Twins Should Call Up & Platoon Kepler NOW.

[Rosterman]

 

I also think Kepler needs to be playing everyday.

 

I have to think they can find a guy on the waiver wire who can hit LHP better than Robinson though in the meantime...

We don't need to add someone's rejects from the waiver wire when we have potential prospects that we need to look at and that could possibly produce. We need to be moving mroe pieces, actually, on the waiver wire to see if we can get anything (besides salary relief) and to make room for potential prospects to play. Pelfrey, Suzuki, Robinson, Nunez, Boyer, Duensing, Fien and even Jepsen can all move on and repalced by comparable pieces from within the organization. As for Chattanooga in the playoffs, you can always move some players down from Rochester if need be (Rodriguez for one).

[tobi0040]

 

I don't think the Graham situation is mind-boggling at all. Every team needs a long man and if the Twins want to stash a Rule V guy as their long man, that's not a terrible solution.

 

It's everything else about the bullpen that drives me insane. Stashing one Rule V guy is not the Twins' problem... In fact, Graham has been entirely serviceable out of the pen this season. The problem is stashing a Rule V guy in the pen and then filling 2-4 other slots with horrible pitchers.

 

It is a terrible solution if it means Trevor May then gets bumped from your rotation for good this year (because you have Graham as your long/swing guy). And it also meant we could never use him in 80% of situations. I think this roster spot and how we have used him has hurt the pen this year.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree on Graham. He's been surprisingly effective, and every bullpen needs a long guy. Frankly, I'd have liked to have seen them use Graham more as the season went on, not less.

 

I'd rather that long relief spot go to a guy with a possible future, that you know needs to go back down, or a guy w/o much future, than a guy like May.

 

I don't for one minute think having Graham on the roster is a problem. The problem, imo, is how they've chosen to use Graham.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Wow, is Kepler a better hitter than Buxton?  Just asking.

 

A better hitter, possibly, yes. They both can slug comparably, though that doesn't mean 25+ homer power (still could develop, for both).

[Shane Wahl]

In recent games against RH starters, the Twins have had 3 or 4 left-handed bats, including Escobar and Hicks (still shaky from that side). Christ, another has been Mauer. There's a way in some of those games to have Hicks, Mauer, Arcia, Rosario, Kepler, and Polanco instead. Could be 1, 3 (you know), 5, 6, 7, and 9 right there.

 

Edit: Forgot Rosario!

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Buxton looked like he did with the twins strikeouts and a few hits. Kepler has a very smooth swing. He looked like Justin Mournou (sic) in his prime, very smooth swing, lots of line drives. Buxton looked like he had a youngster who could hit fastballs but struggled with other pitcjes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree on Graham. He's been surprisingly effective, and every bullpen needs a long guy. Frankly, I'd have liked to have seen them use Graham more as the season went on, not less.

 

I'd rather that long relief spot go to a guy with a possible future, that you know needs to go back down, or a guy w/o much future, than a guy like May.

 

I don't for one minute think having Graham on the roster is a problem. The problem, imo, is how they've chosen to use Graham.

Yep, fully agreed. My only issue with Graham being on the roster is that he continues to pitch lower leverage innings despite showing a relative level of competence. He could have been the seventh inning guy through June and July and the team would have been better for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock, that's not an absurdly high BABIP, and Kepler's good performance extends well beyond his slash line.  He's walking almost as much as he's striking out, for instance.  Drop his BABIP 40 points if you want, but what does that do?  Takes away 8 hits, mostly singles?

Here is Kepler's BABIP per level:

 

2015: AA - .373

2015: A+ - .316

2014: A+ - .304

2013: A - .254

 

Which number looks like the outlier?

 

I'm not knocking Max - not even a little bit, as I'm really high on the guy - but .373 is a number to cause minor hesitation in gauging his current performance vs. ability.

 

You couple that BABIP with his SLG %:

 

2015: AA - .540
2015: A+ - .333
2014: A+ - .393
2013: A - .424

 

Maybe Kepler is for real. Maybe this is the new Max... but I'd wait it out before aggressively moving the kid up the ladder. Very little is lost by keeping Max in AA for the rest of the season. If he keeps hitting, move him to AAA to start 2016 and he's a half-skip away from the Majors.

 

Or hell, even call him up this September and see how he looks but there should be concerns with those numbers and how Kepler is achieving them, particularly when compared to his numbers in previous seasons.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Here is Kepler's BABIP per level:

 

2015: AA - .373

2015: A+ - .316

2014: A+ - .304

2013: A - .254

 

Which number looks like the outlier?

 

I'm not knocking Max - not even a little bit, as I'm really high on the guy - but .373 is a number to cause minor hesitation in gauging his current performance vs. ability.

