Article: Is Joe Mauer hurt or just slumping?

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?534-Is-Joe-Mauer-hurt-or-just-slumping

[Shane Wahl]

Every other time I would say, "he's hurt" but this time I think he is in a slump. I guess there is the combination option--he has played a bit too much for a still-majority catcher. A few more days off would have been helpful.

[Shane Wahl]

Doumit catching 2 out of every three games for a few weeks is not going to ruin this team any further. Maybe Doumit does that with Mauer at 1B for two weeks. Big deal. No Butera needed.

[Nick Nelson]

There's a frightening third option: that Mauer's numerous physical ailments have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter. I'm hoping this is not the case but the possibility cannot be ignored. His GB/FB ratios over the past couple seasons have been hugely inflated from previous career norms...

[Shane Wahl]

There's a frightening third option: that Mauer's numerous physical ailments have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter. I'm hoping this is not the case but the possibility cannot be ignored. His GB/FB ratios over the past couple seasons have been hugely inflated from previous career norms...

But wouldn't the line drive rate be a sign against this? I still think he is going to homer more than most expect this year, but to do so does require some rest!

[Guest USAFChief]

At the same time, if the team wants to ensure that he is available throughout the duration of the season, they may need to sit him a little more regularly than they have been doing up to this point.

 

There is another option.

[Shane Wahl]

At the same time, if the team wants to ensure that he is available throughout the duration of the season, they may need to sit him a little more regularly than they have been doing up to this point.

 

There is another option.

What? Moving him to 3B?

[Grady Kruse]

Thank you for finally pointing this out. He's definitely been hurt and you can see it in his swing. We need to find him a permanent new position. This is getting ridiculous.

[twinswon1991]

Maybe he is off the juice? He pulled the greatest power spike outside of Brady Anderson right before his big payday and ever since he is back to being an excellent line drive hitter with no pop. If he were on any other team, we would be laughing and saying said team was screwed by a juicer who pumped up his stats to get the big payay and then quit when the stats were no longer needed.

 

With Mauer's contract, if he is a 5-7 hr a year 3B or 1B his contract will be easily the worst in baseball. You could sign a Casey Kotchman for $500k to give you that sort of production at 1B. HE MUST CATCH FULL TIME TO EVEN COME CLOSE TO HAVING ANY VALUE.

[Mike Sixel]

Can we stop the ridiculous hall of fame talk now?

[Top Gun]

It's only the 2nd week of May.

[whydidnt]

I don't think he's been over-used at C so far this year. He's started less than 1/2 the games there. I sure hope it's just a slump, if not in a couple years, we could be comparing him to guys like Zito, Wells and Soriano for the worst contract ever. And yes, he has to be a regular catcher for the Twins to get full value from him. If he's not catching his bat doesn't justify the huge payday. I think both he and the Twins know that, too. Anyway, let's hope he starts turning some of those grounders to 2nd into line drives. I wonder if there are any stats that show his batting line with or without Mourneau in the lineup. It seems to me that he hits better with Mourneau in the lineup, but that's just a huge guess based upon my probably shaded memory. I still would like to see him take a hack at some of those first pitch fastballs he always lays off, too!

[gunnarthor]

There's a frightening third option: that Mauer's numerous physical ailments have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter. I'm hoping this is not the case but the possibility cannot be ignored. His GB/FB ratios over the past couple seasons have been hugely inflated from previous career norms...

Yeah, that's my fear, too.

[Boom Boom]

The correct answer is both - Mauer is hurt, AND he's slumping.

[Alex]

I've mentioned this elsewhere, but I'm highly concerned that last year the organization's awful communication about his injuries as well as the media's criticism of him last season led to the fanbase turning against him. That monster is now well out of control and has led to unreal expectations for him regarding reasonable playing time and playing while hurt. Additionally, from those same areas there have been expectations about power hitting and leadership that just don't seem to be who Joe Mauer is, but is expected to develop into simply because the Twins gave him a big contract, as if money were wishes.

 

This environment, including the the team losing, may likely be leading both the Twins an Mauer Into making poor decisions that aren't going to help him be as effective as he can be.

