Hellickson Traded to Arizona

[TheLeviathan]

Interesting trade.

 

I think this was good value for Arizona, would you have done something similar if you were the Twins?  I feel like the equivalent would have been Kepler and Zach Jones or something in that neighborhood.

[Linus]

Doesn't seem like much upside on either side of the trade.  I wouldn't have done it if I were the Twins; not because I wouldn't give up the prospects but I don't think the Twins need anymore back of the rotation type guys.

[TheLeviathan]

Doesn't seem like much upside on either side of the trade.  I wouldn't have done it if I were the Twins; not because I wouldn't give up the prospects but I don't think the Twins need anymore back of the rotation type guys.

 

You could have said the same thing about Hughes prior to last year.  What makes Hellickson have some upside is his minor league track record and pitching talent.  It's just about finding a way to unlock that talent again.  

[Linus]

I suppose you could say something similar about any trade for a player that has struggled.  I think the return for him is a pretty good gauge for what the market thought of Hellickson's chances to be a top pitcher.

[TheLeviathan]

Totally agree, but that's the nature of a buy-low trade.  Most of them fail, but trying them every now and then can reap some major benefits.

[Linus]

And I would be in favor of a deal like this if the Twins were in a different situation, where they needed depth in their rotation.  IMO, their depth is fine, top end talent is what they are missing.

 

I would also do this deal several times over before signing Pelfry or Corriea.

[tobi0040]

Hellickson had a 2.95 ERA at 24 and a 3.10 ERA at 25 in the AL East, while pitching 187 and 177 IP.

 

Then had an ERA of 5.17, FIP of 4.22 and K'd 7 per 9 at 26.  Then hurt at 27. 

 

Looks like a ton of upside to me.

[beckmt]

Think the Twins need to find out what Meyer, May and Berrios can do this year before deciding to give up prospects or spend more money on starting pitching.  It will only delay the process if we keep putting back of rotation types in front of them.

[tobi0040]

Think the Twins need to find out what Meyer, May and Berrios can do this year before deciding to give up prospects or spend more money on starting pitching.  It will only delay the process if we keep putting back of rotation types in front of them.

 

Hellickson still has two years of abr left.  I would have been happy if this was our pitching acqusition (assuming we aren't in on the top four guys). 

 

He provides more upside than the rest of the characters out there, IMO.

[Rosterman]

This would be like us trading Polanco and one of our recently drafted outfielders for a starter that has two years to reshine before free agency. If you deal from a minor league position of strength (and if the outfielder, as in this case, was a high enough draft pick but still far enough away, and Polanco has some value if we see Santana being the shortstop of our future, for now, with Gordon in the wings) it would be a no brainer.

 

It would be fascinating to hear what goes on in various front offices when a trade like this happens. Are there people scratching their heads going "we should've/could've done that, who knew what they wanted" or "how did we miss that one."

[DocBauer]

Don't know enough about the Diamondback's situation to know if Hellickson fits or not. But on the surface, it seems like a very smart move. Still 27, healthy, he could develop Hughes-like, though I am not directly comparing.

 

While I would not have opposed the Twins pulling a similar trigger on this one, generally speaking, I wouldn't have made this move were I them. I believe the Twins will probably be forced to make a minor trade for OF help/depth/competition, perhaps with St Lois for Jay or Bourjos for example. A move of this nature, while beneficial for the 2015 Twins, nets a possible starting CF for about a year, a 4th OF candidate beyond that, and shouldn't require any top prospects, just a decent one or two.

 

I am only on board with a major trade if we move a talented young prospect or two for a return of a talented young player who has ability, real upside, and team control for some time. (OF or SP). Otherwise, I believe the Twins are best serve making a couple smart FA investments, and holding on to every prospect possible for one additional year.