 

You couple that BABIP with his SLG %:

 

2015: AA - .540
2015: A+ - .333
2014: A+ - .393
2013: A - .424

 

Maybe Kepler is for real. Maybe this is the new Max... but I'd wait it out before aggressively moving the kid up the ladder. Very little is lost by keeping Max in AA for the rest of the season. If he keeps hitting, move him to AAA to start 2016 and he's a half-skip away from the Majors.

 

Or hell, even call him up this September and see how he looks but there should be concerns with those numbers and how Kepler is achieving them, particularly when compared to his numbers in previous seasons.

 

But even if his BABIP drops 70 points he'd still be much better against RHP than Hicks. That is the point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But even if his BABIP drops 70 points he'd still be much better against RHP than Hicks. That is the point.

That's a pretty large assumption.

 

As we saw with Hicks going from AA/MLB, those New Britain/Chatanooga numbers don't translate very reliably to the majors, doubly so if there are concerns the prospect is playing over his head in AA.

 

Kepler doesn't hit many homers and he doesn't strike out a lot. Don't underestimate what a normalized BABIP could do to his slash line. Whack .050 off his BA and .050-.070 from his SLG and you suddenly have an .800-.830 OPS player in AA. Still impressive, but not nearly as impressive as .950.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Actually, Kepler's SLG is largely driven by his high batting average and doubles/triples.  His HR rate is lower than Hicks' at AA at the same age.

 

I don't think they are particularly similar as players, but I think they are similar in that neither has shown either the dominance of Sano or the consistency of young Mauer that would suggest skipping AAA is a good idea.  They can both still be very good MLB players, but don't strike me as the kind that can be rushed.

 

Yeah, I noticed the absurd amount of doubles and triples. I also remember the insane amount of triples that Buxton hit in AA this year. Is there anything about the park(s) they play in that would inflate this? Kepler and Buxton's SLG% does seem highly inflated upon their triples, and not HR power. 

 

On another note, I like to take it down a notch when getting excited about our young players. I like to think of realistic middle ground comps for them, in terms of bat/power/fielding/speed. What do we honestly think Kepler's comps are now, and if he hits his "average safe" ceiling? Is a corner OF with little power all that valuable, especially with Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton give you similar profiles of decent, but not great bats, very little power, good speed, and good defense?

 

Lets here some realistic corner OF comps? Not separate bat, and separate in the field.

[nytwinsfan]

 

That's a pretty large assumption.

 

As we saw with Hicks going from AA/MLB, those New Britain/Chatanooga numbers don't translate very reliably to the majors, doubly so if there are concerns the prospect is playing over his head in AA.

 

Kepler doesn't hit many homers and he doesn't strike out a lot. Don't underestimate what a normalized BABIP could do to his slash line. Whack .050 off his BA and .050-.070 from his SLG and you suddenly have an .800-.830 OPS player in AA. Still impressive, but not nearly as impressive as .950.

Yes, but how many times do I have to say this. Hicks is hitting with a .600 OPS against RHP. POINT SIX ZERO ZERO. Your previous argument that Arcia should be the one called instead up was reasonable and debatable (although I disagree for the reasons I pointed out). But the idea that Kepler wouldn't hit better than Hicks against RHP is really hard to buy.  You would have to assume he loses .330-.350 in OPS against righties. Impossible? No, but I'll take that bet for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, I noticed the absurd amount of doubles and triples. I also remember the insane amount of triples that Buxton hit in AA this year. Is there anything about the park(s) they play in that would inflate this? Kepler and Buxton's SLG% does seem highly inflated upon their triples, and not HR power. 

 

On another note, I like to take it down a notch when getting excited about our young players. I like to think of realistic middle ground comps for them, in terms of bat/power/fielding/speed. What do we honestly think Kepler's comps are now, and if he hits his "average safe" ceiling? Is a corner OF with little power all that valuable, especially with Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton give you similar profiles of decent, but not great bats, very little power, good speed, and good defense?

 

Lets here some realistic corner OF comps? Not separate bat, and separate in the field.

Dunno, maybe an alternate universe version of Milton Bradley where his head isn't jammed up his ass.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, but how many times do I have to say this. Hicks is hitting with a .600 OPS against RHP. POINT SIX ZERO ZERO. Your previous argument that Arcia should be the one called instead up was reasonable and debatable (although I disagree for the reasons I pointed out). But the idea that Kepler wouldn't hit better than Hicks against RHP is really hard to buy.  You would have to assume he loses .330-.350 in OPS against righties. Impossible? No, but I'll take that bet for sure.

Is Hicks still hitting at a .600 clip against RHP, though? I haven't dug into the stats to check if his hitting against RHP has continued on an upswing since the recall.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Dunno, maybe an alternate universe version of Milton Bradley where his head isn't jammed up his ass.

 

Thinking LF'ers, that are left-handed, with similar batting profile, and with similar build and physical profiles; I am optimistically thinking Zobrist and Yelich? That is the best current profiles I can come up with that match the above and had similar AA stats.

