Regression to the Mean

[Ncgo4]

Let's think back to the month of May with a great deal of fondness. The ice on lake Vermillion finally went away, the bluebirds were back singing and Congress was on spring break. Oh yeah, Twin's hitters were hitting .350 with runners on base and the pitchers were all hitting the corners with evil sliders.

 

The other 4 months? Congress is back, California is on fire and they've got no water and Twin's hitters and pitchers are back to their real levels of capabilities.

 

We have 13 pitchers and arguably our "Ace" is a guy who just returned following a drug suspension and if we made the playoffs (we won't) he would be ineligable. Our best SP prospect on the staff is, we think, no longer used as a SP but rather our 8th inning set-up guy. I say, "we think" because we haven't had a close lead in the 8th inning for about a week, so who knows.

 

Our best hitter is a 20 game rookie, who has no one hitting behind him so every one is able to pitch around him. What opponent cares if he walks once or twice a game?

 

This is not a good baseball club. In spite of our "great" farm system we won't be anytime soon. We have 1 real pitching prospect coming up that is advanced enough that we can maybe count in him, Senior Berrios. But remember, he's too short. One of the few other exciting prospects, Hu, we traded for a marginal long reliever because, by God, that's what we needed to save this season. But, hey, he couldn't strike anyone out, so how good could he be? He just kept missing bats.

 

We don't have a shortstop or catcher in the farm system we Can even fanticize could help the teamsters and the "best prospect in baseball" cannot stay healthy and doesn't have the brains to tell his manager when he's injured so he plays with a sprained thumb and turns a 15 day DL into a 45 game rehab.

 

This is not a good team and despite 4 years of drafting in the top 5, we are not going to be good in the next 3 or 4 years either. A total house cleaning is needed and it has to start with the Man in charge, Mr. Ryan.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Bro, quit being such a downer. Maybe you are negative because we just had our rear ends handed to us by a vastly Superior Blue Jays club. Who could blame you? But if we are 3-4 years away from being competitive... time to pack up the tents because we have been sold a bill of goods for the last 2 or 3 years.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are coming back down to where they were expected to be, however it's largely for all the wrong reasons.  When you think about regressing to the mean in terms of baseball, you think of players coming back down to where you expect them to be, and the Twins regression should be due to rookies hitting the wall. 

 

Rosario hasn't been great the last two weeks, but he hasn't been a huge problem and Sano and Hicks have been the best players on the team.  The issue lies with Mauer, Dozier, Hunter and Plouffe who have been abysmal the last two weeks and Suzuki all year.  These guys didn't regress to the mean, they regressed far, far below their expectations.

 

The bullpen has been terrible as expected, but the Twins actually should probably be playing better simply because there's just no way those vets should be this bad. 

 

Don't tell anyone, but I've already written the season off so I'm not completely opposed to some of the vets completely coming unglued and seeing if the front office will have the guts to roll with a regular/platoon lineup that featured nine batters under the age of 30.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins won't be good for 3-4 more years?

 

We must be watching different teams because I think they're on the verge of being good now, they just need a SS, another plus starter, and some bullpen arms. They can get most of those things from the farm in the next 12 months.

[jimmer]

 

The Twins won't be good for 3-4 more years?

We must be watching different teams because I think they're on the verge of being good now, they just need a SS, another plus starter, and some bullpen arms. They can get most of those things from the farm in the next 12 months.

You didn't mention catcher.  And when you look at the just need list you provided,  that's actually a lot of pieces, if you think about it.  And there's no evidence to suggest they will go get those things nor evidence to suggest the farm will provide those at a passable level.  We are counting too many eggs from our farm system when saying we are right on the verge. Do we forget the huge fail rate on prospects? It could very well be 2017, 2018 (if then) before we are actually real contenders.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You didn't mention catcher.  And when you look at the just need list you provided,  that's actually a lot of pieces, if you think about it.  And there's no evidence to suggest they will go get those things nor evidence to suggest the farm will provide those at a passable level.  We are counting too many eggs from our farm system when saying we are right on the verge. Do we forget the huge fail rate on prospects? It could very well be 2017, 2018 (if then) before we are actually real contenders.

I didn't mention catcher because having one major flaw on the team won't kill it. I'd try to upgrade the position - it might be my first priority, actually - but having either SS or C fixed is enough to keep me happy. Slotting one bad player in the nine hole is pretty common, even amongst good teams.

 

Notice I didn't say the word "contender" in my post. I said "good". I expect the Twins to improve next season and I hope they'd win somewhere around 83-86 games, which classifies as "good" in my book (assuming things like the bullpen are not a complete mess like they are today).

 

I'm aiming for "good" first... Then I'll aim for "contender".

[Mike Sixel]

Another year of non-contention.....ugh. But ya, w/o some kind of overhaul, I think good is much more likely than contender next year.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Another year of non-contention.....ugh. But ya, w/o some kind of overhaul, I think good is much more likely than contender next year.....

