Highly doubt it. If we can't afford 5-6 million to bring back Santana, how can we afford Profar?

On 12/8/2024 at 7:59 AM, LambchoP said:

Highly doubt it. If we can't afford 5-6 million to bring back Santana, how can we afford Profar?

Profar estimated by Jim Bowden at 3/39MM = 13MM = less than Vazquez and Paddock’s contracts. I had Profar as my LF long before I filled out the Twins blueprint tool and included him there and came in below 130MM even w offering Profar 3/45MM. And I added Jesse Winker too.

9 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Profar estimated by Jim Bowden at 3/39MM = 13MM = less than Vazquez and Paddock’s contracts. I had Profar as my LF long before I filled out the Twins blueprint tool and included him there and came in below 130MM even w offering Profar 3/45MM. And I added Jesse Winker too.

The budget is at around $135-137 million now. So subtracting Paddack just brings the Twins to their expected budget. That means that in order to add Profar another $13M needs to come off the rolls. Profar will likely get more money though and moving all of the Vazquez contract seems extremely unlikely plus the Twins must add another catcher before any consideration of dealing Vazquez. In order to clear a ton of money, the Twins would need to move on from Correa and at that point they are going with prospects and no longer looking at adding multi-year players. The trades will cost one way or another.

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The budget is at around $135-137 million now. So subtracting Paddack just brings the Twins to their expected budget. That means that in order to add Profar another $13M needs to come off the rolls. Profar will likely get more money though and moving all of the Vazquez contract seems extremely unlikely plus the Twins must add another catcher before any consideration of dealing Vazquez. In order to clear a ton of money, the Twins would need to move on from Correa and at that point they are going with prospects and no longer looking at adding multi-year players. The trades will cost one way or another.

My plan speaks for itself, all names and salaries listed at 129.xx million. Vazquez = 5 MM, Paddack = 7.5 MM Castro = 6.7MM, Larnach = 2.x = 21.x MM. I used the full 36 for C4 and 21 for Pablo.

They could easily go out and sign Profar and Winker if they wanted to and I used 45MM for Profar. And I also got .333 hitting SS Iglesias to back up C4. Plus I added Danny Coulombe for 3 MM to shore up the LHR problem. Jeffers and Camargo will be fine with the addition of Profar, Winker, Iglesias and Jax as a front of rotation starter.

I read that Sasaki wants to play for a smaller market team with a good farm system and Twins have top money at 7.555 to offer him. But that would just be the icing on the cake.

I’m not saying this is what they will do but I’m trying to show what they CAN do if they’re aggressive like the Royals or Padres GM. My approach would be a hard working, aggressive, can--do approach and that’s what my plan does in considerably improving the offense.

With Jax in the rotation and an aggressive run for Sasaki, the Twins Rotation could be WS capable. Advantage to smaller market (per little birdie) and MAX that any team can offer. Under team control for 6 years.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 2B: Royce Lewis ($2.3M)
• 3B: Brooks Robinson Lee ($0.8M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Jurickson Profar ($15.00M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Jesse Winker ($3.5M)
• 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Utility: Jose Iglesias ($2.25M)
• Utility: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Jair Camargo ($.8M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Roki Sasaki ($0.8M)
• SP2: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• SP3: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Funderburk ($0.8M)
• RP: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.8M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: David Festa ($0.8M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Danny Coulombe ($3.0M)

Payroll is 0.77% under budget

mlbtraderumors.com at the top of the Twins page - Twins have received calls regarding Carlos Correa. They give a recent Falvey quote and then the writer goes on to say "That's a notable change in tone from last month" Perhaps this is how we afford Profar?

10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

My plan speaks for itself, all names and salaries listed at 129.xx million. Vazquez = 5 MM, Paddack = 7.5 MM Castro = 6.7MM, Larnach = 2.x = 21.x MM. I used the full 36 for C4 and 21 for Pablo.

They could easily go out and sign Profar and Winker if they wanted to and I used 45MM for Profar. And I also got .333 hitting SS Iglesias to back up C4. Plus I added Danny Coulombe for 3 MM to shore up the LHR problem. Jeffers and Camargo will be fine with the addition of Profar, Winker, Iglesias and Jax as a front of rotation starter.

I read that Sasaki wants to play for a smaller market team with a good farm system and Twins have top money at 7.555 to offer him. But that would just be the icing on the cake.

I’m not saying this is what they will do but I’m trying to show what they CAN do if they’re aggressive like the Royals or Padres GM. My approach would be a hard working, aggressive, can--do approach and that’s what my plan does in considerably improving the offense.

With Jax in the rotation and an aggressive run for Sasaki, the Twins Rotation could be WS capable. Advantage to smaller market (per little birdie) and MAX that any team can offer. Under team control for 6 years.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 2B: Royce Lewis ($2.3M)
• 3B: Brooks Robinson Lee ($0.8M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Jurickson Profar ($15.00M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Jesse Winker ($3.5M)
• 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Utility: Jose Iglesias ($2.25M)
• Utility: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Jair Camargo ($.8M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Roki Sasaki ($0.8M)
• SP2: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• SP3: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Funderburk ($0.8M)
• RP: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.8M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: David Festa ($0.8M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Danny Coulombe ($3.0M)

Payroll is 0.77% under budget

Not a bad overview - interesting - I do have some emotionally charged differences of opinion on a few things:

Why would anyone trade Larnach to sign Jesse Winker??? He runs faster?

