Impact of Defense

[Willihammer]

 

Personally, I don't want anything from UZR. I think what it tries to do with the limitations we have measuring defense is fine, IF (big if) it is used properly. Fangraphs states pretty clearly that using it over larger samples greatly increases it's usefulness, yet stating KC saved X runs over Cleveland in one season betrays their very recommendation. Ditto using WAR alone to say Trout > Cabrera for MVP.

I like looking at UZR and WAR as ranking tools over 3+ seasons, which is sort of what we're told they are for and best at. So why does the saber community so frequently not follow their own advice on defensive metrics?

Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought the distinction was between a 1 year sample for a single player, versus for an entire team (2000+ BIZs). That is a much larger sample than even 3 years for any single position player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Personally, I don't want anything from UZR. I think what it tries to do with the limitations we have measuring defense is fine, IF (big if) it is used properly. Fangraphs states pretty clearly that using it over larger samples greatly increases it's usefulness, yet stating KC saved X runs over Cleveland in one season betrays their very recommendation. Ditto using WAR alone to say Trout > Cabrera for MVP.

I like looking at UZR and WAR as ranking tools over 3+ seasons, which is sort of what we're told they are for and best at. So why does the saber community so frequently not follow their own advice on defensive metrics?

Fair enough. I guess the majority of my issues come from the metric's misuse.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought the distinction was between a 1 year sample for a single player, versus for an entire team (2000+ BIZs). That is a much larger sample than even 3 years for any single position player.

But... Not really. Yes and no. The problem with single season use of any kind is that it's taking a collection of data from each player, assigning that number as fixed (say, +20 runs) and then adding up the results for each position (assuming that one player plays the majority of innings at one position in a single season).

 

So you're really dealing with only seven data points (the seven defensive positions that matter). Most of the time, those will balance each other out but if you have two players who are extreme outliers, the entire team number is broken.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought the distinction was between a 1 year sample for a single player, versus for an entire team (2000+ BIZs). That is a much larger sample than even 3 years for any single position player.

Maybe I'm wrong too in how a team UZR is calculated vs. a players, maybe that sample is large enough.

[TheLeviathan]

Fair enough. I guess the majority of my issues come from the metric's misuse.

We agree there Brock, the misuse of them has been my biggest beef from the start of this. UZR is limited by what it is, but that's also why I hope new advancements will improve and eliminate some of those limitations.

[Willihammer]

 

But... Not really. Yes and no. The problem with single season use of any kind is that it's taking a collection of data from each player, assigning that number as fixed (say, +20 runs) and then adding up the results for each position (assuming that one player plays the majority of innings at one position in a single season).

 

So you're really dealing with only seven data points (the seven defensive positions that matter). Most of the time, those will balance each other out but if you have two players who are extreme outliers, the entire team number is broken.

Fair enough. Perhaps RZR is a better stat for 1 year team samples.

[USAFChief]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The link is already set to Inside Edge Fielding for RF.

That list defaults to the last category, the 90-100% list. In which case, Hunter's 97.6% is indeed last of 16, and would be a difference of something like 5 or 6 catches from Nick Markakis' 100%. Maybe 3 catches from being middle of the pack.

 

But if you click on the other categories, Hunter ranges from 5th to 9th. Average to above average everywhere else. He would have an extra catch or so and make up the difference.

 

In total, that seems to indicate to me, average.

[jimmer]

 

That list defaults to the last category, the 90-100% list. In which case, Hunter's 97.6% is indeed last of 16, and would be a difference of something like 5 or 6 catches from Nick Markakis' 100%. Maybe 3 catches from being middle of the pack.

But if you click on the other categories, Hunter ranges from 5th to 9th. Average to above average everywhere else. He would have an extra catch or so and make up the difference.

In total, that seems to indicate to me, average.

Did you notice how many more balls fell into the range where he ranked last? 208.  All the other categories combined: 40.  That's why it defaults to where it defaults to. Means he was the worse at creating outs where the average RF would, but did very rarely make a play some others wouldn't.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I thought this was a helpful and amusing little article on the subject that I came across.

Good article. Though a bit ironic, considering the UZR/saber-skeptics all concluded at the end of the article, that it was Delmon Young who passes the eye test. Delmon Young.

[USAFChief]

Did you notice how many more balls fell into the range where he ranked last? 208.  All the other categories combined: 40.  That's why it defaults to where it defaults to. Means he was the worse at creating outs where the average RF would, but did very rarely make a play some others wouldn't.

Right, and he was credited with making 97.6% of those 206 chances, or 201. That's 5 plays. Five outs, compared to the leader, Markakis, over the course of a season. Two or three fewer outs than the RFers in the middle of that category.

