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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    What doubters?
  2. twinstalker
    ??? Amick makes it with nobody. He's 22 with a 26.1% K rate at A+. This won't go anywhere, and no other team will improve the issue. One thing I've found is that players are who they are. I hated the pick, and he hasn't disappointed. As for any pitcher, I'd bet on the Twins over an average team.
  3. twinstalker
    I think if we randomly chose a player out of the couple thousand available to be drafted and forced the Twins to draft him in the first round, we'd lose our heads and consider him a good prospect. Because, after all, he's a first-rounder.
  4. twinstalker
    There's only Jenkins, and he's independent of most of the mess going forward. There are some pitchers who are clearly not ready. There are a bunch of hitters who will not be anything ever, and a couple where the jury is still out. Basically, there is only Jenkins, who's coming up no matter what happens next year (barring injury). Nothing to clamor for
  5. twinstalker
    Buxton (for a while), Keaschall, and Jenkins. Given that the rest of the Twins will not be good, in essence Keaschall will be the first, second, or third best hitter, so...yes.
  6. twinstalker
    No. Cannot count on Clemens. Doesn't mean he couldn't put up another season close to this, but counting on it would be ignoring logic and probability.
  7. twinstalker
    It is not difficult to put up big numbers in St. Paul, as should be obvious with 1, 2, ad 3 all being Saints. But lets see if we can rule them out from contributing to the Twins: 3. Jhonny Pereda -- age 29 season, too old, esp at catcher 2. Kyler Fedko -- all his stats are average to mediocre while being too old for his levels, K rate too high for his profile, level, age vs level. 1. Kala'i Rosario -- 28% K rate, can basically rule him out. One speck of hope would be his his numbers and K rate are much better vs lhp. But I think his defense precludes that being enough to play him. He appears to be Yunior Severino. Without this info, a person could get the idea that Twins "prospects" suddenly suck when they reach MLB.
  8. twinstalker
    In terms of who had the best results, the best line is Francisco's. This is because he did best with the things he could control. Hits are often the result of luck. Given that he struck out the most hitters (K/9), didn't give up a run, and walked only two, there's your reliever of the month. Which is meaningless for so many different reasons. Francisco is 24 at low A. The two guys you placed ahead of him are 25. Relievers don't make the majors, except in the rarest of circumstances. Relief outings, random or correlated, will allow a nothing pitcher to have a good month by chance. More than one nothing pitcher will have good numbers for a month. There are fifty relievers in the system, probably, and none of them are good enough to make the majors, yet by chance or because they're too experienced for the league, a few will put up decent numbers. Still, I sort of like this feature.
  9. twinstalker
    Nick, serious (non-biting) question. How do you write an article like this ignoring that Boras is his agent? Falvey jumped in bed with Boras from the beginning, though I'll admit taking anyone but Jenkins would have been stupid. However, he didn't have to take Lewis or sign Correa. Lewis was ranked around 5th consensus-wise, and the Twins took him 1st. That is, they didn't have to take him -- very arguably at the time shouldn't have. Maybe not so much recently, but people and the writers here constantly mentioned Lewis as an extension candidate when there's zero chance. Zero chance because Boras. Boras has an understanding with each of his star players/prospects that he will do whatever he has to to get the player the best contract possible, and the player agrees with this when he signs on, or, frankly, he wouldn't sign on with Boras. Could a Boras client sign an extension to give up his first years of free agency? Sure, but that player is going to be a Yankee, Met, or Dodger, as those extension years are going to be at outlandish prices the Twins or most any team could never afford. More dollars than a projected free agent contract would get him those years, probably. Boras doesn't deal with expected values, he deals only in ceilings. Jenkins needs more minor league seasoning. His power isn't yet developed, he hasn't succeeded at AAA. If the Twins want him for seven years, they will have to wait to call him up. Next year, winning-wise, is lost anyway. Why would you want Jenkins under team control for only five years after a lost season?
  10. twinstalker
    I didn't view Crews as "can't-miss." I viewed him as overrated with a good chance to be mediocre. My ranking of the five was: 1. Langford 2. Skenes 3. Clark 4. Jenkins 5. Wilson Crews I sometimes put 5 when the discussion was simply about the five. Otherwise Crews was somewhere in the second five. Gonzalez I absolutely hated, and there were guesses he was going to be a Twin before the lottery. He won't even make the majors for more than a cup. I did like Schanuel but was warned he probably the next Casey Kotchman.
  11. twinstalker
    I see no competence toward getting proper value back. I don't think the Twins have the ability to trade them and recover. They might, but I think the probability is small. If they're going to do it, now's the time. The Twins won't win next year because no one in power understands hitting. No point in having Lopez and Ryan around, really. Then after next season, their value is diminished greatly, plus they risk injury next year.
  12. twinstalker
    It's really hard: 1. Twins develop their pitchers. They seem to do this well. 2. Twins overhaul from ground zero their hitting development and find someone qualified to oversee this. Haven't addressed. 3. Twins overhaul their drafting, specifically wrt hitting. Haven't addressed. 4. Twins overhaul their Latin scouting. I believe this has been done, to what success I don't know. 5. I am not a fan of Royce Lewis, but I think the managerial things that make a difference are not being addressed. Namely fielding and the attitude toward its importance. Address them. 6. They need help with the analytics. As a statistician/data scientist, I see when they so obviously implement strategies based on "analytics." I also see the fallacies they've fallen prey to. They need someone who understands the theory of probability and statistics to oversee data decisions. Address it.
