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My 2022 Offseason Blueprint: sign Story, Stroman


cjm0926

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Like many others on Twins Daily, I will be describing an offseason I hope to see the Twins have. Who to sign, who to trade, and everything else I wish to see happen this offseason. I'd love to see comments about what you like/dislike and anything you might change.

Below I have included my version on the payroll spreadsheet.

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First off, I sign Buxton to a 5 year, $75 million extension with the incentives wanted by Buxton's party. 

I also make a few big splashes in free agency, signing Trevor Story to a 5 year, $100 million deal. It may not be very likely to sign him for that little, but if things play out the right way I could see it happening. Also, that means Story is the shortstop of the future, no need to worry about Lewis at SS long term and if he will take over and be the guy. He could be traded, or developed to play another position that doesn't have as much wear and tear on the body.

Next I sign Stroman to a 3 Year, $70 Million deal. It seems unlikely he would come to Minnesota, but that is why I pay a little more than his expected value (expected around $20 Million) per year to get him to come to Minnesota. I also sign Corey Dickerson for 1 Year, $6 Million to play corner outfield. I also sign a few bullpen arms, them being Brad Hand (1 year, $2 Million), Ryan Tepera (1 Year, $5 Million), and Kendall Graveman (1 Year, $4 Million).

I also make a few trades during the offseason, the first being Kepler to New York for Luis Severino. I don't know how likely this is, but Baseball Trade Values listed it as an overpay for Minnesota. Also with New York being interested in Kepler quite a bit around last year's deadline, I could see it happen. Severino is coming back from a few injuries and hasn't pitched a whole lot during the past 2 years, but I feel he could regain some of his fire he had before he got hurt and become an amazing #3 starter. If he doesn't have it, he could be gone after this season, or there is a $15 million option for 2023.

I trade Ryan Jeffers, Matt Canterino, and Taylor Rogers to Arizona for Zac Gallen. I think this could be solid framework for this to happen, although it all depends on what Arizona wants, Arizona gets 2 good, young players with much potential, and one of the games best closers over the past couple years, Taylor Rogers. Arizona is not going anywhere anytime soon and with Gallen's name coming up in rumors during the season I could see him getting traded. I am a little nervous about Rogers coming off a finger injury and getting paid $7 million so that is why I trade him off while he still has solid value.

Lastly I trade Donaldson for salary relief, which helps us sign some of the big free agents mentioned previously. Donaldson is definitely a good player, no doubt about it, I just don't see it helping a lot in the coming years for the team due to age and injury concerns. All I expect to get out of it is 1 or 2 "Slapdick" - Blake Snell, prospects. We will also eat $7 Million per year.

 

For everyone else, I see Garver and Rortvedt splitting catching duties, with a current minor leaguer, maybe Tomas Telis or Roy Morales being a short term option incase of an injury. I see Kirilloff and Sano splitting time at 1B, Polanco being primary 2B, Arraez and Miranda splitting 3B and Utility duties, and Story being the shortstop of the future. In the outfield, I trust Larnach will get back on track, Buxton will Buxton, and Dickerson can fill in in RF or LF. I also have Celestino, Gordon, and could call up Rooker or Contreras if needed. Celestino will be 4th OF, and Gordon can be super utility, filling in at SS or CF if needed, as well as almost any other position.

For the rotation I am going to roll with Stroman, Gallen, Severino, Ryan, Ober. The first 3 I explained above, and Ober and Ryan don't need much explanation. I could see us rolling with a 6 man rotation for a while to keep wear off young arms, but otherwise it is pretty self explanatory.

In the pen I am returning Duffey, Alcala, Minaya, Moran, and Thielbar. I go out and sign Tepera, Graveman, and Hand as explained above. That gives me 3 lefties and 5 righties with Rogers gone. I think that pen would work out pretty well, and if someone isn't performing, there are young guys in Triple-A ready to show up.

Went a few million over budget, but that should hopefully be fine. Lastly I am eating up a combined $11.25 Million between Maeda, Donaldson, and Colome buyout.Thank you for reading my first blog on Twins Daily, any feedback would be appreciated.

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Nice outside the box thinking.  On your Arizona trade, I doubt the want to trade for a closer 1 year from FA.  Maybe its a 3 team trade or there is somone else with value.  Also Graveman and Rogers are making about the same.. There is no need to swap them out.  Also what do we get for Donaldson and where is he traded?  I think Story and Strom get more years on their contracts.

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1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Nice outside the box thinking.  On your Arizona trade, I doubt the want to trade for a closer 1 year from FA.  Maybe its a 3 team trade or there is somone else with value.  Also Graveman and Rogers are making about the same.. There is no need to swap them out.  Also what do we get for Donaldson and where is he traded?  I think Story and Strom get more years on their contracts.

I could agree with most of what you said, there is a lot of things that have to fall in place for this to happen. I only thought we could trade Rogers to Arizona so maybe they could use him as a trade piece, kind of far fetched though. The only reason I am skeptical on Rogers is because he is coming off a finger injury that costed him over 2 months. For Donaldson I would trade him to whoever would be willing to take on most of the contract. Nobody specific, maybe the Mets. I would trade him for one or 2 or an organizations 10-15 prospects, maybe a little higher depending on the ranking, anything above is a plus. Esentially a salary dump. Donaldson definetly is a good 3B, no doubt, I just don't think he fits in great with the teams plans for the next few years, with Arraez and Miranda fully capable of handling 3B for roughly $20 Million less.

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Your Stroman and Story contracts are lower than virtually all of the estimates at Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. Even if the market proves to be team-friendly, it would be rather surprising for the Twins to win the bidding at those prices, with no history or geographic connection to either player. Seems like they'd have a lot of suitors at that level.

