jorgenswest

He Gone!

Ozzie Guillen would provide the most entertaining post game press conferences. I wouldn't turn off the game until I heard what he had to say.

Thanks for the article. I would be happy with a couple of C prospects with the upside of youth on their side similar to the return for Liriano.

It probably should be added that Dan Turkenkopf has worked in the office of a major league team for the last two seasons. He and Mike Fast were significant contributors to the study. The Tampa Bay Rays hired him. I don't think there is any disagreement on which side of the argument the Rays have taken in this debate.

Glen Perkins talked about Josmil Pinto and his ability to frame pitches. He didn't mention Kurt Suzuki. I guess he wasn't asked. Nor was he asked about Ryan Doumit in previous years. Since 2011 it has been debated about the Twins decision making on catcher and defense. At best, they are waiting to see if the data that has been available for many season has validity. At worst, they are ignorant and that ignorance shows in their roster decisions as well as their development of catchers in the minors. Other teams make it a priority on selecting catchers. In fact, several of the catchers that formerly appeared at the bottom of the lists are no longer catching regularly. Kurt Suzuki still has a regular job. Ben Lindbergh wrote weekly last year. He has done monthly reports this year. Below are a link to his recent report and quotes relevant to the Twins. May's catcher report from Baseball Prospectus http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23780 Thoughts from April's catcher report I am certain there will be discussion of not trusting metrics. Clearly the Twins don't trust this data. Glen Perkins might. The data has now several years behind it and catchers are very consistent in their rankings even after changing teams.

With Santana at SS, a healthy Aaron Hicks is the best option to start in CF today. He will be back.

We have your breakdown of each pick and your thoughts on the Twins. Thank you. What is your draft board 1-5?

At this number of plate appearances, strike out rate, walk rate and possibly ISO have passed the small sample threshold. Those numbers are encouraging given the jump to AA. 2014 15.1%, 11.3%, .190 2013 20.2%, 9.6%, .201 In the last two years, the Twins have moved up some prospects in the second half of a June. It makes sense as it coincides with the A-Ball all star games and signing of some draft picks. The AA all star game is July 16 if they wait that long.

Some of the data is beyond the small sample threshold and has been for a while. Strike out rate walk rate groundball rate fly ball rate The drops in strike out rate and groundball rate is not a good combination. The drop is enough that it can not be explained by league change. The sample is large enough that it can't be explained by bad luck. I hope it is the pitch mix and increased use of his fastball. His slider has always been his most effective pitch. He needs to find that pitch and use it often.

The Twins can afford to pay his arbitration costs. They don't need to buy his decline phase. Go year to year and plan trade high in his free agent year. Let some one else buy the decline.

FIP in particular requires a pretty large sample size to be meaningful as it is homeruns based and home rate needs a large sample size. It probably is not particularly helpful during the season but might give information over a full season when there is a significant difference in ERA. I would think the same about fielding metrics. It certainly is true about any split that is reported. Strike out rate and walk rates don't require large samples. They could be meaningful. I really think we are better off having broadcasters with a skilled eye sharing what they see happening on the field. Leave the stats and the analysis out of the broadcast. They are so easy to misuse due to sample.

Signing decline phase players in hope that they will return to former success keeps the Twins from seeking other options. All of the successful signings listed above were younger than the trio signed this winter. They all came with multiple years of team control. They didn't come with opt out dates that forced the Twins hand with roster decisions. Those signings can not be compared to the signings of the former Twins trio in terms of risk or upside.

With the signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier, comments overwhelmingly went like these below. No risk? No impact on the 40 man roster? Alex Presley Brooks Raley Darin Mastroianni Signing decline phase players (even to minor league contracts) does have a risk. It kept the Twins from seeking other younger solutions. It invests playing time into players with no upside. It costs a few younger players on the 40 man roster who have a better long term shot at being a role player. Everyone wasn't on the no risk side of the conversation.

