3 Up...3 Down...What's left to do?

[DocBauer]

OK...3 Up...3 Down...as in months gone by and how many are left in the season. What's left to do for the Twins in their 2015 season? Now it's true that it's July 3rd as I write, and after tonight's game...(Twins & Royals tied at 1 at the moment).,.there is still another game left until the actual 81 game midpoint of the season. But don't bother me with details! For all intents and purposes, we are at the midpoint of the 2015 season.

 

Again, game 80 as I write, the Twins are in a 3 way tie for the 3rd best record in the AL! They are, at this moment, 42 & 37 with a .532 W%. The Twins...MY Twins...OUR Twins...were supposed to lose again this season. Coming off a 4th straight poor season of 90 or more loses, the Twins were supposed to lose again this season. Preseason debate amongst us here at TD was whether or not our favorite team could reach, and possibly crack, the .500 mark. Well, in this season of some fairly significant FA signings, this season of a new manager in HOF local boy dun gooooood Paul Molitor, this season of a mostly new coaching staff including a spankin' sparklin' new pitching coach, this season of a bunch of new kids getting at least tastes and opportunities at the ML level, this season of new uni's trimming in Klondike gold...(see what I dd there?)...this team has been not only competitive but actually winning. I was an Engish major, not a math one, but my penned calculations indicate the Twins would have to play .470 ball the remainder of the season to finish at .500. Meaning their winning % would have to drop 50 points for this to happen. I'm no statistics guy, but I believe that's a pretty significant drop. Further, they would have to play at a .361 pace the remainder of the year to finish with 90 losses for a 5th straight year.

 

In other words....we ain't losing 90 again guys. Statistics and odds would indicate we should finish at .500 or better. P*ss, moan and complain if you will, and I have at times as well, about what the Twin's record could be with a little better bullpen, a little more power, and a few more clutch hits...4-10 more wins???...but I don't know about you...BUT I AM HAVING FUN! (Even the Twins minor leagues are winning, producing talent and hope, and giving us fun and things to talk about).

 

I am not really a doctor, or a baseball scout, and to my immediate recollection, I don't believe I have ever spent a single night in a Holiday Inn Express. But as a (semi) intelligent man of 49 who has been following baseball, specifically the Twins, most of my life, possessing a pretty level head, common sense, and possessing at least a cup of strong coffee/stiff drink wisdom, I think I'm on target where our beloved Twins are at this point. Please feel free to agree with me, or dispute me, as you will.

 

#1 thing left for the Twins to: Win

 

Keep winning. Just keep playing good baseball, and keep doing what they are doing. Winning is important; not only for the turnstiles and us fans, but for the players and coaches who want to win, need to win, and deserve to win. And I believe that winning/success, breeds winning/success.

 

But don't get carried away with winning!

 

What? You heard me. I believe in "going for it" when you have a chance. But this fun, beautiful, improved and "year early" contending team just isn't built for a real championship season. Not yet. IMHO. This team should remain trade neutral the rest of the season. Unless you make a series of moves, probably rental ones, you just aren't going to make enough of a difference. And then what? You jumped the gun, took a shot, played rental vets, traded young talent to acquire them, and end up empty of a trophy and have lost possible player and additional trade assets.

 

While it would be nice to pull off a sneaky move, nobody is going to offer the Twins much for Pelfrey. There is a real chance that a new splitter, new mental toughness/determination Pelfrey has spoken of, and strong health has transformed him. But a so-so career followed by 3 full seasons of injury mixed with a dab or OK and poor success is NOT going to bring a big return. Nolasco has real ability and a nice track record. But he has been snakebit since joining the Twins...and I hate to use that term as it's about the only thing that hasn't happened to Nolasco since he inked his contract..and NOBODY is going to trade for him right now. Milone is an interesting enigma. Not an insult, just a fact. We got him for waiver wire acquired and later traded Sam Fuld. So what top reliever or catching prospect are we acquiring for him via trade?

 

Exception: Should there be anything on the table from a contending club interested in any of the above, OR, a rebuilding club, that would allow the Twins to bring on board a young(-ish) RP who throws hard and can help for multiple seasons, or a young(-ish) quality catcher that can help for multiple seasons, for any of the above or a package of milb prospects NOT in the top 10-15+ ish, then you go ahead and probably make a move. If the Twins farm system is even close to being as good as advertised, there are prospects to trade now, (or in the offseason) that can be of real value to someone else without cutting our own legs out from beneath us.

