Mackey: Twins should emulate the Cardinals

[tobi0040]

We very much agree that the Twins have not traded away assets with good results over the years. Revere and Span verdicts are not in, don't you agree?

 

As for your noble attempt to create a hypothetical hindsight WS team? Boy, I'd have to look at the windows of availability, the injury patterns, contract info, etc., but my instincts tell me this still would not have done the trick, even if by some miracle all those players agreed to sign with the Twins. But maybe, and a very good try, thrylos.

 

But I think the argument still holds that the only truly plausible method for extracting a team from the depths like what the Twins were in is by taking some lumps, starting the rebuild via draft and Int'l and then hoarding those prospects, filling holes opportunistically with other team's rejects and stopgap FA types, and then, at the end, when some surplus is finally in place, acquiring a few final pieces via FA and trades. I know perhaps most here think the Twins have not had a strategy. I think they are sticking with the one they've had all along. Outside of a few understandable stumbles along the way, they're making progress. We're about to see if Ryan will take aggressive steps here at the tail end of the rebuild.

 

This is the danger of making huge splashes on the free agent market.  Ellsbury is a CF/LF who had an OPS of .747 this year.  He has been hurt a tad in his career and he is owed $22M a year through his age 37. I really don't fault the Twins here.

 

Tanaka was an unknown commodity.  Scouts were pretty unanomous that he was not anywhere near Darvish and the Yankees handed him $150M. It worked out for 3 months and now he has a partiallly torn UCL.  Cruz is at 8M but he is going to get paid this offseason. 

 

I think the Twins need to be smarter.  We could probably platoon CF or LF and get .750-800 OPS type production between Arcia, Plouffe, Sano, Hicks, et. all.   Arcia and Plouffe alone get you to the .800 range.   I looked the other day, Hicks had a .750 OPS last year against lefties, Arcia has a career .848 OPS against righties.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You have to be willing to take chances, and you do tend to have the money to do so. 

This is what it comes down to, for me.  TR is conservative by nature, and while I don't want my GM forcing big free agent signs or recklessly dealing top prospects -- I also don't want them to so passively accept a 5+ year, 90+ loss rebuilding plan.  Why not bid aggressively on a Cuban you like, to try jump-starting this thing a bit?  Or a Dominican pre-July 1, 2012?  Thank goodness for the slots and spending caps that took effect in 2012 or I shudder to think where TR would have this organization -- may not have Buxton or Stewart.  (Although Gordon feels like a TR throwback conservative pick again...)

 

Now, that alone isn't going to make us equal to the Cardinals, but it helps.  Less tolerance for mediocre coaches would help too (and hopefully TR is finally getting wise to this now, although it feels like more of a desperation move than a targeted smart one, just like the Nolasco signing last winter).

[Steve Lein]

We're about to see if Ryan will take aggressive steps here at the tail end of the rebuild.

 

This isn't the tail end of a rebuild.  It's closer to the beginning.

 

I personally think the Twins are at least 2 years behind on what should have been their rebuild. 

 

This is what has frustrated me the most about them in these losing years.  Not the fact that they've been losing, but the fact they've never embraced the term or philosophy of a "rebuild."  It's like a curse word to them, when it actually would have served them far better from a public relations standpoint.

 

It comes off to me like TR and everyone else thinks we're idiots.  You're team has lost 90+ games for four straight years now, guys. This is kindergarten level math...

[tobi0040]

This isn't the tail end of a rebuild.  It's closer to the beginning.

 

I personally think the Twins are at least 2 years behind on what should have been their rebuild. 

 

This is what has frustrated me the most about them in these losing years.  Not the fact that they've been losing, but the fact they've never embraced the term or philosophy of a "rebuild."  It's like a curse word to them, when it actually would have served them far better from a public relations standpoint.

 

It comes off to me like TR and everyone else thinks we're idiots.  You're team has lost 90+ games for four straight years now, guys. This is kindergarten level math...

 

You could make the case that we should take a large step forward this next year, or at the very minimum start to really show promise.   Gibson is in year 3. May, Santana, and Vargas are in year 2.  And our top four prospects (at least 4 of our top 5) could all crack the big league roster (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios).

