Matthew Trueblood

That's an interesting argument. Candelario only got 75% of the QO as an AAV, and that was without QO to dent his value. He's a good little analog for Kepler, because both have been so inconsistent, but with clearly great best seasons. I do think Kepler COULD earn a QO with a good enough 2024, but right now, I'd bet the Twins are mentally approaching him as a non-QO candidate. Trade threshold, if they go that way, wouldn't be set at the estimated value of the QO, because they aren't expecting to offer him one. But I could be wrong.

BTV is a disasterclass and I say we should all put zero stock in it. But this is a really perspicacious use of it. Yes. That third and fourth year of control have such premiums attached to them. Love the framing. Two years from FA seems to be the sweet spot for an acquisition. It certainly seems like the Twins think that way, too: Gray, Lopez, etc.

Thanks for the catch; 36 is correct. I'll be updating the piece momentarily. I agree, we might be overlooking Miranda as a bounceback candidate. I don't love his outlook at this point, but there's *some* chance he gets back to being a really good hitter. Whether it's 10 percent or 50 is a matter for healthy debate.

One thing that'll be interesting (although less so than it would be if the Twins were even remotely involved, of course) to watch: the structure of the deal. Because of the stupidly complicated new rules about calculating posting fees, teams are going to balk at huge guarantees if Yamamoto wants an opt-out, and certainly if he wants more than one. I'd assume we end up seeing a 10-year deal without opt-outs, because it's going to be the best way for him to maximize the money he's offered.

I think Molina is really laying in the weeds for that managerial gig, should Marmol be fired. It's fascinating, though, because I'm not sure he'd be good at the (considerable, often onerous) media interaction aspects of the job. We'll see. Yeah, Yamamoto just isn't going to happen, and I think that's ok for the Twins and what they can spend without stretching themselves. The thing I also don't think is going to happen, but that I'm less ok with not happening, is a Shota Imanaga pursuit. He should be within reach for them, but I assume that (given what we've heard about the team's payroll plans) he won't be.

I'm a big believer that untouchability is a market condition, rather than an absolute one. There are guys where you're just not going to get an offer that realistically eclipses their value to the team. For me, right now, those guys are: Emmanuel Rodríguez Royce Lewis Pablo López Matt Wallner But of course, OF COURSE, that's fluid. A month or two trades from now, the picture might be different enough that two more guys are on this list, or that one or two come off it.

This probably reinforces your point, rather than pushing back on it, but just to lay it out there: The main reason why the Cardinals want to get shot of O'Neill isn't the numbers. He's not a good fit there. I think a change of scenery could work, but in St. Louis, his makeup has gotten between himself and his talent.

Interesting thought. Kepler and Polanco would be some compelling one-stop shopping for them, no question. I wonder if they're thinking as much about the next year or two as a window to win as they would need to be, in order to make that kind of swap.

I do think there's a chance Gilbert will be available. It certainly wouldn't be for Kepler, unless he were a secondary piece behind an awfully impressive prospect, though.

I hadn't thought of the Dodgers as a natural trade partner. Who do you envision being involved, on either side, in such a deal? I'm interested..

Obviously, it's not a *requirement* that the replacement for Gray be a short, athletic guy with a sweepy slider and a heavy reliance on ground balls and command and a fierce combination of self-confidence and competitiveness, but it sure would make some things easier. They could probably use Sonný's old pants for Stro. :D Seriously, it's gonna be a matter of money and other options for Stroman, but I like the fit from the team's side. Some of the same things they helped Sonny learn to do, late in his career, are things Stroman could benefit from learning to do.

You're onto something, although maybe not what you think. Haha. Consider what this report implies about their level of confidence in SWR, for sure.

I'm not sure it'll be easy to change that, but it's clearly something they should be thinking about going into spring training. The team approach needs to be (slightly, but surely) tweaked.

I think the baseball offseason is just a terrible fit for the Twitter Era, right? Or maybe it's an ok one, but people just need to be more patient. We get soooo many rumors before real action happens, whereas in capped sports, the action almost comes first. (Or, in reality, the rumors start early in their prior seasons.) I actually kind of like it, but I know I'm wired differently than most in this regard. It's tough to find the balance point of enjoying the coverage of who might do what, while not agonizing over it or expecting a move at any given time. It's a slow burn. Most people, in 2023, do not like a slow burn.

