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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. My college model has him as a poor hitter, so we'll see what he does this season, not just these two weeks. I generally have three strata for hitters, and he's in the college draftee at 21 stratum. If he's going to be a good MLB hitter, his K rate will be really low, and he'll move on to AA. He has a low power profile, meaning his K rate will have to be lower than if he had power. So much depends on his exit velocities, but babip is a surrogate for that. If he hits the ball square and hard, he'll of course be a good hitter. His K rate is a surrogate for squaring up. When we get statcast data for A+, we'll see it directly. Generally, I don't care if he can hit at the high A level. He had better be good as a prerequisite. It how the failure is divided up that is important. I didn't like him, and scouts didn't like him prior to the draft. After being confused by DeBarge seemingly defeating my college model the first couple of months last year, I'm determined to let the year play out.
  2. It's not poor vs horrible. It's bottom five vs very worst. And I'm being kind to Kreidler here. Listen, I'm not a big fan of Kyler Fedko, but he's a guy (I think) who can play CF and bat rh and is a very likely a better bat than Kreidler. Outman off the 40, Fedko on and promoted to see what he can do. Do it now while Roden is hurt so you don't have to have that discussion of why Roden-seniority doesn't trump Fedko, even if it's obvious why you'd try it first.
  3. This may be true, but here's the thing: Mick Abel did this last year. He's dominant for a few game and then not. Let it play out before determining that because he wore green underwear, he was destined to pitch well.
  4. I said time and time again, trade Stewart for an outfielder named Hitman. I mean, everything's easy in hindsight, but I swear...Outman was the last name I wanted. Can he pitch?
  5. It makes no sense to do a retrospective on minor league OBP. In the minors, OBP is a consequence of relative passivity, almost always, and the pitchers' lack of control. A guy like Martin might be able to walk because of a "good eye" but the only reason he's walking in MLB, ultimately, is because pitchers are afraid of him. Or noise in an early sample size. There's a pitch recognition, it seems, and that does translate, but right now there's little reason for the pitchers to mess around with him. Throw the ball over the middle and see if he hurts you. Too lazy to do a AAA statcast analysis of Austin Martin, so I won't.
  6. We all know the bullpen is going to give up runs. It's a good thing we can crush teams prior to calling on it. #WS2026
  7. ABS = more walks. So now someone wants even more walks than that? And what happens whein 50% of the ball is in the zone, but it's actually a sliver one way or the other? Should we reset the rule again? This is dumb (the "controversy," that is).
  8. We gave up an injured reliever (a perpetually injured reliever) for Outman. He wouldn't have lasted the winter if I were named king. I do sort of like that Roden's been allowed to play at AAA. I think it possible he put a lot of pressure on himself both making Toronto out of ST last year and again with being traded to the Twins. AAA for a few weeks was the perfect place for him to start and get in a groove.
  9. As I mentioned before and will again...Ellwanger won't be in Fort Myers for long. Guessing Quick will take longer, but as soon as he's gets it together in Fort Myers, he'll be in Iowa, hopefully. Crushing low A hitters doesn't help the best college pitchers, but they need to crush first to move on.
  10. I'm a little hesistant on Lackey, as his summer league work is putrid, and at least in the Cape Cod League, that's with wooden bats. But I think with Cholowsky, Emerson, and Flora, the #3 pick is finally easy for you unless you're really dumb, Twins. Of course, anything can happen to a pitcher, so fingers crossed.
  11. Lebron really, really isn't good. Emerson likely a stud. But we finally are getting Lebron out of the early picks. Why is Lebron a top option when he's been a mess at the plate his whole college career? He hits the fastball. Can you imagine taking Yunior Severino or Kalai Rosario with the #3 pick? Straight ball I hit very much.
  12. Let me guess. You're one of the ones here who just doesn't understand how the Twins ruin their really good prospects when they get to the majors. Predictive information is scary, I know. It's kind of a silly, throw-away article to say, hey, Buxton is not as bad as his basic stats. I mean, he's always like this, sometimes luckier or more on than other times. Nothing's changed with him. I find the most interesting batter right now to be Caratini, and if I were to do an article, it would be on why he seems more like the .300 hitter he is right now than the .245 hitter he is for his career. Caratini's new, and the Twins are .500. The interest may not be there for long! As Twins newbies go, Bell's done well, but Caratini's sort of surprised me. Hint: when you don't strike out and hit the ball in the sweet spot hard, good things often happen, And he's been unlucky. His expected slash line is .372/.414/.515, which I'm guessing doesn't account enough for (lack of) foot speed but is a lot better than his current: .294/.359/.324 I doubt this means we should expect all-star numbers. My guess is he does not have a new swing but rather a swing like most that sometime is working as planned and other times drifts to not being so perfect. But we don't know that, and for now we can dream that it's real, and it's spectacular!
  13. I'll guarantee it was a win for TB. They're on a different level, and giving up a pitcher (and 40 spot) for nothing but a minor prospect is how they're able to operate. Because we can't operate that efficiently, we have to pay the salaries of guys like Odorizzi.
  14. A reminder that Taj Bradley has done this before. It's okay to be hopeful, but it's pretty dumb to think this trade is won. Although, the only way it could really be lost is if there was a better deal to be had for Jax last year or this.
  15. Yeah, this is the worst defense I can remember, and on top of that, this is the slowest team I've ever seen. Somehow I keep cheering for them each night!
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