The Twins and Their Supposed "Outfield Depth"

[Alex]

For anyone doubting Hicks, take a look at Denard Span's numbers in New Britain. Hicks looks to be Span with more power, less contact, and better all-around defense.

I wondered when someone would bring him up. Span's an anamoly. Most players don't put up better numbers in the majors than they do in the minors, though he seemed to figure things out at AAA.

[Alex]

Prospects/young non-prospects:

 

AAA: Ramirez, and at some point this year (again . . .) Benson and Tosoni

AA: Hicks, Herrmann (as 4th/5th OF on top of catching), and eventually Arcia

A+: Morales, Ortiz, Ray, Rams

A-: JD Williams, Leachman, Roberts

Below: Byron Buxton, Dereck Rodriguez

 

I still consider this overall OF depth.

I guess I consider that minor league depth or prospect depth, not overall organizational depth. When all the true talent/hope is below AA and just drafted, there's a lot that can happen between now and then, as we've seen with Benson and Hicks. There's not a single player there that we can project to be a legitimate starter in the next two years.

[jokin]

I guess I consider that minor league depth or prospect depth, not overall organizational depth. When all the true talent/hope is below AA and just drafted, there's a lot that can happen between now and then, as we've seen with Benson and Hicks. There's not a single player there that we can project to be a legitimate starter in the next two years.

I concur (although Benson and Hicks could very well see some time as "tryout" starters in 2014, depending on who stays and who goes), and posted in this thread at #20 that 2015 is when the Twins think the "new era" will commence. Between then and now, I can guess more of the same status quo, keep-it-palatable-to-the-public, PR games from management.

[Thrylos]

Prospects/young non-prospects:

 

AAA: Ramirez, and at some point this year (again . . .) Benson and Tosoni

AA: Hicks, Herrmann (as 4th/5th OF on top of catching), and eventually Arcia

A+: Morales, Ortiz, Ray, Rams

A-: JD Williams, Leachman, Roberts

Below: Byron Buxton, Dereck Rodriguez

 

I still consider this overall OF depth.

Got to add Adam Bret Walker II there some place, Max Keppel and I would argue maybe even Sano. There is a 17 year old kid in the Dominican called Junior Amarante who is another name to know from there. Danny Santana and Jairo Perez have both been playing a bit in the OF at Fort Myers, and Rosario is around in Beloit. so the Twins have some options.

 

 

About the Revere discussion. Revere has been hitting .307/.337/.409 a pretty respectable .746 OPS (109 OPS+) that is actually higher than Span's And he has been playing better than Span lately and his glove is better than Span's. I would absolutely not mind if here replaces Span at this point, if the latter brings something (SP) back. Revere came back from AAA changed. Hope Parmelee is too...

[Riverbrian]

Compared to other teams... The Twins DO NOT have OF depth.

 

Compared to the Current Pitching in the Twins Organization... The OF is the Mariana Trench.

 

If you guys want to be all sensible and point out that the Twins actually don't have OF depth... Well Damn You... you are completely crushing our dreams... Give us some hope please.

 

Without a doubt...OF is our deepest position organizationally. Actually OF depth would be 2nd in the organization.

 

1st would be Fox North Girls... We seem to have a bunch of those cuz we can toss others aside like Bobby Abreu.

[roger]

No one talks about something Revere brings to the Twins that I believe is very important...energy! Some combination of that smile and speed just seems to get things happening. I don't know if anyone else agrees, but I see the Twins winning more when he is in the lineup every day. Not necessarily the offensive numbers and certainly not the arm, but he just brings added energy that makes the game more fun which seems to lead to more wins.

[Dilligaf69]

I long ago decided the only way to rid myself of Souhan loathing was to stop reading him, so I did. I am cleansed.

 

I tend to agree on most of his articles but the thing that got me about this article in particular was that he criticized the Twins front office for making bad trades or at least not getting value in return...and yes he's right for the most part. Then he suggest we sell high which OK don't disagree with that either but then he goes onto say something like they should trade Liriano if he continues to go well but they should trade him if he does'nt???? Can't have it both ways Jim you want then to get value in return but trade players for the sake of trading them. IDK that's the way I read it.....anyway he's more or less a bore to read...never anything earth shattering.

