Another Twins Prospect at Work

[lightfoot789]

 

Hard work may pay off this year.

Click Youtube link at bottom right of the clip for full screen video and audio version.

[lightfoot789]

Can't wait to go to Chattanooga this year. What a line up

[nytwinsfan]

If he ever figures out his contact/strike zone issues, dude is going to be a monster.

[jokin]

Can't wait to go to Chattanooga this year. What a line up

 

I'm heading down the w/e of May 8, hope to take in at least 2 games.  Hopefully Walker will be there, along with Buxton, Sano and the rest of the Dream Team.

 

I would really like to see Walker flourish playing in an entire batting order lineup of no-doubt future major leaguers.

[lightfoot789]

I'm heading down the w/e of May 8, hope to take in at least 2 games. Hopefully Walker will be there, along with Buxton, Sano and the rest of the Dream Team.

 

I would really like to see Walker flourish playing in an entire batting order lineup of no-doubt future major leaguers.

I couldn't agree more. He might hit 7th in this line up and I couldn't complain. Although I would love to see him hit in front or behind Sano and see what type of pitches he gets. I would also like to see him hit where he is likely to see more fastballs too. Pitchers threw every type of pitch in their arsenal last year when he was at bat according to Miracle announcer Brice Zimmerman. No base threats or power threats were near him in lineup. I think it makes a difference. Sano and Vargas flourished when together in minors. Rosario flourished as well with Buxton in front of him.

[nicksaviking]

Has there been some discussion on this? I think Walker stays in FT. Myers. It seems to me a promotion to the high minors would almost seem like an endorsement or even worse, resignation that his awful plate discipline won't be improving. He's not making any kind of MLB impact if it doesn't.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Walker improved quite a bit as the season progressed. We tend to look at the overall stat line and forget that he was below the Mendoza line for what seemed like a month to start last season. I don't have a problem with him being in AA, though I'd rather him not be hitting behind (or in front of) Sano, if for no other reason than I want him seeing a regular diet of pitches designed to exploit the holes in his swing. It's the only way he's going to improve.

[gunnarthor]

Has there been some discussion on this? I think Walker stays in FT. Myers. It seems to me a promotion to the high minors would almost seem like an endorsement or even worse, resignation that his awful plate discipline won't be improving. He's not making any kind of MLB impact if it doesn't.

He's 23.  If he's still at A+, I think his status is gone. FSL is supposed to be a pitcher's league and he did a bunch of other things right.  I think the Twins promote him to AA, where Dougie Baseball can work with him. 

[lightfoot789]

Diehard - I agree that he only gets better by seeing bad pitches and becoming more disciplined.  However,  I also think that he has lived on never getting any protection as the only power hitter on the team.   Teams will always pitch you differently than everyone else if there is no fear factor in front or behind you.  They respect the hitters in his lineup but don't fear anyone like they feared him.  Managers knew he could change the game with one swing.   Why pitch to him?  Walker's problem was he always played as though he had to produce in order for his teams to win and played over aggressively.  If you look at his teams - He produced nearly 20 to 40 more RBIs than the next man on his teams.  That might not matter to us, but to a player on the field, I can see how your mindset becomes about winning and not development.  When Dalton Hicks was on his team in Cedar Rapids and producing as many if not more runs, Walker dropped his K rate to 20%.  Protection matters in developing prospects as well.  IMO

 

On a side note - Walker is extremely flexible for a man 6'5 and over 220+ lbs - Based on video.

 

Nicksaving - Terry Ryan spoke kindly of Walker on Twins Hot Stove and suggested he would start in AA Chattanooga.  He stated that he felt Walker was as talented as anyone in the system and had two excellent seasons thus far.  He also stated he felt Walker was right on pace to be a special corner outfielder.  That's not me, but the GM stating these thoughts.  That's not to say he doesn't have some work to do.  We all know that.  That's why I'm excited to see how he does with the proposed lineup in Chattanooga. 

