Berrios getting hosed

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"front offices secure enough to attempt something like this..."

 

All we are talking about is calling up a guy from the minors, right? I guess I am with Mike on this. Berrios threw 6 innings and 90 pitches in just about every Rochester start he made last year. I assumed all along that the Twins were in charge of what happens at their minor league affiliates, but maybe not.

[drjim]

 

What about the Yankees and Severino?

 

Also, while there are some similarities with Glasnow and Snell, there are some key differences too.  Neither pitched in AA until 2015, with Snell actually beginning the 2015 season repeating high-A and Glasnow missing over a month of action early in the year.  Both pitched fewer innings than Berrios in 2014 too, by 2-3 starts for Glasnow and probably a month of action for Snell.  Snell in particular came out of nowhere a bit in 2015, not ranking on any preseason top 100 lists according to B-Ref.  Both showed Meyer-esque control issues at high-A in 2014 too (over 4 BB/9).

 

In terms of experience and arguably refinement, Berrios was ahead of them when the season began, and did nothing to change that relative ranking during the 2015 season.  So it's not really fair to use them as a yardstick to justify Berrios' placement at the end of the season.

 

And in team context, the Rays and Pirates both had better pitching staffs than the Twins, particularly in terms of top-end talent in both the rotation and bullpen.  They had less to gain from a prospect addition than the Twins -- even if those pitchers performed well, it's not clear there was an opportunity to even crack the top 2-3 in those pens and rotations.  Meanwhile, multiple pitchers (Duffey, Jepsen, and May) were able to crack the top spots in our pen and rotation over the final two months.  Even with a less than dominant debut performance, Berrios could have easily been one of our first options to start or enter a critical win-or-go-home, tiebreaker, or playoff game 1.

 

Also, the Pirates pretty much had their playoff spot locked up at the trade deadline, giving them less incentive to make a big push.  And the Rays were further behind the Twins, were actually sellers at the deadline, and rank notably behind the Twins in terms of revenue, all giving them more incentive to look forward to 2016.

 

The key difference is the Yankees had a clear plan to get Severino in the majors starting beginning in spring training, because they would have had a higher expectation of competition.

 

And come on, the Twins are much, much closer to the Rays and Pirates than the Yankees in financial matters.

 

The counterexample, in my mind, is Houston and McCullers. But McCullers was a better prospect, probably more ready, and the Astros had the much better start and more time to prepare. The Astros are clearly much more aggressive in many areas.

[drjim]

 

"front offices secure enough to attempt something like this..."

All we are talking about is calling up a guy from the minors, right? I guess I am with Mike on this. Berrios threw 6 innings and 90 pitches in just about every Rochester start he made last year. I assumed all along that the Twins were in charge of what happens at their minor league affiliates, but maybe not.

 

That specific side thread was more about significantly pushing total innings pitched in a season - so if he would have been called up and allowed to start every 5-6 days until the end of the season and what impact that has on a young arm going forward.

 

Teams are generally very conservative about pushing innings increases significantly for young arms as they first break into the majors - Mike suggested there is no evidence of any downside to doing this, I don't agree, because every team will be conservative in pushing innings, there is likely something driving that internally, even if we don't have all the data externally, and there are really no studies out there disproving it either.

 

Berrios finished 2015 30ish innings above 2014, and if they would have pushed him in September for another 5 starts, that would have been a pretty significant jump.

 

I personally would have called him up in August to work as a multi-inning reliever, but also acknowledge the risk and potential cost going forward (ie potentially setback in his development, not setting him up for finishing this season as a starter). I also think just putting him the rotation towards the end of the minor league season and letting him take a turn every 5 days would have been irresponsible and no team would have done that - without a very specific plan that was implemented for day 1 to limit innings throughout the season to allow a finish. Berrios is much too valuable going forward to take that sort of risk, especially considering the overall quality of the team last year.

[Mike Sixel]

So basically, we should expect him to be shut down again this year....meaning if they really want value from him, he should be up early. Otherwise they will need to shut him down in September, or am I not understanding correctly?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I personally would have called him up in August to work as a multi-inning reliever

I agree, and this would likely have had the effect of eliminating a few of his Rochester starts and overall curtailing his innings, or I would have even called up Berrios in September for some spot appearances, similar to how Kepler was used. In any case we will see him soon enough.

[tobi0040]

 

So basically, we should expect him to be shut down again this year....meaning if they really want value from him, he should be up early. Otherwise they will need to shut him down in September, or am I not understanding correctly?