 

#2 thing left for the Twins to do: Play the kids every day, (or close to it)

 

Sounds simple doesn't it? It's not as simple as it sounds. Remember #1 thing left to do? You just can't play 12 inning games with 12 man lineups and 40 man rosters tomorrow just because it would be convenient for young player development. (Plus, the whole winning thing) But what you CAN do, SHOULD do, and absolutely MUST do at this point is get every single young top prospect playing as high and hard and fast as you can for the next 3 months.

 

Escobar is nothing special. But he's potentially very, very solid. Debatable if he's really as good as he showed last season and during ST this year, but I know he's better than he has been this year. He's been playing better lately with extended playing time. He needs to keep playing. Santana has even more talent and projectability. Whether it be SS, CF, (or LF as I've mentioned before), he needs to play EVERY SINGLE DAY, or damn close to it. And I mean ML level, or AAA level.

 

Polanco just might have even more offensive and defensive talent and projectability than Santana. He needs to be at AAA Rochester tomorrow. So does Kepler. Buxton needs to be back in the Majors ASAP....or as soon as deemed ready. Same with Hicks. I am NOT advocating some mass milb exodus to mass ML arrival. But you have 2 months to play all of these young players, (and we're not even discussing pitchers at the moment), at the AAA and ML level, or riding the Rochester shuttle back and forth, (which I don't normally advocate), as needed, before the rosters expand in September. But in all scenarios, YOU PLAY THE PROSPECTS as much as possible on a daily basis. You are building a team for 2016 and beyond, and you have not only reason, but opportunity built upon talent and real production to be aggressive and challenge these youngsters, (mixed in with veterans and younger vets).

 

In short; keep doing what you are doing this far...except....

 

1: keep winning, and trying to win, but don't get too caught up in '15 and make short-sighted moves that will not pay off in the end, and might even short you in player "cash" in the future to make moves.

 

2: get all of your top prospects and young players in the lineup every single day at the ML or AAA level for the remainder of the season for challenge and future development.

[twinsnorth49]

Bullpen, just fix the ****ing bullpen and let the rest take care of itself!

[Puckett34]

Fix the bullpen.  Hitting should come back around, right?

[twinsnorth49]

The hitting should normalize and show improvement. Unfortunately the pen has normalized and it's not a good thing.

[jimbo92107]

We've found out a lot by playing some of the kids this season. We found out that Buxton is at least a 60 on every standard tool, but a 30 on survival, and a 40 on baseball savvy. Danny Santana needs to work on carrying his bat longer through the zone. Vargas needs to get into a home run contest with AB Walker. Rosario stays, period. He looks like he's been a pro since he was six. Hicks is still improving by baby steps, which may go on for years, and yet I find myself enjoying it.

 

The team still doesn't have an heir apparent at catcher, tho Stewart Turner (Butera 2.0?) is a "leader" in AA, while Mitch Garver (good arm, .237) and Alex Swim (.312) are looking good in Ft. Myers high A.

 

Going forward, I'd like to see catcher Eric Fryer get the same kind of backup chance that Chris Herrmann has gotten in the first 3 months. Better defense, I hear, and Fryer is hitting .299 in Rochester. I'd also like to see Jorge Polanco get at least a month shot at short. I'm not overly impressed by the rap that he lacks arm strength. I saw him last fall, and he looked fine at SS, and his all around game looked more opportunistic than Santana's. Better bat, at least for now, and a more skillful base runner. Santana needs to loosen up and play with more joy. Maybe start singing karaoke.

 

Otherwise, I'd like to see Max Kepler in AAA right now, and get him ready for the next stint of injuries to Hicks or Buxton. Der Kid is starting to look like he's almost ready for the show.

 

Man oh man, where are the Twins going to put all these young starting pitchers over the next couple years!

 

Wow, I actually forgot Miguel Sano. He stays, just like Rosario. This kid isn't an amateur, he's a professional baseball player. Always has been.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Man oh man, where are the Twins going to put all these young starting pitchers over the next couple years!

Besides Berrios, who are you wondering about?  Pelfrey will be gone, Milone may be as well.  We'll have room for Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Berrios.

[Twins33]

 

Besides Berrios, who are you wondering about?  Pelfrey will be gone, Milone may be as well.  We'll have room for Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Berrios.