With the right moves and a bit of luck, that team could contend. Will they dominate? No, I doubt that... Domination would require a slew of things to go right and almost nothing to go wrong.

 

I don't think the ALC will be very good next year unless a team goes nuts this offseason, which helps the Twins reach "contender" status pretty easily. I think KC will fall to earth a bit, CLE/CHI will improve, DET will get old and drift away, and the division will have a lot of parity (though obviously, loads can change during the offseason).

 

If the Twins make 1-2 savvy moves this offseason (it won't even require any big moves, really), I see them as the second team behind KC going into 2016. At that point, anything can happen.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Ah, of course! elite pitching talent. I knew we had forgotten to stock up on something. Why don't we have any of those?

 

Boy, will you ever "change" your "tune" once the "best prospect in baseball" becomes an "adult man" and "develops" into the "player" that the consensus of "baseball people" expect him to "become."

 

Tired of these "brilliant" "assessments" of this "bad" roster full of 22-25 year old ballplayers.

 

Somebody grab this guy a tissue.

 

 

[bluechipper]

Baseball is full of parity (mediocrity) these days. Every team has flaws. With some minor improvements to the bullpen and the next three prospects- Buxton, Berrios, and Polanco coming up and hopefully getting established as MLB players, this team should be a contender next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Roster full of 22-25 year olds? Are we talking about the Twins?

 

Of the 13 pitchers, May and Graham are 25, and Graham will be in the minors next year. Both will be 26 next year.

 

Sano is the lone infielder under 26.

 

Hicks is 25, and Rosario is 23.

 

 

[Kwak]

 

The Twins won't be good for 3-4 more years?

We must be watching different teams because I think they're on the verge of being good now, they just need a SS, another plus starter, and some bullpen arms. They can get most of those things from the farm in the next 12 months.

Umm, More than that!  Another power hitter (sorry Arcia isn't him!) to bat behind Sano.  Sort of the Manny behind Papi, or Maris behind Mantle... .  SS the Twins are seemingly always trying to fill that position.  Only briefly was the position properly manned in recent times--and then for about 1.5 years only.  Plouffe--is he staying?  No contract offer in site.  True, Sano can hit--a ton!, but he is unproven in the field.  3B has been another open-wound since Koskie left, except for Plouffe (barely).  One hole gets 'fixed"--only to open a new hole.  If Buxton the new Joe Bftzphlyk?  I hope not--but things aren't looking so bright on the longevity/everyday "Eddie" front.  Having the (2nd) best CF is useful if he's generally injured.  A second "top" SP--Wow!  Those guys grow on trees.  Right now this team is a "hope"--which is a huge improvement over the "hopeless" of three years ago--but "good team" is a stretch to describe next year's Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Umm, More than that!  Another power hitter (sorry Arcia isn't him!) to bat behind Sano.  Sort of the Manny behind Papi, or Maris behind Mantle... .  SS the Twins are seemingly always trying to fill that position.  Only briefly was the position properly manned in recent times--and then for about 1.5 years only.  Plouffe--is he staying?  No contract offer in site.  True, Sano can hit--a ton!, but he is unproven in the field.  3B has been another open-wound since Koskie left, except for Plouffe (barely).  One hole gets 'fixed"--only to open a new hole.  If Buxton the new Joe Bftzphlyk?  I hope not--but things aren't looking so bright on the longevity/everyday "Eddie" front.  Having the (2nd) best CF is useful if he's generally injured.  A second "top" SP--Wow!  Those guys grow on trees.  Right now this team is a "hope"--which is a huge improvement over the "hopeless" of three years ago--but "good team" is a stretch to describe next year's Twins.

Do you ever say anything positive about this team? Honest question.

 

A second bat behind Sano... Yeah, that'd be nice. It could also be a guy already on the team: Brian Dozier. Or Sano can bat behind Dozier. Tomato, tomahto. I think the offense problem will largely sort itself out in time through Vargas, Arcia, Kepler, Hicks, Rosario, et al.

 

Plouffe doesn't need to be under contract. He has two more years of team control. If the Twins want him - and I don't see why they wouldn't - they have him through 2017.

 

Buxton's injuries are frustrating but guys are only injury prone until they aren't. Given the weirdness of Buxton's injuries - this sliding injury is the first injury he has had where you can really point to him doing something wrong - there's no reason to think the kid is going to break down at age 22.

 

A "top" starting pitcher... Well, the Twins have a 21 year old kid in AAA and he's kinda kicking ass down there. Maybe you've heard of him.

 

Are the Twins guaranteed to be good in 2016-2018? No, no team is guaranteed success over a three year period... But in my opinion, the Twins are better positioned to be successful during that time than any other team in baseball not playing in Chicago or Houston. They have a slew of talent and most of that talent has tasted major league baseball... Keep those kids on the field and it's likely we'll see them power the Twins to winning records in the near future.