  13. twinstalker
    Twins have very few hitting prospects if you look at the stats the right way. So minor league success almost always won't translate. Sorry. The other day I list two actual hitting prospects (Jenkins, Keaschall), and a very few others with a chance (Culpepper, Gonzalez, Tait). So expect two and don't be surprised with three. It's a sad situation. Shouldn't be closing your eyes and crossing your fingers; the numbers (K rate) tell the story. High Avg/OBP/Slg is very misleading. Also listed EmRod as someone with a very low chance.
  14. twinstalker
    There's a difference between criminally greedy and inept.
  15. twinstalker
    No relief, almost no hitting, and the possibility of trading Ryan and Lopez. Sure.
  16. twinstalker
    What's left to prove? Everything? Also, I've never considered him a starter, though it's fine to train him starting.
  17. twinstalker
    So many issues with the premise. Here's your answer: PA, K, age, level, Cape Cod league. You should have seen the 1500 word response I actually wrote.
  18. twinstalker
    Easy, unless Montreal is one of the expansion teams. And they appear to be a favorite. I guess they'd put Montreal in the NL East, Pit in NL North, and Cin in NL South. However, if it's Montreal and Nashville both, I guess you put Col in the AL West and Nashville in the AL South. At least Colorado is used to that, somewhat. Geography divisions, with Montreal and Nashville, no AL or NL (this is just for fun, not a suggestion) NE: Mtl, NYY, NYM, Bos MA: Bal, Phi, Was, Pit (or Cin) SE: Atl, TB, Mia, Nas GL: Tor, Detroit, Cle, Cin (or Pit) NC: Min, Mil, ChC, ChW SC: Hou, Tex, StL, KC SW: Ari, SD, LV, Col W: LAD, LAA, SF, Sea It works out pretty damn well, if you ask me. If Portland or SLC is with Montreal W: Sea, Por/SLC, SF, LV SW: LAD, LAA, Ari, SD SC: KC, Col, Hou, Tex GL: Min, Det, Tor, Cle MW: StL, ChC, ChW, Mil SE: Atl, TB, Mia, Cin MA: Was, Bal, Phi, Pit NE: Mtl, NYY, NYM, Bos And if it's Nashville with SLC or Por, Nashvile goes into the SE and Was into NE. If you want MIN in a division with Mil and the Chicago teams, cheer for Mtl and Nas in this Geography-derived set of division.
  19. twinstalker
    No, a naive or ignorant case can be made for Rodriguez. Extreme walk rate is a negative, not a positive. Slugging pct means very little if the K rate is high. It means a guy has power if he can get to it, but the minors K rate will tell you whether he can get to it. Using avg/obp/slg as a guide to projecting MLB success will lead to disappointment. It only matters in the correct context. The Twins have only two prospects who will be quality major leaguers for certain, and those are Jenkins and Keaschall. Culpepper and Tait are maybe's, EmRod is very much a likely no. With seemingly no ability to deveolop hitting, the Twins are kind of screwed unless they can pump out pitching to trade a bit more quickly. But I haven't seen that they understand what hitters to trade for.
  20. twinstalker
    Facing "older" pitchers or batters is what any draftee does. It's not a badge of honor. To even be considered a true prospect, a player should be significantly younger than his league.
  21. twinstalker
    K rate of 22.0% is too high. As a first rounder he should beat up on low A, and that includes K rate. We'll see.
  22. twinstalker
    Right. So in other words...no good.
  23. twinstalker
    Outman has no chance. He's not Wallner. Pitchers will pitch him in the zone all day if they have to. They don't have to. This was by far the most head-scratching trade. Outman has no value for this team. He's a LIDR/PR for a team that's not competing. Essentially, the Twins got no value for Stewart.
  24. twinstalker
    Actually it's pretty clear that Outman can't hit Roden is a question. It's very clear he can hit minor league pitching. Good for him. His minor league predictors for major league success, though, are muddled. Guys who hit in AAA/AA but not the majors are in one of two buckets. Either they strike out a lot or they swing at and hit most everything (Miranda-like). Roden is a true mystery to me. His minors K rate is low, his walk rate is high but not too high (he's not passive). He really hasn't gotten to his very average (or below) power, and MLB pitchers are taking advantage of that. Some hitters just can't handle higher velocities that are common across MLB, and Roden might be that guy. His bat speed looks like it's around 25th-30th %ile Roden's first full-year ball was at age 23, and at 25 he was in the majors. The sheer quickness of that ascent probably means he needs time to adjust. His advanced age suggests maybe he should have adjusted by now, but maybe he needs the offseason. If I had to choose one direction for him, I'd choose that 2026 will be an average season, but it could well be another bad one.
  25. twinstalker
    Fedko and Rosario are organization guys. Fedko could get a cup of coffee due to fielding, running, and trooper status. Gonzalez is more Jose Miranda than we'd like to think, probably better with the bat, but he's a 4th OF rh platoon type who sucks in the OF -- he has a chance to be good, but it's slight. Rosario is nothing, well, he's Yunior Severino.. Meanwhile Emmanuel Rodriguez may glow for a moment, but he's not going to hit in MLB. Jenkins will be great when injury-free. As a Boras client, he will never sign an extension and will need to be traded early, so enjoy the 4-5 years. I don't think the Twins system OF looks very solid after Jenkins.
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