016 would be the conservative, prudent move.  With no one but Perkins signed beyond 2016, there is still a metric ton of flexibility in this pen to add a veteran arm and promote prospects.

Actually, Meyer was considered a starter going into 2015. No one from the Twins said one word about Burdi or Reed making it to Target Field in 2015.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Wasn't that kind of the approach into 2015?  Obviously we weren't planning on contending, but all we heard about was that Meyer could instantly boost the pen and Burdi and Reed weren't far behind, etc.

 

Also, characterizing a single 2/12 type signing as "going nuts" is kind of a problem here.

 

I think the Twins straddled the fence in 2015, they got some free agents and relied on some prospects. As it turned out, the guys, both the bats and the arms, outplayed the vets in nearly every way. To me the youth movement was by far the most encouraging part of 2015, the free agent movement was disappointing. I'm ready to go all in with the part of the plan that worked.

 

If the Twins fail at the drafting/developing angle, I would be upset if they didn't go nuts and do the free agent thing and I wouldn't settle for a Bastardo, I'd want a whole lot more. I'm all for changing a losing strategy.

 

In 2011 I was all for going big in free agents, but the team didn't do that and instead implied a rebuild was the plan and a focus on restocking the system was made. Deviating from that now would be like watching the build up during Star Wars, but instead of showing the scene of the attack and blowing up the Death Star, at the last moment they decided they'd show us a scene of diplomatic relations attempting to end the reign of the Empire.

 

This is what they said they were going to do, I want to see them follow through. As Mike or someone else said somewhere above, I don't want them to be able to fall back on an excuse that they failed because some veteran didn't come in and do what was expected of him. I want them to man up, take the plastic off of these guys, put their necks on the line and try to prove that they can draft and develop players.

[DaveW]

Terry Ryan drops the ball again! Not really shocked since he never spends on RP and Ryan rarely if ever changes his ways (even with the glaring lack of success the Twins have had under his lead)

 

April can't come soon enough (NFL Draft!)

[jorgenswest]

Maybe, just dont like the roll of the dice strategy with the pen. The Royals and Yankees have a much different strategy

This is how the World Champion Royals did it.

 

Entering age 25, Holland was a mediocre AAA reliever with poor command.

Entering age 28, Davis was a failed starter.

Herrera was a 22 year old with a big arm.

At 34, Madden signed a minor league free agent contract after missing the three previous seasons.

At 29, Morales signed a minor league free agent contract having posted ERAs above 4 every season since 2007.

Entering age 29, Hochever was a failed starter.

 

Failed starters, minor league free agent contracts and hoping on younger big arms with questionable command is exactly how the Twins are doing it.

[tobi0040]

 

This is how the World Champion Royals did it.

Entering age 25, Holland was a mediocre AAA reliever with poor command.
Entering age 28, Davis was a failed starter.
Herrera was a 22 year old with a big arm.
At 34, Madden signed a minor league free agent contract after missing the three previous seasons.
At 29, Morales signed a minor league free agent contract having posted ERAs above 4 every season since 2007.
Entering age 29, Hochever was a failed starter.

Failed starters, minor league free agent contracts and hoping on younger big arms with questionable command is exactly how the Twins are doing it.

 

It is the big three that make KC’s pen great and I think you are selling them short.   None were the minor league free agent types, cast offs, etc.

 

It is a bit of a stretch to say that Wade Davis was a failed starter, it is more complicated than that.  He had three years as a starter in TB and was effectively league average.  He was bumped to the pen because they had a top five rotation in baseball.  In his one year in the pen, he was completely lights out.   KC traded for him knowing they likely had a league average-ish starter or a really good reliever.  They started him and he had his worst year.  The fallback was a top reliever, which he has been.  I think this is similar to the Twins view of May.  They think he is a league average starter or a top reliever.  Just as I don’t think May is a failed starter, I don’t think Davis was either.

 

Holland struggled a bit with command in the minors, but has had bouts of issues in the majors too.  His MLB average is 3.5 BB per 9.  3.9 as a rookie, 4.6 in 2010, and 5.2 last year.  The thing is, they don’t care because his overall numbers are phenomenal.  2.42 career ERA with over 12 k’s per 9.  In fact, prior to being promoted to the big show, his last two years in the minors he had 4.8 and 4.6 BB per 9.  

 

The irony here is Hollands minor numbers look similar to Burdi’s, but I am not convinced the Twins look past the BB’s towards the 12 k’s per 9 like the Royals did.

 

Herrera wasn’t just a big arm.  He had great numbers in the minors and was promoted at 21.  He went from high A to AAA that year with a 1.60 ERA, 9.3 k per 9 and 2 BB per 9

 

 

[jharaldson]

 

Actually, Meyer was considered a starter going into 2015. No one from the Twins said one word about Burdi or Reed making it to Target Field in 2015.