 

I would include maybe a David Peralta, but his path was clearly different. These are my realistic high-end comparisons, especially with how Target Field represses LH power.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thinking LF'ers, that are left-handed, with similar batting profile, and with similar build and physical profiles; I am optimistically thinking Zobrist and Yelich? That is the best current profiles I can come up with that match the above and had similar AA stats.

 

I would include maybe a David Peralta, but his path was clearly different. These are my realistic high-end comparisons, especially with how Target Field represses LH power.

Zobrist is a good comp, though he's probably better than Kepler will ever become.

 

Kepler is a weird player.

 

Left-handed

Good corner defense, fringy CF defense

Moderate power

BB/K parity

No discernible L/R splits

 

That's a weird player that's going to be hard to comp (particularly the left-handed with minimal L/R split).

[nytwinsfan]

 

Is Hicks still hitting at a .600 clip against RHP, though? I haven't dug into the stats to check if his hitting against RHP has continued on an upswing since the recall.

.227/.289/.313 (.601) against RHP. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5297&position=OF&season=2015

 

These stats are the basis on which I wrote the original post. Interestingly, Hicks has a worse K rate against LHP. He just has a much better BABIP and ISO against LHP.  But I don't think that is a fluke/SSS. He has done this his entire career, although not always as drastically.

[Brock Beauchamp]

.227/.289/.313 (.601) against RHP. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5297&position=OF&season=2015

 

These stats are the basis on which I wrote the original post. Interestingly, Hicks has a worse K rate against LHP. He just has a much better BABIP and ISO against LHP. But I don't think that is a fluke/SSS. He has done this his entire career, although not always as drastically.

That's my point, though. The Aaron Hicks who received 90 PAs in May/June is not the Aaron Hicks we're watching today. Given that horrible stretch constitutes ~45% of his 2015 PAs, I'm skeptical of that .600 number.

[Teflon]

 

Oswaldo.

 

Arcia.

 

...misplays the carom off the outfield wall and another run scores.

 

...ignores the cutofff and throws home too late to get the runner, the batter advancing to second base.

 

...get's a late break on the ball and and watches it fall in for a base hit.

 

...swings wildly at a pitch at the letters to end the inning, stranding the runner at second.

 

...connects, lifting one deep to the outfield as he flips his bat, taps his chest and points to the sky. It's carrying to the wall - and is off the wall. He'll have to hustle if he wants to make it into second base...

 

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/oswaldo-arcia-hit-in-face-catching-fail.gif

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

...misplays the carom off the outfield wall and another run scores.

 

...ignores the cutofff and throws home too late to get the runner, the batter advancing to second base.

 

...get's a late break on the ball and and watches it fall in for a base hit.

 

...swings wildly at a pitch at the letters to end the inning, stranding the runner at second.

 

...connects, lifting one deep to the outfield as he flips his bat, taps his chest and points to the sky. It's carrying to the wall - and is off the wall. He'll have to hustle if he wants to make it into second base...

Yeah, he's a bad defender.

 

So is Torii Hunter.

 

But only one of them can hit RHP at an above average clip.

 

note: RHP constitutes roughly 70% of all MLB pitching

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Zobrist is a good comp, though he's probably better than Kepler will ever become.

 

Kepler is a weird player.

 

Left-handed

Good corner defense, fringy CF defense

Moderate power

BB/K parity

No discernible L/R splits

 

That's a weird player that's going to be hard to comp (particularly the left-handed with minimal L/R split).

That is why I brought it up. I really think we need to look at the closest comps to prospects in the most amount of areas that we can in order to get a better gauge of how excited we should be. 

 

I also am not certain his LH/RH splits are necessarily gong to stick as he goes up. LH pitchers get a lot of chances in the minors, but the ones in AA aren't always guys with great stuff. There are a lot of MLB LH starters that are just filthy these days, especially relievers. MLB splits will probably look different.

 

Zobrist seemed like the closest comp to me, and Yelich has better defense. Heyward or Gordon would be like his 95%ile, but not likely.

 

Not the same size, but Rosario with a better BB% maybe. 

 

The problem is, is that with the likelihood of his power not translating to Target Field, he would need to provide elite corner OF defense (not likely there yet), provide a good avg/obp...but likely he would have to rely on a ridiculous BAIP in order to do that like Rosario now and Santana last year, or like he is doing in AA.

 

Guys like Santana, Rosario, and Kepler can be assets as long as their defense is great, and hitting over their heads. I am not sure Kepler can do that over a sustained period. Maybe, but not sure. I doubt Rosario can keep this up either. Underlying numbers usually tell the truth over time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks' OPS vs RHP now up to .626.

 

When a guy is making huge improvements as Hicks has in the past month, you do not platoon him.

[Shane Wahl]

Arcia and Kepler both up. Please. Polanco too. Give these playoffs one more try. Berrios, obviously.