 

If we play all our best cards and don't show promise of a contending team in 2 years, then I agree we are at the beginning.

[chopper0080]

Disagree if you choose, but  one of the reasons cited for the public subsidy was to "... retain its players"--they might just as well have said "Joe Mauer".  People can (and do) discuss the relative merits of Mauer, but the message was clear "...[we] want Mauer!"  Please consider that people pay premium and even super premium prices for "star" talent--entertainment, lawyers, doctors, financial advisors, basically all walks of life.  There is ample precedent for Twins fans to demand to see "their favorite player"--and pay for the priviledge to do so.

 

OK, just because you have a reason to do something doesn't make it a smart move.  The question always remains, is the easy move or is it the right move?  Are you doing it to win games or are you doing it to appease fans?  I agree that the Twins re-signed Mauer to appease fans, but that doesn't make it a smart move.  Where are the fans now that we have him, and are one of the worst teams in baseball?

[chopper0080]

You could make the case that we should take a large step forward this next year, or at the very minimum start to really show promise.   Gibson is in year 3. May, Santana, and Vargas are in year 2.  And our top four prospects (at least 4 of our top 5) could all crack the big league roster (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios).

 

If we play all our best cards and don't show promise of a contending team in 2 years, then I agree we are at the beginning.

 So if we aren't making progress in 6 seasons, we are at the beginning of the rebuild process?

 

I think you are mistaken.

 

If we aren't contending 6 years into a rebuilding process, we have failed in the rebuilding process.  I already argue that we have failed to do so already, but I understand some are more tolerant of losing than I am.

[tobi0040]

OK, just because you have a reason to do something doesn't make it a smart move.  The question always remains, is the easy move or is it the right move?  Are you doing it to win games or are you doing it to appease fans?  I agree that the Twins re-signed Mauer to appease fans, but that doesn't make it a smart move.  Where are the fans now that we have him, and are one of the worst teams in baseball?

 

Here is my two cents regarding this.  I think these are all truths.

 

1) I think in most these long term deals, the team knows on day 1 it is not going to look pretty towards the end.

 

2) The Twins would have been skewered for letting Mauer leave and Mauer's agent knew it.  So he took to the cleaners.

 

3) I think the Twins view mauer's salary as part marketing expense.  What portion I am not sure.  But he brings a ton of kids and women that probably would not otherwise follow the team.  My cousin was 10 years old and their family had a 20 game pack because she wanted to watch Chipper Jones at the tail end of his career.  She didnt really care that his OPS was in the low .800's instead of the 1.000 range it was for years.  Same could be said about Todd Helton, Derek Jeter, etc.

[tobi0040]

 So if we aren't making progress in 6 seasons, we are at the beginning of the rebuild process?

 

I think you are mistaken.

 

If we aren't contending 6 years into a rebuilding process, we have failed in the rebuilding process.  I already argue that we have failed to do so already, but I understand some are more tolerant of losing than I am.

 

I think if we deal all of our big cards and decidedly lose the hand without any promise....it has been a failure.  But Meyer, May, Buxton, Sano, and Berrios  need to fail before we know.

 

I asked you a very specific question and you failed to address it earlier (Terry Ryan still employed thread at 9:43 AM yesterday).  Please go back to my post about what specifically you would have done in 2012 differently than Terry Ryan that would have yielded contending team in 2014.  Given his prospects, a desire from ownership to cut payroll while they rebuild, etc.

 

It has been a painful four years.  But I think given where we were, no quicker path to contention existed. I would love to be proven wrong here. 

 

Could we have spent a little money in the short term and with the benefit of hindsight, signed every vet on a one year deal that turned out to work? Yes, that would have been extremely lucky, won more games, but not been a long term solution nor anything more than an expensive, aging .500 team blocking prospects.

[Platoon]

Maybe it's because we are closer to the daily workings of the Twins, but it seems they inevitably hang onto "dispensable" players too long. Whether you move a player has a lot to do with your teams present and future. A team like the Twins should have moved guys like Willingham. He fulfilled no need on a 90 loss team. Perkins? Do you need an elite closer in this situation? There are others. And I am not advocating trading everyone, just to clean house. But if you can identify a team who needs to fill a specific hole, make the trade. If the Twins truly are aiming to be contenders in '16, there will be quite a few different faces here. Or there will be no contention. You can name any member of the current Twins, and make an argument that they should not be dealt. And you would have a valid point. Unfortunately if you win all those arguments, the team will continue to lose. You might as well sell high, than just dump guys for PTBNL.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Perkins should be dealt.