 

He was rated as average or above average on the other 40 combined, right? So we'll be conservative and give him one out back.

 

That leaves us we a delta of between 4 and 1 outs.

[jimmer]

 

Right, and he was credited with making 97.6% of those 206 chances, or 201. That's 5 plays. Five outs, compared to the leader, Markakis, over the course of a season. Two or three fewer outs than the RFers in the middle of that category.

He was rated as average or above average on the other 40 combined, right? So we'll be conservative and give him one out back.

That leaves us we a delta of between 4 and 1 outs.

I think how a player plays the normal ball over 200 times is more indicative of a players ability (due to much larger sample size) than the very rare great play here or there does, as indicated by an average sample size of eight balls over the five other % categories.  

 

Matter of opinion I guess.  It's why I liked Span in CF more than Revere.

[USAFChief]

I think how a player plays the normal ball over 200 times is more indicative of a players ability (due to much larger sample size) than the very rare great play here or there does, as indicated by an average sample size of eight balls over the five other % categories.  

 

Matter of opinion I guess.  It's why I liked Span in CF more than Revere.

But this is all supposed to relate to runs, right?

 

And there have been numerous posts in this very thread speculating that the reason, say, Franklin Gutierrez can go from average to spectacular and back again is because of those hard to make plays. 50 one year, 25 the next, etc. I believe you might have even agreed with that.

 

So I'm confused. Although I agree on Span!

[Riverbrian]

Just watch this play...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAts428eqQ0

 

Anybody with an eyeball can see that this is incredible off the charts range. Maybe 1 or 2 players could have made this catch from the starting position that Ben was at in LF. 

 

But Here's the Deal... The Ball was caught in what is most likely a high percentage zone. This Catch probably did very little to advance Revere's UZR upwards when it absolutely should have.

UZR will also factor that it was a left handed hitter and not a right handed hitter.

Was Ben in left because he was drifted there on his own talking to the left fielder about Pizza between pitches or was he placed there by a coach reading a spray chart.

 

Regardless... This is Range at the very Top of the Range scale and I'm pretty sure it was minimized by UZR methodology.

[USAFChief]

I thought this was a helpful and amusing little article on the subject that I came across.

Agree or disagree with the points, Pos is a hell of a writer.

 

"I'm park adjusted."

 

Man, I wish I could write like that.

[jimmer]

Now if we go back to UZR, we look at RZR, which measures range, Hunter ranked 27th out of 31 RF for RF who had 500 or more innings.  RZR is based on balls hit into zone compared to plays made.

 

He had 191 his hit into what is considered his zone and he made 169.  This effects his RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. And he was 31st out of 31. (which Inside Edge Fielding agrees)

 

He also had 50 plays made outside of his zone which ranked him close enough to average to say average in that regard.(Inside Edge Fielding agrees)

[jimmer]

 

But this is all supposed to relate to runs, right?

And there have been numerous posts in this very thread speculating that the reason, say, Franklin Gutierrez can go from average to spectacular and back again is because of those hard to make plays. 50 one year, 25 the next, etc. I believe you might have even agreed with that.

So I'm confused. Although I agree on Span!

except you and I were just talking different info, right?  Inside Edge Fielding? Inside Edge Fielding isn't assigning DRS.

[Willihammer]

 

Just watch this play...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAts428eqQ0

 

Anybody with an eyeball can see that this is incredible off the charts range. Maybe 1 or 2 players could have made this catch from the starting position that Ben was at in LF. 

 

But Here's the Deal... The Ball was caught in what is most likely a high percentage zone. This Catch probably did very little to advance Revere's UZR upwards when it absolutely should have.

UZR will also factor that it was a left handed hitter and not a right handed hitter.

Was Ben in left because he was drifted there on his own talking to the left fielder about Pizza between pitches or was he placed there by a coach reading a spray chart.

 

Regardless... This is Range at the very Top of the Range scale and I'm pretty sure it was minimized by UZR methodology.

Theoretically that will be balanced out by the increased number of balls hit to shallow LCF that most fielders won't catch, which Revere would be better positioned to make a play on. And if they don't balance out, then that is a poor reflection on the coaching staff and their defensive positioning moreso than the skill of the player.

 

It gets back to sample sizes and the fact that UZR is more directly measuring outcomes than player skill. I've been a Revere bobo since Day 1 and I still see an elite CFer but I know he has said that they have him playing shallower in Philly whereas Gardy had him deeper. I think its possible the difference in UZR scores is entirely owed to the difference in positioning. And actually if you want to compare RZR or UZR scores for the entire OF for both teams from the past 3 years, the Twins score higher than the Phillies in both metrics although I think we'd all agree the Phillies had better athletes playing the OF in that span.

