stringer bell

Nah, the Twins have been one of the more consistent run-scoring teams in the AL. They've had relatively fewer "spike" games than other teams leading in runs scored.

Putting a player who has already been out for 60 days says nothing when he will be ready to play again. Abel had surgery and it is obvious he won't be back soon, but an August or September return is possible and I think the Twins are planning on it as long as they are credibly in the race.

I don't think it is indefensible, if you have a versitile roster, to have a 13th position player who is really a specialist, in the vein of Keirsey Jr. last year. If there is coverage for platoons and occasional rest for the better hitters, having a guy who can field a key position and steal a base can work. I don't think the Twins are the perfect example, because the position players aren't that well-rounded. This is particularly true in postseason, but having a guy who can steal a base when the other team is trying to stop it and be a plus defender in late innings is worth something, even if the manager doesn't want to see him hit. McCusker particularly and Fedko mostly got promotions because they did hit in the minors and were never given a real chance to show they could do the same in "the show". In recent memory, the Atlanta Braves had a preferred lineup that had eight starters plus a catcher job share that continued until somebody got injured (Albies?). It is rare that a team has that many regulars who are in the lineup 90% of the time. Platooning goes all the way back to Casey Stengel, if not longer.

If you care about the All-Star game and Home Run Derby, this is an exciting week. I really don't care about exhibitions so to me this week is a dead zone. It might be a good time to see if there are any seers among the Twins Daily faithful. Let's have a prediction thread about what will happen to the players and the team for the balance of 2026 with special attention to whether the Twins make the playoffs in the weak American League. I'll predict that the Twins are in the wild card and division conversation until the end, but late injuries and perhaps lack of bullpen depth will be their undoing. They finish with a 80-82 record and are a couple games out of the last playoff spot. Ryan Jeffers traded, Joe Ryan and Larnach stay.

Martin seems to have come out of the doldrums at the plate. His statcast profile is mixed--he is well above average in chase %, whiff %, walk % and K%, but well below in slugging, exit velo,, expect BA and slugging. It just shows how good a player with limited power has to be in other areas to make up for that limitation.

IMHO there is Royce I and Royce II. Royce I was a surprise and a disappointment. Batting average in the mid-.100s and OPS at .539. Since his return from the minors, he has been a well-above average hitter. and a surprisingly good first baseman--.266 BA and an OPS well over .800. Larnach has put up the best numbers of his career. Not a lot of homers, but an improved BB/K ratio and OBP. His defense has been what is expected, but his hitting has overshadowed his deficiencies in the field. The defense has been poor, with the middle infield being the focus of their struggles. Kreidler and Clemens are good defenders and they've replaced poor defenders at both second and short. Austin Martin has shown he can cover ground and throw from the corner OF spots, Lee and Lewis have adapted to their new positions, but having a good SS is the piece that determines how good this defense is.

Some more numbers courtesy of The Fielding Bible--Brooks Lee has now played more games and innings at third base this year than his original position of shortstop. In approximately a quarter season at short he ranked dead last in runs saved despite a low error number. As a third baseman, Lee is neutral in DRS. Meanwhile, left fielder Trevor Larnach started the season with surprise positive ratings in left field. He hasn't been able to sustain the good fielding marks and now sits at the bottom in DRS at -5. Austin Martin still ranks as a meaningful upgrade on defense above either Luke Keaschall in right field or Larnach in left.

Well, nine position players start each game. That leaves four players to comprise the bench. The typical construction is a second catcher, a fourth outfielder (perhaps a platoon) and a utility infielder. That would be Caratini, Martin and Gray. The three-man bench backs up and rests everybody, leaving the 13th position for some kind of specialist, perhaps a veteran pinch-hitter or a pinch-runner and defender (sounds like Outman). The roles can change over time--Willi Castro started 2023 as the 13th position player--but the opportunites are few unless there are injuries or circumstances which call for going with the 13th guy. It also makes sense not to burn service time for a yound guy with potential to have him start once or twice a week at most. Outman, Fedko, McCusker, and now Jackson all fit as 13th guys, as did DaShawn Keirsey Jr. last season.