 

He did have 166 innings last year.  If he goes 20-30 above that next year I don't know that he would be shut down.  That is a little less than 6 innings over 34 starts.  He will likely have a few clunkers in there at 2-4 innings each. 

 

It does beg the question, if he starts in AAA should be on a pitch/inning count?  I vote yes.  Give him 4-5 innings per start and 4-5 starts in Rochester.  Then on May 1 he has 155-165 innings to go across 28 starts or so with the big boys.

[drjim]

 

So basically, we should expect him to be shut down again this year....meaning if they really want value from him, he should be up early. Otherwise they will need to shut him down in September, or am I not understanding correctly?

 

Not understanding correctly.

 

But it also explains the primary reason why he won't start the season in the big league rotation. He'll start in AAA, those initial innings will be managed a little bit, and when he gets called up he'll be ready to go for the rest of the season. Finished around 160 innings last year, should be in line to get around 185 this year. Gradual buildup and then ready for a wire to wire season in the bigs in 2017.

[Willihammer]

Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?

[tobi0040]

 

Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?

 

The difference is millions of dollars in 6-7 years.

[drjim]

 

Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?

 

The primary reason would be they won't have a specific day in mind when to recall him. He will likely be the 6th starter and need to be ready to come up if someone is injured. He'll have to be in the habit of going every 5 innings, and ready to step in.

 

I do think he can go about a full season, he is likely to be more of a 5-6 inning guy than a 7 his first several starts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The key difference is the Yankees had a clear plan to get Severino in the majors starting beginning in spring training, because they would have had a higher expectation of competition.

 

And come on, the Twins are much, much closer to the Rays and Pirates than the Yankees in financial matters.

 

The counterexample, in my mind, is Houston and McCullers. But McCullers was a better prospect, probably more ready, and the Astros had the much better start and more time to prepare. The Astros are clearly much more aggressive in many areas.

I never said the Twins were closer to the Yankees than the Pirates, please don't put words into my mouth!

[Willihammer]

 

I do think he can go about a full season, he is likely to be more of a 5-6 inning guy than a 7 his first several starts.

What if the Twins make the playoffs?

[drjim]

What if the Twins make the playoffs?

Good problem to have?

 

Or they will be so far ahead they can skip a start or three late in the season...

[drjim]

I never said the Twins were closer to the Yankees than the Pirates, please don't put words into my mouth!

You were pushing the Yankee example while stating financial considerations for the other two. Didn't think it was an unfair next step to compare the Twins to the three organizations listed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What if the Twins make the playoffs?

 

then they can shut him down, like the Nationals, because they knew they'd get back to the playoffs again and improve every year after that......

[Willihammer]

 

Good problem to have?

Or they will be so far ahead they can skip a start or three late in the season...

Shut down a productive pitcher and hurt your playoff chances, or, keep him going and risk damaging him long term? Seems like a crummy problem to have IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You were pushing the Yankee example while stating financial considerations for the other two. Didn't think it was an unfair next step to compare the Twins to the three organizations listed.

I wasn't pushing it, I mentioned his name once because it appeared you missed it. Actually note that I did not discuss McCullers at all, I think his rapid ascent was more of an outlier and make him a less apt comparable than Severino.

 

And financially, all I mentioned was that Tampa is arguably the worst revenue team in MLB. I didn't bring up the Twins or Pirates financials at all. Feel free to disregard if you like, you can make a pretty clear line between the 2015 clubs in terms of promoting these prospects, based on on-field performance and needs anyway

[Thrylos]

 

You seriously can't believe this can you? The kid was dominating the International League as a 21 year old in August and September. He had a sub 2 ERA with a ridiculous 53/4 K/BB ratio in 45 innings pitched. Straight domination as one of the youngest players in AAA.

 

Which part can I not believe?  The fact that Duffey had better ERA, FIP and BB/9 than Berrios in AAA?  Nothing to believe there... it's a fact.

[The Wise One]

 

Fringe is not my goal.  I want continued excellence.  Sometimes you have to take 1 step back to take __ steps forward.  How many divisional championships did Atlanta win in a row once Smoltz (HOF) and Glavine (HOF) figured it out? 1991 to 2005

 

Big picture

Big picture. Sometimes having prospects fail only leads them to failure. When your club is at rock bottom  your results may be due to the team around you . The lumps Glavine and Smoltz  took  might have been the lumps from having a poor team. What they had to figure out was how not to pitch on a poor team.  Funny how their win totals went up when they allegedly figured it out e their peripheral numbers did not appreciably change

 

 

[The Wise One]

 

You seriously can't believe this can you? The kid was dominating the International League as a 21 year old in August and September. He had a sub 2 ERA with a ridiculous 53/4 K/BB ratio in 45 innings pitched. Straight domination as one of the youngest players in AAA.

