Dozier: A candidate for regression? (SI)

[Thrylos]

SI has a pretty nice article examining whether Dozier is a candidate for regression in 2015.

 

You can find it here.

 

It is in their fantasy section, but uses real baseball arguments, so it is appropriate for real life performance as well.  Lots of data and lots of analysis.  Interesting read in a time where there are tales about possible extension...

[jimmer]

I imagine we'll see some negative regression at least offensively. I think he's adjusting to the pitcher's adjustments and he'll end up with a higher OBP and a lower slugging % than last year. He seemed to moving in that direction in the 2nd half.

 

On top of that, if he stops swinging for the fences, he may raise that BABIP and BA. Basically, I think the power will diminish but he'll improve in the BA/OBP area.

 

On the bright side, I think he'll improve his defensive metrics from last year.

 

So he may end up being a high 3 WAR player instead of a mid 4 WAR guy like he was last year.  Either way, he'll be one of our best players.

[Paul Pleiss]

If Dozier doesn't regress then I'll cook a suckling pig for Thrylos for next year's Twins Fest.

[Thrylos]

If Dozier doesn't regress then I'll cook a suckling pig for Thrylos for next year's Twins Fest.

 

Totally appropriate, since I don't eat meat

[drock2190]

Totally appropriate, since I don't eat meat

 

Well your really missing out then...

[kellyvance]

I keep thinking about those out there who were 

-- saying trade Dozier we have kids coming up,

-- saying trade Suzuki, he is topping out on his ability

-- saying don't go get Torii Hunter,  his defensive matrics are dropping

-- saying The Twins will never hire free agent pitching

 

We ended up

-- thinking of extending Dozier

-- extending Zuke

-- signing Torii

-- extending Hughes and signing Santana

 

Dozier will hit a lot of hard hit balls to the left side, doubles down in the corner and occasional dingers. Pitchers figured out he was a high ball, inside pitch, pull hitter.  He needs to learn to hit the ball the other way if he wants to do better than a .250 BA. They will extend him and should. 

 

By contrast, Joe Mauer needs to get stronger and occasionally pull the ball for power. Joe, take one money swing every at bat. Use the other swings to hit for average. Give yourself one chance every at bat to hit one out. Joe could hit 20 HRs a year if he only did that. 

 

Kurt wil play well for two more years. But he takes a beating and he isn't getting any younger. I wonder why nobody talks about the effect, longevity wise, on catchers for handling "pitch to contact" pitching staffs. Seems to me there would be fewer injuries catching Nolan Ryan and high strikeout guys than guys that give up a lot of foul tips

 

And Torii is exactly what these young kids need on this team. So we better bring up the guys we really want him to teach, while he is here. 

 

.

[TheLeviathan]

Great article, it really puts a lot of hard data behind some of my concerns with Dozier.  The method by which he's had success has been so oddly inconsistent it's hard not to be worried about what exactly to expect from him.

 

Much like the article I'm confident he's still a nice piece, but how he does it is very much a question in my eyes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That basically backs up my thoughts on Dozier. I'm sold on everything about him except his HR power. He simply isn't that big of a guy and the balls we saw leaving the park in the first half turned into doubles in the second half.

 

That's going to drag on his slugging a bit, I think... but given his solid OBP and any potential gains he might see with an increase in BA, a dip in slugging isn't going to kill him. It might turn him from a .760-.770 player to a .730-.740 player if homers turn into doubles more consistently in 2015.

 

I can live with that. He's still a valuable piece if that happens.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As a side note, I find it a little disappointing that the article didn't delve into Dozier's swing percentages (but the pitch charts were excellent). IMO, those hit percentages are the most telling evidence that Dozier is for real (though his HR power might slip). Since he changed his swing in May of 2013, his swing, contact, LD, GB, FB percentages have been rock solid. That tells me what he's doing isn't a mirage; he's simply a good player, a very good player when position is considered.

[Willihammer]

As a side note, I find it a little disappointing that the article didn't delve into Dozier's swing percentages (but the pitch charts were excellent). IMO, those hit percentages are the most telling evidence that Dozier is for real (though his HR power might slip). Since he changed his swing in May of 2013, his swing, contact, LD, GB, FB percentages have been rock solid. That tells me what he's doing isn't a mirage; he's simply a good player, a very good player when position is considered.

The article did touch on his swing%

 

 

After swinging at 56.8 percent of all high strikes in the first half, Dozier offered at just 52.7 percent of them in the second. Dozier's patient approach at the plate is an asset for him, but he also needs to understand which pitches he wants to be aggressive on when he gets them. If you're a Dozier owner, you have to hope he won't let so many high strikes go by this year.

