Rosterman

Luis Arraez?

Two ways to deal with minor league free agents: you give them a contract that far exceeeds the probably minimum they might get from another team, or you add them to the 40-man. Reasons why a player will switch teams once he becomes a minor league free agent? They team doesn't want him back. Someone offers you more money. You see less blockage in your way to advance in another oprganization. If you are a minor league free agnt that would just be putting in time at the AA level because of two much competition, or if you are AAA filler, you can make a decent living signing with pretty much any organization. Of course, any min or league player risks getting released from the non-binding contact and suddenly faced with job outlooks that often league to independent league ball with the hope for a comeback in a minor league system of a major league team. The lost season set so many players back. Every major league team is in the same situation, players they wish to keep not advancing past AA ball. So will be interesting to see what prospects might be changing teams, compared to the three dozen folks the Twins signed as basically AAAA fodder last season. That being sai,d I hope the Twins are not hasty in resigning either Pineda or Colome, although their decision on Coleme means spending $1.25 million for nothing or $5.5 million for something. Is Colome a better keep on the 40-man than, say, Jax or Garza or Which of thor Thorpe or Smeltzer, any of whom would be jettisoned if they kept hiose names, if any, would remain on a Twin on a minor league contract and the hopes that they can crack the team out of spring training?m.

Eddie was not worth the $10-12 million. The Twins felt they had Kirilloff in the mix, Cave as backup, and even felt good enough about Rooker to let Wade go. It was all about money, and the Twins invested that money in Happ and Shoemaker...and, yes, it didn't look as bad as it turned out to be. Will be interesting to see what happens with Eddie in the off-season. Will he find a taker who will give him $20-25 million for three seasons? Do you see him getting more? I'm sure if the Twins could've signed him for $20 million, they might've taken the gamble. I'm sure Eddie thought he would do better than the $8 he got from Cleveland. But like with Ortiz, hands were tied. You pay them more than you think they are worth at the moment, or let them walk. Ortiz passed thru alot of waivers, Eddie was passed over by a lot of teams. The economics of arbitration. You either sign them early (Kepler, Polanco, Sano) or it swings to the advantage of the player to head for free agency - but that only works if the player produces to get the BIG or multi-year contract.

I haven't figured out the best spot to bat Buxton in the order. Of course, it would help if there were better batters to put around him. Too often people equate speed with stealing bases, but a lot of it is taking that extra base and testing a fielder, or coming home on a sacrifice. You have to figure the Buxton camp almost wants to see the arbitration process. He will, undoubtedly, go forward towards the $10 million mark. What the Twins offer for their end will go along ways towards Byron playing ball with the Twins. His next alternative is to take a qualifying offer at the end of 2022. Buxton's best bet would be to be a trade piece during the season, which means a team will pay "how much" for half a season of play. Buxton and his agent know full well that if Byron has a good, solid 2022 season, he can easily get $100 million for 4 years. If he excels, maybe even push that envelope more. Four years pushes him into an arena of another contract, as a corner outfielder. Would that multi-year contract exceed, say, $33 million for three more seasons? The Twins best bet would be incentive LOOOOOONG-TERM contract, like the 7/$133 fielded above with play incentives on top of that. There was no reason for Byron to take the Twins 2021 mid-season offer of many many years and around $80 million or so with LOTS of incentives. He is playing purely for 2023 at this point, with hopes that he stays healthy all season and has production going on around him. We all ask "how much is enough" and so many of us, in a similar situation, would not want to be taken advantage of. Yet a team CAN only focus so much of their salary on a single player and, sadly, with Buxton there are questionable futures attached. It is sad that in baseball there is no crying, but it all comes down to money in so many players and how they see their love of the sport.

Garlick, coming off an injury, pretty much ahs zero trade value. You can argue keeping him on the 40-man roster. The Twins have 10-12 names that they CAN keep once some prospects are added, all of the dozen names replaceable if you sign a free agent or find someone better, which you hope you can do if there are still ten expendable names on your 40-man. Rooker is home grown, a power guy, and can play 1st base and the corners. Garlick was the surprise (beating out Broxton in spring training). Rob Refsnyder kept himself in the 40-man roster spot hunt until he collapsed in the final month. Be interesting to see who goes and who stays. Rooker, as a keeper, could actually be a good throw-in if you do perform a trade during the off-season and the NL is granted the DH.