 

Direct quote from Terry Ryan in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook:

 

 PH: You’ve got a lot of power arms in the system. Are you expecting some

of them to jump up for competition next year?
TR: Yeah, we do. I do. I would expect some of those guys to surface this year.
I was hoping maybe last year but it was maybe one year premature.

 

Spycake was directionaly correct in his statement that the Twins banked on minor league guys filling in the gaps last year and it didn't work out and I would put money on Burdi being one of those guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spycake was directionaly correct

I'll take it!

[tobi0040]

 

I'll take it!

 

Like, oil will go all the way down to $42.  Nailed it!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't want May to stay in the bullpen, but I actually think this works out better for a team, because I'd think a scuffling Abad would more likely mean the team gives Rogers or Melotakis a shot.

 

A scuffling Bastardo means more struggling Bastardo because the Twins have him on a multi-year deal. They'll pull the plug on a guy on a minor league deal much sooner than a guy under contract in 2017.

How does it make sense to oppose acquiring a veteran reliever like Bastardo because you don't trust the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans, but then turn around and advocate an aggressive MLB promotion strategy that implicitly requires the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans?

 

If we are wish-casting anyway, why not acquire another arm better than Abad and improve the baseline projection?  There is still plenty of room for them to be aggressive with promotions if they want to be.  In addition to Abad, the projected roster thread has Tonkin, Nolasco in the pen, Jepsen and Fien who are midseason trade candidates given their contract status, May who could also start, and Perkins who is probably an aggressive DL candidate.  If they don't have both Santana and Arcia on their bench, they will likely have the option to add an extra reliever when they want too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is how the World Champion Royals did it.

Entering age 25, Holland was a mediocre AAA reliever with poor command.
Entering age 28, Davis was a failed starter.
Herrera was a 22 year old with a big arm.
At 34, Madden signed a minor league free agent contract after missing the three previous seasons.
At 29, Morales signed a minor league free agent contract having posted ERAs above 4 every season since 2007.
Entering age 29, Hochever was a failed starter.

Failed starters, minor league free agent contracts and hoping on younger big arms with questionable command is exactly how the Twins are doing it.

In addition to tobi's points above, the Twins have never signed a reliever with Madson's record of quality.  Not all minor league deals are equal -- Blaine Boyer was never going to be a trusted setup man in a pennant race or postseason, regardless of how well he performed.

 

They've never acquired a pitcher coming off a relief season like Davis's 2012 with Tampa.

 

They've never really tried to find a "LOOGY in the rough" with an MLB pitcher like Morales.

 

They've never aggressively promoted a reliever like Herrera, Finnegan, or even Tim Collins (all age 21 debuts).

 

They've never aggressively cut a guy with a good ERA but poor peripherals like Jason Frasor.  (Actually the Twins have done the reverse quite a bit, most recently with Aaron Thompson.)

 

Otherwise, yeah, exactly how the Royals are doing it.

 

Granted, some of it is just execution -- the Twins haven't yet developed guys like Holland, Herrera, etc. -- but I see that as a concern that should be addressed (perhaps by a modest acquisition of another established reliever) rather than simply an excuse to wait longer.

[nicksaviking]

 

How does it make sense to oppose acquiring a veteran reliever like Bastardo because you don't trust the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans, but then turn around and advocate an aggressive MLB promotion strategy that implicitly requires the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans?

 

If we are wish-casting anyway, why not acquire another arm better than Abad and improve the baseline projection?  There is still plenty of room for them to be aggressive with promotions if they want to be.  In addition to Abad, the projected roster thread has Tonkin, Nolasco in the pen, Jepsen and Fien who are midseason trade candidates given their contract status, May who could also start, and Perkins who is probably an aggressive DL candidate.  If they don't have both Santana and Arcia on their bench, they will likely have the option to add an extra reliever when they want too.

 

I guess it boils down to the fact that I want to see the prospects as soon as possible and between Abad or a more accomplished veteran, Abad is the path of least resistance. They may not be up right away, but they'll be up a lot sooner if they aren't blocked by a guy on a less palatable contract.

 

The Twins giving young pitchers the run of the house is out of their comfort zone, but that's what I want to see happen. Their offseason talk and their offseason inaction is giving plausible hope that they may actually be considering this option. They did it with the young bats last year.

 

[drjim]

If you want to be really controversial, you could say that Fernando Abad was a fluky hr rate (compared to the previous 2 seasons) of being about the same pitcher as Bastardo. A little lower k rate balanced by a lower bb rate.

 

And I don't necessarily buy the reverse split for Abad, seems more flukey (hr rate) than reality.

 

I still would like to see another reliever acquired. Terry Ryan keeps dropping enough hints to make me think there is a decent chance it will happen.