I hear you on that, but I'd also say, we've seen this play from the Twins FO before. They like to start the winter by setting the floor and working on establishing depth, and then they try to be very opportunistic later in the offseason, when bigger stuff can shake loose or prices can drop, unexpectedly. So maybe they sign that 5th/6th starter this month, but then in mid-January, we get a surprise boost for the top half of the unit. As I wrote above, though: the payroll ceiling could thwart all that.

I think the price tag on a Williams trade right now would make your head spin. But you know I love Lugo as a fit for them, and Duvall is another great idea.

Thanks for the feedback, Mike! Love these thoughts. Yeah, I definitely think this can be a place where we talk a bit about what else is going on in the league, especially when it can have anything to do with the Twins.

Hey! Welcome to what we're testing as a daily feature here at Twins, er, Daily. Let's get the day started strong. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports The Winter Meetings are right around the corner, and some free agents have found new homes. So far, though, the Twins haven't waded into the hot stove action. Let's kick around a few things that are going on. Good News is No News Thursday brought the very non-revelatory, weirdly non-reassuring news that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter, and that they're more likely to acquire someone to compete with Louie Varland at the back end of the rotation than to try to replace Sonny Gray (i.e., add a top-end starter). That's concrete information, but it's also so negotiable as to be negligible. It can't possibly surprise any of us, by now, to hear the Twins managing expectations around who they'll land for the rotation. Even as we kick around scenarios in which the Twins jump in on Corbin Burnes (projected to earn $15-16 million in 2024 via arbitration) or Tyler Glasnow (under contract for $25 million), we have to grapple with the reality that the team's bizarrely self-confessed payroll limitations matter just as much when trying to trade for a starter as when trying to sign one. As yesterday's reports also affirmed, the front office sure is putting a lot of eggs in Chris Paddack's basket. Big News Out of Bushville First of all, remember when rivalry between the titans of the coasts and we Midwesterners was properly bare-knuckled and hostile? In 1957, the New York papers just up and nicknamed Milwaukee "Bushville" ahead of their World Series showdown with the Milwaukee team there. Wild times. Anyway, the Brewers made the biggest waves in MLB Thursday, signing elite prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year deal that could stretch to 10, guaranteeing him $80 million and securing his services for the entirety of his 20s. This is a huge deal for that team, but it's also sent some ripples out to other clubs. For instance, could the Brewers now be a better trade partner for the Twins, who need right-handed outfield help? Or, could this be a model for an eventual Emmanuel Rodriguez extension, if he has the season for which we're all hoping in 2024? Can the Twins Level Up Their Selective Aggression in 2024? Some of the best recent research work done in the public baseball analysis sphere has been Robert Orr's development of a metric called SEAGER--Selective Aggressive Engagement Rate, and yes it's a backronym crafted around its best practitioner--to better define the skill of attacking hittable pitches and matching swing rate to situational utility of swinging, based on count and pitch location. If you subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, you can read about it in detail here, but for everyone else, here's an interesting thing: the Twins ranked eighth in team SEAGER in 2023. I don't think that neatly matches most of our perceptions. Back in October, I wrote about how the team's sky-high strikeout rate was an outgrowth of their refusal to change their approach much based on the count. Yet, as Rocco Baldelli said in that article, the team seems to get real value out of knowing the zone and expanding it only when a particular hitter knows they can handle bad balls in a particular place. Can the Twins' rotation be good enough to win the AL Central in 2024 without reinforcing the top or middle of that corps? What has your mental gears whirring when it comes to the Chourio extension? And how can the Twins continue to adjust their approach at the plate to better realize their full potential? The table is set. Leave a comment; let's feast. View full article

Ahhh, interesting! I like that spin on Nick's first proposed reason. It's probably not enough to explain the choice on its own, but I could see that being a factor.

I made the case at Baseball Prospectus about a week and a half ago that the Twins just plain erred by deciding to decrease payroll at all. Given the cycle of sales and partnerships, it's especially dumb to let everyone know this is happening, but the smart move was simple to invest and realize the big gains over the next several years, anyway. Well-put here, Nick. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/86831/flyover-country-winning-and-losing-the-winter/

I also think we should stop conceptualizing him as a backup, right? It's pretty clear that the Twins view catcher as a position best shared fairly equitably, to keep everyone fresh. $10 million would be an insane amount to pay a backup to a 110-game catcher, but I'd bet they're eyeing more like a 90-72 or a 96-66 split of starts between their catchers next year. If the 72 or 66 is Jair Camargo.... I don't love that. Unless you got something other than financial relief by dealing Vázquez.

Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling. View full article