Keith Law - Twins missing from Top 7 farm systems

[GACbaseball]

Even with the promotions of Sano and Buxton, we still have a ton of depth and and guys that project to be better than average. With Berrios, Kepler, Gordon, Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, ABW, Hu, etc., you'd think we'd be able to crack the top 7. I guess he doesn't think very highly of those guys or doesn't see a "star" among them.

His top 7:

1. Red Sox
2. Braves
3. Rangers
4. Mets
5. Nationals
6. Pirates
7. Rockes

(Insider article) http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4112

I personally think Red Sox prospects are perpetually overrated and I would have to put the Twins somewhere on that list

 

Thoughts? What would your top 7 be?

[nytwinsfan]

I'm not that surprised. Without Buxton and Sano the Twins are a good (top half) but not great farm system.

[Mike Sixel]

There are pretty much no sure fire stars left....but those other teams do have those. He has Berrios in his top 25......so I don't think it's about Berrios.

[Badsmerf]

I wouldn't worry about it too much. Buxton and Sano carried a lot of the weight of previous top rankings and they are graduating. The young pitchers could make some noise in the year (Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe). Guys like Kepler, Polanco, ABW, Gordon are on the national radar. 

 

The system is good. Remember, Delmon Young was once the top prospect.... these rankings only go so far.

[JustinCB]

Law has never seemed like much of a Twins fan.  I feel like they get discounted to some extent by the smart baseball types because they aren't sabermetrically inclined, but maybe I'm reading into it too much.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Law has never seemed like much of a Twins fan.  I feel like they get discounted to some extent by the smart baseball types because they aren't sabermetrically inclined, but maybe I'm reading into it too much.

 

He ranked Buxton number 1. He moved Berrios to the top 25. He loves Sano. What evidence do you have of this bias?

[Otto von Ballpark]

BA's midseason top 50 came out recently, and Berrios is the only Twin at #19.  (Note that this doesn't include June draftees or July 2nd signings yet.)

 

The Red Sox have 5 in this top 50 (2 ahead of Berrios)

Braves have 2

Rangers have 3 (1 ahead of Berrios)

Mets have 2 (1 ahead of Berrios)

Nationals have 3 (2 ahead of Berrios)

Pirates have 2 (1 ahead of Berrios)

Rockies have 2

 

And that still leaves out the Dodgers with 4 (including 2 of the top 4!) and the Phillies and Yankees (each with 2 ahead of Berrios).

[Lazarus]

Not a surprise and probably correct. With the number of promotions of top talent, they had to drop. Notice that the Cubs and Astros have dropped out of the top 7 as well.

 

Beyond Berrios, it's hard to pinpoint a "can't miss" pitcher in the upper minors and the "ready now or very soon" position players have either now been promoted or sent back to fix their exposed flaws. There are a couple of guys in the upper minors who will be up by the end of next year and contribute, and many who will get a taste but not grab the opportunity by the throat. Hopefully we can trade a couple of question marks for some immediate help.

[JustinCB]

 

He ranked Buxton number 1. He moved Berrios to the top 25. He loves Sano. What evidence do you have of this bias?

Twins Daily's own Nick Nelson has been bringing it up since at least 2009 (see comment one and his response http://twinsfanatnicks.blogspot.com/2009/03/position-analysis-left-field.html)  

 

I'm not pulling this out of thin air.  He's been called out on it before.  See first comment on this chat he did a couple years ago.

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/21395/21395

[Mike Sixel]

Huh? that first comment is called sarcasm....and it talks about how he's been accused of it.

 

He gets accused every day of hating teams. It just isn't true.

[Thrylos]

 

Law has never seemed like much of a Twins fan.

 

I think that, if anything, Law is guilty of overvaluing some Twins' prospects like Buxton and Gordon and maybe even Berrios.

[JustinCB]

 

I think that, if anything, Law is guilty of overvaluing some Twins' prospects like Buxton and Gordon and maybe even Berrios.

Spirit of Vodka Dave agrees with me!

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/3711-keith-law/?p=61749

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/11778-keith-law-mideseason-top-5-farm-systems/?p=257755

[Captain Hindsight]

I am not terribly surprised, without Sano and Buxton its a solid farm system with a number of intriguing players with breakout potential and good depth/mix of players but not spectacular. I'd say probably a 5-15 farm system depending on how optimistic you are about some players. Meyers struggles to start the season did not help. May is also no longer part of the equation either.

 

The Sox system being the top rated is a bit puzzling. Without Rodriguez it doesn't seem all that great of a farm, I'd say about the same as the Twins if not worse. Nobody really dominating, Moncada is having an okay season in lowA, Owens season has been up and down but has gotten better, still he probably more of a mid-rotation arm,  Devers is doing well but not great in lowA, walks are concerning, Margot is not doing well as he adjusts to AA. Beyond that it contains a lot of players you can find in almost any system, tend to agree a bit over-hyped.

[kab21]

The strength of the Twins system is depth right now and that usually doesn't rank well.  To stay in the top farm system rankings the Twins needed Stewart and Gordon to be meeting expectations of a top 5 pick and so far they have moderately disappointed.  They are still good prospects but the Twins system is now loaded with guys that are making an argument to be in the top 100 instead of several guys that are locks for everyone's top 50.  Without looking at the farm systems I expected the Twins to be in the 10-15 range this offseason so this isn't a surprise.

[drjim]

 

The strength of the Twins system is depth right now and that usually doesn't rank well.  To stay in the top farm system rankings the Twins needed Stewart and Gordon to be meeting expectations of a top 5 pick and so far they have moderately disappointed.  They are still good prospects but the Twins system is now loaded with guys that are making an argument to be in the top 100 instead of several guys that are locks for everyone's top 50.  Without looking at the farm systems I expected the Twins to be in the 10-15 range this offseason so this isn't a surprise.

 

I agree with 10-15, but might be slightly higher if Buxton is still eligible - which he likely will be.

[Badsmerf]

If Buxton is eligible it changes to a top 10 system. Losing sano drops the twins a few places.

 

Like said above, Stewart and Gordon are not having spectacular seasons. Not terrible, but not enough to be considered top 50 prospects.... Maybe even not top 100.

 

It really doesn't matter though. Behind Buxton and sano the twins have solid pitching and talent all over the field coming up. They will be good

[kab21]

In the big picture the rank of a farm system really doesn't matter but it is fun to talk about.  If you check out those rankings you will notice two other teams missing.  The Astros and Cubs.  Just like the Twins they have graduated several high profile guys (more than the Twins) to the majors recently.  Optimistically the Twins move back up the rankings as the interesting but not top prospects (yet) progress from rk/A ball up to the higher minors.  That (after Berrios) is where the Twins strength is right now.  It is a deep system with a lot of guys that could move up a lot in the rankings in the next year or two.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins are in a lull period. They graduated 7-8 top 100 prospects in a 30 month period. That's... A lot.

 

It'll be some time before the likes of Gordon, Gonsalves, Thorpe, etc gain enough traction to make the farm look good again. The org probably won't return to elite status but it will improve, I think.