Per Jon Heyman, Antonio Bastardo has an agreement with...

[tobi0040]

 

If you want to be really controversial, you could say that Fernando Abad was a fluky hr rate (compared to the previous 2 seasons) of being about the same pitcher as Bastardo. A little lower k rate balanced by a lower bb rate.

 

And I don't necessarily buy the reverse split for Abad, seems more flukey (hr rate) than reality.

 

I still would like to see another reliever acquired. Terry Ryan keeps dropping enough hints to make me think there is a decent chance it will happen.

 

Plouffe for a reliever and a prospect.  That is my call.

[drjim]

 

Plouffe for a reliever and a prospect.  That is my call.

 

That makes sense, but there has been such a slow movement of position guys, I wonder if there is even that much of a market.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you want to be really controversial, you could say that Fernando Abad was a fluky hr rate (compared to the previous 2 seasons) of being about the same pitcher as Bastardo. A little lower k rate balanced by a lower bb rate.

 

And I don't necessarily buy the reverse split for Abad, seems more flukey (hr rate) than reality.

That is controversial.

 

Their 2015 xFIPs are similar, but Bastardo has a better history of out-performing his xFIP.  Also note that Abad's numbers have generally been accumulated in very low-leverage work.

 

Also note Abad's reverse split is not limited to 2015, he has been worse against LHB in each of the last 3 seasons.

[drjim]

 

That is controversial.

 

Their 2015 xFIPs are similar, but Bastardo has a better history of out-performing his xFIP.  Also note that Abad's numbers have generally been accumulated in very low-leverage work.

 

Also note Abad's reverse split is not limited to 2015, he has been worse against LHB in each of the last 3 seasons.

 

Interesting, he has done better significantly better in K-BB against lefties the past three years but his OPS against is the opposite. 

 

Fluke! Small sample size! I actually can't explain it, but think there might be something there. Though Abad really should be the second lefty, if anything.

[drjim]

Boom. Mike Strong.

 

We're coming, we're coming.

[tobi0040]

Boom. Mike Strong.

 

We're coming, we're coming.

The missing link. I was actually hoping for someone that would not require a Google search.

 

Darnell DFA

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Though Abad really should be the second lefty, if anything.

 

Yeah, with Abad and now Strong, we seem to be amassing options for second lefty, and not too eager to deploy our potential LOOGY weapons O'Rourke and Rogers in that role.

 

Maybe the Twins are valuing "versatility" more than platoon match ups?  A weird position to take in the modern game with 7-8 man bullpens but that feels like what we're doing.

 

EDIT: As well as not too eager to make Perkins the top lefty setup guy, which could be another potential solution...

[tobi0040]

 

Yeah, with Abad and now Strong, we seem to be amassing options for second lefty, and not too eager to deploy our potential LOOGY weapons O'Rourke and Rogers in that role.

 

Maybe the Twins are valuing "versatility" more than platoon match ups?  A weird position to take in the modern game with 7-8 man bullpens but that feels like what we're doing.

 

Just another pioneering strategy

[drjim]

 

Yeah, with Abad and now Strong, we seem to be amassing options for second lefty, and not too eager to deploy our potential LOOGY weapons O'Rourke and Rogers in that role.

 

Maybe the Twins are valuing "versatility" more than platoon match ups?  A weird position to take in the modern game with 7-8 man bullpens but that feels like what we're doing.

 

EDIT: As well as not too eager to make Perkins the top lefty setup guy, which could be another potential solution...

 

I think the Twins are in a great position to use my pet theoretical bullpen strategy. I'm a believer that you need to keep relievers in pretty set roles at a given time, rather than constantly changing each game trying to chase leverage.

 

With that said, I think you could do co-closers, a LH and RH, and match up the 8th and 9th accordingly depending on expected matchups. Use May as the 7th and occasional 8th guy, and let Jepsen and Perkins take the last two innings. Jepsen is a free agent to be and Perkins has a long term deal, so financially they could be amenable. The Twins briefly stumbled into it a couple years ago with Perkins and Burton, but Jepsen is obviously better.

 

Of course, this would work even better if they had another good LH reliever to form the bridge with May to the co-closers.

[howieramone2]

 

Direct quote from Terry Ryan in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook:

 

 

Spycake was directionaly correct in his statement that the Twins banked on minor league guys filling in the gaps last year and it didn't work out and I would put money on Burdi being one of those guys.

I stand by my statement. No one from the Twins said one word about Burdi or Reed making The Show in 2015. That is not directionaly correct, whatever that is, it's totally correct.

[jharaldson]

 

I stand by my statement. No one from the Twins said one word about Burdi or Reed making The Show in 2015. That is not directionaly correct, whatever that is, it's totally correct.

 

Here is a quote from a story LaVelle from last April:

 

"By the end of the 2015 season, the Twins could see third baseman Miguel Sano, outfielder Byron Buxton, righthander Alex Meyer, righthander Jose Berrios and outfielder Eddie Rosario make their major league debuts. Infielder Jorge Polanco could return after his emergency call-up from Class A last year. Two hard-throwing relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed, could enter the picture to help a bullpen that lacks power pitchers."

http://www.startribune.com/twins-waiting-for-the-wave-of-talent-to-hit/298680051/

 

And another from Reusse in Nov 2014:

 

"Perhaps, Buxton will do that much sooner. Perhaps, Buxton, Sano and Berrios, and Jake Reed, Nick Burdi and Zach Jones as hard-throwers in the bullpen … perhaps, we might see some of them next season.

But for now, Paul Molitor has another concern. Now.
"Now is important," he said."

http://www.startribune.com/reusse-molitor-knows-now-is-the-time-to-compete/281539081/

 

What I agree with you on is that there is not a hard quote from Terry Ryan in spring training that says "We expect Burdi and Reed to contribute this year (2015)."  That doesn't exist and makes you technically correct.  To counter that though I would say that have a good chunk of evidence that does say that indirectly:

 

- Hard quote from Terry Ryan that he had expected some minor league relievers to have contributed in 2015.  Who is he talking about if not Reed and Burdi?

 

- Multiple journalists seeming to get the same names on background on who those guys might be coming up.  One when talking to Molitor about his new job in the fall and one talking to Ryan about the team entering the season.  Same info from different people at different times.

 

- Logical speculation from smart Twins Daily writers came to the same conclusion:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16884-article-td-top-prospects-10-nick-burdi/

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20978-article-drafting-college-relievers/

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17678-nick-burdi-2015/

 

I fully believe that the Twins expected one of Burdi/Reed/Jones to contribute last year and are leaving space in the bullpen for them this year and we will have to agree to disagree on that.