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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    The Twins are currently built using the process of the modern-day Rays, but with more payroll. What does that mean? Their offense: For the most part, developed in the minors and brought up to The Show. Liberally utilizes platoons to take advantage of depth while maximizing production. Their pitching: Largely traded for, with some waiver claims and FAs thrown in. Very few were developed in their system. Most of those pitchers traded for have depressed values due to injury history or projection. Sometimes ineffectiveness. The Rays then tweak their effectiveness and hope they break less than their history or projection would suggest. The Braves way is often cited as nearly impossible to repeatedly have players sign long-term deals for dollar amounts that are generally considered owner-friendly. Utilizing the Rays way with more payroll seems much more repeatable and predictable.
  2. Minny505
    In all of sports, anytime you make the decision that the opposing team wants you to make you are setting yourself up for failure. As a Twins fan, all I want is for Berrios's day to be over so we can get some runs on the board. The craziest part is that if Schneider doesn't pull Berrios there, he probably gets fired for giving the FO the finger. By pulling Berrios the Blue Birds lose and he keeps his job. I love the analytics side of baseball. It's part of why I love this sport more than any of the others. And it should be every team's guiding light for most decisions. You end up like the Royals or the Rockies if you ignore it. But when a pitcher is dealing, the uniformed manager has to be given some autonomy to change that plan. Until then, that manager will continue to be the media shield for bad and inflexible, authoritarian FO decision-making.
  3. Minny505
    Paddock vs Funderburke is really the only decision to be made here. And really, the answer may be both and the squad takes 12 pitchers. I wouldn't rule it out with Baldelli's stated penchant to always have more pitchers.
  4. Minny505
    Those three percentage points vs 2012 translates to about five less PAs per game that result in a ball-in-play, which is where most of the fun of watching baseball stems from.
  5. Minny505
    Looking forward to checking out some of the games with my boys. AFL baseball is the best baseball for the money. Last year's highlight was my oldest son getting a ball signed by 8 players last year. If anyone else is in the East Valley and wants to meet up at a game, send me a message. I'd love to meet some more Twins fans down here.
  6. Minny505
    Luplow and his .820 OPS would be nice to have on the roster for those matchups as well.
  7. Minny505
    They have a fair shot at hitting the over their preseason over/under of 83.5 as well!!
  8. Minny505
    Jair Camargo looks like a solid 3rd catcher.
  9. Minny505
    In 2023 Luplow has an .820 OPS vs LHP. Castro has a .646. That is a difference of "much better" in my book. For their careers, Luplow has an .839 and Castro a .693, so this is not some SSS mirage. That is also a difference of "much better" in my book. That said, I believe you are correct about being out of options. Oversight on my part. I don't think we lose either to waivers due to playoff roster rules. I would just rather continue to give Luplow MLB PAs leading up to the playoffs to keep him sharp, while Stevenson's pinch-running doesn't really need to maintain sharpness.
  10. Minny505
    Completely agree. Stevenson could simply be optioned and you could add him back for the playoffs. Gotta have Luplow in the lineup vs LHP or as a pinch-hitter. He's a much better option than Castro. While it's remote, they may now lose him. Even if not, the team would be best served continuing to get Luplow MLB PAs, while Stevenson just needs to run, which can be in AAA or MLB.
  11. Minny505
    I was watching the Rays broadcast. So...maybe🤷‍♂️
  12. Minny505
    Every fanbase thinks their bullpen is some form of bad. I guess I would compare the Twins to the other 29 teams are rate it on that. By that measure, the Twins BP is 16th in MLB in ERA and 20th in FIP. They have essentially an average-ish BP. At wort a tick below. Far from bad. Compared to other playoff teams though, they are one of the worst. Of the 12 teams in a playoff spot today, they rank 10th in ERA. But it's okay. We held onto Matt Canterino for next year rather than trade him away to get a good RP on an expiring contract. I hear trading him away would have been devestating to the team's future.