 

Twins Hot Stove - December 10th - 23 minute 5 second mark of interview (Terry Ryan speaking about Walker)

[Steve Lein]

Has there been some discussion on this? I think Walker stays in FT. Myers. It seems to me a promotion to the high minors would almost seem like an endorsement or even worse, resignation that his awful plate discipline won't be improving. He's not making any kind of MLB impact if it doesn't.

 

I'm in this camp as well. I don't know how any body can be impressed by a .246 average in A-ball, especially from a guy with his experience level. He may be 'young,' but he also spent 3 full seasons in college, making him more experienced than a lot of guys even 2 years older than him. 

 

Walker improved quite a bit as the season progressed. We tend to look at the overall stat line and forget that he was below the Mendoza line for what seemed like a month to start last season. I don't have a problem with him being in AA, though I'd rather him not be hitting behind (or in front of) Sano, if for no other reason than I want him seeing a regular diet of pitches designed to exploit the holes in his swing. It's the only way he's going to improve.

 

He had a terrible April, and a strong August from a batting average standpoint. in between he hit about .245 (month's ranging from .226 to .262) and struck out over once per game throughout the entire season.

 

Though I think he will get moved to AA to start the year, I don't necessarily think his performance last year merits it. The HR's are nice, but there needs to be more improvement elsewhere.  I want to see a Travis Harrison-like improvement in contact and plate discipline before I really start believing in Walker (and it doesn't even have to be as extreme as Harrison, but there has to be improvement).

[Steve Lein]

However,  I also think that he has lived on never getting any protection as the only power hitter on the team.   Teams will always pitch you differently than everyone else if there is no fear factor in front or behind you.  They respect the hitters in his lineup but don't fear anyone like they feared him.  Managers knew he could change the game with one swing.   Why pitch to him? 

 

Yeah, but he wasn't intentionally walked once the entire season... That's a direct reflection on his contact issues, if you ask me. They knew he could change the game with a good swing, but they certainly weren't afraid to pitch to him.

 

Despite the HR's, the probability of him striking out and doing zero damage was far higher than him hitting that game changing HR.

 

And don't get me wrong, he's definitely the type of prospect to get excited about, but there's a lot of work to do. (and he certainly looks like he puts in the effort!)

[lightfoot789]

Why did he drop his K rate to 20% in 2013?  Was it because he had better players around him and teams were forced to pitch to him and not around him?  Was it because he was more selective and didn't feel the need to drive in all the runs?  Have you ever questioned why and how?

 

Harrison is considered to have had a better season than Walker in 2014 despite having hit 35 less RBI and 22 less HRs.  

 

Kepler is considered to have had a better season than Walker in 2014 despite having hit 35 less RBI and 20 less HRs.

 

What were they each asked to do by the organization.  Maybe Walker did exactly what the Twins wanted.  Maybe they never promoted him because they knew if he left, that team would truly struggle offensively.  He needs to stop swinging at bad pitches and relieve himself of the thought that he needs to drive in all the runs.  Get better and don't worry about winning at the minor league level.  These games don't matter!  Right?

[lightfoot789]

Winners Win. 

[Thrylos]

 

He had a terrible April, and a strong August from a batting average standpoint. in between he hit about .245 (month's ranging from .226 to .262) and struck out over once per game throughout the entire season.

 

Here are the numbers that matter for Walker month by month:

 

April: .208/.290/.441; 11:32 BB:K

May: .262/.296/.524; 5:28 BB:K

June: .235/.271/.337; 5:28 BB:K

July: .226/.299/.443; 10:38 BB:K

August: .294/.374/.490; 13:30 BB:K

 

Other than August he was terrible.  That is Butera territory OBP.  I got him as number 21 on my Twins' prospect list, and unless he gets some plate discipline, it will get worse.

 

Kinda disappointing to see that workout to tell you the truth.  What he needs is to stand at a batters box without a bat and take 1000 pitches per day from a machine and recognizing strikes and balls...