[Thrylos]

No one talks about something Revere brings to the Twins that I believe is very important...energy! Some combination of that smile and speed just seems to get things happening. I don't know if anyone else agrees, but I see the Twins winning more when he is in the lineup every day. Not necessarily the offensive numbers and certainly not the arm, but he just brings added energy that makes the game more fun which seems to lead to more wins.

Totally agree. And the Twins' as an organization unfortunately do not value that. Look at the energy their manager brings. Then look at the energy that someone like GoGo brought and you know what happened with him.... for some strange reason these Twins like low key robotic type of guys. They call that "professional"

[CDog]

Totally agree. And the Twins' as an organization unfortunately do not value that. Look at the energy their manager brings. Then look at the energy that someone like GoGo brought and you know what happened with him.... for some strange reason these Twins like low key robotic type of guys. They call that "professional"

That's probably why you never hear anyone involved with the Twins mention Puckett. And I'm sure Hrbek's number was retired because of how "professional" he was. Certainly they would never overpay (according to many) or overplay (according to many) someone like Punto who was all energy. And they sure shipped Cuddyer and his smile and his hustle off as quickly as they could. And nobody but nobody got fewer chances than the probably-under-ready Carlos Gomez who absolutely did NOT play the same position as someone who was, you know, better.

[Alex]

 

 

About the Revere discussion. Revere has been hitting .307/.337/.409 a pretty respectable .746 OPS (109 OPS+) that is actually higher than Span's And he has been playing better than Span lately and his glove is better than Span's. I would absolutely not mind if here replaces Span at this point, if the latter brings something (SP) back. Revere came back from AAA changed. Hope Parmelee is too...

I definitely hope Revere's done something that has changed his swing definitively and he's going to hit for a higher average and keep getting extra base hits, and it definitely looks like it's possible, but we do have to be leery of a small sample size at least for the moment with him (I assume I don't need to quote the number of players who looked good for a small sample size this year, earning them a spot, only to find out they weren't ready).

 

As for Revere's defense, I don't think there can be much doubt that he'll be a fielder with better range than Span, but that arm has been getting run on like crazy.

[Montecore]

Souhan is wrong as usual. There's never any rigor to his argument. "Span is a wonderful guy. Get rid of him." Cheap, fatuous cynicism. That's his raison d'etre.

[Scheherezade]

Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?

[Montecore]

Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?

That bunt hit he got last night was a beaut.

[Shane Wahl]

That bunt hit he got last night was a beaut.

Well no it wasn't a beaut at all. He just runs really fast.

 

But Revere's performance this year has been fantastic.

[Alex]

Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?

Obviously not, and if he continues to hit this way, then that changes the discussion a bit. However, it's only 92 AB. As mentioned I hope it's indictative of actual improvement and not due to small sample size. As eluded to, the Twins judged Parmelee on a similar sample size that included Spring Training and a short debut and he clearly wasn't ready. Dozier's big league potential at the plate was evaluated based on a season at AA (age 24 no less).

 

So, while I'm definitely excited about how Revere is doing, he hasn't done enough to prove yet, IMO, that he's turned it around enough to be an MLB regular starter. Nor, in the context of this discussion, does success over 100 ABs suddenly alter the idea that the Twins have depth at OF.

[Alex]

Souhan is wrong as usual. There's never any rigor to his argument. "Span is a wonderful guy. Get rid of him." Cheap, fatuous cynicism. That's his raison d'etre.

Ironically, I'm often critical of him for just the opposite, he focuses too much on the character of a player (Cuddyer, Slowey, Dozier) as a condition for which we should keep/move them. But, yes, he definitely lacks rigor on a regular basis.

[one_eyed_jack]

Ironically, I'm often critical of him for just the opposite, he focuses too much on the character of a player (Cuddyer, Slowey, Dozier) as a condition for which we should keep/move them. But, yes, he definitely lacks rigor on a regular basis.