[drjim]

I agree, Perkins should be dealt.

I also agree with this. Missed a chance to cash out an asset that wasn't needed in the immediate future.

 

People say the same thing for Willingham and Suzuki, but those markets were much smaller than people seem to realize. At some point you do need to fill out a team.

[bird]

 So if we aren't making progress in 6 seasons, we are at the beginning of the rebuild process?

 

I think you are mistaken.

 

If we aren't contending 6 years into a rebuilding process, we have failed in the rebuilding process.  I already argue that we have failed to do so already, but I understand some are more tolerant of losing than I am.

This is what I love about these threads!

 

So now, we've been rebuilding for six years? According to spy cake about two comments earlier, we were at five years. Let's get an auctioneer online. I bet we can get this sucker up to ten years before noon.

 

I know this sounds entirely unreasonable, but I'm sticking with it. After their first 90-loss debacle, they embarked on the rebuild. That means that, in my flawed mind, this off-season coming up will be the FOURTH off-season of the rebuild. Yes, the progress is unsatisfactory to almost everyone here. But to now count up to six years? What am I missing?

[Otto von Ballpark]

So now, we've been rebuilding for six years? According to spy cake about two comments earlier, we were at five years.

My 5 years comment was assuming that 2015 and 2016 are expected to be part of the rebuild, which certainly seems to be the case given where our prospects are and our reliance on those prospects.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

What is intriguing about the Cards is about who they jettisoned and who they kept.   Pujols, Freese and Craig are now gone - and in all cases nowhere near the players they were.  The fact that the team did not waste resources on a player past his prime (Pujols) or that they were able to get value back for another that was past his peak (Craig) speaks to how the team knows its talent well and does not allow loyalty stand in the way of success.   

 

Conversely, the Twins seem to have lost players who still have a lot of baseball left in them and brought back players that do not.   While it is hard to argue with the decision on Morneau.  Cuddyer and Hunter were players who had a lot of baseball in them, not to mention being outstanding leaders in the clubhouse.   Conversely, players like Pelfrey, Kubel, Bartlett, Capps and others were players clearly past their primes.   

 

The Twins need to do a better of job of knowing who to invest in and who to let go.  

[tobi0040]

My 5 years comment was assuming that 2015 and 2016 are expected to be part of the rebuild, which certainly seems to be the case given where our prospects are and our reliance on those prospects.

 

The other comical part is the following players will have played 1-3 seasons by 2016 and literally none of us has any clue if they will be all stars or complete busts.  Let's wait until we see these guys before we add the years to 2016 and call it a failure.

 

Buxton, Sano, Vargas, Meyer, May, Berrios, Gibson, Hicks, Rosario, Burdi, and Polanco.  Let's wait to see what we have here, in our 5 position players, 60% of the starting staff, and a closer

[Kwak]

Veterans only 'block" projects because the ballclub chooses to do so.

[bird]

This isn't the tail end of a rebuild.  It's closer to the beginning.

 

I personally think the Twins are at least 2 years behind on what should have been their rebuild. 

 

This is what has frustrated me the most about them in these losing years.  Not the fact that they've been losing, but the fact they've never embraced the term or philosophy of a "rebuild."  It's like a curse word to them, when it actually would have served them far better from a public relations standpoint.

 

It comes off to me like TR and everyone else thinks we're idiots.  You're team has lost 90+ games for four straight years now, guys. This is kindergarten level math...

This isn't closer to the beginning of their rebuild plan. You can logically argue that they could have rebuilt faster, though.

 

I look at two things that lead me to this conclusion. First, the roster has already turned over by 70%, and by this coming spring, there may be only 2-3 players that were here in 2010. Second, I see three, maybe four moves in total that make sense going into this off-season: a #2-3 starter, a 2-way corner OF, and a young catcher, maybe a BP arm I guess.