Your Gallen trade also seems off. Aside from falling short on value at BaseballTradeValues.com, it's just not a package of players that the Diamondbacks would be seeking. They already have two cost-controlled catchers (Kelly and Varsho, each valued higher than Jeffers). And Rogers would just be a rental that they'd have to flip. I think you'd need a package at least on par with Martin + Woods-Richardson, if not higher (Gallen is still pre-arb, and has 4 years of control left, so less urgency to move him).

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I love this one, but I agree that I don't think the financial work. I'd jump on Story in a heart beat at this price, but until the SS market starts to move there are people projecting Story to get offers closer to $30M AAV than $20M, and I think Stroman is going to go higher too.

AZ would have to rate Canterino higher than others. I'm a fan of Canterino, but trying to figure how high he's going to fly is a real question. That said, I like the ambition of targeting a guy like Gallen.

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3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Your Stroman and Story contracts are lower than virtually all of the estimates at Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. Even if the market proves to be team-friendly, it would be rather surprising for the Twins to win the bidding at those prices, with no history or geographic connection to either player. Seems like they'd have a lot of suitors at that level.

Your Gallen trade also seems off. Aside from falling short on value at BaseballTradeValues.com, it's just not a package of players that the Diamondbacks would be seeking. They already have two cost-controlled catchers (Kelly and Varsho, each valued higher than Jeffers). And Rogers would just be a rental that they'd have to flip. I think you'd need a package at least on par with Martin + Woods-Richardson, if not higher (Gallen is still pre-arb, and has 4 years of control left, so less urgency to move him).

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I feel like the Stroman offer was very realistic. Ill admit, Story was a bit low but if some of the other shortstops sign before him, that kind of dries up his market a bit, and the Twins possibly could swoop in. The Gallen trade was kind of random, ill agree. I didn't realize Kelly was under control for so much longer, and for Varsho, they played him in the outfield this year more than at catcher. But I will admit, it was kind of far fetched, but interesting.

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1 hour ago, cjm0926 said:

I feel like the Stroman offer was very realistic. Ill admit, Story was a bit low but if some of the other shortstops sign before him, that kind of dries up his market a bit, and the Twins possibly could swoop in. The Gallen trade was kind of random, ill agree. I didn't realize Kelly was under control for so much longer, and for Varsho, they played him in the outfield this year more than at catcher. But I will admit, it was kind of far fetched, but interesting.

I like all of these targets, it just might take a bit more to land them.

Next year is Stroman's age 31 season, so I think he's probably aiming for more total dollars rather than AAV. Your 3/70 deal could beat the Fangraphs median crowdsource estimate of 4/72, but it would fall short of the average crowdsource (~4/83), Ben Clemens (4/100), and MLBTR (5/110) estimates.

There's also enough demand at shortstop that it might be hard for the market to "dry up" too much for Story. MLBTR says "Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals" could pursue Story. And a few of those teams aren't going to be able to afford or land Correa or Seager, so they'll probably focus more on the next tier. (And if Semien and Taylor sign somewhere else to play more second base, it doesn't necessarily hurt Story's market.)

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I hightly doubt Buxton signs an extension with incentives at this point.  If I was his agent I would tell him to test FA market see what he can get before he agrees to an incentive deal.  I am not high on Story at all, I believe his home road splits are way too bad to think he will be any real value for Twins.  I also worry as he ages he will have to leave SS, as only the top elite guys manage to stick there into mid-30's, which most of them only stick there based on what they did in past.  If he cannot stay there for the last 2 years of his deal and is only average hitter he will be very overpaid.  

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Overall a good plan.  And at $133 your not too far off budget (and I think $140 million may be needed to correct the mistakes this FO made last year).

Otto beat me to my biggest quibble with your plan:  The D-Backs don't need and won't want Jeffers because they don't need a catcher.  Recalibrate your plan by sending Jeffers in a package to Miami for pitching.  I think the Twins should stick with Kepler because I'd rather see him "figure out" what he needs to do to improve, but trading him to the Yanks for Severino is a "swing for the fences" kind of off season move I could get excited about.  LOVE the signing of Graveman.  I think he could be a little more expensive but he would be a key addition to our BP.  Maybe skip signing Hand for $2 million and give that money to Graveman.

Nice Job !!

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13 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Overall a good plan.  And at $133 your not too far off budget (and I think $140 million may be needed to correct the mistakes this FO made last year).

Otto beat me to my biggest quibble with your plan:  The D-Backs don't need and won't want Jeffers because they don't need a catcher.  Recalibrate your plan by sending Jeffers in a package to Miami for pitching.  I think the Twins should stick with Kepler because I'd rather see him "figure out" what he needs to do to improve, but trading him to the Yanks for Severino is a "swing for the fences" kind of off season move I could get excited about.  LOVE the signing of Graveman.  I think he could be a little more expensive but he would be a key addition to our BP.  Maybe skip signing Hand for $2 million and give that money to Graveman.

Nice Job !!

Thank you, guess I didnt pay enough attention to the diamondbacks needs so that is my fault. I just feel like we will have to sell the farm to get alcantara from Miami with many other teams definetly interested. I feel like Gallen is a more under the radar guy with top of the rotation upside who could be had for a much smaller package (although not the one I put together haha).

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I will join in and say I love the concepts, and can't find anything to quibble about other than, as others have, the dollar amounts (they might have to be higher, which I worry about JP agreeing to).  The only thing that stuck in my craw, so to speak:  please do not say you are going to pay 23+mil and 11 mil (or more) for two starting pitchers and talk about putting them into a 6 man rotation.  You don't pay pitchers that kind of money to pitch a few innings every 6 games; keep the 5 man going and let them pitch.  Otherwise, you sold me.  

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