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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    What if I just download the MLB app on my kids's phones instead and they listen to the radio broadcast thru that? I'll see myself out...
  2. Minny505
    I don't think 1/20 will get it done regardless. Maybe 1/25. And any contract he signs (sort of) has a team option built-in with the QO.
  3. Minny505
    Seems like Twins Daily members are going to be floored when Giolito signs a deal for an AAV that is just a few million less than what Sonny Gray gets. I would guess that the fanbase seeing the Twins largely handle the former Cy Young contender so many times over the years has caused some freezer burn on their view of his value.
  4. Minny505
    Ryu and Maeda are both mid-rotation guys. No thank you. Paxton is a top-rotation guy, but hasn't had a healthy season...ever? No thank you. Gray would be great, but there are deeper-pocketed teams that will sign him. They'd need a Correa-like series of events to get him back. I still think the SP the Twins add is thru trade. Mitch Keller maybe? Another Marlins deal? Reid Detmers? Tyler Glasnow? All those, no matter how unlikely, seem more likely than any of the SPs listed here. I could definitely see them adding Pham. If the Twins add any non-RP player in FA at all, I would put heavy odds on that player being a RHH OFer on a 1yr contract. Pham fits the bill. As does Taylor. Both smashed LHP in 2023 with a solid track record over their respective careers.
  5. Minny505
    I would guess it's because he played for more than a decade at a high level after the suspension. Tatis, Polanco, and many others are in the same boat. Compare that to a modern player like Cano, who was busted near the end. Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, A-Rod, Clemons, etc. They were all busted near the end. Those last 3-5 years dominate the memories of most players and their careers.
  6. Minny505
    Many MLB orgs have a team of hitting coaches at the MLB level. It's certainly worth offering Cruz a position as an Assistant Hitting Coach.
  7. Minny505
    Impressive
  8. Minny505
    Agreed. I'd stay in-house. A mix of Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Austin. Castro and Gordon make an average-defense, good-bat platoon. If they are dead set on going outside the org, Harrison Bader makes the most sense. He is 4 years younger. He is Taylor's equal on defense, if not his superior. He's also Taylor's superior on offense while striking out literally half as much. Bader's flaw is staying healthy. Both Buxton and Bader can be counted on for about 80 games each, making them a perfect pairing for a 162 game season😜
  9. Minny505
    We have Farmer under contract at a reasonable cost. He had a better OPS against LHP in 2023, as well as for their respective careers. Farmer is also younger and a far better defender with more versatility. Next question.
  10. Minny505
    @DJL44 said last year. Last year is 2022. I don't think anyone would argue Correa played up to his contract value in 2023, including Correa himself. His playoff performance is a big part of why he was signed though and he delivered there.
  11. Minny505
    Unless it's a payroll crunch, or the Twins get obvious excess value in a trade, keep him. His fit is so perfect on this team. He's a top-shelf reserve IFer, who can platoon with Kirillof and Julien. He hit LHP really well last season and for his career (both better than Solano in every triple slash).
  12. Minny505
    Like you, the video about a Lewis extension did not play when I hit the play button. It played some playoff roster video. That said, he'll be a FA at 29 years old. That's his best shot at a huge payday. I would expect the Twins would need to offer something like a 15/400 contract to get it done. Boras would likely go for that because it sets a precedent for future players to get big guaranteed money early in their careers. I don't think the Twins would do this. Boras is going to dissuade Lewis from signing any pre-FA extension that goes past age 29 (like Correa and any of his clients with big future potential earnings), unless he gets 90% of the potential bag that awaits him locked in now.
  13. Minny505
    Even if Kirilloff is out for all of 2024, I would stick with internal options: Polanco Julien Miranda Farmer Larnach Severino Lee Another 2mil contract for Barrels isn't a terrible idea, but not necessary. He could probably be re-signed in February again after the rest of the roster has shaken out.
  14. Minny505
    He obviously has declining value, though I would never use BA to demonstrate that. OPS+ and his defense are a better gauge. I suspect ZIPs will project him as a 115 OPS+ in 2024 and play about 110 games. That should be good for about 2.5 WAR as a 2B when you roll in his below-average defense. That's still the most valuable middle infielder on the FA market and scarcity artificially raises value. But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on his value. We'll likely never get this settled. I'll be surprised if the team doesn't pick up his option and he is the opening day second baseman for 2024.
  15. Minny505
    I would absolutely hang onto him regardless. He is such a good fit for this team. He hit LHP better than Solano (in every triple slash) and is a far better glove. There are only 4 infielders on the roster that are sure things come opening day 2024: Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Julien. Farmer might be the backup for all spots. He also provides insurance if they trade Polanco. Finally, there is a dearth of FA SSs on the market. Farmer could likely pull in a 2/20 contract because of that. At least 1/12. That means he has surplus value if they decide to trade him instead. Unlike Urshella, I think he brings back a fringe top 15 prospect.