In the last six weeks (since 6/1) Gray has played in 28 games with 21 starts. Kreidler has played in 33 games with 22 starts. Gray has gotten more playing time than I think he merits, but Kreidler is playing more despite being 3-28 this month so far. The sample size for these guys is still pretty small. I don't think Kreidler is trusted to be even an adequate hitter while I suspect the Twins think that Gray has potential to do much better.

Since the St. Louis series where the Twins started winning series, Gray has started 14 games at short and Kreidler 12 (Arcia 1). Kreidler has also started a half dozen games in center, but with Keaschall and Roden both available along with Martin and Larnach, Kreidler should no longer be needed that much in center field. Kreidler started this month-long stretch hitting well, but has cooled considerably. Gray has not hit well for the last month or really since a hot start at the beginning of the season. Managers like to use all their players if they can find a role for them. Gray's only role with the current configuration of players and positions is to play shortstop and he's not really suited to that. If Kreidler hits roughly equivalent to Gray, he should be starting at least 75% of the time without another roster move. I will add that Gray has looked better at short the last week or so after a really brutal run prior to that, but like Brooks Lee, the real problem isn't screwing up balls he can get to, it is that he doesn't have major league shortstop range (11th percentile range and 23rd percentile sprint speed).

A month after the original posting and there has been little change in the Twins' overall ranking. The team is currently next to last in Defensive Runs Saved (-28) ahead of only the Phillies. However, in the last month, the Twins "only" were -3 DRS, below average, but not dreadful. There have been several changes in positions and it looks like the changes are helping. 1) Royce Lewis has played first base almost exclusively. This was an entirely new position to the former #1 overall draft choice and he has responded by playing more than acceptably at first base (+1 DRS). Luke Keaschall has moved away from second base, replaced by Kody Clemens. Clemens has positive value at second (+1 DRS). The rating isn't as kind to Keaschall (-2 DRS in right field and -1 DRS in center) but these are positions where Keaschall had played some in the minors and none in the majors. The eye test says that he's going to be okay as an outfielder.. Due to injury to Byron Buxton, Ryan Kreidler got a number of innings in center field, where he ranks a +1 DRS also saw Tristan Gray get considerable time at shortstop where he continues to rate very poorly (an addition -2 DRS since the original posting). Kreidler also has played a lot of shortstop and rates positiviely. The return of Buxton to center field could and should make the Twins a better defensive team and with the configuration of Keaschall, Buxton and Larnach/Martin in the outfield with an infield of Lee, Kreidler, Clemens and Lewis and the catching tandem of Jeffers and Caratini, I think the defense is pretty close to neutral, maybe even a small bit above average.

Three catchers means that Jackson now assumes the Outman/Fedko role without plus speed or outfield defense. I suppose Alex will catch a few innings of blowouts and perhaps pinch run for Bell or Larnach at some point. Also, I suppose Gray is a bit more secure with Kreidler still considered a part-time outfielder with Jackson around. Assuming Buxton returns shortly after the break, the position player roster space gets really tight. The Twins could send Gray out, but then Kreidler is the SS with the only possible backup being Lee.

His nice game today puts Houston’s OPS at .844. He did have two hitless games prior to today. A plus fielding everyday shortstop would do wonders for the Twins’ team defense. I suppose Culpepper will get a chance, but his future could be somewhere other than SS.

Saying that not everything has gone wrong is minimizing what, by many measures, is the worst bullpen in MLB. Too many guys trying to trick the hitters instead of challenging them with their best pitches. Not enough velocity or plus pitches. That said, the success of Morris and Gomez is something to build on. Go and Nance could be needed higher leverage guys. If Sands can find his 2024 form and Funderburk his late 2025 form...yeah, I'm asking for a lot. Actually if a couple of acquisitions click and one of Sands or Funderburk goes back to being successful, there's something. It seems the line between success and failure as a bullpen arm is not much.

The Angels have made all the plays for two games, but they allowed noted speedster Victor Caratini to score twice without a throw on plays where I thought they had a good chance to throw him out. Is Trout diminished or just not quite 100%? He didn't make a play on Gray's shallow fly ball and earlier didn't make a throw on Caratini. I don't question official scorer's decisions much, but how can Keaschall's oopsie in the first inning not be called an error?