Larnach 15 HR in 355 AB’s and a 116 OPS+

Winker 14 HR in 430 AB’s and a 118 OPS+

…….but Winker hit .199 in ‘23 & .219 in ‘22. His OPS+ in last 2 months with Mets was 96. I live in Cinti and watched him be on a heater for 7-8 weeks a season and greatly disappoint the other 2/3 of the season……He costs $1.5M more than Larnach (75% more). Sorry, can’t imagine Team entertains adding Winker in any situation.

I can’t get behind Camargo as an option at MLB - he is hardly is acceptable in St Paul 

Profar had a -1.3 WAR in ‘23. At 32 years old in ‘25, he seems really risky for a 3 year deal as nearly half of his career WAR came in ‘24. He hit 24 HR last year and had 80 HR over the previous 8 years. Maybe he’s “figured it out”? I keep Larnach and pass on the additional $13M that Profar would get, at a minimum.

Jax, to me, should remain in the Pen and this would allow him to close games and Team could then trade Duran for position player help and to potentially reduce payroll more……….Festa stays in rotation along with SWR as I can’t imagine Sasaki coming to Twin Cities. 

Would rather have had Gurriel than Profar - too old.

Sasaki would be a major coop.

We should have signed the guy the Cubs did last year.

Don't mi ndJax as SP, if & only if we spend on good BP. BP , even good ones, are much cheaper than SP.

We need BP, LF & 1B.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not a bad overview - interesting - I do have some emotionally charged differences of opinion on a few things:

Why would anyone trade Larnach to sign Jesse Winker??? He runs faster?

Larnach 15 HR in 355 AB’s and a 116 OPS+

Winker 14 HR in 430 AB’s and a 118 OPS+

…….but Winker hit .199 in ‘23 & .219 in ‘22. His OPS+ in last 2 months with Mets was 96. I live in Cinti and watched him be on a heater for 7-8 weeks a season and greatly disappoint the other 2/3 of the season……He costs $1.5M more than Larnach (75% more). Sorry, can’t imagine Team entertains adding Winker in any situation.

I can’t get behind Camargo as an option at MLB - he is hardly is acceptable in St Paul 

Profar had a -1.3 WAR in ‘23. At 32 years old in ‘25, he seems really risky for a 3 year deal as nearly half of his career WAR came in ‘24. He hit 24 HR last year and had 80 HR over the previous 8 years. Maybe he’s “figured it out”? I keep Larnach and pass on the additional $13M that Profar would get, at a minimum.

Jax, to me, should remain in the Pen and this would allow him to close games and Team could then trade Duran for position player help and to potentially reduce payroll more……….Festa stays in rotation along with SWR as I can’t imagine Sasaki coming to Twin Cities. 

Like your rationals especially on Jax, why risk him at starter when he is a above average reliever. Don't think we should trade Duran unless tge return is amazing and it won't be.Agree on Camargo and Winkler. Good with taking on Profar 3-4 years tops. Only wish we could get Sasaki.

I have always wanted a shot at Profar but have been disappointed by his production until ‘24.  He screams late bloomer and should be signed for $39M!! Then figure out how to fit Sasaki into the team budget.  It shouldn’t be hard to ship a couple under performing guys down the road even if you have to eat a bit of their salary. 
 

We cant stay stagnant and no reason to tear anything down! Just retool with a couple new guys and make tough choices with some guys already here.  The Pohlads have a team to sell. Make it a WS contender and recoup the short term investment at sale!

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not a bad overview - interesting - I do have some emotionally charged differences of opinion on a few things:

Why would anyone trade Larnach to sign Jesse Winker??? He runs faster?

Larnach 15 HR in 355 AB’s and a 116 OPS+

Winker 14 HR in 430 AB’s and a 118 OPS+

…….but Winker hit .199 in ‘23 & .219 in ‘22. His OPS+ in last 2 months with Mets was 96. I live in Cinti and watched him be on a heater for 7-8 weeks a season and greatly disappoint the other 2/3 of the season……He costs $1.5M more than Larnach (75% more). Sorry, can’t imagine Team entertains adding Winker in any situation.

I can’t get behind Camargo as an option at MLB - he is hardly is acceptable in St Paul 

Profar had a -1.3 WAR in ‘23. At 32 years old in ‘25, he seems really risky for a 3 year deal as nearly half of his career WAR came in ‘24. He hit 24 HR last year and had 80 HR over the previous 8 years. Maybe he’s “figured it out”? I keep Larnach and pass on the additional $13M that Profar would get, at a minimum.

Jax, to me, should remain in the Pen and this would allow him to close games and Team could then trade Duran for position player help and to potentially reduce payroll more……….Festa stays in rotation along with SWR as I can’t imagine Sasaki coming to Twin Cities. 

AGe 24, 25, 26, 27 seasons Winker had well over .900 OPS twice and close to a cumulative .900 OPS for the 4 seasons, including .939 and .949.

Winker had .360 OBP in 2024  (.374 with Nationals) Larnach .338. Billy Beane either had it right or wrong.

Best season for Winker, he was vastly better than Larnach has ever been at age 27 with .305/.394/.556 = .949 OPS and 143 OPS+. Winker has had 143 OPS+, 139, 132, 126, 125, 118, 103. The .199 average was less than 200 AB so out of context with his career.

Winker lifetime: .262/.367/.437 .804 OPS 118 OPS+ Only 30 y.o.

Larnach lifetime: .236/.323/.403 .726 OPS 102 OPS+

You still think Larnach is the better over all player?

Oh, and Jurickson Profar 2024: OPS+ = 134