[Seth Stohs]

It's fun to see this. I definitely believe in Walker's potential. Of course he has things to work on... if he didn't, he'd be in the big leagues. I think he goes up to Chattanooga too. He could have another 25+ HR season. 

[Steve Lein]

Why did he drop his K rate to 20% in 2013?  Was it because he had better players around him and teams were forced to pitch to him and not around him?  Was it because he was more selective and didn't feel the need to drive in all the runs?  Have you ever questioned why and how?

 

Harrison is considered to have had a better season than Walker in 2014 despite having hit 35 less RBI and 22 less HRs.  

 

If you question the drop in 2013, how do you not question the fact it increased to 28% in the FSL?

 

I don't hate RBI's as much as some as a stat to use to praise hitters, but it's obviously not great either. But I'll throw out another flawed stat for added comparison:

 

Harrison did not rely on HR's to score runs. Take away the gimme runs scored for HR's, and Harrison scored 77 by simply getting on base.

Take away the gimme's for Walker, and he scored only 53 runs by getting on base.

 

Also, something I like to look at is what I call "RBI percentage" which is a percentage measure of Runs batted in vs. possible runners to bat in, when up to bat. It ignores RBI's from HR's for the batter (i.e.: I subtract HR's from RBI totals before making the calculation, so it measures only the baserunners driven in).

 

In this category, Walker drove in 18.5 percent of all possible runners on base in 2014. Harrison? He drove in 19.2%. Seems odd, doesn't it?

 

 

What I'm getting at, is home runs aren't everything. They're nice, but in a guy like Walker's case (where that's all he currently has), he has to be competent in other things to make the power play as he moves up. And that's what I want to see.

[lightfoot789]

Walker obtained more walks (BBs) than everyone on the AA and AAA teams not named Romero?   

 

Do his stats compared to park differentials change your thinking as an overall stat ? (FSL hardest league to score runs in all of baseball including MLB)

 

Walker's biggest objectors come from what he is likely not going to be able to do? at his next levels.  That being said - is a lost argument from my standpoint.  My argument is only based on production and what he's done thus far (yearly).  If he continues to do what he is doing at each level moving forward, it may not be ideal, but from a production level, it will be harder to argue.  I think he is an anomaly in this regard.  Wins at every level doing what he is doing.  He's no Mike Trout, but leading in HRs / RBI / & K's worked for him all the way to a MVP.  I'll settle for a mid level all star with what he does annually.

 

.260 BA / .312 OBP / .796 OPS - While leading league in HRs / RBI / TB's and K's & 2 Championships.  I am sorry for turning this thread into something I had no intentions of doing.  I let myself get drawn back in.  I'm out.  Just enjoyed finding the video of a kid working on his dream.

[Steve Lein]

Walker obtained more walks (BBs) than everyone on the AA and AAA teams not named Romero?   

 

...

 

My argument is only based on production and what he's done thus far (yearly).  If he continues to do what he is doing at each level moving forward, it may not be ideal, but from a production level, it will be harder to argue.  I think he is an anomaly in this regard. 

 

He was about 8% walk rate last year (which is not terrible -> Vargas was 10.6% at AA), but with that many K's (28% -> Vargas was 16.7%) and it only gets you to a .307 OBP, there are flags you can't ignore in my view.

 

But I definitely agree with you on the second point. If he continues to do what he's done, there will be a place for him!

 

There were a lot of examples of Twins hitters improving numbers after moving on from the FSL to the Eastern League, and I imagine it will be the same in the Southern League for the reasons you mention about the FSL. I'm certain that I'm as excited as you are to see if this happens with Walker, I'm just more of a skeptic, that's all!

[Thrylos]

My biggest issue with Walker (again) is his OBP and selectivity.  And he has been consistent:

 

.310 at E-town, .319 at Cedar Rapids and .307 at Fort Myers.  Not league-dependent, not park dependent.  Recognizing balls and strikes is the same at all levels.  And this is Walker's biggest issue.  Not hitting HRs... 

