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Wizard11

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Everything posted by Wizard11

  1. Wizard11
    Canterino is out for the year due to TJ surgery
  2. Wizard11
    @Roger, I agree on the net difference to Correa. Unfortunately this is where a conflict of interest comes in with the agent. Boras and Co get 5% of that $65mm delta. No doubt he deemphasized net income and focused Correa more on the greater endorsement possibilities and “winning potential”. I have worked with NFL and NHL players. I have never worked with MLB players as the agents have insulated them from outside sources of input from the beginning of their professional careers. The best agents do bring impressive resources but their guidance is influenced by their own agendas.
  3. Wizard11
    Hi Roger, yes that is still how it works. You essentially pay income tax on 100% of your income in your home state. Correa will also pay state income tax prorata in the 20 or so other states he earns income in. This total sum is then a deduction from his CA tax. The problem with making LT residence decisions based on state tax law is that tax laws are written in water. For example FA’s that signed LT with a CA team in 2015 were probably shocked the next year when CA’s top bracket went way up AND that is was no longer federally deductible. Their $200,000 per year property tax on their mansion was essentially no longer deductible. In 2016 when their spouse became disillusioned with the reducing spend budget and divorced said player, the alimony was no longer deductible. Tax rules are ever changing particularly for the highest paid employees. Moreover they are W2 so no hiding of income in a 1099 structure
  4. Wizard11
    A number of fans have listed their view of the 4-5 free agents we should still sign. Given that the roster is already at 40 who exactly gets dropped to accommodate Andrus, Eovalvdi, Duval, Mancini, Roger’s, etc? At this point in the season each FA nudges someone out. We still have not heard who will lose their roster spot for the Gallo signing. I would guess barring a trade it will be Contreras. After the Judge and Turner signings the Twins should have been able to realize the market had spoke and that plan A was highly improbable. Even most fans could see that. That was the moment to rapidly pivot and pursue other free market talent. I have been amused by the notion that the FO and ownership were “pretending” to chase Correa only as a PR move. If that is the case they clearly suck at PR. Keep Pagan, Sign Gallo, trade Arraez? PR? They are lousy at it.
  5. Wizard11
  6. Wizard11
  7. Wizard11
    The caveat to every hopeful Twins projection is “if they are healthy”. The fan in me wants to believe that Mahle, Maeda, Lewis, Buxton, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Polanco, Arraez, Alcala, etc. are all healthy. The problem the logical part of me struggles with the question “When was the last time any team had this number of injured players all return to peak performance?”.
  8. Wizard11
    As a SD resident my take is that the Padres would be more likely to trade Tatis than Kim. It sounds crazy but at this time Tatis is loathed locally and the Padres are well past their comfort level on payroll. Kim is loved by local fans for his all out effort and cheerful attitude. I don’t think either will be traded though.
  9. Wizard11
    I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that the second comment on this thread found a way to bash this signing. TD comment section has become a real downer. To the haters I would kindly request that you save it for things that have actually occurred. It is hard to understand the need to register a potential “I told you so”.
  10. Wizard11
    No one gets dropped from the 40 man. They had an open spot.
  11. Wizard11
    Hmmm… I suspect if Severino's 2022 #s were actually 344/.401/.572 (.973) with 32 doubles, 30 home runs, and 94 RBI that we would have protected him. Unfortunately he was not even close to that good.
  12. Wizard11
    I am bemused by the idea that our “cheap” ownership just needs to pay the market rate to get Rodon. In all likelihood there are at least 7 teams willing to pay 5/125 or whatever the “market” value is. Given the number of choices this year for Rodon why exactly does he choose the Twins? We have been sub .500 the past 2 seasons and MN does not exactly offer a balmy climate nor is tax friendly to top earners . The top free agent pitchers always have a number of choices for top dollar.
  13. Wizard11
    The trade was a clear win for the Twins thru any reasonable lens. I know it just kills some fans to say anything good about this FO. This FO has made their share of sketchy moves. This was not one of them. Without a bias of finding fault with everything “FO”, it is pretty hard not to see this trade as a win.
  14. Wizard11
    I am grateful for what Smeltzer gave us this year. I think the FO made the right call. There was little evidence that he should take up a 40 man roster spot. There certainly are arguably others on the 40 man that should be dropped but that does not create a very compelling argument to keep Smeltzer. I wish him the best on his next stop.
  15. Wizard11
    So very interesting that numbers 24, 28, and 30 are the most successful from that class. It made me go back and look at who is in those spots now. MLB has those as Cole Sands, Steve Cruz, and Jake Rucker. It feels almost impossible that those three could possibly be our most successful grads from 2022 in 2027. I guess you never know…
  16. Wizard11
    I have to wonder how the rest of the roster that played with Pagan this year would feel about him coming back? Twins players watched him play a huge role in tanking their season. What is the message to them if he is still wearing a Twins uniform next year? To me his “potential” is not worth the ill will that would occur for players and fans. Their seems to an institutional fear for the Twins and some fans that they may let a player go who thrives elsewhere (aka Ortiz Syndrome). Yet every team has this happen to some extent. Their will be plenty of other over 30 relievers available without the dark team history of Pagan. Move on already.