[SIZE=3]S[FONT=arial]ample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider as reliable. For pitchers, strikeout rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced (BF) and ground ball and fly ball rates stabilize at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off due to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a change in level of minor league and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is perhaps reasonable to assume that K-rate (K%) and ground ball rate (GB%) stabilize earlier than other rates. Looking at the levels: [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Minnesota[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ricky Nolasco [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]134 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]41% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kyle Gibson [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]26.7 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]129 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]12% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kevin Correia [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]33.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]125 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Phil Hughes [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]28 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]121 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Mike Pelfrey [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]119 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]8% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]15% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Samuel Deduno [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30.9 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]83 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]49% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]58% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Anthony Swarzak [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]28.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]69 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]46% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3] [FONT=arial]A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate won’t cut it. Nolasco has seen a significant drop in strikeout rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than when with the Dodgers. With the Twins, he was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders. Maybe the Twins staff took notice: yesterday’s game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs.[/FONT] [/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 565"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][B]Rochester[/B] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]Age [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]Team [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]BF [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2014 K% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2013 K% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2014 GB% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2013 GB% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Kris Johnson [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]29.7 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC/MIN [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]113 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]22% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]17% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]50% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]50% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Alex Meyer [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24.4 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]112 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]31% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]41% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]57% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Scott Diamond [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]27.9 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]105 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]13% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]10% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]35% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]45% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Trevor May [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24.8 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]96 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]32% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]33% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]38% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Logan Darnell [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]25.3 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]88 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]19% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]41% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]49% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Yohan Pino [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30.5 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]85 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]32% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]22% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]35% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Meyer, May and Pino haven’t hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. May’s mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]New Britain[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Taylor Rogers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]117 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]53% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Pat Dean [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]113 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]12% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]40% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Sean Gilmartin [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]99 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]38% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]D.J. Baxendale [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]93 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]47% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]33% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Matt Summers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]76 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]53% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial] Gilmartin’s rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to where he was when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Fort Myers[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Tyler Duffey [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM/NB [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]119 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]15% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]35% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Jose Berrios [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]114 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]39% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]41% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Mason Melotakis [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]94 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]46% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Alex Wimmers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25.6 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]81 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]45% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]26% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Steven Gruver [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]74 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]14% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]54% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Tim Shibuya [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]70 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]69% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial] I expect Berrios’ numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasn’t pitched much either year. Let’s hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Cedar Rapids[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Aaron Slegers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]21.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]116 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]27% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]61% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]60% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ryan Eades [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]114 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]21% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kohl Stewart [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19.7 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]98 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]29% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]49% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]43% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Felix Jorge [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]82 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]29% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]37% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ethan Mildren [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]72 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]65% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Josue Montanez [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]70 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]27% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]14% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]37% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial][SIZE=3] Sleger’s combination of strikeouts and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable. Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch data rates (swing and miss rate and others) stabilize, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events (number of pitches) than batters faced events or ball in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.[/SIZE] [/FONT][/SIZE] View full article

Sample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider. For pitchers, strike out rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced and ground ball and fly ball rate stabilizes at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a step up in classification and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that the 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is reasonable to assume that k-rate and ground ball rate would stabilize earlier than other rates. Looking at the levels [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Minnesota Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Ricky Nolasco 31.5 MIN 134 10% 20% 50% 41% Kyle Gibson 26.7 MIN 129 12% 18% 51% 51% Kevin Correia 33.8 MIN 125 10% 13% 42% 42% Phil Hughes 28 MIN 121 22% 19% 31% 30% Mike Pelfrey 30.4 MIN 119 8% 15% 42% 44% Samuel Deduno 30.9 MIN 83 22% 16% 49% 58% Anthony Swarzak 28.8 MIN 69 10% 18% 46% 44% [/TABLE] A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate won’t cut it. Nolasco has a significant drop in strike out rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than with the Dodgers. He was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders with the Twins. Maybe the Twins staff took notice. Yesterday’s game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 565] Rochester Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Kris Johnson 29.7 ROC/MIN 113 [/TD] 22% 17% 50% 50% Alex Meyer 24.4 ROC 112 31% 30% 41% 57% Scott Diamond 27.9 ROC 105 13% 10% 35% 45% Trevor May 24.8 ROC 96 32% 24% 33% 38% Logan Darnell 25.3 ROC 88 24% 19% 41% 49% Yohan Pino 30.5 ROC 85 32% 22% [TD]30% 35% [/TABLE] Meyer, May and Pino haven’t hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. May’s mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] New Britain Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Taylor Rogers 23.5 NBR 117 22% 16% 42% 53% Pat Dean 25.1 NBR 113 18% 12% 44% 40% Sean Gilmartin 24.1 NBR 99 23% 18% 31% 38% D.J. Baxendale 23.5 NBR 93 13% 18% 47% 33% Matt Summers 24.8 NBR 76 17% 17% 53% 44% [/TABLE] Gilmartin’s rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Fort Myers Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Tyler Duffey 23.5 FTM/NB 119 15% 18% 35% 44% Jose Berrios 20.1 FTM 114 18% 22% 39% 41% Mason Melotakis 23 FTM 94 19% 18% 50% 46% Alex Wimmers 25.6 FTM 81 16% 23% 45% 26% Steven Gruver 25 FTM 74 14% 23% 54% 50% Tim Shibuya 24.8 FTM 70 13% 17% 69% 48% [/TABLE] I would expect Berrios’ numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasn’t pitched much either year. Let’s hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Cedar Rapids Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Aaron Slegers 21.8 CR 116 23% 27% 61% 60% Ryan Eades 22.5 CR 114 21% 19% 31% 48% Kohl Stewart 19.7 CR 98 17% 29% 49% 43% Felix Jorge 20.4 CR 82 17% 29% 37% 48% Ethan Mildren 23 CR 72 25% 19% 65% 51% Josue Montanez 22.4 CR 70 27% 14% 37% 42% [/TABLE] Sleger’s combination of strike outs and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable. Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch level data rates (swing and miss rate) stabilizes, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events than batters faced or balls in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.