[cr9617]

I don't think he's been over-used at C so far this year. He's started less than 1/2 the games there. I sure hope it's just a slump, if not in a couple years, we could be comparing him to guys like Zito, Wells and Soriano for the worst contract ever. And yes, he has to be a regular catcher for the Twins to get full value from him. If he's not catching his bat doesn't justify the huge payday. I think both he and the Twins know that, too. Anyway, let's hope he starts turning some of those grounders to 2nd into line drives. I wonder if there are any stats that show his batting line with or without Mourneau in the lineup. It seems to me that he hits better with Mourneau in the lineup, but that's just a huge guess based upon my probably shaded memory. I still would like to see him take a hack at some of those first pitch fastballs he always lays off, too!

We don't have to wait a couple of years to call this one of the worst contracts ever.

[Gernzy]

I'm really hopeing it's just a slump. Would hate to see things get worse for him.

[Grady Kruse]

We need to get him back to hitting .330. He has no value catching if he can only hit .270 while doing so. I agree the contract was based on him catching, but he has proven his body cannot handle it.

[whydidnt]

We don't have to wait a couple of years to call this one of the worst contracts ever.

Well, I have to disagree. If he starts hitting like he did in 2010 while catching 70% of the games, it will be a fair contract for both sides. I think a lot of people underestimate how valuable it is to have a catcher that can both hit and play decent defense. It's a rare breed and allows you to have a no-hit good field guy somewhere else in the lineup without taking an hit compared to other teams.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, if Mauer hits like the best player in baseball, this contract is fair. Given that he's only done that 1 year, that seems unlikely, though, right?

[whydidnt]

Agreed, if Mauer hits like the best player in baseball, this contract is fair. Given that he's only done that 1 year, that seems unlikely, though, right?

Actually, he didn't hit like the best player in baseball in 2010. He was good, but had similar seasons in 2006 and 2008 and was pretty good in 2007 too. In 2009 he it like the best player in baseball. He's been very good every year he's been healthy, about 5 or 6 years by my count. That's what they are paying for and I'm hoping that's what they get. It's way too early to judge the contract as one of the worst ever based upon just 1+ season of play.

[cr9617]

You gotta love that Hometown Premium!

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry, was off by a year, it's been a long week.....I do agree, we can't judge the contract yet with certainty. But, I think it is reasonable to assume it's not good....

[cr9617]

Well, I have to disagree. If he starts hitting like he did in 2010 while catching 70% of the games, it will be a fair contract for both sides. I think a lot of people underestimate how valuable it is to have a catcher that can both hit and play decent defense. It's a rare breed and allows you to have a no-hit good field guy somewhere else in the lineup without taking an hit compared to other teams.

You need to get your mind around just how overpaid he really is. He's transitioning away from playing catcher. A high average, no power first baseman or DH isn't worth 23 mil per year. Not even close. His numbers in 2010 were good, but not elite. He's being paid like an elite player, but he doesn't produce like one. If the Yanks or Boston or one of the other big market clubs makes this deal, it's easier for them to absorb the contract if it doesn't work out. The fact that it's the Twins that signed this deal(24% of their payroll), compounds just how bad this contract really is.

 

He's untradeable

He playing less and less catcher

His power isn't developing, it's diminishing

To a lesser degree, he has practically zero leadership qualities.

 

There is only 1 way for the Twins to get value from this contract...and that's for Mauer to produce like 09, and continue to play catcher as long as possible. Does anyone really think that's going to happen?

[whydidnt]

You need to get your mind around just how overpaid he really is. He's transitioning away from playing catcher. A high average, no power first baseman or DH isn't worth 23 mil per year. Not even close. His numbers in 2010 were good, but not elite. He's being paid like an elite player, but he doesn't produce like one. If the Yanks or Boston or one of the other big market clubs makes this deal, it's easier for them to absorb the contract if it doesn't work out. The fact that it's the Twins that signed this deal(24% of their payroll), compounds just how bad this contract really is.

 

He's untradeable

He playing less and less catcher

His power isn't developing, it's diminishing

To a lesser degree, he has practically zero leadership qualities.