A utility guy is often just that, a versatile stop-gap until you promote the next generation from the minors to play everyday. He gives people on the roster a rest. Maybe has a skillset like a defensive replacement in blow-out games, a speedy runner if looking for base advancement, someone who hits a sacrifice fly (possibly) or puts a ball in play to move a runner. If that person can also play an everyday role when called upon, for the short-term, it is a bonus. Cave did it before in the outfield. Players like Reboulet and Hocking did it regularly for the Twins. Ehire was fine. WIllians Astudillo can, but also has a price cap for how well he can. Gordon has earned another good look in spring training, and also the inside chance of making the roster. After getting some at bats, have to see how he will change his game, so to speak, and what he can add top his skill set. Otherwise, you go with the Riddles, Maggis, and others.

If they sign him, they can negotiate long-term once they see how the finger has healed. He would be a trade chip mid-season if need be. If he totally lights-out excels, he could also be a qualifying offer candidate for an additional season. Can you replace him with an equal arm (or two) for the same price. The Twins really won't be over payroll in 2022. They can afford it.

Raisel Iglesias is intriguing, especially if you can limit him to closing dutires. You will have to give a big contract, though.

Learned that there is a new guy in the Twins coaching network, a motion performance coach named Martijn Verhoeven, who has been working with pitchers for a couple of seasons. Plus a nice shout-out to his Concordia coach Kevin Walsh.

What could a 22-year-old with limited play above A-ball possibly do? https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=baddoo000aki You just never know until you try. In 2020 the Twins decided to protect Celestino from the Rule 5 draft, although he was far from ready. In 2021, the Twins decided to NOT protect Akil Baddoo, for the same reason.,

We will see on Ryan, but if he fails as a starter...he does have the potential to be a closing ace.

Decisions should be pretty easy this round. Of course, the Twins might actually win a couple of the cases to their advantage, too. Buxton is soooooo interesting. Let's give him a big raise, but how many games did he play this season, and last season, and..... Rogers is a lefty. As is Coulombe and Thielbar. All three are within reasonable amounts to keep on the team at this point. All three can be traded or basically removed if someone better comes along. Same with Duffey. If they all come to spring training healthy, and the Twins have struck out in the free agent marketplace, they are trade chips. Gant is interesting, a swing man no doubt. Did he like Minnesota? Would he sign for less, or consider signing for less elsewhere? Curious top see what the demand for his services would be. Minaya is cheap and has stuck with the Twins as a free agent for two seasons. Reward him and see if he excels again. Yes, the days of Willians may be at an end. Again, another guy that would be curious to see what the demand for his services might be. You can make him a highly paid AAA guy, but do we rally care that he can play somewhere anytime. Cave will find a new home. Refsnyder will still be available. At one point he looked like a lock, a keeper. But the Twins could probably do as well elevating Kerrigan or Contreras when the time comes. Refsnyder is behind Larnach, Rooker, Celestino right now. Really, Arraez is a Super Two? I think they got this one wrong.

Let's look back. In 2019 the Twins sent Royce Lewis, Ben Rortvedt, Dakota Chalmers, Moises Gomez, Jovani Moran, Luke Raley and Zach Neff. All still playing. Raley made it to Dodgerland this year. In 2018: Jaylin Davis, Rooker, Blankenhorn, Hector Lujan, Adam Bray, Smeltzer, Jax, and Raley...again. All still playing ball. In 2017: Tyler Jay, Chris Paul, Lamonte Wade, Andrew Vasquez, Ryan Eades, Sean Miller and Tom Hackimer. Paul and Miller were infielders who are no longer in pro ball. In 2016: Gordon, Gonsalves, Curtiss, Melotakis, Randy Rosario, Garver, Tanner English. Tanner English disappeared. Melotakis is still hanging in Indy ball. All-Stars, ROY, batting champs, World Series players...whatever. Just a good chance to get extended seasonal play against a higher caliber of promising player.

Sometimes we go about this the wrong way. When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off. Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome. Now at 39. When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why? The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take. The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity. Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive. Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster. Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them. Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda. I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man? Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5. So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play. But we still need to drop four. Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers. Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran. That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those. We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021. On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter. So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment. And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster. In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda. Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better! I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.

