Instant Reaction Poll: Rate the Hu for Jepsen Traded

[DaveW]

From Parker:

 

In the last 2 years, Kevin jepsen's .176 BA vs RHB is 9th lowest among RH relievers.

 

RH in Twins pen currently have worst BA vs RHB (.295).

So he is a ROOGY? Certainly doesn't help us in the 8th inning role.

[JustinCB]

 

A rotation needs 5 guys and a bullpen needs 6-7. There is zero reason to just trade Hu and Tapia, both who strike out almost 9 per 9.

Ryan should be ran out of town for this crap and his lack of other action to fix the pen.

He should be ran out of town for trading a fringy prospect and a non-prospect for a halfway decent bullpen piece?  Ok.

[Twinfan603]

I've been lurking on Twinsdaily for almost 2 years now, and I just signed up today to vote on this poll (I suppose there was no reason to sign up or vote on polls when they were terrible).

 

Quite frankly, what most of the people here have been saying is absolutely true: This was a bad move. I would say it reeked of desperation, but when you go out and get a league-average reliever, your desperation levels are either out of whack or your perception of how to manage things is.

 

Wu might be years off and he might not impress the majority of scouts despite his stellar numbers, but I don't think anyone can argue that giving up the #20 prospect in one of baseball's best farm systems (and his #20 ranking is so low because the guys in the big leagues like Sano & Buxton are still listed) plus another power arm in an organization bereft of them to get someone who will be in all likelihood only a somewhat noticeable improvement over the calvalry of bums we normally trot out of the pen is a god damn travesty.

 

I've always understood Ryan's conservatism and kind of shook my head in a 1950's black&white tv show sort of way, but now, in 2015, when the team is exceeding expectations and is on the road to long-term success, you absolutely cannot make such a stupid deal. This has gone beyond the precedent of conservatism--it's now a precedent of ineptitude.

 

Get a new GM asap.

[DaveW]

He should be ran out of town for trading a fringy prospect and a non-prospect for a halfway decent bullpen piece? Ok.

he should be run out of town for not fixing the pen earlier, and once again refusing to bring in any player who will substainally improve the team.

[bulldogguy]

 

Ah yes the old "a lot of prospects fail" argument. A+ execution.

Thanks...I use that since there is actually truth and merit to it.  

[whydidnt]

 

That is the price of a relief pitcher. Clippard, Papelbon, Lowe were all acquired for a SP prospect with some upside. And one could arguably make the case that Hu is the worst prospect to change hands in a RP trade this deadline. 

But, Clippard Papelbon and Lowe are all arguably better than Jepson - and in the case of Clippard the A's got a comparable player to Wu, not 2 players and ALSO included cash in the deal. Papelbon brought back a worse prospect - he wasn't a candidate for the Twins though, unless you wanted to see Perkins in the setup role, due to his no-trade clause. For Lowe, the Mariners got 3 guys, the best of which has a 4.78 ERA in rookie ball right now.Again, I like the Rays take better than of these deals. Then let's not forget about Cishek who really isn't much worse than Jepson, for a AA SP that nobody considers to be a great prospect and has bad control.

 

It wasn't a good deal for the Twins, based upon the current market for RPs. It's also not the end of the world. Just seems we might have been able to do better if we would have been willing to act quicker rather than waiting until a couple of hours before the deadline.

 

 

[Primetime82]

I'm hearing Caleb Thielbar will be designated for assignment to make room for Kevin Jepsen on 40-man roster.

[drjim]

 

And one could easily make the case that Jepsen by far is the worst RP traded this deadline.

 

Makes sense the worst prospect would go for the worst reliever, right?

 

Are people really that mad at this trade specifically, mad because it was the only trade made, or just mad?

 

I understand how the second part can bleed into the first, but man people are flipping out about these prospects.

[whydidnt]

In my previous post about RP trades, the Pirates landed Soria from the Tigers for a MI prospect that is probably going to end up in the OF and isn't a great hitting prospect at this point. Would rather have had Soria than Jepsen too. Perhaps the Tigers didn't want to trade in their own division though?

[jokin]

 

When reports yesterday said the Twins were looking for controllable relief pitchers, I thought that meant a young guy like Jske McGee or Carter Capps. I just didn't think they'd get a 30+ year old journeyman with declining velocity. Why?!

Ryan's love of vets only makes me resent them so much more.

 

This.

 

I've been banging the drum on chatting up the Marlins since before the ASG.  They proved they could be had in the latest dea; with LA and Atlanta.  They have a history of making wholesale changes casting off their best talent and just blowing things up completely.  I am curious to find out if Ryan even made one phone call inquiry to Miami.  