[Riverbrian]

 

Theoretically that will be balanced out by the increased number of balls hit to shallow LCF that most fielders won't catch, which Revere would be better positioned to make a play on. And if they don't balance out, then that is a poor reflection on the coaching staff and their defensive positioning moreso than the skill of the player.

 

It gets back to sample sizes and the fact that UZR is more directly measuring outcomes than player skill. I've been a Revere bobo since Day 1 and I still see an elite CFer but I know he has said that they have him playing shallower in Philly whereas Gardy had him deeper. I think its possible the difference in UZR scores is entirely owed to the difference in positioning. And actually if you want to compare RZR or UZR scores for the entire OF for both teams from the past 3 years, the Twins score higher than the Phillies in both metrics although I think we'd all agree the Phillies had better athletes playing the OF in that span.

 

It's going to take a long time to balance it out theoretically because of all the routine catches that are made routinely before you get a chance at a balance out making play. 

 

If Ben doesn't make that catch... He will be UZR punished. He makes the catch and gets very little for it. To me that's a bottom line.  

 

I agree with you 100 percent... UZR is more a measure of outcomes then actual skill.

 

Sincerely, 

 

Fellow Revere Bobo

[jimmer]

I remember when a site (I forget which one, maybe Star Tribune?) put out a poll about Revere's best 5 most spectacular catches of the season when he was filling in at CF for Span.  Four of them he misread the ball of the bat and a couple of them he had to re-adjust his path because he took a bad routes.  Made the plays, and the final part of the play looked pretty, but they wouldn't have needed to be spectacular if he was better at reading the ball off the bat better and/or taking better routes.

 

And then there is his arm :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just watch this play...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAts428eqQ0

 

Anybody with an eyeball can see that this is incredible off the charts range. Maybe 1 or 2 players could have made this catch from the starting position that Ben was at in LF.

 

But Here's the Deal... The Ball was caught in what is most likely a high percentage zone. This Catch probably did very little to advance Revere's UZR upwards when it absolutely should have.

UZR will also factor that it was a left handed hitter and not a right handed hitter.

Was Ben in left because he was drifted there on his own talking to the left fielder about Pizza between pitches or was he placed there by a coach reading a spray chart.

 

Regardless... This is Range at the very Top of the Range scale and I'm pretty sure it was minimized by UZR methodology.

It would be interesting to see the UZR breakdown on that.

 

However, the ball was reasonably shallow and not very high. Those are factors considered by UZR too, not just the zone.

 

And if Revere is playing way out of normal position, presumably it is because he or the Phillies think that is going to help him or his teammates convert other opportunities into outs. Revere may only get modest credit for a play like this, but in theory he should be gaining credit in left center, .possibly a lot of credit.

 

And if his unusual positioning doesn't lead to more outs for him (or his teammates), then I think it would be fair to ding them in the UZR department.

[jimmer]

 

 

I agree with you 100 percent... UZR is more a measure of outcomes then actual skill.

 

Sincerely, 

 

Fellow Revere Bobo

A yearly UZR measures outcomes for that year, but is too small a sample size to measure actual skill.

 

Starts getting more interesting when you get to the last three years.  Like the primer says, if a guy is 5 points averages one year, 5 runs below average the next and around 1 run the next, he's likely an average fielder.  In regard to what Hunter has done the last three years, that would make his average DRS for 2012-2014 around -4.3.  Not horrific. Kind of what one would expect from a guy his age. But he turns 40 this summer so you don't see that trending up any time soon.

 

 

Larger sample size the better to see how he actually was over the course of his career, but how a player was in his 20s and early 30s has little to do with how he is in his late 30s.  It's why the last three or four years is more indicitive of a player's skill.  Not unlike looking at offensive production or pitching.

[Riverbrian]

 

I remember when a site (I forget which one, maybe Star Tribune?) put out a poll about Revere's best 5 most spectacular catches of the season when he was filling in at CF for Span.  Four of them he misread the ball of the bat and a couple of them he had to re-adjust his path because he took a bad routes.  Made the plays, and the final part of the play looked pretty, but they wouldn't have needed to be spectacular if he was better at reading the ball off the bat better and/or taking better routes.

 

And then there is his arm :-)

 

 

 

His arm ain't good... I'll never argue that. However... He can still throw the ball faster then a base runner can run... Even Billy Hamilton. 

 

With his speed he gets on the ball quicker and into throwing baseball position faster then others. This fact prevents runners from taking the extra base on him... Cuz a runner isn't going to advance when the guy has the rock in his hands. 

 

People always assume that runners are taking the extra base on Ben because of his poor arm. However... You won't find any statistical evidence that more runners advance on him.

 

If I'm rounding 2nd and I see that Revere is centered on the ball and ready to throw... I ain't going.