 

I'd suggest that complaining that the team doesn't want to use the term "rebuild" is a pretty minor quibble, especially in light of how honestly Ryan has been in telling us this won't be a fast fix. And I'm sorry Steve, but exactly who is treating whom like they're an idiot? I'm not trying to pick a fight here, but isn't it a tad condescending on your part to chastise the guys on their failure to grasp kindergarten math?

I really don't believe our intelligence is being insulted by them at all.

[bird]

My 5 years comment was assuming that 2015 and 2016 are expected to be part of the rebuild, which certainly seems to be the case given where our prospects are and our reliance on those prospects.

That makes sense.

[wavedog]

Regarding one way we could possbily emulate the Cardinals that was touched on was how they handle prospects - hard to quantify but maybe they have better teaching and coaching in their farm system and at the big league level?  That would not be the sole reason - they have drafted and developed more power arms than the Twins who only recently have embraced that philospohy.    One would have to look at the talent on the two teams and determine if the Cardinals talent is really that much better than the Twins or is it the fact they are making the most of the talent.  Possibly evidenced by players playing better when with the team than when going to other teams.     

[bird]

Regarding one way we could possbily emulate the Cardinals that was touched on was how they handle prospects - hard to quantify but maybe they have better teaching and coaching in their farm system and at the big league level?  That would not be the sole reason - they have drafted and developed more power arms than the Twins who only recently have embraced that philospohy.    One would have to look at the talent on the two teams and determine if the Cardinals talent is really that much better than the Twins or is it the fact they are making the most of the talent.  Possibly evidenced by players playing better when with the team than when going to other teams.     

Quantifying an organization's relative expertise at teaching and coaching prospects would be close to impossible. Of course, that won't stop someone who is hell-bent on promoting an agenda that the Twins are a poorly-run organization from generalizing that this is the case, and then using anecdotal examples to try to make a case.

 

My gut tells me that the range of capability regarding player development among the 30 teams is quite narrow, but still meaningful. I'd suggest that teams who are more reliant on their systems tend to invest more resources and pay more attention to it.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The Twins need to do a better of job of knowing who to invest in and who to let go.  

Yup.  They also have to do better in the draft at identifying power starting pitchers who won't kill you with their control and they have to do better at identifying free agents who best fit the team, the ballpark and the LEAGUE they play in.

 

All of this is easy to say, and all of this is what Mackey was trying to say (I think). But really, duh.  The Twins first need to identify HOW St. Louis is doing this, or WHY the Twins can't.  I don't know and St. Louis isn't going to spill company secrets, but this front office still can't emulate anything until they have a step-by-step blueprint.  If you weld a Cadillac hood ornament on a Kia, it's still just a Kia.

[Platoon]

I also agree with this. Missed a chance to cash out an asset that wasn't needed in the immediate future.

People say the same thing for Willingham and Suzuki, but those markets were much smaller than people seem to realize. At some point you do need to fill out a team.

They are smaller, and if it was just an isolated incidence, I would agree. Players like Suzuki, Dozier, and Escobar can at the best make us respectable. That's not really a long term strategy. The perfect example was Suzuki. He was signed as a stop gap mentor, got hot, and we treated him like Johnny Bench. The rationale that he would improve our pitching staff, did not materialize. Instead of trading him at the deadline at his highest value ever, he will be here into the next year, year and a half, and we will let him go for the legendary PTBNL. This will be Willingham déjà vu all over again!

[Steve Lein]

This isn't closer to the beginning of their rebuild plan. You can logically argue that they could have rebuilt faster, though.

 

...

 

 I'm not trying to pick a fight here, but isn't it a tad condescending on your part to chastise the guys on their failure to grasp kindergarten math?

 

I really don't believe our intelligence is being insulted by them at all.

 

I think it's closer to the beginning because their first failure came in 2011.  They thought they could go back to 2010-ish play in 2012.  After that season, they dealt Denard Span and Ben Revere for returns we're just starting to see.  You could argue this was the beginning but, and this just could be me, you're not really "rebuilding" your MLB team until the potential new core players of the next wave are replacing the ones in the majors who put you in this position to begin with.  So really to me it started with Oswaldo and Kyle Gibson.  And didn't come to full rebuild mode until Vargas, Santana, Polanco, and May of this year. 

