BP chat on prospects

[gunnarthor]

Several Twins questions came up today and most of the answers were good.  Seems like prospect guys are a lot higher on Nick Gordon than the stat line would suggest.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1266
 

Anthony (Minnesota): Between Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler, who do you think is the better prospect? And do either of them have staying power in the majors? Thanks!

Jeff Moore: Kepler is more refined but Walker is a lot more fun. He's one of my favorite prospects in the game, and not because I believe in him but because he treats every bat like it's home run derby. It won't work of course, but it's a lot of fun. He can find a niche as a platoon outfielder who just crushes lefties and runs into a number of home runs because the power is legit, but there are too many holes and absolutely no approach. Kepler is more well rounded and is beginning to hit like people expected. I'm still a little confused as to why the Twins have him at first base, though. He's not a great outfielder but unless something happened since I saw him last year that has completely evaporated his range, he's good enough to handle a corner. He could be a big leaguer.

 

Mike (AC): Worried about Buxton's slow start?

Jeff Moore: Nope, not at all. He probably shouldn't be in the majors yet, so the struggles are to be expected.

 

Chris (Phoenix): Is Buxton the next Eric Davis?

Jeff Moore: Yes, actually, though hopefully with a better end result. People don't remember how good Eric Davis was. He had a stretch from 86-88 where he averaged 30 home runs and 55 steals a season. Averaged! It's a better comp for Buxton than the Trout comps thrown around because of the body type. I'm big on that when it comes to comp. Trout's neck is thicker than Buxton's waist. It just doesn't work.

 

Mike (Minneapolis ): Thanks for the chat, Jeff!! What are your thoughts about a comp for Miguel Sano?? Also, when should we expect to see him in Minny?

Jeff Moore: Troy Glaus. He could be up by the end of this year, though he's still getting his timing back. A year away from the game is a long time, especially for a guy who already struck out a lot. If he hadn't missed a full year, he'd already be in the majors. The Twins are also getting some production from Trevor Plouffe so there's no desperation there, though they need another bat, especially a power one, so they could find a way to squeeze him in the lineup somehow.

 

Steve (Cedar Rapids): Mau put a OFP of 70 on Nick Gordon. That's pretty high praise. Is he that well-liked amongst the other BP Prospect writers?

Jeff Moore: Well Mau is a ridiculous human being. So is Nick Gordon though so that doesn't make it wrong. Let's look at it this way: as it looks now Gordon is showing the skills to be able to stick at shortstop. That puts him in a certain class right there, and it's one that's filled with a bunch of guys, most of whom can't really hit. Gordon shows a potential plus hit tool and some power, which puts him ahead of 90 percent of the guys who can stick at shortstop. Now, as Mau pointed out, there's a lot of development left. Gordon is far away, so he's a high risk prospect. But we assign OFP's without regard to risk. That's what makes it an OFP. Gordon is very good, he's just very far away and there's a lot of development ahead of him.

[nicksaviking]

The low minors are looking a little barren and it's gonig to get more barren once Hu gets his deserved promotion..  If Gordon and Gonsalves turn it on, it would go a long way to keeping this farm fresh.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm not sure I like or agree with the Eric Davis comp. I much prefer the Torii Hunter, but with speed comparison, and that still might be low.

 

Eric Davis hit for power but it appears he only hit 26 triples in his career. Buxton will have that many before he turns 25. The speed on the bases more than makes up for not reaching 30 homers a year.

[gunnarthor]

 

The low minors are looking a little barren and it's gonig to get more barren once Hu gets his deserved promotion..  If Gordon and Gonsalves turn it on, it would go a long way to keeping this farm fresh.

Yeah, obviously we have a few guys coming in or up that could improve the low minors - Minier, Diaz (IIRC), Cabbage (I really liked that pick) but certainly the major wave of prospects is at AA and above.  Which is perfectly fine.

 

[nytwinsfan]

I think his defense and projected ability to stay at SS, along with what the scouts think of his hit tool is driving this, but it is maybe worth noting that since June 1, Gordon is hitting .310/.385/.362 (.747). The plate discipline (.075 isolated discipline) is already really great. The power will come.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm not sure I like or agree with the Eric Davis comp. I much prefer the Torii Hunter, but with speed comparison, and that still might be low.

Eric Davis hit for power but it appears he only hit 26 triples in his career. Buxton will have that many before he turns 25. The speed on the bases more than makes up for not reaching 30 homers a year.

The Davis comp has been used a lot - Klaw has used it -, although Davis was a very bad defender. But offensively, it's a really good comparison.  A healthy Davis would have been a HOFer.

[Thegrin]

hmmmfff.  Adam Brett Walker looks like he was born to play for Toronto.  I bet he has a Jose Batista poster hanging on the wall.  He could be the next Dave Kingman/Adam Dunn,... or not...  

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think his defense and projected ability to stay at SS, along with what the scouts think of his hit tool is driving this, but it is maybe worth noting that since June 1, Gordon is hitting .310/.385/.362 (.747). The plate discipline (.075 isolated discipline) is already really great. The power will come.

 

Yeah, right now he is badly lacking in physical strength. That's definitely something, for a young player, that can and does improve with physical development & training. He's more of a project than I had realized, considering where he was drafted, but he's still a solid prospect.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not sure I like or agree with the Eric Davis comp. I much prefer the Torii Hunter, but with speed comparison, and that still might be low.

Eric Davis hit for power but it appears he only hit 26 triples in his career. Buxton will have that many before he turns 25. The speed on the bases more than makes up for not reaching 30 homers a year.

 

Looking at his career numbers may not be as impressive, but anyone who paid attention to baseball at the time probably remembers that the hype surrounding him and what he did in is first few full seasons was huge.

 

The speed comp is probably fair, Davis didn't have as many triples, but that's probably in part because more of his gap hits cleared the fence.  Buxton looks to be a better hitter though while Davis clearly had more power.  Davis really seemed to bulk up midway through his career.  I'm not sure Buxton will do the same.

[jimmer]

I've been saying for a few years now, since I first saw him play, that he reminds me of Eric Davis. Then I heard KLaw said the same thing, which cracked me up. I hope Buxton is a healthy version of Eric Davis. That guy, when healthy, was awesome!

[Steve Lein]

Baseball America's chat last week also had this mention from J.J. Cooper on an Adam Brett Walker question:

 

"Dave Martyn (Vernon BC): Hello JJ, how far away is Adam Brett Walker from Minny? Does his power transfer to the majors? How big of an issue are his K's?

J.J. Cooper: Love the power and yes, he can hit them out of any ball park, but he’s not ready and he’s not all that close. The strikeouts are a big issue. We’ve seen that the threshold of strikeout rate where a player can still be a productive big league player is higher than it used to be, but that involves strikeouts and walks. Right now Walker has gobs of strikeouts but he doesn’t walk. The power’s great, but I believe he needs a good bit of refinement before it’s playable big league power."

[HitInAPinch]

While I do think Baseball Prospective analysis of the Twins MiLB players is probably dead-on, comparing Buxton to Davis?  Um, no.  I'm thinking only by people who never saw Lyman Bostock play.

 

http://m.mlb.com/player/111256/lyman-bostock

[Mike Sixel]

Many, many people compare Buxton to Davis....