I wonder if Drew is better off waiting until June 4. He might believe that his value will be better at that point and he will have multiple teams competing for him. Why sign now? The only way this works is if Boras is in the middle of it and there is certainty he will sign. I am not sure that Boras would play ball. The signing would have to come first and the trust would have to be with the Red Sox. Would it be collusion?

My impressions... Good at bats. Plouffe and Colabello seem to be taking much better at bats this year. Lots of walks. Knocked out Masterson in less than 4 innings. Fien, Burton and Perkins did well. Some key double plays. Going home following a .500 road trip. Took a road series from a playoff team. I enjoyed the the first week. Good to have baseball back.

I think you are right about Chicago. They didn't have young talent near ready so they went out and acquired it. Seems like the Twins are in a similar space. While they may have expected Sano and Meyer to play this year, they still have several other spots to fill. They chose veterans. The White chose the upside of youth. Both teams don't look very good this year. If the White Sox develop two players out of those 7, they will be two players better off.

The contrast in rebuild between the a White a Sox and Twins is shown in the acquisition of 27 and under players since last opening day. White Sox Adam Eaton Adrian Nieto Avisail Garcia Jose Abreau Leary Garcia Maikel Clato Conor Gilaspie almost makes the list. He was acquired last spring training. Twins Phil Hughes (actually it is his age 28 season and he is older than any of the White Sox 7) There has been an argument that the Twins can't go young because they don't gave any young players. Maybe they need to go out and acquire them. Maybe they need to let Willingham go and create the need for an Adam Eaton. Maybe they need to deal a Perkins to get a young talent like Avisail Garcia. It has been said that it can't hurt to sign guys like Bartlett, Kubel and Guerrier. Maybe it does hurt. Maybe it keeps the Twins from looking for younger options. Teams need young players to rebuild. The Twins enter this season with 14 players in their 30s. I don't know if it is an opening day record for them. I do know that only the 1991 Twins ended the season having played more players in their 30s. They played 15. They weren't rebuilding. They were going for it with a core that was getting older. What are these Twins doing?

I thought and hoped this would be the year where the Twins would go with youth. I should have known better. The direction for the winter roster construction was made clear when they retained Josh Willingham last August. Earl Battey was the catcher when I first became a young Twin fan. I recall his western oil 8x10 card hanging my wall among other Twin heroes. Those years were great. I didn't know how lucky I was to follow a team that was competitive or at least entertaining every year. There have been several difficult stretches in the 50+ years since. Most difficult were teams that you knew were not going to compete and offered little hope for the future. The late 70s and the 90s were the most difficult until recently. Twice the Twins emerged from those stretches of mediocrity by going with young players. I remember the 1981-82 Twins well. After the trade of Carew in 1978, the Twins tried to hang on with a 1979 team that had 9 players in their 30s over the course of the season. They were mediocre and you knew they weren't getting better. They flipped the roster and had only two players in their 30s in 1981 and 1982. Ron Washington was 30 and had 470 plate appearances. The other was 30 year old Fernando Arroyo who pitched all of 13.2 innings. While they were awful, the young players also gave hope for the future. The foundation for the good run from 1987-1992 was set in the early 80s. The next tough stretch ran from 1993-1998. In 1998 they entered the season with one of their oldest roster in team history. The 11 players in their 30s on the roster that year accounted for 2348 plate appearances and 484 innings. They reversed course in 1999 rostering just 5 players in their 30s accounting for 881 plate appearances and 196 innings. They stayed that same course in 2000 with similar numbers. Those teams set the foundation for the next successful run in the 2000s. While the 1981-82 and 1999-00 teams had a very poor record, they are among my favorite. They offered the hope of young players getting better. A good game is a glimpse of a future from a Gary Gaetti rather than a memory of a past from a Josh Willingham. Two years ago I wrote about my concern with the Twins entering a cycle of mediocrity with their roster decisions. In truth they would have to improve to become mediocre. Last year, a similar article about projections of their aging offense. They ended the year with their second oldest roster since 1998 and a significant decline in offense. This year the Twins start the season with 14 players in their 30s. That must be an opening day record for them. I continue to wait for the shift in direction. The setting of a new foundation. Perhaps it will come next year. A signal of hope for the future. If not, this article will be written again next year as it has the previous two.

He was a top 100 prospect that had a reasonable age 23 rookie season. It certainly shouldn't hurt his status. While shopping him, they aren't going to give him away. He will get a good return. He can probably return a similarly ranked starting pitcher prospect or catcher or centerfielder. Alex Meyer is in that neighborhood. If they are worried Montero won't bounce back, maybe Josmil Pinto would be a fit. What of the Twins gave them the choice of any two pitching prospects not named Meyer or Stewart (who can't be traded yet)? Would you make that move?

There seems to be conflicting reports on Guerrier and velocity. It could be different guns. Others have said he has tops out at 89. That is very different from 92-93.

Great work!