Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 2

[John Kelsey]

Well this is just......strange

[nicksaviking]

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 683]

Player

era

app-gs

ip

h

er

bb

so

hr

ab

b/avg

Reed, Jake

1.95

31-0

37.0

22

8

15

34

1

121

.182

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Hmmm, and this one doesn't even carry a 9.0 K/9 as a college closer?

[jokin]

I'm wondering why the Twins passed on Dustin DeMuth? Left-hand hitting infielder from Indiana.

[nicksaviking]

I'm wondering why the Twins passed on Dustin DeMuth? Left-hand hitting infielder from Indiana.

 

He's been dead to me since he told Ryan to screw off last year. I'm pretty sure that was a direct quote.

 

Please tell me that you can pay closers you pick in the first 5 rounds way underslot.

[cmb0252]

One of the deepest HS pitcher drafts in years and not only do we not have a single one but 4 college RPers in 5 picks. I'm sure they will try and convert several of these guys into starters which hasn't been successful in the past.

[cmb0252]

He's been dead to me since he told Ryan to screw off last year. I'm pretty sure that was a direct quote.

 

Please tell me that you can pay closers you pick in the first 5 rounds way underslot.

 

I don't believe any of these guys will come much, if any, under slot.

[Willihammer]

Hmmm, and this one doesn't even carry a 9.0 K/9 as a college closer?

 

He's maybe the 4th or 5th best reliever on the Ducks, just by peripherals. Sort of a head scratcher to me too

[PseudoSABR]

One of the deepest HS pitcher drafts in years and not only do we not have a single one but 4 college RPers in 5 picks. I'm sure they will try and convert several of these guys into starters which hasn't been successful in the past.

Clearly, the Twins believe the current market is greatly undervaluing college-relief-power arms. The consistency seems to demonstrate conviction. I wonder if the Twins put emphasis on pitchers who have thrown limited innings.

 

Wasn't the health of guys like Chargois, Bard, Melotakis already in question? This year's guys have been fairly healthy from my cursory research.

 

I'm not sure their thinking will work out, but I like the conviction towards velocity and counter-market strategies. Hopefully they learned with the last group of college bullpen guys, and have a better development plan and selected better guys.

[Willihammer]

Its only 3 picks. Maybe guys are falling off the board such that there's always a college reliever on the top of their board?

[Too Much Twins]

how about james norwood for the 6th round?

[nicksaviking]

Its only 3 picks. Maybe guys are falling off the board such that there's always a college reliever on the top of their board?

 

I suspect this is happneing. However at some point you do have to stray from your draft board. I can't imagine an NFL team picking 7 QB's. Though it might have been a wise move for the Vikings.

[cmb0252]

Clearly, the Twins believe the current market is greatly undervaluing college-relief-power arms. I wonder if the Twins put emphasis on pitchers who have thrown limited innings.

 

Wasn't the health of guys like Chargois, Bard, Melotakis already in question? These guys have been fairly healthy from my cursory research.

 

I'm not sure there thinking will work out, but I like the conviction towards velocity and trying counter-market strategies. Hopefully they learned with the last group of college bullpen guys, and have a better development plan and selected better guys.

 

I could live with 1 or 2 "safe" relief pitcher arms in the first 5 rounds but 4?Once again if there was a strong history of college RPer success in the bigs it would be a big deal. Last year was such a balanced draft and this one has been the opposite.

[jokin]

I don't believe any of these guys will come much, if any, under slot.

 

The Twins must think differently, a true value play.

 

One thing is certain, there's going to be a huge hole in terms of quality position players at the lower levels of the minor league program for the next few years- so they must really be certain about the top position prospects in Ft Myers right now, plus Gordon, Sano, Buxton and Vargas and Santana to really come through.

[Willihammer]

Sam Clay: 38 h, 29 BB, 64 K, 0 HR, .197 BAA, only 1 XBH allowed in 57.0 IP

[jokin]

He's been dead to me since he told Ryan to screw off last year. I'm pretty sure that was a direct quote.

 

Please tell me that you can pay closers you pick in the first 5 rounds way underslot.

 

But where else was DeMuth going to go? He has virtually no leverage right now. At worst he could have been a trade sweetener if the personalities continued to clash.

[Dman]

Its only 3 picks. Maybe guys are falling off the board such that there's always a college reliever on the top of their board?

 

That was my thinking for the second and third round picks as both were mentioned as going in the first round at times this year. Seemed like possible value picks and power arms are typically hard to come by. Picks four and five don't strike me that way though.

[PseudoSABR]

I could live with 1 or 2 "safe" relief pitcher arms in the first 5 rounds but 4?Once again if there was a strong history of college RPer success in the bigs it would be a big deal. Last year was such a balanced draft and this one has been the opposite.