 

Just think next season how much stronger the depth and talent of the roster and 40 man will look with May and Meyer gaining a season, a number of young relievers developing and being promoted, starters like Berrios, Lee and Gilmartin getting really close. Sano should make his first appearance, along with Rosario and hopefully Buxton. Polanco may be ready. Walker could be coming off a solid to excellent AA season. And there are certainly other examples. Having that much young talent making a mark, begining to make a mark, or at AAA pushing hard to do so, gives the Twins a lot of ammunition and flexibility to make a key addition or two this time next offseason.

[twinsfanstreif]

Hellickson had a 2.95 ERA at 24 and a 3.10 ERA at 25 in the AL East, while pitching 187 and 177 IP.

 

Then had an ERA of 5.17, FIP of 4.22 and K'd 7 per 9 at 26.  Then hurt at 27. 

 

Looks like a ton of upside to me.

He also had a low average of .260 of balls put in play (most pitchers are around .300) and a strand rate of 80%, those are unrepeatable numbers and he was bound to come back down to earth. That being said the 5.17 was on the other spectrum, he will be somewhere between them and will look even better in the NL. On the twins he would have hovered around a mid 4 era and would have been a solid 3 at best

[tobi0040]

He also had a low average of .260 of balls put in play (most pitchers are around .300) and a strand rate of 80%, those are unrepeatable numbers and he was bound to come back down to earth. That being said the 5.17 was on the other spectrum, he will be somewhere between them and will look even better in the NL. On the twins he would have hovered around a mid 4 era and would have been a solid 3 at best

 

Career FIP is 4.36, in the best division in baseball and ages 23-27.  His k rate has steadily increased as well.

 

Given what we are likely to sign this off-season....like Brett Anderson who has pitched about 200 IP in the last four seasons.....I would have taken Hellickson.  Even if he is a solid 3 I think that is better than what we will sign this off-season.

[twinsfanstreif]

Career FIP is 4.36, in the best division in baseball and ages 23-27.  His k rate has steadily increased as well.

 

Given what we are likely to sign this off-season....like Brett Anderson who has pitched about 200 IP in the last four seasons.....I would have taken Hellickson.  Even if he is a solid 3 I think that is better than what we will sign this off-season.

According to this (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/) a FIP of 4.36 is below average and almost in the poor category, his K rate is almost exactly league average (7.1 is average). I understand he was in the AL east and I think he'll succeed in the NL but he is a league average pitcher or below on almost every metric even in his successful years

[tobi0040]

According to this (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/) a FIP of 4.36 is below average and almost in the poor category, his K rate is almost exactly league average (7.1 is average). I understand he was in the AL east and I think he'll succeed in the NL but he is a league average pitcher or below on almost every metric even in his successful years

 

So he has put up about league average numbers (3.83 ERA is above average, 4.36 FIP is poor).  His k rate is league average and rising.  And he has put those numbers up at a young age.  

 

He had the rookie of the year, 4th in AL ERA one year, and 4th in hits per 9 at an age where Meyer and May would have still been in the minors.

 

I will take him over what we will sign this off-season.  That is the broader point here.

[biggentleben]

Hellickson will be an interesting case study into the "Tampa way" affecting a pitcher.  He had strand rates so far out of line with norms before his poor pre-injury season that it was the focus of numerous Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus articles.  Going to a home run haven rather than spacious Tropicana along with a team that isn't horrid defensively, but still doesn't maximize their defense in the same way Tampa does, could be very interesting.  As far as stuff, he's probably more similar to Kevin Slowey than most baseball pundits would like to admit, but he has a little bit of deception in his delivery to the plate that helps him outside of the incredible strand rates that he saw before his horrid pre-injury year.

 

An interesting tidbit...Tampa's been vaunted as player development gurus and all tat, but these two guys, middle of the top 15-20 list for Arizona, will certainly be top 10 guys in Tampa as their farm system is definitely bottom 10 and could be argued as bottom 5.  Friedman and Maddon may have seen the impeding doom and got out at the right time.