 

There is only 1 way for the Twins to get value from this contract...and that's for Mauer to produce like 09, and continue to play catcher as long as possible. Does anyone really think that's going to happen?

Well most of your points have flavor or accuracy, but I don't think we really know about the leadership, since none of us are in the locker room, and really what difference does it make? Where I disagree is that I don't think he has to hit like 2009, but more like 08 or 10 to make the contract viable IF he catches. It's too early to tell if that will happen, if it doesn't, then you're right, but I don't think that's a guaranty. I tend to think the 5+ years we saw of him hitting well are a better indicator of his talent than the last 1+ year. AND I do complain about his performance from time to time and do think he could some things differently to improve. He needs to start adjusting or it's more likely you'll be right. I just hope you're not.

 

I don't know if you're among the crowd, but most of the state would have been in a huge uproar if the Twins hadn't re-signed him and let him go the year they were opening a new stadium. Twins were in a hard spot and Mauer's agent did what he was supposed to do and got a great contract for his player.

[Alex]

Sorry, was off by a year, it's been a long week.....I do agree, we can't judge the contract yet with certainty. But, I think it is reasonable to assume it's not good....

Most multi-year 20 million plus contracts aren't going to be good, especially for their entire duration. Some of the best players in baseball have signed contracts like Mauer's (A Rod, Pujols) and no one really thought they were good contracts to start, but it's what the demand was for that player.

 

Interestingly, according to Fangraphs player value, Mauer has been worth 22.2M or more in 4 seasons 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2010. For comparison, only Morneau's 2010 reached even 20M in value while a hitter like Pujols, ie the best in baseball, had several seasons in the 30M range.

[Alex]

Well most of your points have flavor or accuracy, but I don't think we really know about the leadership, since none of us are in the locker room, and really what difference does it make? Where I disagree is that I don't think he has to hit like 2009, but more like 08 or 10 to make the contract viable IF he catches. It's too early to tell if that will happen, if it doesn't, then you're right, but I don't think that's a guaranty..

This is exactly correct. Mauer was worth 35M in 2009 while in 2008 and 2010 were in the mid 20s. If he plays less catcher that would change, obviously.

[Mike Sixel]

But WAR and player value do not occur in a vacuum....right? Each player is part of a portfolio of assets, not an isolated thing. Also, what would that value be if he was DH/1B, and not catcher?

 

And, agreed, most long term contracts don't return value every year. I don't think people are asking for that. I think they are asking to never look at Fangraphs, and to see three AL Central catchers with more WAR, one forth (give or take) of the way through the year. Rightly or wrongly.....no one wants to see that.

[twinsnorth49]

To a lesser degree, he has practically zero leadership qualities.

Proof please? You know Joe Mauer? Wow, where did you meet him? Do you guys like , hang out and stuff?

 

Someone was going to pay Mauer that money, if the Twins didn't everyone would have cried how cheap the Twins are, kind of like this year when they dropped payroll. Get over it, crying about it now is sour grapes and just the way it rolls sometimes, spilled milk as they say (two food analogies in one sentence).

[cr9617]

Proof please? You know Joe Mauer? Wow, where did you meet him? Do you guys like , hang out and stuff?

 

Someone was going to pay Mauer that money, if the Twins didn't everyone would have cried how cheap the Twins are, kind of like this year when they dropped payroll. Get over it, crying about it now is sour grapes and just the way it rolls sometimes, spilled milk as they say (two food analogies in one sentence).

He's the anti-Kirby Pucket, and you know it. There's a reason he's called Clueless Joe. It's been pretty well documented, in the papers, on the radio, etc... that those qualities are not part of his offering.

 

He's the quiet, nice boy next door.

 

Lesser players were left to explain the teams struggles last year. Joe was nowhere to be found, and couldn't figure out what all the fuss was about.

 

Yep, someone else would have paid Mauer, and the Twins(in hindsight) would be better off. The thing is, knowing how he is, and how he handles the press...there is no way he could hack it NY, or Boston, or Chicago, or Philly. Think what they would have done to him if he was in NY last year....