  17. Wizard11
    To answer the question posed I would say the obvious answer is WIN. Call this point #1. IMO most fans would get excited and support a winning team. A small percentage would believe every win was luck and every loss was Rocco’s fault. To be clear I am not advocating for Rocco or the FO. The early pulling of starting pitchers suggests a lack of situational awareness and mathematics. If your rested starter is possibly at risk of getting hit hard the third time thru the order vs replacing them with a overused, exhausted reliever perhaps you take the smaller risk of leaving the starter out there another inning. The mathematics reference is regarding starters averaging 4.8 innings. Implicit with this is your bullpen pitches an average of 4.2 innings every game for 162 games. This is without consideration for the 8-10 extra inning games that will likely occur. It would be interesting to see the modeled probabilities of having a championship team with a bullpen that throws 700 or more innings in the regular season. I use the term “modeled” because the extra inning rule change has reduced the length of extra inning games so their is probably not enough historical data to reasonably answer that question. I am not suggesting that heavy bullpen usage can’t work but I am suggesting it is not probable. I realize their are many more possible points of contention than pitching usage but i am using that example as it is probably the most contentious one. I dislike the argument that we should use an approach because “all the other teams are doing it”. Our management team is supposedly compromised of innovators. So back to point #1. Fans are most likely to support your management philosophy and style if it actually works.
  18. Wizard11
    I don’t need to participate in all the dreary complaining as I will have all winter to do that. I guess some want to start early so as to be first in line with their “I told you so’s”. I still cling to the apparently antiquated notion that baseball is fun. Man, what I would give to be able to go back in time and see another Killebrew at bat. Right now I am going to enjoy the ride and personally hope that the Twins win the division, and a round of playoff games. It would be even better if they went all the way to the WS and stuffed it down the throats of the depressing complainers. So yeah, that is what I hope to see. This life goes by so fast. Morse is right..”enjoy the ride”. I will be at the game in Anaheim tomorrow and will be loudly encouraging my favorite team.
  19. Wizard11
    2 months in a row of below .500 performance does not suggest we should be emptying out the farm. This team is more than a good starting pitcher away from being a serious contender. Getting the “participation” trophy of possibly winning the AL Central is a lousy reason to trade good prospects. I was also at the games on Friday and Saturday. Joe Ryan was actually not as bad as the outcome suggests. He did throw 5 meatballs in the center of the strike zone that were not missed by 5 different hitters, however he otherwise had good poise and good stuff. Wearing Twins gear and enthusiastically cheering Buxton’s jack certainly gave the local partisans plenty of material to work with later. Saturday on the other hand was good fun and the Twins players were also having a good time. Sat behind their dugout both nights and their demeanor was radically different between the two nights. Some good pitching by Sonny Gray and a helpfully inert umpire fired the boyz up. I am usually an eternal optimist with the Twins but reality was on display these past 2 months and it is clear that the Twins are 3-4 quality pitchers short of meaningful contention.
  20. Wizard11
    It seems like given the SS uncertainty next year that they would use every opportunity to take a longer look at Palacios. Happy for Soto though. Definitely a feel good story.
  21. Wizard11
    Tangential thought in Miranda. Either Kiriloff or Larnach will be taking that roster spot very soon. Lewis will likely be back in the next couple of weeks
  22. Wizard11
    Although not mentioned getting Larnach back would be a nice boost. IMO, when Correa is activated Lewis needs to head to AAA to practice being a SS. He is most likely our SS FT next year.
  23. Wizard11
    Great piece and superbly written.
  24. Wizard11
    It will be interesting to see who the PTBNL is. The structure of this trade suggests to me that it won’t be a throw-in. The $6.6MM added had to be about something more the average low A ball lottery ticket.
  25. Wizard11
    Paddack’s first 3 seasons look like a lot of high end prospects numbers while they are learning. The raw material here is very good, is 26 years old, and comes with 3 years of control. It would not be surprising to see him at or near the front of our rotation in a year or two. Pagan also has a very good arm and good control with 2 years of team control left. My opinion is that these are both pitchers who need a new environment and more thoughtful coaching. There is a lot to like here. Rogers is the oldest player here and the one at the most risk of injury and is in the decline phase of his career.. He had one year of control left. If he has the good year that so many fans seem to expect he will be $9mm+ Next year. If he doesn’t he could be looking for a job late next winter. Brent Rooker was most likely someone we would have been releasing within 30 days for his roster spot. I rate this a solid win for the Twins
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