[BeenHazy]

Hu's great start to the year really put him on the radar of a lot of people, but he's just been a very good A-ball pitcher since that... Emphasis on A-ball.

 

if this deal had gone down this past offseason, the reaction wouldn't have been as negative. none of the players in the deal have changed much fundamentally since then.

 

a better return might have been possible, but this is still a deal that could work out well for the twins.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Looks like Jepsen has better career numbers in post all-star break than pre-break.  Brooks Baseball shows that over the past couple seasons his velocity has increased throughout the season.  So this might work out ok.

[jokin]

 

That is the price of a relief pitcher. Clippard, Papelbon, Lowe were all acquired for a SP prospect with some upside. And one could arguably make the case that Hu is the worst prospect to change hands in a RP trade this deadline. 

 

Yes, when I think of the top 4 available RPs before the deadline,Clippard, Papelbon, Lowe and Aroldis Jepman....  oh wait, I guess that's not what you meant.

[ALessKosherScott]

I liked Hu, but pitchers with decent command and three average offerings tend to be rotation or bullpen fodder if they make it. Tapia is the better lottery ticket, because his velocity could tick up, But he's still a lottery ticket.

 

Granted, Jepsen doesn't fix much. He's just a slightly better option than what we have.

[drjim]

Here is another thought I had - if Terry Ryan is clearly willing to get taken to the cleaners - why didn't more teams take advantage of him?

[Mike Sixel]

for some of us, it isn't that the deal is a ripoff......it's that it could have been done earlier (since it isn't an elite, in demand guy), and that it isn't really a difference maker. It's another in long line of non-move moves. I could be wrong, maybe he'll dominate.....but does anyone think this moves the dial on the Twins' odds for this year?

 

Do we really think he's worth $5MM next year, or that they could find a RP for $5MM next year just as good, and not have given up lottery tickets?

 

If he had maybe not relied on this bullpen in the first place, and succeeded at having more than 1 good RP.......

[drjim]

What do you mean by "rely on this bullpen". I don't think it is anything like he planned on.

 

He had six guys - Pressly, Tonkin, Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Jones - that had a legit shot to contribute at this point and haven't. Variety of reasons, but here we are.

 

His one signing flamed out, got some short term success out of unexpected sources.

 

Probably should have acquired 2-3 bullpen arms, so that is on him.

 

But I think saying he went into the season planning on relying on this specific bullpen is not accurate.

[Kwak]

 

An upgrade for now. Hu had possibilities but really, would rather lose him that any numebr of other guys above him? His value may be the highest it will ever be. Yes, we want a guy who strikes people out and WON'T walk someone mroe often than not. For the moment, a decent trade, except who is sent to the minors of released? We need to make 40-man roster space!

I'm very confident that someone appropriate can be found to DFA.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What do you mean by "rely on this bullpen". I don't think it is anything like he planned on.

 

He had six guys - Pressly, Tonkin, Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Jones - that had a legit shot to contribute at this point and haven't. Variety of reasons, but here we are.

 

His one signing flamed out, got some short term success out of unexpected sources.

 

Probably should have acquired 2-3 bullpen arms, so that is on him.

 

But I think saying he went into the season planning on relying on this specific bullpen is not accurate.

 

If that was his plan, it didn't work out at all. But, there is very little indication this FO believes in young pitchers in the bullpen. Heck, May is rotting away, as is Graham, despite both being successful/good. If he thought those guys were going to be good this year, and they aren't........isn't that a failure of his plan and assessment of those guys?

[drjim]

 

If that was his plan, it didn't work out at all. But, there is very little indication this FO believes in young pitchers in the bullpen. Heck, May is rotting away, as is Graham, despite both being successful/good. If he thought those guys were going to be good this year, and they aren't........isn't that a failure of his plan and assessment of those guys?

 

Absolutely a failure of plan. Which is why he had to trade for a reliever (and should have been 2-3).

 

And May is now the 8th inning guy. Or at least will split the higher leverage innings with Jepsen.

[Mike Sixel]

May hasn't been used in a high leverage situation at all. did someone say that was changing? Because, he's not being used that way at all.

[USAFChief]

 

What do you mean by "rely on this bullpen". I don't think it is anything like he planned on.

 

He had six guys - Pressly, Tonkin, Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Jones - that had a legit shot to contribute at this point and haven't. Variety of reasons, but here we are.

 

His one signing flamed out, got some short term success out of unexpected sources.

 

Probably should have acquired 2-3 bullpen arms, so that is on him.

 

But I think saying he went into the season planning on relying on this specific bullpen is not accurate.