  13. Minny505
    Did anyone else think Castro got jobbed on that hit-by-pitch? I saw the replay and assumed he would be awarded first base when the ball grazed his hand. It seemed obvious.
  14. Minny505
    If this is going to happen, it likely happens after his next start. Ober essentially takes Maeda's spot in the rotation for his final two scheduled starts and he comes out of the bullpen 3-4 times in the final 10 or so games.
  15. Minny505
    I'm pretty sure his frustration with being moved to the bullpen in LA entirely coincided with the move putting him just a few innings short of contract bonuses, denying him millions more in earnings. I'd be upset too. This year, that's not an issue. If those incentives were really his only gripe, he will have no gripe.
  16. Minny505
    Trading away our 17th best prospect for a good RP is not, in any way, going to deplete the prospect pipeline. Why do so many people believe it takes a top 10, or even 5, prospect to get a good RP at the deadline?
  17. Minny505
    And Randy Dobnak🤫
  18. Minny505
    Buxton or Stevenson will likely make the roster as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. If Buxton is able to go, I'll take him. He's a half a step faster with offensive potential if his spot comes back up. He doesn't need to have a starting role.
  19. Minny505
    WAR is a mathematical equation that treats all players and their inputs equally. In that way it is objective. How each of those inputs are weighted against each other is completely subjective though, which is how you end up with 2 (really 3 if you include Baseball Prospectus) different results for WAR. That said, each different WAR equation for individual players come to roughly the same value about 98% of the time for hitters. As @mikelink45 posted above, fWAR and bWAR are in near lockstep all the way down the list of Twins hitters. On the pitching side, it is quite different. The two most prominent WAR models agree on Sonny Gray. Then they diverge rather wildly. fWAR values Ryan and Lopez more than bWAR. fWAR also values Duran and Jax as having provided roughly equal value, while bWAR values Duran=Ryan and Jax=Mahle. As you can see, those pitcher values are incredibly different. According to fWAR, Jax is the most valuable RP the Twins have, while bWAR regards him as a fungible reliever.
  20. Minny505
    They essentially value offense the same. The difference, for the most part, is due to the metrics they use for defense. Regardless, they are generally quite close. On the pitching side, they are vastly different. fWAR tries to capture how the pitcher performed, independent of their defense or sequencing of events. Meanwhile, bWAR attempts to calculate the actual value of the true outcomes of that performance. Does that make sense?
  21. Minny505
    Incredibly SSS, but Correa has looked better at the plate since being moved to the 5 hole. Might be a hot streak, but it might be, and looks like, a change in approach. Some players are strange about lineup spot. Back in May, future HOFer Juan Soto commented that he takes an approach in the 2 hole that has the purpose of moving runners over, and his numbers certainly were that of a good, but not legendary, baseball player while batting 2nd. A couple games later he got moved to 3rd in the lineup and has been on a tear ever since. It may not make sense to us, but perhaps putting Correa in a lineup spot that better suits him is just what he needs.
  22. Minny505
    Are you referencing Fangraphs methodology or Baseball Savant?
  23. Minny505
    Both the Tigers and Guardians have good, young pitching, but the offenses are both a few bats away from competing. The Tigers have Cabrera coming off the books and that may make them a player in FA once again.
  24. Minny505
    I think you are incredibly close on the numbers. Using the Eovaldi contract from the 22/23 offseason as a comp, Gray will have a shockingly similar 3 year run, but will be a year older and will be coming off a better season into FA. I would normally say he is likely in line for something like 3/60, but with the derth of FA SP talent this upcoming offseason, his price likely bets bid up to 3/70ish with a vesting option.
  25. Minny505
    Agreed. I expected the Guards to greg Giolitto as they have stated all their rookie pitchers are on strict innings limits. But I would not be surprised if they didn't claim the RPs until after the game yesterday, which was the slight crack in the door they needed to make a mad dash for daylight.
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