Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Mike Pelfrey

[tobi0040]

Yeah, I don't put much stock in his starting numbers with MoB. Relief is an entirely different role and with the increased velocity (hopefully, anyway) and increased aggression (hit this fastball, I dare you, hit this fastball, I dare you) from the bullpen, he could profile as a very different pitcher in a few months.

 

 

Step one is a good fu manchu.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Step one is a good fu manchu.

Definitely. Some might consider it mandatory.

[tobi0040]

Definitely. Some might consider it mandatory.

 

It increases velo and general intimidation factors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It increases velo and general intimidation factors.

I read this as "genital intimidation" and thoroughly enjoyed the post. Two thumbs up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I read this as "genital intimidation" and thoroughly enjoyed the post. Two thumbs up.

Maybe Pelfrey can throw naked batting practice?

[ashbury]

As far as his pedigree is concerned, he was the 9th overall pick in 2005 and was BA's 20th ranked player in 2007

I hesitate to interrupt the genital hijinks to get back to the topic, but I must.    The pedigree also needs to include seasons at age 24 and 26 where he pitched 200+ innings with better than league-average ERA.  That represents a valuable property; being league average at an important position is always a trade chip if nothing else.

 

His record says to me, when healthy he can pitch.  Health has been the issue ever since, not the pedigree.  Four years of bad health (I'm going to chalk up 2011 to some kind of degeneration) leads me to be skeptical, but along the lines Brock says above I am content to let the new on-field brain trust make the judgement this time.

[tobi0040]

I hesitate to interrupt the genital hijinks to get back to the topic, but I must.    The pedigree also needs to include seasons at age 24 and 26 where he pitched 200+ innings with better than league-average ERA.  That represents a valuable property; being league average at an important position is always a trade chip if nothing else.

 

His record says to me, when healthy he can pitch.  Health has been the issue ever since, not the pedigree.  Four years of bad health (I'm going to chalk up 2011 to some kind of degeneration) leads me to be skeptical, but along the lines Brock says above I am content to let the new on-field brain trust make the judgement this time.

 

I am not blown away by the two years.  We are going back five and seven years to find the good years. Two of his nine in the big's.   That was in the NL and pre-TJ.....and his FIP/xFIP numbers those years were a very non-earth shattering 3.96/4.45 and 3.82/4.31.

[ashbury]

I am not blown away by the two years.  We are going back five and seven years to find the good years. Two of his nine in the big's.   That was in the NL and pre-TJ.....and his FIP/xFIP numbers those years were a very non-earth shattering 3.96/4.45 and 3.82/4.31.

I'm not blown away either.  Someone asked what the pedigree is.  This seems pertinent.  Pedigree doesn't assure success.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not blown away either.  Someone asked what the pedigree is.  This seems pertinent.  Pedigree doesn't assure success.

 

Nope.  I merely brought it up because it seems that guys with a strong pedigree get many more chances to prove they can be useful.  I'm not sure a Luke Hochaver, Jason Isringhousen, Zach Britton or Glen Perkins gets as much leeway if they previously weren't a high draft pick or highly rated prospect.  Their stuff was well respected at one point so these guys likely get more chances as there likely is hope that the positives scouts saw at one point can still be salvaged.  Sometimes it can.

Edited February 6, 2015 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

I'm not blown away either.  Someone asked what the pedigree is.  This seems pertinent.  Pedigree doesn't assure success.

 

I guess I wasn't following the "when healthy he can pitch", given how limited of a sample size he has had of success over nine years, and the relative mediocre-ness of that success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

His record says to me, when healthy he can pitch.  Health has been the issue ever since, not the pedigree.  Four years of bad health (I'm going to chalk up 2011 to some kind of degeneration) leads me to be skeptical, but along the lines Brock says above I am content to let the new on-field brain trust make the judgement this time.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss 2011.  His poor 2009 season was virtually identical to his 2011 one.  And even his two good years share many common peripherals with his bad ones -- basically those two years he shaved off about 1 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9, which is obviously good but doesn't strike me as a skill given the rest of his record.  By xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB rate), he's basically been the same pitcher his entire career.

[zenser]

Personally, I feel that it is Milone's job to lose with May starting the season in the bullpen as a long man/spot starter and Meyer starting in AAA. I would expect to see Meyer in June.

 

Now injuries could happen and it could be an injury on another team. I think they dangle Pelfrey to see if anyone bites. That being said, I would expect to see a lot of him early in spring training as an audition for other teams. I wouldn't expect to get much for him even if we pick up some salary.

[Paul Pleiss]

Mike Pelfrey wore the same sweater to Twins Fest this year as he did at Twins Fest two years ago in the dome. That's consistency, and that's what TR and the Twins value. Also, if you squint a little, Big Pelf looks like a sasquatch. That's something of value. Hitters should fear that.

 

But, unfortunately, he's not actually a sasquatch, and hitters aren't squinting at the baseball. We will all wonder how Big Pelf was able to get a two year deal from the Twins, but we may never know. I think it's safe to assume that his super mega awesome agent got one over on the generous Twins front office. Whoops!

 

I think Pelf should start the season in the pen. See if his stuff plays up at all. No use sending him to AAA. Build up some value in the pen, and likely have him spot start as needed when arms start falling apart.

[jorgenswest]

I still don't see the upside of a low leverage relief role. It does nothing to develop a talent for the future, the role has little impact on the team's won loss record and there is no trade market for low leverage relievers.

 

It does hurt the future to give him that role only to see him leave at the end of the year. They just develop any potential relief talent for another team's benefit in 2016.