If he was planning on any of those six being a reliable part of a dominant bullpen in 2015, that in and of itself is a huge blunder, IMO.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

for some of us, it isn't that the deal is a ripoff......it's that it could have been done earlier (since it isn't an elite, in demand guy), and that it isn't really a difference maker. It's another in long line of non-move moves. I could be wrong, maybe he'll dominate.....but does anyone think this moves the dial on the Twins' odds for this year?

 

Do we really think he's worth $5MM next year, or that they could find a RP for $5MM next year just as good, and not have given up lottery tickets?

 

If he had maybe not relied on this bullpen in the first place, and succeeded at having more than 1 good RP.......

 

Could it have been done earlier? Perhaps. But none of us are privy to the full story. Maybe they had their eye on someone else and they lost out so Jepsen was plan B or C. 

 

Does it move the needle? Probably not. But nothing short of giving up a small fortune for Price was really going to move the needle. This team is pretty average across the board, but they have enough games against some really bad teams where holding on to the wild card is feasible. 

 

Will Jepsen be worth $5 million next year? The Magic 8 Ball says ask again later. But its not like Hu and Tapia were A or B prospects and the Twins had better internal options for right now.

[LaBombo]

 

People are going a little nuts over Hu. He's an interesting arm but he's a long way from elite and the list of pitchers who project higher than him are:

 

Berrios

Gonsalves

Thorpe

Jay

Stewart (this one is a bit iffy but I'll still take Kohl)

 

Too much for Jepsen but it's not like the Twins traded the next Koufax.

 

If you allow that Hu's value approximates that of Stewart's, and assign a value of zero to Tapia, then the Twins used the 4th overall pick of the 2013 amateur draft to select a pitcher whose value two years later is equal to that of a 31 year old replacement-level (2015 WAR 0.0) right-handed reliever.

 

So solely by that equation, either the Twins kind of suck at trading, or kind of suck at drafting.

[jokin]

 

Could it have been done earlier? Perhaps. But none of us are privy to the full story. Maybe they had their eye on someone else and they lost out so Jepsen was plan B or C. 

 

Does it move the needle? Probably not. But nothing short of giving up a small fortune for Price was really going to move the needle. This team is pretty average across the board, but they have enough games against some really bad teams where holding on to the wild card is feasible. 

 

Will Jepsen be worth $5 million next year? The Magic 8 Ball says ask again later. But its not like Hu and Tapia were A or B prospects and the Twins had better internal options for right now.

 

Toronto has 6 ex-Twins, and their farm system isn't ranked nearly as high as the Twins, and yet, they found a way to significantly improve their team with multiple deals, in both the previous offseason and this month's blockbuster deals, they could easily pass the Twins for the last wild card spot next week during hteir 4-game series..

 

IMO, you're going to have to make a better case for feasibility than the Twins weak shcedule- in order to sketch out how the Twns can possibly stay in playoff contention.

[jokin]

 

If you allow that Hu's value approximates that of Stewart's, and assign a value of zero to Tapia, then the Twins used the 4th overall pick of the 2013 amateur draft to select a pitcher whose value two years later is equal to that of a 31 year old replacement-level (2015 WAR 0.0) right-handed reliever.

 

So solely by that equation, either the Twins kind of suck at trading, or kind of suck at drafting.

 

+1. Ouch, that one left a big fat mark.

[Mike Sixel]

In fairness, only Toronto with their low Canadian tax rates and awesome exchange rate could afford to sign the best catcher this off season......And only Toronto could acquire a top 3 guy at his position for multiple years of team control in back to back years (3B and SS). I mean, only they could have done that. Really. That other stuff they did? No way the Twins had the assets to do that.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Toronto has 6 ex-Twins, and their farm system isn't ranked nearly as high as the Twins, and yet, they found a way to significantly improve their team with multiple deals, in both the previous offseason and this month's blockbuster deals, they could easily pass the Twins for the last wild card spot next week during hteir 4-game series..

 

IMO, you're going to have to make a better case for feasibility than the Twins weak shcedule- in order to sketch out how the Twns can possibly stay in playoff contention.

 

Sorry then, 25 games against the AL Central dreck, including 13 against the Indians, plus series with Tampa, Texas and Seattle is all the hope I can give you.

[jokin]

 

 

 

And May is now the 8th inning guy. Or at least will split the higher leverage innings with Jepsen.

 

 

Jepsen is the 8th inning guy until further notice. Molitor has done his utmost to avoid putting May into many high leverage situations, in his 8 relief appearances, only 2 qualified as high leverage, 0 as medium leverage.

[JustinCB]

 

he should be run out of town for not fixing the pen earlier, and once again refusing to bring in any player who will substainally improve the team.

 

 

agree with that part.