And Nolasco goes where? BP? I'm for him being gone completely, but right now I can't see any team taking him.

[jimmer]

 

And Nolasco goes where? BP? I'm for him being gone completely, but right now I can't see any team taking him.

Good question.  

[Ben Noble]

 

Besides Berrios, who are you wondering about?  Pelfrey will be gone, Milone may be as well.  We'll have room for Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Berrios.

 

Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, Hu off the top of my head. All still a couple years away at least and a majority likely won't pan out, but I'm optimistic that we'll be having the same conversation a couple years from now about who to jettison to find room for young pitchers knocking on the door in the minors.

[jimmer]

 

Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, Hu off the top of my head. All still a couple years away at least and a majority likely won't pan out, but I'm optimistic that we'll be having the same conversation a couple years from now about who to jettison to find room for young pitchers knocking on the door in the minors.

By the time those guys are ready, other guys will be done with their contracts, traded, won't have worked out, etc.  These things have a way of working themselves out.  I'll be happy when he have even four guys in our rotation that I have faith in being more than one fluky good year in the rotation (see Hughes?).

 

Last time this team was talking about having 6 quality SPs for 5 spots was the offseason before the 2011 season.

[USAFChief]

Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, Hu off the top of my head. All still a couple years away at least and a majority likely won't pan out, but I'm optimistic that we'll be having the same conversation a couple years from now about who to jettison to find room for young pitchers knocking on the door in the minors.

I sure hope so.

[ashbury]

In short

I'm gonna need a little time to let that sink in.

[Twins33]

 

Good question.  

Which I wish we knew the answer to. I'm completely for your rotation listed, I posted something similar in another thread a few days ago. It's just the Nolasco part that may keep it from happening, which it shouldn't but the Twins often play guys based on contract.

 

I'd assume he won't be able to be traded this year, that foot issue seems like it's not going to fix without surgery. What will be left on his contract is 2/24 plus an option year. Hopefully that will make him easier to trade. I'd take anything in return for him.

[DocBauer]

I get May to the pen, at least temporarily as Molitor stated. I don't like it, but I get it. But temporary is the key. The pen is having problems, there is a temporary logjam in the rotation, so for a brief NOW you put the hard throwing, young SO pitcher in the pen.

 

But this team is winning with May in the rotation. May is pitching, arguably, as well as or better than Pelfrey. May will be back next season, appears to have a bright future, and should be a part of the team for some time. Pelfrey is an older FA who will doubtfully be back next year. I have to ask, is this move really temporary in nature? Are we acquiescing to Pelfrey merely because he's a veteran?

 

We promote Buxton. We promote Sano. We promote Polanco to AAA. We promote Berrios to AAA. Surely Kepler is next for Rochester. But we demote May for doing well?

[drjim]

Listening to the Molitor show, he emphasized that this provides a break for May in regards to innings. I really think there is some merit in that. And he will replace Pelfrey/Milone quick if they (continue to) stumble.

[jimmer]

May was on pace for 160 innings.  Is that too many?  He had 144 last year.

[drjim]

 

May was on pace for 160 innings.  Is that too many?  He had 144 last year.

 

Are you factoring in the multiple playoff starts?

[Linus]

How do we work Arcia into this juggernaut?

[DocBauer]

How do we work Arcia into this juggernaut?

Keeping with the theme of what the Twins need to do the rest of the way, Arcia needs to be back up once he shows a return to some consistency. It might be early, but lately, it's looking as though he may have found himself.

 

I don't want to poo-poo what Richardson has done this season for us..which isn't a lot, but much more than I ever expected...but replacing him with Arcia is not only keeping with the "what needs to be done" theme, but also basic logic when examine the roster. He really doesn't fill a need for this team any longer with Hicks back, and Buxton eventually.

[DocBauer]

Glad to see Polanco up and playing every day at Rochester. He's also hitting this far. NOT concerned about a handful of early promotion errors. He's already on the roster, so he should be up in September. In the meantime, Santana and Escobar need to be playing somewhere every single day; 2B, SS or the OF.

 

What I'm not understanding is why Kepler isn't up at Rochester yet. I understand this is his best season, his first real "breakout" year. I understand he's still quite young. But really, with a little over half the AA season in the books, is there anything left to really dominate at this level? I think he's ready for AAA.