 

Reality:  Walker had the lowest OBP at Fort Myers this season for players who played 30 games or more there...   This is a problem. 

[lightfoot789]

Agreed.  That is why I say he is an Anomaly.  First or second in Runs Scored each year and gets on base less than everyone (Anomaly).  Poor OBP, but had more hits than everyone on the team (Anomaly).  He doesn't do it pretty or conventional.  48 more Total Bases than the next closest teammate (220 to 172), despite 57 more Strike Outs (Anomaly).  6'5 & 230 lbs. yet 23 for 28 (82%) in Stolen Bases during short professional career (Anomaly).  Championships in 2 of 3 seasons with the missing title coming off the best record in minor league baseball that year (2013).  THE SAME YEAR HE WON MIDWEST LEAGUE MVP (Anomaly).

 

So much to learn and so much to improve on. AGREED!!  That's why I'm more excited to see where he goes from here, as opposed to worrying about what could continue to go wrong.

 

I heard Mike Schmidt talking on the MLB station about how he cut his K rate from 21%  to the 15% from 1985 to 1986 (MVP year).  He talked about how he is still in the top 10 for strikeouts despite being a HOF.  He said he corrected his tendency for K's by being more aggressive on 0 & 0 counts.  One might think Walker is overly aggresive at the plate but from listening to games, Brice Zimmerman (announcer)often talks about Walker always taking 1st pitch strikes.  Maybe it is his approach and not his skill set.  I guarentee 100% of his K's come with 2 strikes.  I'm willing to bet that the majority of his hits do too.  Food for thought........................

[diehardtwinsfan]

Winners Win. 

 

I'm sorry, but this argument drives me up a wall.  Every single guy in the minors was an all star in high school and going into college.  They all carried their teams, because they were THAT good.  Walker certainly has done well, and I don't mean to denigrate his accomplishments, but if being a star in baseball was about some sort of mental fortitude, your drafts would look A LOT different than they do today. 

 

I think everyone agrees that the kid could be a star, and I don't agree that if he ended up repeating A+ that it means he's done as a prospect.  But in all seriousness, I think you should slow it down just a bit.  He has flaws.  Those flaws will only get magnified as he moves up the chain.  That was very obvious in Fort Meyers this year, and better pitchers in AA will zone in on that even more, as they can locate pitches much better than the guys in A+.  He's got monster power potential, but a ways to go.  I think the Twins are right in taking the slow path here.  Perhaps he could be another Vlad Guerrero, but more often than not those types of prospects fail.

 

Honestly, the one thing I really hope he works on is defense.  If he can be an above average defender in the corners, he will carve out a nice career as a defensive sub/4th OF with some pop.

[lightfoot789]

TR seemed to like him.  23 in AA sounds promising. But much work to do.  Agreed with all the flaws just not the outlook.

[Thrylos]

I heard Mike Schmidt talking on the MLB station about how he cut his K rate from 21%  to the 15% from 1985 to 1986 (MVP year).  He talked about how he is still in the top 10 for strikeouts despite being a HOF.  He said he corrected his tendency for K's by being more aggressive on 0 & 0 counts.  One might think Walker is overly aggresive at the plate but from listening to games, Brice Zimmerman (announcer)often talks about Walker always taking 1st pitch strikes.  Maybe it is his approach and not his skill set.  I guarentee 100% of his K's come with 2 strikes.  I'm willing to bet that the majority of his hits do too.  Food for thought........................

 

K% by itself is irrelevant.  Walker's issue is that he cannot take a walk (pun intended) and cannot judge the zone.  Schmidt led the league in both BBs and OBP many seasons.   Walker's BB:K ratios and OBPs are up there.  Look at those and then look at Schmidt's.  They are as different players as different go.  Do you want a Walker comparable from Schmidt's era?  Here: This guy. 