 

It's rare to see a team with middling success that is going to lose zero players who can't be readily replaced either internally or via budget free agency acquisitions. Yet that's the position the Twins will find themselves this offseason. It's not going to be hard to make this team better this offseason... Hell, if Ryan literally does nothing this offseason, they still probably enter 2016 as a better squad than they are in 2015.

[nicksaviking]

 

Roster full of 22-25 year olds? Are we talking about the Twins?

 

Of the 13 pitchers, May and Graham are 25, and Graham will be in the minors next year. Both will be 26 next year.

 

Sano is the lone infielder under 26.

 

Hicks is 25, and Rosario is 23.

 

More likes for this one please.  Watching this team fall on it's face the last two weeks, clearly the handfull of young players on the roster aren't the issue. 

 

The players listed in this post are almost exclusively the only players I like watching lately.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

More likes for this one please.  Watching this team fall on it's face the last two weeks, clearly the handfull of young players on the roster aren't the issue. 

 

The players listed in this post are almost exclusively the only players I like watching lately.

So what's the problem, then? Sano is a titan, Rosario's got serious, versatile game, Buxton's hair is radical, and May has proven himself as a much improved starter with a team-first attitude.

 

When  you consider the proportional load that the kids are carrying, yes, this team is full of 22-25 year old players. When you talk about the Twins, that's who you're talking about.

[Kwak]

 

Do you ever say anything positive about this team? Honest question.

 

A second bat behind Sano... Yeah, that'd be nice. It could also be a guy already on the team: Brian Dozier. Or Sano can bat behind Dozier. Tomato, tomahto. I think the offense problem will largely sort itself out in time through Vargas, Arcia, Kepler, Hicks, Rosario, et al.

 

Plouffe doesn't need to be under contract. He has two more years of team control. If the Twins want him - and I don't see why they wouldn't - they have him through 2017.

 

Buxton's injuries are frustrating but guys are only injury prone until they aren't. Given the weirdness of Buxton's injuries - this sliding injury is the first injury he has had where you can really point to him doing something wrong - there's no reason to think the kid is going to break down at age 22.

 

A "top" starting pitcher... Well, the Twins have a 21 year old kid in AAA and he's kinda kicking ass down there. Maybe you've heard of him.

 

Are the Twins guaranteed to be good in 2016-2018? No, no team is guaranteed success over a three year period... But in my opinion, the Twins are better positioned to be successful during that time than any other team in baseball not playing in Chicago or Houston. They have a slew of talent and most of that talent has tasted major league baseball... Keep those kids on the field and it's likely we'll see them power the Twins to winning records in the near future.

 

It's rare to see a team with middling success that is going to lose zero players who can't be readily replaced either internally or via budget free agency acquisitions. Yet that's the position the Twins will find themselves this offseason. It's not going to be hard to make this team better this offseason... Hell, if Ryan literally does nothing this offseason, they still probably enter 2016 as a better squad than they are in 2015.

Q1--I just posted positive--"A team that has hope...".  But way too early to just sit back and expect things will just naturally get better.  The management (top on down) has to fix holes--not just assume "the best farm system...will turn them into contenders.  Will they?  I have hope, but the silence from the Front Office (except for "the best farm system...) doesn't inspire confidence.  Toronto isn't awesome--but "they believe"--and thus play like they are awesome (for now). The Twins didn't show much fight--but not long ago (pre-ASG) they had plenty of fight.  Where did it go?  I'm sure it's in there somewhere--but management hasn't done its part (IMO). The next 9 games (against "lesser" opponents) will tell us where that fight is.  I have no doubt it will reappear next Spring (positive enough for you?) but leadership is lacking.  Leadership starts at The Very Top.  It was shown last fall by a commitment to better players (free agents) [another positive!]--but the players need to see more.  May '15 earned them that from the Front Office--will they get it?  Are there enough Positives in this post for you?

[Brock Beauchamp]

You'll get no arguments from me that the front office let down the team in July and they have to step it up this offseason to improve the team. As I've said before, I'll be very disappointed if we don't see at least one move that significantly improves this team for 2016.

[nicksaviking]

 

So what's the problem, then? Sano is a titan, Rosario's got serious, versatile game, Buxton's hair is radical, and May has proven himself as a much improved starter with a team-first attitude.

 

When  you consider the proportional load that the kids are carrying, yes, this team is full of 22-25 year old players. When you talk about the Twins, that's who you're talking about.

 

So five out of 25 is too many young players for a rebuilding team?  Can't tell if we're talking to Ryan or Gardy here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So five out of 25 is too many young players for a rebuilding team?  Can't tell if we're talking to Ryan or Gardy here.

 

I think he's claiming it is a young team because those 5 are young......not that it is too many......