  16. Minny505
    It is incredible how his bad week of games in the playoffs has soured so many on Wallner. It's probably safe to say that he has the 5th highest trade value right now in the Twins entire organization. Lewis Lee Jenkins Julien Wallner Festa
  17. Minny505
    I could not disagree more with letting him walk. If he were to be a FA, he would be far & away the top middle infielder on the market and a Top 15 FA in general. He would almost certainly get something like 3/45, probably more. The team would be foolish to not pick up the option, even if the plan is to trade him. I would estimate he has roughly the same trade value that Sonny Gray had two years ago, due to slightly less value as a player on a more team-friendly contract. Sonny Gray netted the Reds a team's 5-10 ranked prospect. I'd still prefer him back, but a trade for a team's Top 10 prospect makes sense with Kyle Farmer as a RHH IF platoon player (who was better than Solano against LHP in 2023 and for their respective careers).
  18. Minny505
    Is there a place to find a rate breakdown of how outs are made? I'd find this to be fun data to have access to.
  19. Minny505
    This is precisely what I'm talking about. Wallner, with 5 years of team control, has roughly the same value in the trade market as Arraez did a year ago, when he had 3 years of control. A little less. A trade for an SP like (pre-2023)Lopez for Wallner seems feasible, we just probably couldn't get the two prospects thrown in.
  20. Minny505
    Maybe, but doubtful. Gallo came into the league in a lower K% environment and was already K'ing in roughly 36% of his PAs. Wallner's 32% K% is a far cry from that. So is his 12% BB%. He's just not nearly the 3-true-outcomes player Gallo was/is. I think a much better offensive comp would be a future Brandon Belt.
  21. Minny505
    The Mariners were rumored to be dangling an SP at the deadline for an offensive upgrade. They will be looking to add a COF bat this season as their in-house guys, other than Kelenic, all had a much higher K% than Wallner, without anywhere near the production. Wallner, thru 319 PAs in MLB over the last two seasons, has a wRC+ of 135 and will be entering his age 26 season. Of all COFs in MLB in 2023 with min 250 PAs, Wallner had the 6th best wRC+ and xwOBA. You don't think that combination of factors carries a lot of trade value? FWIW, I don't think the Twins should trade him. He may lead the team in OPS in 2024. But I'd be open to the possibility of selling high on him and seeing what he can bring back.
  22. Minny505
    This is what makes reducing Ks so tough. Julien and Wallner are likely to be the two biggest compilers on the 2024 roster. (I'm willing to write off Buxton's K% as a mirage caused by injuries he should not have been playing thru) Do you look to trade one of them? Julien certainly seems to have a skill set that can be effective with less strikeouts. I'm not so sure about Wallner. He has had a huge K% his entire professional career and is likely the reason the FO took so long to promote him to The Show in both 2022 & 2023. The Mariners or Marlins would likely offer up a solid SP with team control for Wallner if we want to entertain the notion.
  23. Minny505
    I do love the description of the top of the strike zone. I always bring that up when a teammate comments about a high strike call in my men's baseball league games. It is quite vague. That said, a standard of measurement can be applied to make it consistent across all players. As for the bottom of the zone, I would disagree with your opinion and say it is rather precise. It's the bottom of the kneecap. Regardless, here a standard of measurement can also be applied to make it consistent across all players. Just as the standard measurement for where the ball crosses the plate is at 8.5" from the front and back. I do also think you are making some silly arguments. A batters stance in the loaded position has very little variation to it. It has to in order to have the repeatable and memorized muscle movements necessary to thrive at the game's highest level. MLB realizes this and is using a rolling average of the last 50 PAs for each player to set the top and bottom of the zone. At least for the AFL. The only real concern is the objective accuracy of an agreed upon strike zone, comparing the results of a human ump vs a "robo" ump. Let's just take it to the point that it will get to one day. When the ASZ is 100% accurate, would you still prefer human umps? Because while the level of accuracy of an ASZ is in question today, one day it will not be. The tech is coming, if it is not here already. It's just a matter of what you prefer.
  24. Minny505
    I can't find the specific article, but Close Call Sports published an analysis regarding the 2019 Atlantic League season where the ASZ was 99.3% accurate. I'm willing to wear the egg on my face if that is not accurate and I used false statistics. Even current studies of human umps rate them between 93.5% and 95%. Once the ASZ hits a 95% accuracy rate, I'd like to have it implemented immediately. If it is already there, it should be done for 2024. If it's not there, then wait until it is. I prefer the most fairly contested game possible. Leave the outcomes to the human players, not the human umps. *I'm rather shocked at how hard this data is to find. You'd think someone could just go to a AAA stadium with barrels of balls, feed them into simulated pitching machines, and report the data. I have no doubt the data exists behind closed doors, similar to all the collected, but unpublished, Statcast data. If I were working at MLB, the only reason I wouldn't want ASZ data published would be because it is more accurate than human umps already and fans would cause an uproar at it not being implemented. If it was less accurate than human umps, then not implementing it is self-evident and publishing that data would quell the masses.
  25. Minny505
    This sounds like the argument against driverless vehicles on the road. Humans experience about 366 collisions per 100 million miles driven. Robo drivers experience about 9 collisions per 100 million miles driven. I want robo-drivers. It makes for safer roads. Human umps call the zone correct at a 95% rate. That's really good. You know what's better? 98%. That's what the ASZ can achieve right about now. In a few years, it will likely be 99.9%. By 2030, it will literally be infallible. I want that. It makes for a more entertaining competition. Yet the anti-progress crowd argues against a statistically more accurate outcome.
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