---What's also interesting is that while that's consistently an issue for Souhan with the Twins (and in all fairness, he has a point on Slowey), he's completely the opposite on the T-Wolves. Every other month he writes a column railing on David Kahn for not drafting DeMarcus Cousins that includes a rant about how his talent justifies having to deal with his character issues.

[ashbury]

Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?

Rickey Henderson brought all that plus power. There's nothing wrong with starting a game ahead 1-0. And the threat of power brings more walks, boosting the OBP that your leadoff hitter thrives on.

 

If Revere is able to maintain this pace for his batting average then obviously he's an asset. If he drops to .279 then he's really not, whereas a more complete hitter like Henderson remained an asset (and then some) with his lifetime .279. I hope Revere can do it. It's rare to hit .326 in the majors, but it would be cool if he can be one of the few.

[CharacterGroove]

I didn't read Souhan's article, but I agree with his premise as stated on this thread.

 

The Twins do have good outfield depth to replace Denard Span.

 

Of course, that statement makes certain assumptions that are certainly debatable. One, it assumes that Revere can replace Span's center field and lead off contributions. I firmly believe he can. Second, it assumes that right field will be at least as good without Revere. I think it can be.

 

So, instead of:

 

LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee

CF: Span/Revere/Mastroianni

RF: Revere/Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni

 

The Twins would have:

 

LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee

CF: Revere/Mastroianni

RF: Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni/[Arcia?]

[CharacterGroove]

Obviously not, and if he continues to hit this way, then that changes the discussion a bit. However, it's only 92 AB. As mentioned I hope it's indictative of actual improvement and not due to small sample size. As eluded to, the Twins judged Parmelee on a similar sample size that included Spring Training and a short debut and he clearly wasn't ready. Dozier's big league potential at the plate was evaluated based on a season at AA (age 24 no less).

 

So, while I'm definitely excited about how Revere is doing, he hasn't done enough to prove yet, IMO, that he's turned it around enough to be an MLB regular starter. Nor, in the context of this discussion, does success over 100 ABs suddenly alter the idea that the Twins have depth at OF.

The sample size is much greater than 92 ABs. Without even looking at his impressive minor league numbers, he got 400+ ABs as a 23-year-old rookie. Now, the numbers weren't all that great, but they were certainly something that coaches expect to built upon. Which he's done so far.

[Alex]

The sample size is much greater than 92 ABs. Without even looking at his impressive minor league numbers, he got 400+ ABs as a 23-year-old rookie. Now, the numbers weren't all that great, but they were certainly something that coaches expect to built upon. Which he's done so far.

I agree, the sample size is much bigger, but as you mentioned it isn't good when you include those other 400. My point was the sample size of his success is small.

 

As for other thoughts, for Revere to equal Span's contributions at leadoff, he has to hit around .330 unless he starts taking more walks.

 

Plouffe , Mastroianni, Parmelee in right (if Span is traded) don't really equal a quality MLB starter unless they get significantly better.

[jokin]

 

The Twins do have good outfield depth to replace Denard Span.

 

Of course, that statement makes certain assumptions that are certainly debatable. One, it assumes that Revere can replace Span's center field and lead off contributions. I firmly believe he can. Second, it assumes that right field will be at least as good without Revere. I think it can be.

 

 

 

The Twins would have:

 

LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee

CF: Revere/Mastroianni

RF: Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni/[Arcia?]

Your proposed depth chart belies your opening declarative supposition. Leaving the Twins with only one proven full-time ML outfielder (Willingham) and "belief" and "assumptions" about your starting CF and RF usually cost a GM his job, if those beliefs and assumptions don't work out (Revere DOES look better the third time out, but it's probably too soon to dump Span with his team-friendly contract without a great haul in return-of-trade). In addition, it appear the Twins are headed in the direction of using Plouffe and Doumit in other more primary roles, and neither are good defensively in the OF. Mastroianni is a defensive replacement/PR 4th/5th OF, at best and Parmelee might morph into Kubel at some point, but still relies on belief and assumption in the short-term, looking out this and next season. I like fast-tracking Arcia, but you'd still be heavy on belief and assumption.

