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Wizard11

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Everything posted by Wizard11

  1. Wizard11
    There is a great interview with Walker Jenkins on FanGraphs. It gives a nice insight into how he mentally approaches his development
  2. Wizard11
    He still could be traded in the next few weeks. Some teams will lose starters in ST and I suspect the Twins would deal if they get some value back.
  3. Wizard11
    Austin Martin hit 18 doubles in 233 ABs last year. Not sure what you are talking about on that
  4. Wizard11
    Exactly. This may be the regrettable part of signing France.
  5. Wizard11
    There is no conflict here between Miranda (DH) and France (1B). There could be a Bader/Miranda conflict if Baldelli decides Bader is his LF and Larnach is the DH. Similarly with Julien the only likely person that can block him from the roster is Brooks Lee or perhaps Martin. Only 2 of those 3 make the roster.
  6. Wizard11
    Seems like it might be worth letting the guy take a few ST swings before we decide this was a mistake. 27 year old Miranda is not being blocked by anybody but himself. Same with 26 year old Julien. The appetite to pick nits and find “possible” fault with the manager and FO on this website is insatiable. In fairness to TD readers, it is just another clickbait headline and article.
  7. Wizard11
    Nick, A couple observations on your projections. I think it is probable that Stewart starts the season on the IL and Castellanos gets that spot. I also think Martin makes the roster rather than Lee in your scenario. I think Lee is either a starter in MLB or goes to STP to play FT. It seems unlikely to me that they would view Lee as a bench player at this point in his career.
  8. Wizard11
    I love all the folks touting the “good old days” of pitchers going deeper into games and piling up more innings. If you are going to make this comparison it can only be complete if you consider how much harder pitchers throw now. 30 years ago a guy who threw 90 mph was a hard thrower. Now he is a soft tosser. There have been so many studies of the correlation of velocity, the resulting higher torque, and the greater incidents of serious arm injuries. Expecting the same number of “old time ace” innings from a starter at modern velocities is ridiculous. This is without even addressing the overwhelming data indicating the greatly reduced effectiveness of third and fourth times thru a lineup. Old school pitchers did not have to face batters armed with anywhere near the amount of real time info that today’s hitters have. The speed of adjustments in today’s game greatly eclipses that of 30 years ago. The game has evolved. The 80’s and 90’s “Tom Kelly” baseball is gone because it doesn’t work any more except in the imagination of fans stuck in the past.
  9. Wizard11
    Seth, Thanks for the positive and fun content. I always appreciate your upbeat approach to sharing your extensive knowledge and insight on the Twins.
  10. Wizard11
    Amen to this! I miss when this site was about baseball. It has become harder and harder to read the comments section. So much bloviation about roster construction and managerial decisions. There used to be a wealth of really insightful articles as well as very insightful commenters. Now it seems more and more to be clickbait articles and an obligatory troll fest. No surprise that traffic on here is way down. It gets depressing to read the endless tripe about the FO and manager.
  11. Wizard11
    Hmmm….It looks like Minor league signing of a 32 year old journeyman hitter. I don’t recall Falvey and Co. ever handing an opening day roster spot to such a player (emphasis minor league signing). I am curious if the Dark Trolls Of Twins Daily (DTOTD) will ever be sated by the endless Kvetching about Falvey and Baldelli? I suspect Nick could write a reverse article saying how the Twins did not sign a 32 year old minor leaguer today and the DTOTD would be out baying about the terrible FO and manager doing nothing. I have my own wild speculation. I think that Falvey and Baldelli are probably smart people who care about the Twins and strongly desire the team to be really good. I know that probably sounds crazy but it could be true.
  12. Wizard11
    I think a more interesting analysis would be a look at all the trades that Falvey has made. Wins such as Pablo and Joe Ryan, as well as clunkers like Tyler Mahle. It seems like all conversations around the trading history start with using particular parameters to shade the perception in defense of a pro or con bias. I am amused by the commenter who attached importance to whether or not the trade was initiated by Falvey. An unknowable element of zero relevance. Yes, let’s grade the FO on who first made the phone call. 🙄
  13. Wizard11
    I am hopeful with Raya but I can’t help thinking that a lot of minor league starters would look pretty good if they knew they only had to throw 60 pitches and not go 3 times thru the order.
  14. Wizard11
    There seems to be some heavy discounting of the value of Chris Paddack. $7.5mm is not a bad price for a 4th starter. It would not be atypical for a pitcher in his 2nd season after TJ surgery to pitch well. Paddack when healthy still has good stuff. I mention this in an Andrew Morris article as he is at this point a prospect who is and should be no more than option 8 or 9 on the SP depth chart. We all hope Morris as well as Festa, Matthews, and Raya emerge as legit SPs but IMO it is a bit early to jettison a vet like Paddack especially when his perceived value is low.