[jokin]

I'm sorry, but this argument drives me up a wall.  Every single guy in the minors was an all star in high school and going into college.  They all carried their teams, because they were THAT good.  Walker certainly has done well, and I don't mean to denigrate his accomplishments, but if being a star in baseball was about some sort of mental fortitude, your drafts would look A LOT different than they do today. 

 

I think everyone agrees that the kid could be a star, and I don't agree that if he ended up repeating A+ that it means he's done as a prospect.  But in all seriousness, I think you should slow it down just a bit.  He has flaws.  Those flaws will only get magnified as he moves up the chain.  That was very obvious in Fort Meyers this year, and better pitchers in AA will zone in on that even more, as they can locate pitches much better than the guys in A+.  He's got monster power potential, but a ways to go.  I think the Twins are right in taking the slow path here.  Perhaps he could be another Vlad Guerrero, but more often than not those types of prospects fail.

 

Honestly, the one thing I really hope he works on is defense.  If he can be an above average defender in the corners, he will carve out a nice career as a defensive sub/4th OF with some pop.

 

 

K% by itself is irrelevant.  Walker's issue is that he cannot take a walk (pun intended) and cannot judge the zone.  Schmidt led the league in both BBs and OBP many seasons.   Walker's BB:K ratios and OBPs are up there.  Look at those and then look at Schmidt's.  They are as different players as different go.  Do you want a Walker comparable from Schmidt's era?  Here: This guy.

 

 

Vlad Guerrero or Boom Boom Balboni?  Sorry, as much as I like Walker's attitude and am pulling for him, let's get real here and get down to basics. 

 

I think it's fair- and the one thing clearly in his favor- to say that Walker as an athlete is much closer to Guerrero than Balboni  (but his OF defense is currently categorized by Callis: "While Walker is athletic and runs well for a big man, he's a work in progress in right field and will never be better than average there...")

 

Walker 6'5"  235#  OF  SB/CS-  23/5

Balboni 6'3" 225#  OF  SB/CS-  5/3

Guerrero 6'3" 225#  1B SB/CS-  31/26

 

And throw in Oswaldo Arcia 6' 220# OF SB/CS 15/7

 

Balboni was a college player like Walker, so they are both 2-3 years older than Guerrero and Arcia at the same stage of professional development.  Here are their numbers from their first 3 years in pro ball:

 

Guerrero Slash: .343/.407/.527/.934   BB% 8.3%  K%  10.0%

Balboni   Slash: .266/.363/.466/.829   BB% 12.2% K% 26.1%

Arcia       Slash: .312/.364/.552/.916   BB%  6.8%  K%  19.9%  BABIP .358

Walker    Slash:  .260/.316/.487/.803  BB% 7.3%   K% 25.6%  BABIP .306

 

It's clear that with the nearly 50 point difference in OBP and 5 percentage point difference in BB%, Walker's career thus far doesn't even suggest a Balboni-like career.  It's also pretty clear that Arcia's current main impediment that is forestalling his major league career is the high K/BB rate and that wasn't even that much of an issue all the way to his first year through A+ ball. Arcia's issues have become quite apparent at the major league level and are reminiscent of Walker's averages in the minor leagues:

 

BABIP .314  BB% 6.9%  K% 31.0%

 

 

For Walker to succeed in becoming major league starter potential, it's going to necessitate overcoming what seem to be nearly impossible hurdles.  Even the career splits don't come down in his favor as a potential platoon specialist (.794 OPS vs. RHP,  .790 OPS vs. LHP).

 

I agree with a previous poster, this will be the year that  determines if he's still a prospect or not, the odds aren't in his favor.

[lightfoot789]

Only comparison to Schmidt was meant in his ability to cut down K's while still being a Power threat.   I never talk about Walker improving OBP.  I talk about him cutting down K's.  I'm not as caught up on OBP as it pertains to anything else but less K's.  OBP is not my concern.

[ashbury]

Boom Boom Balboni?

ITYM "Bye Bye"?

[Seth Stohs]

Just wow, people.