Their strategy doesn't seem particularly safe to me, there's clearly risk (in terms of what they aren't drafting and in these players becoming more than spare bullpen parts). I look forward to what they have to say about their strategy and the individual players. If they are truly exploiting a market inefficiency, than it's absolutely the right move, even if unconventional and unbalanced.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins must think differently, a true value play.

 

One thing is certain, there's going to be a huge hole in terms of quality position players at the lower levels of the minor league program for the next few years- so they must really be certain about the top position prospects in Ft Myers right now, plus Gordon, Sano, Buxton and Vargas and Santana to really come through.

They have grabbed some interesting international bats the last few years, however. My guess is that picks in rounds 2-4 won't have a huge impact on longterm minor leaguer rosters.

[gunnarthor]

John Curtiss. Callis thinks he's a starter but he was a reliever coming back from TJ last year. Nice sleeper in his words.

[PseudoSABR]

Curtiss could have been a third-round pick out of a Texas high school in 2011 had he been willing to turn pro, but he was set on becoming a Longhorn. The most highly regarded arm in a deep Texas recruiting class, he had Tommy John surgery after his freshman season and missed all of 2013, when he also had a rib removed to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. He has come back strong as a closer as a redshirt sophomore this spring and should return to starting again in 2015. Curtiss has regained the velocity on his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and peaks at 96, and he uses his 6-foot-5 frame to throw his heater on a steep downhill plane. He still can run his slider up into the 80s, though it can get slurvy and he battles his command with it. Pitchers who have their elbows reconstructed often need time to get back their consistency and command of their secondary pitches, so his slider should get better. Because he's working in relief, Curtiss hasn't found much need for a changeup, which will require plenty of work when he joins the rotation. A potential No. 2 or 3 starter if everything comes together, he's also highly intelligent and graduated from Texas in three years with a double major in English and history.

Via MLB

 

--

 

Callis loves the pick, says this guy is a starter, number 88 on Callis' top 100.

[Too Much Twins]

i like curtiss!

[diehardtwinsfan]

John Curtiss.... hoping to take advantage of having TJ already done...

[Willihammer]

John Curtiss: 26 h, 13 BB, 28 K, 0 HR, .200 BAA in 36.1 IP

[PseudoSABR]

The Twins must think differently, a true value play.

 

One thing is certain, there's going to be a huge hole in terms of quality position players at the lower levels of the minor league program for the next few years.

Right. Let's hope they are using international development better than we generally think they are.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I like Curtiss a lot more than the Clay pick.

[Willihammer]

I feel like there was a time, not too long ago, where the Twins might have jumped to get the soft tossing lefthanded son of Charlie Leibrandt.

[drivlikejehu]

Other teams draft college relievers. Other teams sometimes try to convert them to starters. The difference is that the Twins have focused both the 2012 and 2014 drafts on college relief pitchers, a class of player with a minimal track record of success. In 2012 they didn't even care if their arms were still in one piece.

 

The notion that this is some kind of savvy strategy is a really hard sell. There is no evidence of any kind, from other organizations or the Twins, that it is a wise use of draft picks.

[gunnarthor]

Other teams draft college relievers. Other teams sometimes try to convert them to starters. The difference is that the Twins have focused both the 2012 and 2014 drafts on college relief pitchers, a class of player with a minimal track record of success. In 2012 they didn't even care if their arms were still in one piece.

 

I'm not sure that's a fair assessment of the 2012 draft. We got the best prospect in baseball in that draft and a pretty darn good starting pitching prospect with our second pick. In the third round they grabbed a lottery ticket in Walker. Yeah, they did take several relief arms - but most teams do draft more pitchers than they will use. I suspect in a few years no one will consider that the Twins focused on relief arms in that draft.

[Willihammer]

We don't yet know what the Twins are going to do with them though. Specifically Burdi and Cederoth. If they just plug em into the bullpen next year, that is some awfully fast cash.

[PseudoSABR]

The notion that this is some kind of savvy strategy is a really hard sell. There is no evidence of any kind, from other organizations or the Twins, that it is a wise use of draft picks.

I'm not sure that it's savvy, and I'm not trying to sell you. The strategy is unconventional, so naturally the evidence legitimizing such tactics would be scant.

 

For a team mired in conventional thinking to go so hard after velocity with atypical tactics, I think, demonstrates an evolution in that team's thinking; and beliefs about player development. I honestly don't know enough about this particular draft to judge whether the tactics are exploiting a market inefficiency or not, but I like conviction and a the renewed approach by the Twins, and I like the unrelenting acquisition of power arms.