How to Slice the Payroll Pie

[jay]

Came across an interesting article from Pirates coverage that analyzed how playoff teams distribute their payroll dollars:

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/7036813-74/payroll-rodriguez-tigers

 

Of the past 46 major league playoff teams, only nine spent more than 17 percent of their payroll on a single player, and only one — the 2010 Texas Rangers — spent more than 20 percent of payroll on one player (Michael Young).

 

The Twins spent roughly 26% of their payroll on Joe Mauer last year and greater than 20% in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

Only eight playoff teams of the past five years spent 60 percent or more of payroll on their five highest-paid players.

 

The Twins spent roughly 65% of their payroll on the five highest-paid players (using the pre-season roster and payroll).

 

The easy answer here is to blame Joe Mauer, but I think we're also seeing a shortage of young, successful players that needed to be extended/retained.  In order to get their top-paid player to equate to less than 17% of their payroll like the vast majority of playoff teams, the Twins would need a payroll of $135M.  It's hard to envision the Twins reaching that number within the next few years, so they will need to be an exception in order to make the playoffs.  That could be very possible if prospects and young players turn into a swell of successful, league-minimum paid players.

[Rosterman]

At some point you all have a "franchise player" that is above and beyond your normal payroll,

[nicksaviking]

Joe Mauer only takes up 26% of payroll because the Twins keep payroll low.  Detroit is not singled out despite all of their bloated, ugly contracts.

 

It is some solid research, but I still think it boils down to the question: "Has Joe Mauer's contract been the reason the Twins haven't signed better free agents?"

 

I think the answer is still: "No." 

 

The math above is sound, but I'm guessing very few teams, playoff or non-playoff, have a player making more than 20% of the team's salary.  I'd say that the reason you don't see many teams built that way in the playoffs is simply because the scenario is rare.  Foolish, but mostly just rare.

 

After all, most of the ugly, albatross contracts are on the big market teams and the 20% guideline would not be in play with a $180+ million payroll.  Unless you signed a guy for $36 million per.

 

Edit:  Just did a Cot's Contract check.  Only three teams had players take up more than 20% of the team's payroll last year.  The sad sack Twins, the Mets, who are keeping payroll down artificially while still hanging on to David Wright, and the Seatle Mariners and Robinson Cano who finished one game back of a playoff spot. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, it isn't Mauer's deal that is the issue.....it is the lack of enough other guys worth paying (and choosing not to sign more FA, right or wrong choice is not the discussion here).

[Steven Buhr]

I'd simply suggest that most postseason teams aren't filled primarily with pre-arbitration players and a single, established star who has cashed in on his once-in-a-career mega-deal. As others have alluded to, it's not simply Mauer's contract that has resulted in his compensation being a significant chunk of the overall payroll, it's the fact that so many of the remaining 24 spots are made up of minimum salary serfs and early arb eligibles.

 

Not that I'd be disappointed if the Twins opened up the pocketbook to add a couple more established stars.

[tobi0040]

I'd simply suggest that most postseason teams aren't filled primarily with pre-arbitration players and a single, established star who has cashed in on his once-in-a-career mega-deal. As others have alluded to, it's not simply Mauer's contract that has resulted in his compensation being a significant chunk of the overall payroll, it's the fact that so many of the remaining 24 spots are made up of minimum salary serfs and early arb eligibles.

 

Not that I'd be disappointed if the Twins opened up the pocketbook to add a couple more established stars.

 

I view the progression as three stages. 

 

Stage 1 is the rookie deal and arbitration. Guys are going to make $500K to a few million in most cases.  Stage 2 is the first contract, typically team friendly as it may buy out a year or two of free agency at something close to arbitration prices plus a few million.  Stage 3 is free agency.

 

Mauer made $500K in stage 1, $8.25M a year in stage 2, and $23M a year in stage 3.

 

All successful teams save two or three are going to need key contributors/studs in stages one and two.  Even the Giants with a $147M payroll relied on Jordan Crawford in stage 1, Bumgarner, Sandoval, and Posey in stage 2. 

 

The Royals are going to resemble something closer to what the Twins will need. Ventura, Herrera, Duffy, Dyson, Finnegan, and Moustakis are in stage one. Escobar, Hosmer, Perez, Holland, Shields, and Wade Davis are in stage 2.  The guys they have in stage 3 are not huge names that command top dollars, like Willingham, Guthrie, Vargas

[REPETE]

As Mark Twain mentioned, "there's 3 kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics." This falls under the last. When the Twins were a perrennial playoff team, it wasn't because Mauer wasn't a large portion of their payroll, it's because they were all young, and playing well, in a bad division. Mauer's contract certainly hasn't helped matters since, but I don't believe you can blame him. Morneau's injuries, the pitching staff falling completely apart, bad trades, and the right free agents not retained, and a dearth of talent in the minors have brought us to this 4 year low point.

[tobi0040]

As Mark Twain mentioned, "there's 3 kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics." This falls under the last. When the Twins were a perrennial playoff team, it wasn't because Mauer wasn't a large portion of their payroll, it's because they were all young, and playing well, in a bad division. Mauer's contract certainly hasn't helped matters since, but I don't believe you can blame him. Morneau's injuries, the pitching staff falling completely apart, bad trades, and the right free agents not retained, and a dearth of talent in the minors have brought us to this 4 year low point.

 

We had a bunch of guys in stages 1 and 2 that were healthy and contributing.  Some guys got the stage 3 contract somewhere else (Hunter and Johan), a couple of other guys got hurt and were let go....and almost nobody has come up from the minors to fill that hole.

[Riverbrian]

There are many different ways to skin a cat. And that is why I continue to not be concerned about the overall payroll number from year to year.

 

The most consistent successful cat skinning in my mind is still Starting Pitching.

 

After that... It's a consistent pipeline of talent coming from The minors who can pressure under performing vets for playing time.

 

That Pipeline isn't just the Buxton's and Sano's of the world. It's the Panik's and Dozier's and Santana's of the world.

 

That's why I want the next manager to NOT lock in on a under performing player. Playing the slumping guy every day... Just because he's supposed to perform better but doesn't.

 

With Santana and Vargas and Escobar... The Twins are starting to produce some things. We could field 13 players who can all play a little in 2015... This manager change is happening at a good time. Providing that Molitor doesn't lock in like Gardy tended to.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd simply suggest that most postseason teams aren't filled primarily with pre-arbitration players and a single, established star who has cashed in on his once-in-a-career mega-deal. As others have alluded to, it's not simply Mauer's contract that has resulted in his compensation being a significant chunk of the overall payroll, it's the fact that so many of the remaining 24 spots are made up of minimum salary serfs and early arb eligibles.

 

Not that I'd be disappointed if the Twins opened up the pocketbook to add a couple more established stars.

 

23, that other one doesn't matter per team officials.