 

He was among the leaders in pitches / PA last year. Maybe he could stand to be more aggressive.

[jimmer]

The article did touch on his swing%

 

 

He was among the leaders in pitches / PA last year. Maybe he could stand to be more aggressive.

lots of Twins were high up on pitches per PA and our offense worked out pretty well

[Brock Beauchamp]

The article did touch on his swing%

 

 

He was among the leaders in pitches / PA last year. Maybe he could stand to be more aggressive.

Ah, yes. I was speaking more about his overall percentaged but you're right, the author did mention that tidbit.

[jorgenswest]

I imagine we'll see some negative regression at least offensively. I think he's adjusting to the pitcher's adjustments and he'll end up with a higher OBP and a lower slugging % than last year. He seemed to moving in that direction in the 2nd half.

 

On top of that, if he stops swinging for the fences, he may raise that BABIP and BA. Basically, I think the power will diminish but he'll improve in the BA/OBP area.

 

On the bright side, I think he'll improve his defensive metrics from last year.

 

So he may end up being a high 3 WAR player instead of a mid 4 WAR guy like he was last year.  Either way, he'll be one of our best players.

Just wondering...

 

If he improves in defensive metrics, does that translate to improved to defense and hence fewer runs given up. Is it possible that his defense will remain the same and only the metric will change?

[jimmer]

Just wondering...

 

If he improves in defensive metrics, does that translate to improved to defense and hence fewer runs given up. Is it possible that his defense will remain the same and only the metric will change?

Well, it's best to use 3 (or more years) to gain a true look at a players defensive abilities because (and this next part likely answers your question), UZR is a stat based on comparing players to others playing the same position.  So yes, a players UZR can change even if his defense stays the same because the average abilities of players playing the same position change from year to year.

[Shane Wahl]

I doubt there will be any significant offensive regression overall. I just don't see that happening for a couple years. I do not want his defense to continue to decline (still good in 2014, but 2013 was pretty great).

 

The thing I really like about Dozier--and the eye test is necessary here--is his ability to take the extra base or make uniquely smart decisions in the field. He has his "head in the game" more than any other Twins player I can think of in recent memory. 

[Paul Pleiss]

"Give me trade bait, or give me death." - Noted Patriot Patrick Henry while discussing Brian Dozier's looming extension and market value.

[jorgenswest]

Well, it's best to use 3 (or more years) to gain a true look at a players defensive abilities because (and this next part likely answers your question), UZR is a stat based on comparing players to others playing the same position. So yes, a players UZR can change even if his defense stays the same because the average abilities of players playing the same position change from year to year.

So even if he has a better defensive UZR measuring closer to his true ability and therefore an increase in defensive WAR, the actual impact on the Twins in the won loss column could be negligible.

 

As for the three years, I would add that offensive stats other than strikeouts and walks also need the three years to get a true picture and make projections.

[jimmer]

As for the three years, I would add that offensive stats other than strikeouts and walks also need the three years to get a true picture and make projections.

I'd add that all quality stats give a truer picture the larger the sample size gets, but yeah, especially when giving more weight to the last three seasons.

[Parker Hageman]

As a side note, I find it a little disappointing that the article didn't delve into Dozier's swing percentages (but the pitch charts were excellent).

 

 

I'm honestly uncertain the source of where this author is pulling his swing percentage numbers from. If it is BrooksBaseball.net, it conflicts with the data found at ESPN/trumedia that we have access to. According to the TruMedia data, Dozier swung at 53.1% of pitches up and in the zone in the first half but offered at more (59.6%) in the second half. So that contradicts the idea that Dozier grew less aggressive as the season went on.

 

To provide some context -- the MLB average for swings on high pitches in the zone is 63.7% so Dozier was behind a lot of baseball in terms of being aggressive. That part is true. 

 

There are more discrepancies in the data.

 

Then there is this statement:

 

Dozier is a dead-pull hitter on fly balls. Part of that owes to his ability to get on top of high pitches and yank them to left, but it's also going to lead to ugly homer droughts like the one he suffered in the second half of 2014. 

 

 

For Dozier, being a pull hitter isn't going to lead to an "ugly homer drought" -- it will wreak havoc on his average but it will enhance his power (provided that he's pulling pitches that should be pulled). Considering the dimensions of Target Field, pulling the ball is the only way a hitter like Dozier is going to be able to leave the field. The author is correct in suggesting that the distance part of Dozier's home runs may lead to fewer dingers in 2015 but the fact that he is a pull hitter should not effect his home run output. 

 

That's my two cents when reading this.