The Twins need to trade. But who actually ahs real top-notch value. Who are the guys another team will pick up the phone and make the call, rather than just receive yours. The Twins very well could've seen everyone of their top talents for use in 2022 this season. Why they didn't advance Strotman, Balazovic and Miranda is beyond me. It is questionable amongst names like Winder, Duran, Sands, Enlow, Lewis, maybe Gore and a couple of AAA outfielders, that you will see much action on the field from raw talent unless the Twins totally tank out of April/May and go total rebuild mode.

You need variety. Look those cereal snackpacks. Sadly, you also have one or two that nobody really wants to see on the mound.

The whole point of Simmons, known to be a weaker hitter, was defense, combining him with Donaldson at third, Polanco at second, and Buxton in centerfield. Donaldson gave us 91 games. We know how Buxton fared. Also, the Twins were probably hoping for much more from Dobnak (a ground ball pitcher) as well as Happ and Shoemaker needing sparkling defense behind them. If the Yankee rumors of wanting the defensive Simmons, I wonder why the Twins didn't pull the plug. Come 2022 the Twins need to focus on players playing their position. Who's on first? Is it Sano or Kirilloff. Or is Kirilloff in the outfield until Larnach plays his way back on the team. Is Garver the main catcher, or does he get bats as a DH (or 1B guy). If he is going to play elsewhere, then the Twins will need a "third catcher." Is Donaldson prepared to play all-the-time at third, or better suited to split time at DH. If so, then who plays third - Arraez, or Miranda? Right now the Twins have three potential guys who can DH when the time happens, or play a position on the field. Sadly, Cruz is strict DH. Although it would be nice to follow him on his remaining two-year run to reach 500 home runs, sadly the Twins can probably do without him - unless they decide to move any or Sano (replaced by Kirilloff), Donaldson (replaced by Miranda), and Garver. Heck, I say move all three and hope you get a closer and a strong candidate for the top of the rotation, and bring back Cruz. If the Twins do tank again, someone will take Nelson off your hands yet again for a couple of dynamite prospects. I was disappointed in the Twins bot getting Balazovic to the majors, and NOT having a looksee at Strotman. They allowed Barnes and Jax to flounder, so much so many of us naysayers wonder why they would hold a 40-man spot, then we go back and look at the numbers of names like Perkins, Hawkins, Eddie G, even Vila when they first came north to Twinsland. Even if the Twins wave a blank check in front of the top arms, I suspect none of them would come to Minnesota if they get massive offers elsewhere. So, the Twins have to explore a trade. Or maybe they will get lucky on a Rule 5 choice (sic).

Pineda will look at offers, I'm sure. What makes me see him not going elsewhere for too much is that no one kicked in the Twins door to grab him at the trade deadline. So the questions are: incentive with a decent base, or a multi-year contract offering some assurance of him finding a home. But I wouldn't be the first one to knock on the door, accepting that he will hopefully ask the Twins to counter any offer he does receive, unless he knows that they won't.

The Twins could definitely package players, including Rule 5 eligible guys. Especially if a proven arm comes back in the process.

Its the rules of arbitration. Unless you can work a team friendly longterm deal, the player has an advantage going into arbitration. Would the Twins have loved to resign Eddie Rosario for what the Indians signed him for? Of course, probably. Remember that ALL teams but the Red Sox passed on Ortiz, and the Red Sox got him for less than the Twins would've been able to sign him for. That alone, that he passed thru waivers with other teams, speaks of his value at the time. Arbitration doesn't allow you to cut a player's salary, especially because of lost games due to injury. It always gives a raise of sorts. If you wish to compare Buxton to the Oritz situation in any way, it is that one has a tough time looking at Buxton's track record and saying you want to throw an enormous amount of money his way. Yet there seems little need for Buxton to sign for little or nothing in the grand scheme of things. And the potential to play elsewhere, on a winning and competitive team, is always in the minds of players and their agents. Ortiz as NOT an everyday player, even at DH, and the Twins felt the need to move on. Ortiz was thrown into play where a team suddenly ahs control...take this salary offer or leave it, return to the minors, rebuild from there. That he found a home in Red Sox land and continued to play, largely on decent one-year contracts, and thrive is GOOD for David. Again, back to Rosario. The Twins didn't see him as a $10 million dollar outfielder. They thought he could be replaced. He wasn't. But they couldn't sign him for less.