Berrios pitched 75 innings total in AAA  and had much higher numbers That would lead me to believe that the league was figuring him out. So if I ignore 1/3 of someone's season, I can make them look better or worse depending on my agenda.

 

Cherrypicked stats are a bit of a pet peeve

[laloesch]

 

I never said the Twins were closer to the Yankees than the Pirates, please don't put words into my mouth!

 

"please don't put words into my mouth"

 

Haha good luck with that.  Happens a lot around here.

[bird]

 

Which part can I not believe?  The fact that Duffey had better ERA, FIP and BB/9 than Berrios in AAA?  Nothing to believe there... it's a fact.

 

 

The statistical facts are indisputable. However, your conclusion regarding them is very much debatable.

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?

You clearly wouldn't want to bring him in Opening Day to gain that extra year of control. Do you think bringing him up anywhere past July would be to eliminate the chance of potentially gaining Super-2 arbitration the same year as Duffey and Kepler in 2019? Or is that just overthinking?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?

I think it is unlikely that Berrios would exceed a 190 IP limit in his rookie season.  Last year, May was only on pace for ~167 IP when they moved him to the pen.  Berrios would have to pitch like Liriano circa 2006 to be likely to exceed 190 IP this year.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think it is unlikely that Berrios would exceed a 190 IP limit in his rookie season.  Last year, May was only on pace for ~167 IP when they moved him to the pen.  Berrios would have to pitch like Liriano circa 2006 to be likely to exceed 190 IP this year.

 

Right, if Berrios got 30 starts and averaged 6 innings a start, he's only at 180 total and Ryan's deliberate pace calling up pitchers and Gardy and Molitor's history of giving young pitchers a much shorter leash than the vets say both the starts and innings are unlikely any way.

 

Even if he got 5 starts in AAA averaging 8 innings per game, he'd still need 25 MLB starts averaging 6 innings each to get to 190 total. Only way he gets to 190 IP this year is if he stays in AAA the entire season.

[Willihammer]

 

I think it is unlikely that Berrios would exceed a 190 IP limit in his rookie season.  Last year, May was only on pace for ~167 IP when they moved him to the pen.  Berrios would have to pitch like Liriano circa 2006 to be likely to exceed 190 IP this year.

I think most fans and pundits would rank Berrios a better prospect than May pre 2015, and less than Liriano cca 2006. If you use those two as a rough range of outcomes it seems reasonable Berrios falls in the middle somewhere, which would be right about 180-190 IP in the regular season.

[drjim]

 

I think most fans and pundits would rank Berrios a better prospect than May pre 2015, and less than Liriano cca 2006. If you use those two as a rough range of outcomes it seems reasonable Berrios falls in the middle somewhere, which would be right about 180-190 IP in the regular season.

 

I think if he starts in Rochester he will lose a start or two based on late start to the season and the extra day or two during the callup. If he is up he can be finessed around the all start break and maybe another start or two pushed back/skipped throughout the year.

 

I see them having a plan to maximize his mlb effectiveness as opposed to last year when there was probably no plan in spring training to push him. I would bet the low end of that estimate, more like 170-180 ip by the time the season ends, which would give him the opportunity to make a handful of starts in the playoffs and still not have pushed him irresponsibly. If they don't make the playoffs it is still a good outcome for Berrios, as he won't be pushed and will have logged enough innings to be quite ready to go a full year, opening day to game 7, in 2017.

[mnfanforlife]

If Berrios starts the season with the Twins, i will be shocked. Thrilled. But shocked. $$$$$$$$

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd be surprised because of the number of SP we have, but not shocked about money. The Twins are pretty frugal, but they don't have a history of playing service time games to save money.

 

That's one of the reasons why I thought we could have called him up last year.

[drjim]

 

I'd be surprised because of the number of SP we have, but not shocked about money. The Twins are pretty frugal, but they don't have a history of playing service time games to save money.

That's one of the reasons why I thought we could have called him up last year.

 

I would also add that money probably have very little bearing on the decision not to bring him up. And likely will have very little bearing this year.

 

I agree it is more about numbers and depth (this year).