[CharacterGroove]

Your proposed depth chart belies your opening declarative supposition. Leaving the Twins with only one proven full-time ML outfielder (Willingham) and "belief" and "assumptions" about your starting CF and RF usually cost a GM his job, if those beliefs and assumptions don't work out (Revere DOES look better the third time out, but it's probably too soon to dump Span with his team-friendly contract without a great haul in return-of-trade). In addition, it appear the Twins are headed in the direction of using Plouffe and Doumit in other more primary roles, and neither are good defensively in the OF. Mastroianni is a defensive replacement/PR 4th/5th OF, at best and Parmelee might morph into Kubel at some point, but still relies on belief and assumption in the short-term, looking out this and next season. I like fast-tracking Arcia, but you'd still be heavy on belief and assumption.

Being that we're prognosticating on future events, I'm comfortable making assumptions and statements based on belief. For instance, I'm assuming Span will not fall into a tailspin and end up with numbers like in 2010 and 2011 - mediocre at best. Projections go both ways. If you want to have a conversation void of assumptions and beliefs, and just stick to the hard numbers, start a thread about the 2011 Twins.

 

I'm also not making any suggestion that we should "dump" Denard Span. I'm not even sure why that's a point of discussion. The entire point is about getting a great "return-of-trade" in the context of the Twins' strengths and weaknesses. It's my position - and apparently Souhan's - that the Twins have good outfield depth as it applies to their 40-man roster. What the Twins do not have is good starting pitching.

 

As I mentioned, it's certainly debatable but I believe that Revere is good replacement for Span in centerfield and the combination of Plouffe/Doumit/Parmelee can adequately replace Revere in right. I do not think the Twins are better in the outfield without Denard Span, of course, but that's how trading works. The other team wants value too. The goal is to have a better team (either in the short or long term - or both), not a better outfield.

[jokin]

Being that we're prognosticating on future events, I'm comfortable making assumptions and statements based on belief. For instance, I'm assuming Span will not fall into a tailspin and end up with numbers like in 2010 and 2011 - mediocre at best. Projections go both ways. If you want to have a conversation void of assumptions and beliefs, and just stick to the hard numbers, start a thread about the 2011 Twins.

 

I'm also not making any suggestion that we should "dump" Denard Span. I'm not even sure why that's a point of discussion. The entire point is about getting a great "return-of-trade" in the context of the Twins' strengths and weaknesses. It's my position - and apparently Souhan's - that the Twins have good outfield depth as it applies to their 40-man roster. What the Twins do not have is good starting pitching.

 

As I mentioned, it's certainly debatable but I believe that Revere is good replacement for Span in centerfield and the combination of Plouffe/Doumit/Parmelee can adequately replace Revere in right. I do not think the Twins are better in the outfield without Denard Span, of course, but that's how trading works. The other team wants value too. The goal is to have a better team (either in the short or long term - or both), not a better outfield.

Agree with most of your reasonable conclusions, but the point of Souhan's article is based on the erroneous assumption that the Twins possess OF depth. It's fairly demonstrable that they do not. Again, Plouffe and Doumit appear destined to be playing large roles elsewhere (and the Twins must re-sign Doumit) and Parmelee is a big question mark, it might take him 2+ seasons to firmly establish himself in RF, and there's a good chance a trade for Morneau occurs, leaving 1B open.

[Shane Wahl]

Doumit is going to seek money and years. Chris Herrmann may be able to fulfill much of his role (so hopefully they get around to promoting him to Rochester very soon instead of stalling on him). Doumit may be a trade candidate. Plouffe is hopefully making Danny Valencia irrelevant. So RF is still a question mark. Benson and Tosoni were DEMOTED. The system has some OF depth, but the Twins strictly as the MLB team do not.

[Thrylos]

Doumit is going to seek money and years. Chris Herrmann may be able to fulfill much of his role (so hopefully they get around to promoting him to Rochester very soon instead of stalling on him). .