  15. Wizard11
    @ Dr Gast….Your narrative is Falvey didn’t want Buxton but the Pohlads made him sign him?…any particular evidence for this?
  16. Wizard11
    Not sure where you came up with these numbers. Fairly amusing that 9 people gave a thumbs up for a patently false post . Buxton played in 102 games, Correa in 86, and Lewis in 82.
  17. Wizard11
    I think he has a side bet with Miranda on who can chase the most out of zone pitches in September. Looks to be a tight one
  18. Wizard11
    Royce does need to learn to discuss his thoughts with coaches, veteran players, teammates, his parents or just about anyone without a microphone. His immature and childless comments on playing 2B (“we have lots of other 2B’s”, “it’s not ST or AAA”), “never slumping”, “ice cream veins”, the many complaints about the organization holding him back too long on rehabs etc. That clubhouse is full of men who have had to make position changes, were no longer the stars of their teams, and had to learn to process their emotions without using the media. How does he think Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Willi Castro, or Kyle Farmer feel about his comments? All of them are arguably better fielding 3B. (Apparently we have a lot of those too). It sounds like they are supposed to eff off and stand somewhere else because the superstar is here even if he hasn’t earned it with better fielding performance.. Give me what I want or I will embarrass you by whining to the media. Bet that goes down well in the clubhouse. The point is not that Royce Lewis should or shouldn’t play 3B. This post is about his immature approach to communication. Just want to clarify that for a couple of spin doctors.
  19. Wizard11
    Just about our whole lineup is kids. Look up the ages for Castro, Julien, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Miranda, Martin, and Jeffers. This is most of our active position player list. Exactly how much younger do you think they should get? Keirsey and Helman are older Players. Kyle Farmer is not holding anybody back and is one of the last experienced voices left in the club house. His 10 ABs per week handed to someone making their MLB debut in a pennant race is Not going to be a game changer. They are going to win or lose with the personnel they currently have.
  20. Wizard11
    Kind of wonder if Buxton for 2 or 3 games a week wouldn’t be more valuable right now than carrying Eddie Julian. We do have an abundance of players who can play 2B with Castro, Martin, Farmer, Lewis, Lee, and Helman. It would be an easy active roster spot to create and potentially get a little more outfield coverage assuming Buxton can handle a couple of games per week. He may not be rehabbed to a multiple game level but perhaps at the part time level which would still have value on this roster. It seems like a low risk endeavor to me.
  21. Wizard11
    I wonder how Jarret Whorff felt about his “promotion” from Wichita to Fort Myers? 🤔🤭
  22. Wizard11
    The Rocco haters seem to dismiss the Twins wins as being in spite of him but all of the Twins losses are his fault. Yet he is the winningest manager we have had in over 40 years. winning %’s for Kelly .478, Gardenhire .507, Molitor .471, Baldelli .535. That is a massive improvement over previous decades of futility. Yeah, he sucks 🤔
  23. Wizard11
    Any starter we trade for at this point would likely get at most 11 regular season starts. The hypothetical variability of impact on our season between Flaherty and Festa is probably at most +1 game. The predominant reason to trade for any starter now is for their ability to match up better in the post season than one of our current starters that they would displace. The other logical reason would be to get a cost controlled starter for 2025 and beyond. There is no reason to trade for any starting pitcher unless they can meet one of these 2 criteria. My .02
  24. Wizard11
    Travis Lee was not drafted by this front office which is the basis of the article. I also find this piece to be clickbait. Pretty lame. This front office did use high picks on Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins just to name 3 easy ones.
  25. Wizard11
    In addition to the many insightful comments I considered the following. One tangential issue I was struck by as I read thru comments…. The Twins effectively had a $133M payroll last year if you subtract the unforced errors of Gallo $11M and Vázquez $10M. Ownership may have looked at the rather dismal FO history with middle market FA signings and said no mas`. Last years complementary player acquisitions were largely successful as well as typical of this FO. Farmer and Taylor as trades, Castro via waivers, and Solano from the bargain bin of FAs. Falvine seems to be fairly good at finding excess value in these channels. They have also been fairly successful in most of their major trades such as Odorizzi, Maeda, Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and probably Paddock and Pagan to name a few. Mahle stands out as an exception. They have a good record with finding future major leaguers in the draft and International free agency. Mid and upper market FA spending has brought them “gems” like Gallo, Vazquez, Bundy, Colome, and Odorizzi on a qualifying offer just to name a few. Their 2 mega contracts have been Correa and Buxton which have not been disasters but would be stretch to call successful thus far. It would not have been unreasonable for the Pohlads to take stock of their FO and simply directed them to stick to their core skills rather than blow $15-$25M per winter on ineffective FAs. This not articulated as well as I would have liked but hopefully conveys the point
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