 

If I'm rounding 2nd and I see that Puig still has his momentum toward RF and he hasn't centered into a throwing position. I'm going for it. 

 

As for the bad routes... He was young... He'll get better at it. However... the spectacular catch is a source of fist pumping and motivation that I believe in.

[jimmer]

I remember a very slow AJ Pierzinski scoring standing up from 2B on a ball hit to short CF that Revere fielded and six hoped to the plate when he was not very far from the Infield grass upon release of the ball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A yearly UZR measures outcomes for that year, but is too small a sample size to measure actual skill.

 

Starts getting more interesting when you get to the last three years.  Like the primer says, if a guy is 5 points averages one year, 5 runs below average the next and around 1 run the next, he's likely an average fielder.  Larger sample size the better to see how he actually was over the course of his career, but how a player was in his 20s and early 30s has little to do with how he is in his late 30s.  It's why the last three or four years is more indicitive of a player's skill.  Not unlike looking at offensive production or pitching.

This is where UZR gets pretty sticky for me on a different level than what has previously been discussed.

 

Let's go back to Hunter. His UZR for the past three are 11.2, -4.1, -18.3. Assuming that he played the same innings in every season for the sake of me not having to do more math than is absolutely necessary, those balance out to a -3.7 UZR per season.

 

Hey, that's not too bad... But (there's always a but) Hunter is running on creaky old man legs right now. My personal feeling is that he has started to fall off a cliff.

 

Using three year averages may  balance out the statistic but it doesn't tell you with any predictive certainty who Hunter is in April of 2015. By the time you've collected three years of data, the player has moved out of that phase of his career and into a better fielder (not likely) or a worse fielder outside his prime (more likely).

 

So while the data is telling us Torii Hunter is a slightly below average fielder, I don't know if I buy that, either.

 

That's not really UZR's fault, just a weakness of any metric that needs so much data to be accurate that it spans a significant portion of a player's career and may no longer be relevant by the time the data is collated.

[Riverbrian]

 

I remember a very slow AJ Pierzinski scoring standing up from 2B on a ball hit to short CF that Revere fielded and six hoped to the plate when he was not very far from the Infield grass upon release of the ball.

 

Pfft... That's only because AJ is AJ... Most people simply don't go.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If we choose Inside Edge Fielding as our metric du jour, Hunter is just fine. Maybe even slightly above average in 2014.

I am definitely not well versed in Inside Edge numbers, but if you lower the qualifying bar a hair to 800 innings, Arcia is only a few plays off the leaders too. Basically everybody in baseball is within a few plays of each other.

 

Would be interested to read more about Inside Edge. If is too scouting-heavy, it might easily exceed UZR in subjectivity.

[jimmer]

 

Pfft... That's only because AJ is AJ... Most people simply don't go.

Most people wouldn't have gone?  I don't believe that.  Scouting report was out there and AJ, who is slow, knew he could make it.

[Riverbrian]

 

This is where UZR gets pretty sticky for me on a different level than what has previously been discussed.

 

Let's go back to Hunter. His UZR for the past three are 11.2, -4.1, -18.3. Assuming that he played the same innings in every season for the sake of me not having to do more math than is absolutely necessary, those balance out to a -3.7 UZR per season.

 

Hey, that's not too bad... But (there's always a but) Hunter is running on creaky old man legs right now. My personal feeling is that he has started to fall off a cliff.

 

Using three year averages may  balance out the statistic but it doesn't tell you with any predictive certainty who Hunter is in April of 2015. By the time you've collected three years of data, the player has moved out of that phase of his career and into a better fielder (not likely) or a worse fielder outside his prime (more likely).

 

So while the data is telling us Torii Hunter is a slightly below average fielder, I don't know if I buy that, either.

 

That's not really UZR's fault, just a weakness of any metric that needs so much data to be accurate that it spans a significant portion of a player's career and may no longer be relevant by the time the data is collated.

 

And... And... What happens... If Torii Hunter ends up with a UZR Rating of... Let's Say... 2 in 2015. 

 

Now what do you have?

 

Does anyone trust UZR enough to say that Hunter can't be a 2 in 2015?

[Riverbrian]

 

Most people wouldn't have gone?  I don't believe that.  Scouting report was out there and AJ, who is slow, knew he could make it.

 

I was joking... It's a dry sense of humor and I get stared at a lot because of it. (-;

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And... And... What happens... If Torii Hunter ends up with a UZR Rating of... Let's Say... 2 in 2015. 

 

Now what do you have?

 

Does anyone trust UZR enough to say that Hunter can't be a 2 in 2015?

I sure don't. Hunter could easily put up a positive number in right this season, which would make the situation even more confusing.