100% agreed. JR Towles is hitting a Buteresque .193/.242/.295 at Rochester and he needs to go. Promote Herrmann to AAA, Pinto to AA, Koch to Fort Myers, add one of the EST Cs to Beloit (Quintera?) and call it a day.

[CharacterGroove]

Agree with most of your reasonable conclusions, but the point of Souhan's article is based on the erroneous assumption that the Twins possess OF depth. It's fairly demonstrable that they do not. Again, Plouffe and Doumit appear destined to be playing large roles elsewhere (and the Twins must re-sign Doumit) and Parmelee is a big question mark, it might take him 2+ seasons to firmly establish himself in RF, and there's a good chance a trade for Morneau occurs, leaving 1B open.

Some fair points. My reply is that your conclusion is only demonstrable if you assume the destinies of Plouffe and Doumit and assume that Parmelee does not improve on his Spring 2012 form. You may be right. Going beyond this year, it also assumes the growth of our top outfield prospects. It's possible I'm just much more optimistic than you about our outfield options moving forward.

[Alex]

Some fair points. My reply is that your conclusion is only demonstrable if you assume the destinies of Plouffe and Doumit and assume that Parmelee does not improve on his Spring 2012 form. You may be right. Going beyond this year, it also assumes the growth of our top outfield prospects. It's possible I'm just much more optimistic than you about our outfield options moving forward.

 

Nothing wrong with being optimistic.

 

My perspective,though, was that these players haven't shown evidence (except in very small stretches) that there is reason to. Taking a look at their development, they don't have the same record that potential ML OF show in the minors. In fact, most of their limited success in the minors has come when they are more experienced than the competition. Until one of them shows that they have made some significant change, the Twins can't pretend they have even a single future starting caliber OF of the bunch.

 

BTW, the minor point regarding Souhan's comment was that he believed Span should be traded due to outfield depth.

 

So, my point is that if any decisions are made now about perceived outfield depth, those decisions are being made far to hastily.

 

Hope that makes sense.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins are in Dire Straits. We have a rebuilt bullpen that is doing alright and yet no one has faith in it. The pitching rotation is being led Diamond and Walters. A pair who have been cast aside by other clubs... The other guys have been inconsisentant at best or downright terrible.

 

On offense we have a couple of superstars who get injured frequently. An infield is led by a 38 year old journeyman... The 185th ranked prospect at SS and a kid out of options that was recently hitting .120 something before his recent resurgence.

 

Look at the team... Willingham, Span and Revere is the best thing happening on the MLB Twins. Down on the farm, our highest rated prospects are outfielders. 3 out of the top 6 are outfielders yet none of them are top 60 in ranking. The one guy we have that is near the top ten in Sano Is years off from helping and projected to a possible move to the OF and our 2nd pick overall is a Projected Eric Davis type OF.

 

If you polled 30 General managers and asked them where the Twins organization was the strongest 28 of them would say OF. 1 of them would break out into a laughing fit at the consideration of the question and the other would decline to participate because he is currently running the Twins and doing a price check on a physician to help him with his growing ulcer caused by the fact that the Twins have no depth anywhere.

 

I'm a Span Fan but if he can fetch anything that will turn this ship around. Away he should go for a good package of players. If no trade like that is possible... He's welcome to stay but it won't matter WITHOUT pitching. Trade Span and give Carson a spin for awhile... It won't matter without PITCHING.

 

We don't have depth anywhere... Not even close but OF is as deep as we can get. People can talk about keeping Span and wouldn't it be nice but I hope to God someone in the front office is getting really serious about bringing some serious arms into the organization.

 

Its hard to do because everyone wants pitching. It will take a Span to get some potential pitching and thats about all we got right now.

[striker_86]

I love span, the guy can hit, and draws a lot of walks. He is solid in center. You gotta think that some teams would be interested in that. Maybe a contender who needs a leadoff guy. Kind of like the Shannon Stewart trade for the twins in 03.