 

I'd call it year 2, and I'd estimate a full rebuild into a playoff contender to take at a minimum 5 years if you do everything right, including cashing in current assets (like Willingham of 2012 and Perkins of last year or this year), which the Twins have flat out failed to do.

 

As for the second part, I'm not sure how you took that statement?  I'd rather TR just say "rebuilding," because we all know that's what they're doing.  If you look at 90+ losses for 4 straight seasons, there is literally no other conclusion you could come to so don't tell us otherwise, which I feel they've done. (it was a shot at the Twins FO, not posters here)

[gil4]

... J.D. Durbin ... amongst others still paying pro ball.

 

The Real Deal is still playing pro ball???

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Real Deal is still playing pro ball???

The Real Deal pitched this season in the Mexican League for Yucatan for 3 games with a 58.50 ERA... So... sort of?

[chopper0080]

This is what I love about these threads!

 

So now, we've been rebuilding for six years? According to spy cake about two comments earlier, we were at five years. Let's get an auctioneer online. I bet we can get this sucker up to ten years before noon.

 

I know this sounds entirely unreasonable, but I'm sticking with it. After their first 90-loss debacle, they embarked on the rebuild. That means that, in my flawed mind, this off-season coming up will be the FOURTH off-season of the rebuild. Yes, the progress is unsatisfactory to almost everyone here. But to now count up to six years? What am I missing?

So my comments were is response to this...

 

You could make the case that we should take a large step forward this next year, or at the very minimum start to really show promise.   Gibson is in year 3. May, Santana, and Vargas are in year 2.  And our top four prospects (at least 4 of our top 5) could all crack the big league roster (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios).

 

 

 

If we play all our best cards and don't show promise of a contending team in 2 years, then I agree we are at the beginning.

 

***

 

So, two years from now would be the end of the 2016 season.  I guess Dec 2011 - Dec 2016 would be 5 years not 6.

[James Richter]

Steve, I agree completely - the rebuild didn't really begin until the FO had accepted that they were never going to compete again with their late 2000s core. Replacing Cuddy, Kubel and Nathan after 2011 with Willingham, Revere and Perkins wasn't a sign of rebuilding so much as the (should be) normal year-to-year cleaning out of aging, overpriced assets for younger and/or cheaper alternatives. Trading Liriano, Span and Revere in the 2nd half of 2012 was, for me, the signal that the FO was looking to reinforce a new core which was mostly in the low minors. So, by my reckoning, we're somewhere around 2.5 years into the rebuild.

 

And we're already beginning to see results! Yes! In 2014 the Twins were outscored by 75 runs, a 50-run improvement over any of the previous 3 seasons. There has been a clear change of approach in drafting, favoring power arms at last. There have been more potential contributors drafted outside the first couple of rounds. The FO is old and set in its ways and is a plodding ship to get turned around. Slowly, we're seeing them change for the better. Resisting Suzuki-type extensions is the next domino I want to see fall - maybe the new manager can help them with that.

[chopper0080]

So, the best way to emulate the Cardinals is by building a competitive, veteran MLB team, and then incorporating your farm system as players prove they are ready, carving out roles for them, and not depending on them to succeed right away.

[Steve Lein]

 Slowly, we're seeing them change for the better. Resisting Suzuki-type extensions is the next domino I want to see fall - maybe the new manager can help them with that.

 

Yup.  This is the next thing that needs to change as it is also a piece of the puzzle to me as to why they're in this position.

[tobi0040]

So, the best way to emulate the Cardinals is by building a competitive, veteran MLB team, and then incorporating your farm system as players prove they are ready, carving out roles for them, and not depending on them to succeed right away.

 

They have not built a competitive veteran team and then incorporated their farm system.  That is not an accurate depiction of what they have done.

 

Of their five pitchers by IP, none has pitched a single inning at the MLB level for another team.  Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, and Martinez. 

 

Of their seven top offensive players by WAR, only 2 (Peralta and Holiday)  have played an inning outside their MLB organization.  The rest, Carpenter, Jay, Molina, Adams, and Wong have only played for them.

 

If the Twins compete in the next 2-3 years, this model is likely to be almost the same as the Cardinals. A majority of home grown talent supplemented with a few signings. 

 

This thread is getting carrier away.