Yep, itching is going to be the killer. We currently have three guys - Colina, Balazovic and Duran - who were supposed to get a shot in 2021 and now we hope they get a shot sometime in 2022. We have Enlow who MAY need to be protected but is still a good year away from major elague action. Those are keeps, all. And then we have names like Smeltzer, Thorpe, Stashak who are all disabled in many ways, and throw in Dobnak who we can eliminate from the 40-man, but still keep, because no one is going to grab his contract, or if they do...some might turn cartwheels. But this will all be repeated in another few days when we digest the many names needed to be pitchers for the Twins.

Observations .He still is one of the current better arms (remember when he was a starter waaaay back in 2015 and actually looked good in 10 games before sucking in 2016, switching to the pen and really sucking in 2017 and 2018, before finding himself). How long can that happen? No one seemed to be kicking down the door at the trade deadline. He will still be cheap in 2022. I would've been trying him in the closer role rather than Colome the past month, unless the Twins are really thinking they want Colome back. Pitchers get old...sometimes fast. Because it takes a lot of work to constantly spot your stuff, mix-it-up, and be prepared for action any and every day.

A player on a 40-man roster, when removed, either becomes a free agent, is claimed on waivers, or clears waivers and you can send them to the minors if you wish and they are under contract. The Twins have 20 position players currently on the 40-man. Two are on the 60-day IL. Expect Rortvedt, Jeffers, Garver to stay, as well as Sano, Kirilloff, Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson, Gordon as infielders. Larnach, Buxton, Celestino, Kepler as outfielders. That's a magic 13, with two doomed to go to the minors. Cave will be arbitration bound. Rooker is younger and can play 1B, the corners, and DH. The Twins have no set DH for the moment. The importance right now of Garlick and Refsynder depends on the stock you put in Kerrigan or Contreras as possible outfielders. Both can be grabbed in the Rule 5, but doubt that they will be. The Twins need to add Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. They also need to make a decision on Trey Cabbage. I believe Jermaine Palacios and Wander Javier could walk if they wish. The Twins will no doubt be on the hunt for experienced catchers to play at AAA, be interesting to see who they go after. Jair Camargo has lots of play for his young years and can leave the organization after next season. Caleb Hamilton is also on the bubble. You have to ask the necessity of Willians Astudillo to stay on the 40-man. Will some team grab him? Part of his value is that he can be catcher. The trick is knowing you have some guys like Kerrigan, Contreras in the minors. That you can sign Drew Maggi to another minor league contract, as well as B.J. Boyd, and quite possibly Refsnyder or Garlick. Again, you do keep a couple of fringe names on the 40-man, players you can jettison if you need to add a free agent (and hopefully not Brandon Waddell). I expect 18 names of the above being kept, with three being minor league adds. Last year the Twins signed some 33 people to play at AA/AAA minor league ball. Let's see how active they are this year, or can they at least get more prospects in St. Paul.

The Saints had 37 position players pass thru their dugout. Of course, that includes rehab assignments. What is more remarkable, 42 pitchers took the mound, 23 names that played with the Twins.

Shows how fleeting and rough the life of a baseball player can be. He had a great opportunity last season and got injured. Then, bam, he had to prove he could play again in sprint training, and besides fighting against prospects like Larnach and Kirilloff, he was up against some minor league free agent signings in the likes of Refsynder, Garlick and Broxton, all who outplayed him in spring training. Then a miserable minor league start and suddenly is is looking at being overtaken in the outfield pecking order by a horde of others. He couldn't just DH this year as the Twins resigned Cruz. Sano is still the go-to for first base, as Kirilloff will have to prove he is ready for full return in 2022. Which still makes Rooker a more valuable keeper battling Cave or Refsynder for a 40-man spot. Is his spot more valuable for him, as a potential backup to anyone in 2022 with an option left, or do the Twins see if he can be a viable free agent and find a new home. He, sadly, just seems the be the 27th guy on the roster at the moment. He does hold value if anything happens to a corner outfielder, first baseman or DH roster guy. But he doesn't outshine anyone else that could also fulfill those positions.